Current understanding of the problem

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1 Infrastructure resilience a wicked problem requiring new innovation? Ben Kidd, project manager, CIRIA, and lead of the MBE KTN infrastructure programme, highlights new research and technologies that aim to solve the complex problem of infrastructure asset (and systems) management, resilience and adaptation to climate change How resilient is the UK s A wicked problem critical infrastructure? The transport and utilities infrastructure that underpins society is continually evolving to meet society demands and has developed over many centuries into the complex interconnected system of systems that is seen today. While this has helped to develop societal, economic, and in some cases, ecological prosperity it has also introduced dependencies and inherent risk. As seen on numerous occasions in recent history, if one infrastructure sector is at risk, so are the rest. The floods in the UK in 2007, and more recently the events in Australia and Japan, have shown that if the energy supply is disrupted then all other services can be affected, causing a cascade of failure. In previous briefings, work being undertaken by the Government and industry, led by the Cabinet Office and the Defra-led Adapting to Climate Change programme, has been highlighted to determine today s risk to critical infrastructure from natural hazards and the current levels of preparedness for the effects of climate change (Kidd, 2010a and b, Kidd, B and McBain, W, 2010). A recent report on this topic was from the Royal Academy of Engineers on the over-reliance of GPS systems (The Royal Academy of Engineers, 2011), which puts into perspective many discussions on interdependencies between critical national infrastructure assets. With the complexity involved in simply establishing this baseline information of the state of the nation (to coin the ICE phrase), what can actually be done on the ground to improve things? When introducing the Engineering the Future report Infrastructure, engineering and climate change adaptation (The Royal Academy of Engineers, 2011) at a recent ICE workshop, Professor Brian Collins, chief scientist to DfT and BIS, described the problem of managing this complex system of interconnected and interdependent infrastructure assets as a wicked problem. This term, he said, has come from our counterparts in Brisbane, Australia, where he visited recently to find out what they are doing post-flooding. While this term has been used for a while in the world of integrated urban water and drainage management, as highlighted to me by Professor Richard Ashley of the Pennine Water Group, this was perhaps the first time it has been applied to the complex problem of infrastructure systems at a national scale. Prof Brian Collins described the wicked problem as being where the problem is not fully understood until after the formulation of a solution. It has no stopping rule, and the potential solutions to the problem may, by its nature, be novel and unique. In this respect, the problem of designing and managing relatively long-life infrastructure assets to withstand future climatic, social, economic and demographic changes is indeed a wicked problem. Current understanding of the problem The Engineering the Future report (The Royal Academy of Engineers, 2011), together with other reports such as the series of ICE State of the nation reports (ICE, 2003 to present) and guidance by CIRIA (McBain et al, 2010), not to mention Sector Resilience Plans (Cabinet Office, 2010), the Climate Change Risk Assessment (Defra, 2011a) and Departmental Adaptation Reports (Defra, 2011b), provide a good overview of the current situation with respect to infrastructure resilience to natural hazards. However the devil is always in the detail and the main issues affecting infrastructure resilience could be the small ones that go unnoticed in overarching reviews such as those mentioned in this briefing or even in more detailed planning such as through surface water management planning. For instance, a culvert may have multiple owners and interact with a large number of stakeholders in a catchment system. One small change to land use at a local level by a farmer deciding to plough his fields in a different direction can have dramatic consequences on the system in terms of hydraulic and sediment loading. This could then affect the operation of the culvert. So it is easy to see that if this culvert is located in a critical position with vulnerable land uses nearby it could have a cascading effect on the larger scale infrastructure system including those sectors that are interdependent on that particular asset. The fact that this culvert could have multiple owners ultimately makes planning for and management of these scenarios all the more difficult. For this example, guidance by CIRIA (Balkham et al, 2010) gives information on the whole-life management of these important drainage assets as part of the wider catchment system. However, the intricacies and complexity of the problem as well as the number of possible outcomes and stakeholders, means that use of multiple scenario planning at a local level for all future economic, social and environmental 1

2 change is rarely feasible, particularly in the current climate. So what can be done with the small amount of investment available today, to ensure improved resilience in the future? Infrastructure investment for economic growth and recovery InfrastructureUK have published an Implementation plan (HM Treasury and InfrastructureUK, 2011a) to follow up the National Infrastructure Plan 2010 (HM Treasury and InfrastructureUK, 2010a) and are currently developing a National Infrastructure Plan for These reports outline the Government s vision of the infrastructure investment required to support the UK s growth. This link between infrastructure investment and growth was picked up in the World Economic Forum where the UK was classed as being 33rd in the world for infrastructure investment. With a planned 200bn over the next five years, the Government is keen to ensure that infrastructure needs are clearly specified and barriers to achieving investment are identified and overcome. Other reports such as the Infrastructure cost review (HM Treasury, 2010b), the Low carbon construction report (HM Government, 2010) and the Engineering the Future report (The Royal Academy of Engineers, 2011) call for increased innovation in infrastructure delivery, covering both adoption of new technologies and new processes to bring about improved efficiencies, reduce carbon intensity, and maintain levels of performance. The Engineering the Future report states that: if the UK can implement a plan effectively, then there are opportunities for UK industry to meet both national needs and to export products and expertise. Fortunately, a lot of ground work has been done in this area and there is a wave of research and innovative technologies emerging that could help to realise the future sustainable image of the UK s networked Collaborative research and innovation Events such as the heatwave in 2003, the widespread flooding in 2007 and the snow and ice problems in 2009 and 2010 have improved the recognition of interdependencies and complex systems within and between infrastructure sectors. This has then enabled several UK and EU research projects to gain funding that have the potential to help the UK become a world leader in the management of complex infrastructure systems and use of smart systems to monitor performance and health of a particular asset remotely. MBE KTN infrastructure programme started in August 2010 One problem common to each of these initiatives is that of data management. In an age where there is a bombardment of information, what is the best way for an infrastructure asset owner identify its information needs, collect the relevant information, interpret the most important and then deliver a concise summary to those who need it? Many tools are emerging and being tested that aim to help collaboration between infrastructure asset owners and overcome many of the issues around data management and transfer. This is a particularly important area when it comes to the needs of Local Resilience Forums in civil contingency planning, with common obstacles coming from sensitivities of information of commercial and sometimes national security importance. led by CIRIA with a Management Board consisting of representatives of EPSRC, Technology Strategy Board, BIS, Transportation KTN and ICE, and chaired by Tim Embley, Costain identifying innovation needs across the energy, transport, water and telecoms sectors highlighting emerging research and innovation for sustainable and costeffective infrastructure delivery shaping the future research agenda and informing funding competitions from EPSRC, Technology Strategy Board and the EU. Infrastructure Transition Research Consortium started in January 2011 led by Professor Jim Hall, University of Oxford part of the Adaptation and Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARCC) suite of projects aims to analyse complex interdependent infrastructure systems and develop new tools to inform future infrastructure investment Innovation and Knowledge Centre for Smart Infrastructure started in April 2011 led by Professor Robert Mair and Professor Kenichi Soga, University of Cambridge using existing experience in the University on remote monitoring of infrastructure assets aims to develop and commercialise emerging technologies. 2

3 Blackpool Council collaborative online Geographical Resource Platform Like many local authorities, Blackpool had developed a highways asset management plan to manage its highways network. Blackpool s highway network is the Council s largest asset (valued at nearly 500m) and is vital to the functioning of the town. However, the systems that were in place to support the management of the most valuable asset owned by the council, the highways network, were based upon technology-intensive graphical information systems (GIS) and were limiting the way the council could visualise data to make decisions without the need for sophisticated interpretation. To compensate, Blackpool had to rely on local knowledge of the network and on undertaking ad hoc highway inspections to support their annual maintenance plans. Blackpool had invested heavily in several IT systems but constant technical problems and ever increasing support costs from the systems vendors made them unworkable and unsustainable. Without robust management information, highways maintenance and investment decisions at Blackpool were being made based on local knowledge, intuition and often political considerations. Maintenance schemes were not made within the context of any long-term strategic objectives for the whole network. Blackpool had no real understanding of the state of the highways infrastructure and had unreliable evidence to demonstrate whether the network was improving in condition or declining. Figure 1 Screenshot of the GRP system developed by Gaist for Blackpool Council Working with a technology provider, Gaist, the concept of a geographical resource platform (GRP) was identified to be the foundation for the storage of highways asset data and its representation in a mapping context for decision making. A proof of concept system was introduced and was successful by providing to users with no more than standard PC skills a web-based mapping platform for highways assets and associated information. This avoided the need for specialist GIS technology and skills, which liberated the use of geographically-related information on highways assets. The success of the proof of concept system has exceeded expectations and has expanded virally within Blackpool Council to become the platform for representing mapping-referenced information for almost every department in the council, covering customer response, emergency planning, leisure facilities and socio-economic data. Figure 2 Screenshot of the GRP system developed by Gaist for Blackpool Council The new GRP system has been instrumental in Blackpool introducing better approaches to highway maintenance and management of the network by providing decision makers with the information they need to make more informed choices. 3

