SATELLITE-BASED EARTH OBSERVATION

Transcription

1 2014 BROCHURE SATELLITE-BASED EARTH OBSERVATION Market Prospects to th Edition A Research Report The only source for comprehensive industry analysis & forecasts in the growing EO sector Strategic issues & forecasts detailed value-chain analysis EO data demand Breakdown of application sectors within each region consolidated forecasts per application sector & per region Over 200 pages Over 100 graphs & tables Comprehensive digital files Over 1,000 data points Priced at 5,000 euros 353 Earth observation (EO) satellites are expected to be launched over the next decade, resulting in $36 billion in manufacturing revenues over the period, an 85% increase over the previous decade. Organizations from 41 countries are expected to launch EO satellite capacity by 2023, compared to 33 over the previous decade. Government supply continues to grow strongly as more countries expand their portfolios of EO satellites to meet various policy needs. In addition, newcomers are launching EO satellite capacity to develop a local industrial base, create the building blocks for a space program, obtain greater autonomy in data acquisition, and/or meet local demand for data and services. As a result, investment in EO and meteorology programs reached a high in 2013 at $8.7 billion, a 13% increase over This represents the 8th year of continued investment growth, with EO remaining a primary concern for government space expenditures. Commercial supply is also expected to go through a significant expansion, both from private sector initiatives and government commercialization of proprietary systems. New entrants such as Skybox Imaging have launched their first satellites, and others, particularly in the domain of commercial meteorology and environment monitoring solutions, could follow suit in the next decade. With this expansion in commercial supply, differentiating positions of the operators will come to the fore, with trade-offs in ground resolution, revisit, geolocation accuracy, and data prices. Nevertheless, competition is increasing and with new entrants possibly pricing data and solutions very competitively, there is the potential for disruption in the market. Supply of EO solutions continues to expand and diversify despite an overall slowing of commercial data demand; this slowing is a result of reduced U.S. government defense spending on commercial data compared to previous years. The commercial data market totaled $1.5 billion in 2013; this represents stagnant growth from 2012 as the impact of reduced U.S. government spending takes effect. Satellites launched from emerging programs will account for a growing part of the manufacturing market. Between 2004 and 2013, $1.9 billion of the total EO manufacturing revenues were derived from these programs; this is expected to increase to $4.4 billion between 2014 and Such programs, which may lack proprietary manufacturing solutions, are expected to be a key driver for the upstream industry looking to export solutions.

2 ABOUT \ SATELLITE-BASED EARTH OBSERVATION ABOUT Now in its 7th edition, Satellite-Based Earth Observation, Market Prospects to 2023 is the only report providing industry forecasts, assessment of business opportunities and analysis of the entire value chain for this growing segment of the satellite industry. It includes a detailed breakdown of application sectors within each region along with consolidated forecasts per application sector and per region. ELEMENTS OF THE REPORT INCLUDE: Over 200 pages More than 100 graphs and tables PDF, Excel & PPT Files Over 1,000 data points Executive summary STRATEGIC ISSUES & FORECASTS Current and forecast market situation to 2023, full assessment of challenges, risks and growth drivers Assessment of commercial opportunities including commercial data demand by data typology & sector Assessment of commercial opportunities by satellite manufacturing EO DATA DEMAND Broadened analysis of data demand and requirements: Drivers and risks for growth Opportunities for data & services growth across regions DETAILED VALUE-CHAIN ANALYSIS Assessment of opportunities and challenges across the industry Analysis of government investment, operators, distributors and service providers SATELLITES LAUNCHED & FORECAST Launches from Expected launches through 2023 Satellite imaging characteristics Operator typology Prime manufacturer/launch service provider / uncontracted satellite missions WHO WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS REPORT? Space agencies & other government entities Satellite operators Satellite equipment manufacturers Launch services Satellite service providers Banks & investors APPLICATION \ REGIONAL ANALYSIS Detailed breakdown of application sectors within each region Consolidated forecasts per application sector and per region

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 01\ STRATEGIC ISSUES AND FORECASTS 162 EO SATELLITES LAUNCHED OVER THE LAST DECADE Government programs continue to expand geographically Data requirements vary by application Very high-resolution optical data takes up the majority of sales Difficulties in moving away from government dependencies BALANCING TRADEOFFS THROUGH POLICY AND LAW License terms and conditions Industry seeks relaxed resolution limits, U.S. leads the way Shift to support implementation of large-scale EO projects U.S. FOCUS AS MOST EVOLVED FRAMEWORK 12 U.S. entities yet to launch have licenses to operate commercial satellites New bill supports private initiatives for meteorology supply OTHER COUNTRIES NATIONAL LEGISLATION EU bid for common European imagery legislation thwarted DATA POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR EO INDUSTRY Data policies set independently for reach satellite or typology of end user The impact of freely available data Spatial data: A key infrastructure COPERNICUS GOVERNANCE AND FUNDING ISSUES RESOLVED THROUGH REGULATION Division of roles and ownership issues determined Copernicus data policy to maximize the use of EO data LANDSCAPE OF GOVERNMENT EARTH OBSERVATION PROGRAMS* (WORLD, 2013) ITAR reform to become effective at the end of 2014 DRIVERS AND RISKS ALONG THE EO VALUE CHAIN Elements impacting the market outside of policy Main risks for the Earth observation industry Comparing aerial and satellite solutions Comparing satellite and UAV solutions COMMERCIAL DATA PRICING STRATEGIES Overview of data pricing Data pricing variation explained Further aspects to consider Data pricing evolution over time More governments seeking to commercialize data EARTH OBSERVATION COMMERCIAL DATA SALES: OPTICAL AND RADAR (WORLD, ) Revenue ($ million) 1,600 1,400 1,200 * Also outlining the regional 1,000 definitions taken through this study Ground Resolution (Optical) VHR Very high resolution 1m H-MR High-medium resolution > 1m SATELLITE-BASED EARTH OBSERVATION MARKET PROSPECTS TO 2023 Euroconsult 2014 unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation SAR H-MR VHR EMERGING PROGRAMS AND MARKETS DRIVING GROWTH Export opportunities to increase; polarizing solutions are put forward Satellite launches to become increasingly global Commercial data market expected to remain buoyant SATELLITE-BASED EARTH OBSERVATION MARKET PROSPECTS TO 2023 Euroconsult 2014 unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation

4 02\ THE INDUSTRY EIGHT YEARS OF CONTINUED GROWTH IN EO INVESTMENT Manufacturing revenues to grow 85% over Number of EO satellites to double in the next decade Budget pressure favors lower-cost missions Number of countries with satellite integration capabilities continues to increase METEOROLOGY MANUFACTURING REVENUES TO INCREASE BY 115% Europe expected to become the largest supplier of meteorology solutions, surpassing the U.S. Local provision for meteorology programs EO & METEO PRIMES CONCENTRATED IN LEADING SPACE NATIONS Operators support national industry bases POLARIZATION IN EO SATELLITES COSTS CREATES A DILEMMA Low-cost systems with technology transfer programs to build domestic capabilities Import of higher-cost systems to meet national defense requirements Emerging programs support the rise of new manufacturers REGIONAL DEMAND FOR SATELLITE PRIMES Manufacturing revenues in Europe to grow by 117% North American primes increase their backlog value by 40% China expected to launch 58 satellites over next decade CIS, South Korea, Japan, and India markets to experience strong growth LAUNCH SERVICE REVENUES TO INCREASE TO $8.9 BILLION, THOUGH BOTTLENECKS ANTICIPATED Launch capacity bottleneck foreseen Launch services revenues driven by domestic demand Emerging and commercial EO programs favor most competitive offer Effects of U.S. sanctions unknown on Russian launch market THE COMMERCIAL DATA MARKET TOTALS $1.5 BILLION IN 2023 Low capex model potentially disruptive Defense remains the first growth driver Consolidated industry financials PROFILES OF COMMERCIAL OPERATORS DigitalGlobe Airbus Defence & Space MDA ImageSat BlackBridge Deimos Imaging DMCii Skybox Imaging Planet Labs UrtheCast Other commercial small satellite EO constellations expected to emerge EARTH OBSERVATION SATELLITES* MANUFACTURING VALUES: DISTRIBUTION OF MISSIONS BY PRICE RANGE (WORLD, AND FORECAST TO 2023) >$200M (13%) $150M-200M (16%) $100M-150M (13%) $150M-200M (6%) $50M-100M >$200M $50M-100M EARTH (33%) OBSERVATION (9%) SATELLITES* MANUFACTURING (49%) MARKET VALUE: DISTRIBUTION BY REGION OF SATELLITE OWNERSHIP (WORLD, AND FORECAST TO 2023) $100M-150M (12%) Middle East Middle East (2%) Africa (1%) (2%) SE Asia & Oceania (3%) SE Asia & Oceania (3%) Africa (2%) Latin America (4%) Latin America (6%) Russia & CIS (8%) <$50M (25%) North America (18%) Average cost (R&D leading): $181 million Average cost (other): $88 million <$50M (24%) Rest of Asia (42%) Average cost (R&D leading): $156 million North America Average cost (other): $69 million (20%) Europe SATELLITE-BASED EARTH OBSERVATION MARKET PROSPECTS TO 2023 (22%) Euroconsult 2014 unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation Total satellites: 133 Total market value: $15.5 billion Russia & CIS (10%) Europe (29%) Rest of Asia (28%) Total satellites: 283 Total market value: $27.6 billion * Meteorology satellites not included SATELLITE-BASED EARTH OBSERVATION MARKET PROSPECTS TO 2023 Euroconsult 2014 unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation

5 THE INDUSTRY CONTINUED EMERGING OPERATORS TO DELIVER METEOROLOGY/ENVIRONMENTAL DATA GeoMetWatch status currently unclear GPS-RO Solutions Commercial EO operators continue international expansion Five typologies of distribution agreements Local companies commercialize data from government programs Multiple motivations for operators to sign reseller agreements Motivation for the distributing company and service provider Distribution networks grow through newcomers Operators establish themselves in home regions, then diversify globally Online portals as a mechanism to reach commercial users Distributors use operators online catalogs not viewed as a threat CIVIL GOVERNMENTS INVESTED $8.7 BILLION IN EO IN 2013 NASA launches GPM-CORE and OCO-2 and awaits SMAP in 2014 Combined European investments equate to $1.6 billion Sentinel-1A launched in April 2014 Regulation set to solve Copernicus governance and funding issues ESA left with limited data collection capability until arrival of Copernicus Sentinels European countries national programs continue to develop France s national civil EO budget declines following Pléiades launches Italy approves funding for CSG Germany s civil program exploring opportunities beyond radar Spain s PAZ expected for launch in 2014 Other European countries developing national EO capabilities Asian countries prioritize national coverage capabilities China rolls-out first high-resolution system Japan focuses on global environment and disaster-prevention missions India plans highest resolution EO satellite commercially available South Korea builds domestic capabilities through international cooperation Rapidly expanding programs focus on building autonomy while serving operational requirements Russia revives domestic program for natural resource and disaster monitoring Brazil increases domestic capabilities Argentina expands program through cooperation Turkey continues to develop the Göktürk series RCM to increase Canadian SAR data collection capabilities Emerging programs developing EO capacity Key drivers for EO capability development More countries set to establish capabilities through technology transfer METEOROLOGY INVESTMENT LED BY A FEW COUNTRIES Leading meteorology agencies developing new GEO and LEO fleets NOAA considering polar orbiting gap alternatives EUMETSAT focuses on next-generation meteorology programs New and replenishment meteo systems in nine other countries EARTH OBSERVATION COMMERCIAL DATA: DEMAND BY REGION (WORLD, AND FORECAST TO 2023) Revenue ($ million) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 AFRICA EARTH OBSERVATION COMMERCIAL REST OF DATA: ASIA DEMAND BY REGION (WORLD, 2013) Total SE ASIA market: & OCEANIA $1.5 billion RUSSIA & CIS MIDDLE EAST SE Asia & Oceania Africa (3%) (4%) EUROPE Russia & CIS (5%) LATIN AMERICA Middle East (8%) 500 Latin America (9%) F 2016F 2018F 2020F 2022F NORTH AMERICA North America (44%) SATELLITE-BASED EARTH OBSERVATION MARKET PROSPECTS TO 2023 Euroconsult 2014 unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation Rest of Asia (12%) Europe (15%) SATELLITE-BASED EARTH OBSERVATION MARKET PROSPECTS TO 2023 Euroconsult 2014 unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation

6 03\ SECTOR AND REGIONAL DEMAND SECTOR DEMAND OVERVIEW EIGHTH YEAR OF CONTINUED GROWTH IN EO INVESTMENT Despite U.S. government cutbacks, defense remains by far the largest market Varying user typologies for EO solutions DEFENSE Defense remains by far the most significant market for commercial EO data EO data to support IMINT and GEOINT applications Focus on very high resolution, high-accuracy data Direct access to satellite proving successful among defense users INFRASTRUCTURE AND ENGINEERING Data sales to infrastructure and engineering totals $140 million in 2013 Applications expansion with higher resolution data sets Higher ground resolution and revisit are key requirements Public and private sectors work in close cooperation NATURAL RESOURCES MONITORING NRM applications expected to benefit from new EO constellations Change detection cornerstone for NRM applications Civil government at various levels the key user ENERGY Growing global demand with newer services driving applications EO solutions serve applications during operations lifetime Wide-ranging requirements for applications The private sector is paramount, unlike other sectors LOCATION-BASED SERVICES LBS demand growing strongly LBS applications require high resolution and low revisit LBS end users expected to diversify MARITIME OPERATIONS Increased global shipping with continued efforts on maritime surveillance are driving EO data use Ship tracking and surveillance an operational service The main civil sector for SAR data Public sector/civil security primary users DISASTER MANAGEMENT Key application area but limited commercial revenue generation EO data supports entire disaster life cycle applications Responsive very high resolution as key data requirement Disaster management efforts coordinated by international organizations ENVIRONMENT MONITORING Budget concerns over supply remain Applications span climate variables Strong variation in data requires specific instrumentation Research community and the public primary users

7 SECTOR AND REGIONAL DEMAND CONTINUED REGIONAL OVERVIEW Despite cutbacks, U.S. remains by far the largest market NORTH AMERICA Defense spending drop disguises growth in other sectors North America data market forecast to reach $1.2 billion in 2023 EUROPE Europe growing at a slower rate Europe data market forecast to reach $410 million in 2023 REST OF ASIA Applications to provide economic benefits for national development Long term government plans to support sustainable data demand LATIN AMERICA Growing demand to support resources, infrastructure, and defense applications Latin America data market forecast to reach $390 million in 2022 MIDDLE EAST Defense and energy the primary demand sectors of EO data Defense expected to account for 80% of data sales by 2023 RUSSIA AND CIS EO data demand continues to show strong growth Defense and natural resources monitoring to further support growth SOUTHEAST ASIA AND OCEANIA Applications to support economic growth developing in stature Overall economic development supporting EO growth AFRICA EO data market in Africa reaches $45 million in 2013 Educating end-users and demonstrating cost-benefit will help drive growth

