NERC History, Mission and Current Issues Southern States Energy Board. October 16, 2011

Transcription

1 NERC History, Mission and Current Issues Southern States Energy Board October 16, 2011

2 Electricity Vital to America 2 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

3 Risk Curve with Actual Events Severity ( Log Base 10) 2003 Eastern Interconnection Blackout 1996 Western August Quebec Solar Flare 2008 South Florida 2007 August 4 Disturbance 2007 August 25 Disturbance HILF Events Less Severe Events T loss =4 circuits G loss =5 units Preliminary Results NOT FOR CITATION Cumulative Normalized Occurrences/Year 3 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

4 About NERC International regulatory authority for electric reliability in North America Develop & enforce reliability standards Analyze system outages and near-misses, recommend improved practices Assess current and future reliability Promote cyber and physical security 4 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

5 NERC Structure and Regional Entities Independent board FERC oversight and participation Members committee Regional entities 5 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

6 NERC Programs Standards Compliance monitoring and enforcement Event analysis and inves7ga7ons Training and educa7on Reliability assessment and performance metrics Cri7cal infrastructure protec7on 6 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

7 Cybersecurity Nine mandatory critical infrastructure protection standards Electricity Subsector Coordinating Council (ESCC) Electricity Sector-Information Sharing & Analysis Center Bi-directional information sharing and government coordination Security analysis and metrics development Secure communications Security alerts: VPN vulnerability Aurora Stuxnet Night Dragon Geo-magnetic disturbances 7 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

8 Cybersecurity Coordinating with DHS, DOD, DOE o CyberStorm III, Grid Security Conference o Industry access to government developed security tools o Risk management guidelines for the electricity sector o Scenarios for better design basis and resilience against emerging threats Current activities o Geomagnetic Disturbance Task Force o Cyber Attack Task Force o Severe Resilience Task Force o Spare Equipment Task Force 8 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

9 Cybersecurity Legislation Congress is looking at several approaches to comprehensive cybersecurity legislation. NERC agrees there is a need for comprehensive federal authority to address cybersecurity emergencies NERC believes we have the authority we need to address vulnerabilities NERC wants to ensure that existing processes for cybersecurity are incorporated in any federal policy contemplated NERC is supportive of any effort to further improve and facilitate information sharing from the federal government to the private sector 9 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

10 FOCUS: High Likelihood, High Consequence Planning to Accommodate Variable Generation Operating Variable Generation Environmental Regulation Likelihood Model Enhancements Critical Infrastructure Protection Increased Gas Generation to Support Variable Generation Years Consequence 10 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY 10

11 NERC Reliability Assessments Peak demand forecasts Resource adequacy Transmission adequacy Key issues and emerging Trends Special assessments Variable genera7on EPA regula7ons Reliability 11 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

12 Highlights The economic recession and demand-side management leads to higher Planning Reserve Margins Unprecedented change in the generation fuel mix is projected during the next ten years, Increases in gas-fired, wind, solar, and nuclear generation Bulk transmission development begins to take shape Cross-industry communication and coordination is key to successful planning and operations 12 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

13 Projected Reserve Margins MRO-US WECC-CAN 2016/2017 (Winter) NWPP (Winter) MRO-CAN (Winter) Ontario 2015/>2019 Quebec (Winter) Maritimes (Winter) New England 2018/>2019 New York Basin RFC RMPA VACAR 2019/>2019 Cal N TRE Central 2018/2019 Cal S SPP Delta Southeastern Desert DW TRE 2015/>2019 Gateway FRCC Year when Reserve Margin (RM) drops below NERC Reference Margin Level: Anticipated RM / Adjusted Potential RM 13 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

14 Special Assessments EPA Report October 2010 Iden7fy poten7al outcomes of future EPA Regula7ons Quan7fy poten7al impacts to Planning Reserve Margins Examine unit re7rements triggered Provide results to NERC s stakeholders, industry leaders, policymakers, regulators, public Highlights the affected Regions/Subregions 14 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

15 Scenario Results 60.00% 50.00% Reserve Margin Levels Reserve Margin (%) 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% (APCR) Reserve Margin Reference Case (APCR) Reserve Margin Moderate Case (APCR) Reserve Margin Strict Case NERC Reference Level 15 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

16 Recommendations Regulators Consider pace and aggressiveness of regulation timing and impacts to the bulk power system Industry Employ tools to mitigate potential issues NERC Further assess the implications of regulations as greater certainty emerges around industry obligations, technologies, timelines, and targets LTRA incremental update November RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY