U.S. Perspectives on an Asian Spaceport

Transcription

1 1 U.S. Perspectives on an Asian Spaceport Japan Space Industry Symposium Tokyo, Japan April 17, 2017 Dr. Scott Pace Space Policy Institute Elliott School of International Affairs George Washington University Washington, D.C. USA

2 Agenda U.S. Space Policy U.S.-Japan Space Cooperation Launch Market Outlook Spaceports Opportunities and Risks in Japan 2

3 3 U.S. National Space Policy (2010) Selected sections: The term commercial, for the purposes of this policy, refers to space goods, services, or activities provided by private sector enterprises that bear a reasonable portion of the investment risk and responsibility for the activity, operate in accordance with typical market-based incentives for controlling cost and optimizing return on investment, and have the legal capacity to offer these goods or services to existing or potential nongovernmental customers. Actively explore the use of inventive, nontraditional arrangements for acquiring commercial space goods and services to meet United States Government requirements, including measures such as public-private partnerships, hosting government capabilities on commercial spacecraft, and purchasing scientific or operational data products from commercial satellite operators in support of government missions Refrain from conducting United States Government space activities that preclude, discourage, or compete with U.S. commercial space activities, unless required by national security or public safety; Ensure that United States Government space technology and infrastructure are made available for commercial use on a reimbursable, noninterference, and equitable basis to the maximum practical extent;

4 National Space Transportation Policy (2013) Space Launch Ranges Enhance the operational efficiency, capacity, responsiveness, and cost effectiveness of Federal space launch infrastructure, including investing in the modernization of current infrastructure to meet evolving space transportation needs and capabilities, and seeking to improve current launch range scheduling procedures and practices; Encourage private sector and state and local government investment and participation in the development, improvement, and sustainment of space infrastructure, including both Federal launch and reentry sites, as well as those operated and maintained by private, state, and local entities; and Provide stable and predictable access to United States Government space launch bases and ranges, and other related government facilities and services, for commercial launch and reentry purposes on a direct-cost basis or other agreed partnership. The United States Government will reserve the right to use such facilities and services on a priority basis to meet national security and critical civil mission requirements. The United States Government shall consider, on a case-by-case basis, requests to launch foreign space launch vehicles in the United States for commercial purposes, including exhibitions and demonstrations. 4

5 5 Third Japan-U.S. Comprehensive Dialogue on Space September 2015 MDA and SSA Contribute to the resiliency of critical space systems Second SSA table top exercise scheduled for 2015 two-way SSA information sharing Collaboration on the use of space for Maritime Domain Awareness Civil space cooperation Earth observation, space science, weather forecasting, and services provided by the U.S. GPS and the Japanese QZSS Strategic and diplomatic significance of the International Space Station and continue cooperative utilization Second International Space Exploration Forum (ISEF) to be hosted by Japan in 2016 or 2017 Multilateral security cooperation International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities. Next meeting: May 2017 Now March 2018? 2013 report of the UN Group of Governmental Experts on TCBMs in Outer Space Activities

6 Updated Japanese Political Rationale for ISS 6

7 Cubesats using the Kibo Launcher 7

8 Aligning US and Japanese Space Interests Dual-use space activities International Space Station From Cold War alliance symbol to symbol of autonomy Maritime Domain Awareness Commercial Remote Sensing applications Global Positioning System and QZSS Governance of Shared Domains UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ASEAN information sharing for MDA Space Situational Awareness Multilateral information sharing UN COPUOS: LTSSA, GGE TCBMS OST Article 6 and new private space activities 8

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10 Commercial Orbital Launches by Market Share, Includes Geosynchronous Orbit and Non-geosynchronous orbits launches that are internationally competed, commercially Federal Aviation sponsored, or FAA-licensed. Since 1989, AST DOT/FAA Commercial has licensed Space 50 launches of U.S. Government February payloads. Administration U.S. total includes U.S.-manufactured vehicles Transportation only. Multinational denotes Sea Launch. Source: FAA January 2017

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12 12 Size of Future Launch Demand Very Uncertain with Uncertain Satcom Markets Mega-constellations High-Throughput Satellites

13 International Orbital Commercial Launch Demand Forecast The 2017 forecast shows an increase to 41 launches per year compared to 30 (16 GSO, 14 NGSO) in the 2015 forecast. GSO market is stable with increase in + 5,400kg satellites. NGSO increase in satellite demand for telecom, ISS resupply, and small remote sensing satellites. Small launch demand was only 1.4 per year in 2015 forecast compared to 6.3 in COMSTAC- Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee GSO- Geosynchronous Orbit NGSO- Nongeosynchronous Orbits Medium-to-Heavy vehicles - more than 2,268 kg (5,000) to incl. Small vehicles - less than 2,268 kilograms (5,000 pounds) to incl. Source: FAA Compendium, January 2017 Prepared by COMSTAC and FAA Federal Aviation Administration Forecasts AST Commercial are Space typically overoptimistic February Transportation

14 Expanding Commercial Capabilities ELVs, Suborbital RLVs, Orbital Systems, Habitats Virgin Galactic Sierra Nevada Corp Boeing Masten Space Systems Blue Origin Orbital Sciences SpaceX Bigelow Aerospace Federal Aviation Administration AST Commercial Space Transportation February

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17 Private Sector Launch Failures Orbital Sciences Antares Orb-3 commercial cargo mission October 28, 2014 SpaceX Falcon 9 CRS-7 commercial cargo mission June 28, 2015 Plus: Soyuz/Progress 59 failure April 28, 2015 Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo Powered Test Flight October 31,

18 18 Launch insurance requirement rises from $13M at LC-40 to $63M at LC-39A. 20-year lease on LC-39A Loss of LC-40 on Sept 1, 2016 due to SpaceX test accident

19 Discussion Topics for a Spaceport in Japan What is the purpose of a spaceport? Profit Security Prestige Local economic development National economic development Government roles Direct support Indirect support Licensing and oversight Export controls/mtcr SSA/Space traffic Demand for Launches Government demand JAXA JMOD Other agencies Private demand Suborbital flights Mega-constellations Human flights Demand for Spaceports Vertical launch Air-launched Reusable vehicles Non-space uses Japanese demand Foreign demand 19

20 20 SWOT Perspective on a New Spaceport Strengths Potential for operational efficiencies over government launch sites Potential attraction of non-government stakeholders and customers Potential national and local political support Weaknesses Low level of assured government demand and high fixed costs Constrained to polar, sun-sync orbits with unclear competitive advantage Lack of local complimentary industries Opportunities Dedicated site for national security launches Stimulation of Japanese space entrepreneurs Diversification of the local economy Space-related tourism and aerospace Threats Highly competitive global market with mobile customers and volatile demand Private investment fails to occur, private providers fail to perform, and site is unused Cultural conflict between government and industry customers