4 How can the Localism and Big Society agendas be embraced? In parallel to the aim for more integrated (and collaborative) asset management systems, the Localism and Big Society agendas are helping to encourage a wave of community involvement and ownership in problems that were previously left to the local authority to manage. For example, many local and national websites have emerged that allow cyclists to post on a virtual map the exact location of a pothole in a road. This creates a new type of challenge for the local highway engineer who has to the added requirement to be transparent in how the issue has been dealt with. The work being pioneered at Blackpool Council, as well as similar work being undertaken by Royal Haskoning and IBM with Peterborough Council, is changing the way in which data is both collected and managed. In the future, following the Localism and Big Society agendas, there is a possibility that members of the public will be able to help their local council decide on the future investment in However, to get to this point there will need to be a leap of faith for asset owners in terms of sharing data, and the work that Blackpool are currently doing in developing a public facing element of their geographical resource platform is encouraging in this respect. Of course there is always the problem of data accuracy, but given that infrastructure asset owners largely rely on information gleaned from local knowledge or surveying information, is there scope for increased use of what is termed crowd sourcing of information? Where next for innovation in infrastructure? CIRIA, through delivery of the MBE KTN infrastructure programme, are playing a central role in facilitating discussions on the future research and innovation needs for Key challenges facing the industry in embedding innovation into current approaches to infrastructure delivery and management include: Embedding knowledge gained from innovative research a multiple future scenario approach including use of new modelling and analysis tools as well as the probabilistic approach enshrined in the UKCP09 (UKCIP, 2011) projections for future climate scenarios. This probabilistic approach should also be applied to social, economic and demographic change getting involved with projects such as the Infrastructure Transition Research Consortium and the Innovation and Knowledge Centre for Smart Infrastructure to harness the collective UK research base. Multi-discipline and multi-sector collaboration a new generation of engineers with skills to deal with complex infrastructure systems using novel collaborative tools, such as the online geographical mapping platforms emerging on the market, to aid knowledge transfer and decision making. Understanding the complexities of a networked infrastructure creating a better understanding of the desirable and undesirable properties of a networked In the current economic climate overcoming these challenges may be difficult but with the multiple aims to deliver efficient, effective, low-carbon and resilient infrastructure there is significant potential for the UK to harness its well-established research base. The main thing will be to improve business cases for long-term investment in infrastructure, embed existing knowledge and innovation better, remove unnecessary complexity and embrace crowd sourcing of information. A small investment to support and embed emerging technologies today could save an enormous amount of money (not to mention carbon), over the lifetime of an infrastructure asset. The MBE KTN will be holding a showcase event on 7 June 2011 to promote current research and innovation on infrastructure systems. Speakers confirmed include: Ben Kidd, CIRIA and MBE KTN Professor Jim Hall, University of Oxford and head of the ITRC Caroline Batchelor, EPSRC Steve Birdsall, Gaist Professor Richard Ashley, Pennine Water Group James Brayshaw, Ordnance Survey For further details including how to register please contact ben.kidd@ciria.org 4

5 References BALKHAM, M, FOSBEARY, C, KITCHEN, A and RICKARD, C (2010) Culvert design and operation guide, C689, CIRIA, London (ISBN: ) CABINET OFFICE (2010) Sector resilience plan for critical infrastructure 2010, Cabinet Office, London. Go to: DEFRA (2011a) Climate change risk assessment, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, London. Go to: DEFRA (2011b) Departmental adaptation plans, Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, London. Go to: ENGINEERING THE FUTURE (2011) Infrastructure, engineering and climate change adaptation ensuring services in an uncertain future, published on behalf of Engineering the Future by The Royal Academy of Engineering, London (ISBN: ). Go to: HM GOVERNMENT (2010) Low carbon construction, Innovation and Growth Team, Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, London. Go to: HM TREASURY and INFRASTRUCTUREUK (2011a) Implementation plan, HM Treasury, London and InfrastructureUK, Brighton. Go to: HM TREASURY and INFRASTRUCTUREUK (2010a) National infrastructure plan 2010, HM Treasury, London and InfrastructureUK, Brighton (ISBN: ). Go to: HM TREASURY and INFRASTRUCTUREUK (2010b) Infrastructure cost review, HM Treasury, London and InfrastructureUK, Brighton (ISBN: ISBN ). Go to: ICE (2003 to present) State of the nations, Institute of Civil Engineers, London. Go to: KIDD, B (2010a) Adapting the built environment to climate change, CIRIA Briefing, CIRIA, London (August) KIDD, B (2010b) Infrastructure resilience for an uncertain future, Evolution article, CIRIA, London (May) KIDD, B and MCBAIN, W (2010) Critical legacy infrastructure: delivering flood resilience through prioritisation of investment and cross-sector collaboration, CIRIA briefing, CIRIA, London (January). Go to: ID=15413 MCBAIN, W, WILKES, D and RETTER, M (2010) Flood resilience and resistance for critical infrastructure, C688, CIRIA, London (ISBN: ). Go to: THE ROYAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERS (2011) Global navigation space systems: reliance and vulnerabilities (March). Go to: UKCIP (2011) United Kingdom Climate Impact Programme, Oxford University, Oxford. Go to: Useful websites Infrastructure Transition Research Consortium: Innovation and Knowledge Centre for Smart Infrastructure: MBE KTN Infrastructure Programme: World Economic Forum: Note that these briefings are for informational purposes only and any statement, opinion, or view that is not specifically attributed to CIRIA, may not necessarily reflect the views of CIRIA. For further details about CIRIA s standard terms and conditions, and for other information about CIRIA s work please go to: < 5