8 GRAPHS 01\ STRATEGIC ISSUES AND FORECAST REGIONAL DEFINITIONS LANDSCAPE OF GOVERNMENT EARTH OBSERVATION PROGRAMS (WORLD, 2013) EARTH OBSERVATION COMMERCIAL DATA SALES: OPTICAL AND RADAR (WORLD, ) EARTH OBSERVATION COMMERCIAL DATA SALES BY USER (WORLD, ) EARTH OBSERVATION SATELLITES LAUNCHED (WORLD, AND FORECASTS TO 2023) OPTICAL AND RADAR COMMERCIAL HIGH RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL SATELLITES BASED ON ANTICIPATED LIFESPANS (WORLD, AND FORECASTS TO 2023) EARTH OBSERVATION DATA SALES: OPTICAL AND RADAR (WORLD, , AND FORECAST TO 2023) EARTH OBSERVATION SATELLITES TO BE LAUNCHED BY OPERATOR TYPE (WORLD, AND FORECAST TO 2023) EARTH OBSERVATION SATELLITES MANUFACTURING MARKET VALUE: DISTRIBUTION BY OPERATOR TYPE (WORLD, AND FORECAST TO 2023) EARTH OBSERVATION DATA PRICES: OPTICAL EARTH OBSERVATION DATA PRICES: OPTICAL AND SAR COMPARISON 02\ THE INDUSTRY EARTH OBSERVATION VALUE CHAIN, 2013 EARTH OBSERVATION SATELLITES MANUFACTURING VALUES: DISTRIBUTION OF MISSIONS BY PRICE RANGE (WORLD, AND FORECASTS TO 2023) EARTH OBSERVATION SATELLITES MANUFACTURING VALUES: DISTRIBUTION BY REGION OF SATELLITE OWNERSHIP (WORLD, AND FORECASTS TO 2023) EARTH OBSERVATION SATELLITES MANUFACTURING MARKET VALUE: DISTRIBUTION BY REGION OF PRIME CONTRACTOR (WORLD, AND FORECASTS TO 2023) EARTH OBSERVATION SATELLITES MANUFACTURING MARKET VALUE: DISTRIBUTION BY PRIME CONTRACTOR (WORLD, AND FORECASTS TO 2023) METEOROLOGY SATELLITES MANUFACTURING MARKET VALUE: DISTRIBUTION BY REGION OF SATELLITE OWNERSHIP (WORLD, AND FORECASTS TO 2023) METEOROLOGY SATELLITES MANUFACTURING MARKET VALUE: DISTRIBUTION BY REGION OF PRIME CONTRACTOR (WORLD, AND FORECASTS TO 2023) METEOROLOGY SATELLITES MANUFACTURING MARKET VALUE: DISTRIBUTION BY PRIME CONTRACTOR (WORLD, AND FORECASTS TO 2023) GEO EARTH OBSERVATION AND METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITES LAUNCH SERVICES: DISTRIBUTION BY LAUNCH SERVICE PROVIDER (WORLD, AND FORECAST TO 2023) LEO EARTH OBSERVATION AND METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITES LAUNCH SERVICES: DISTRIBUTION BY LAUNCH SERVICE PROVIDER (WORLD, AND FORECAST TO 2023) EARTH OBSERVATION COMMERCIAL DATA: DISTRIBUTORS BY REGION (WORLD, AS OF JULY 2014) TOP FIVE BUDGETS FOR EARTH OBSERVATION PROGRAMS (WORLD, AND FORECAST TO 2018) TOP TWO BUDGETS FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE PROGRAMS (WORLD, AND FORECAST TO 2018) METEOROLOGY SATELLITES (WORLD, AND FORECAST TO 2023) COMMERCIALLY OPERATED SATELLITES (WORLD, AND FORECAST TO 2023) EARTH OBSERVATION SATELLITES FROM EMERGING / IN-DEVELOPMENT SPACE (WORLD, AND FORECAST TO 2023) EARTH OBSERVATION SATELLITES FROM EMERGING / IN-DEVELOPMENT SPACE PROGRAMS (WORLD, AND FORECAST TO 2023) 03\ SECTOR AND REGIONAL DEMAND EARTH OBSERVATION COMMERCIAL DATA: DEMAND BY SECTOR (WORLD, 2013) EARTH OBSERVATION COMMERCIAL DATA: DEMAND BY SECTOR (WORLD, AND FORECAST TO 2023) EARTH OBSERVATION COMMERCIAL DATA: REGION DEMAND BY SECTOR (WORLD, 2013) INTERNATIONAL CHARTER ACTIVATION BY DATA TYPE EARTH OBSERVATION COMMERCIAL DATA: SECTOR DEMAND BY REGION (WORLD, 2013) EARTH OBSERVATION COMMERCIAL DATA: DEMAND BY REGION (WORLD, 2013) EARTH OBSERVATION COMMERCIAL DATA: DEMAND BY REGION (WORLD, AND FORECAST TO 2023) EARTH OBSERVATION COMMERCIAL DATA: SECTOR DEMAND BY REGION (WORLD, 2013)

9 TABLES 01\ STRATEGIC ISSUES AND FORECAST RELATIVE DATA USAGE BY SECTOR U.S. EO REGULATORY FRAMEWORK CURRENT U.S. COMMERCIAL EO LICENSES, SATELLITES TO BE LAUNCHED SUMMARY OF DATA POLICY BY COUNTRY GLOBAL / REGIONAL INITIATIVES ON OPEN DATA DIVISION OF ROLES KEY INDUSTRY DRIVERS BY APPLICATION AREA INDUSTRY RISKS BY APPLICATION AREA UAV CATEGORIES AND CHARACTERISTICS COMPARISON OF SATELLITES CAPABILITIES AND DATA PRICING SUMMARY OF CURRENT AND FUTURE EO LOWER COST / FREE DATA MISSIONS SATELLITES TO BE LAUNCHED BY OPERATOR 02\ THE INDUSTRY TWO DECADES OF EO SATELLITES TWO DECADES OF METEOROLOGY SATELLITES SAMPLE LOW-COST AND HIGH-COST EXPORT MISSIONS EMERGING MANUFACTURERS RECORD AND BACKLOG OF EUROPEAN MANUFACTURERS RECORD AND BACKLOG OF NORTH AMERICAN MANUFACTURERS RECORD AND BACKLOG OF CHINESE MANUFACTURERS RECORD AND BACKLOG OF ASIAN AND RUSSIAN AND CIS MANUFACTURERS TWO DECADES OF LAUNCH SERVICES FOR EO AND METEOROLOGY SATELLITES LAUNCH VEHICLES AVAILABLE FOR EO AND METEOROLOGY SATELLITES LAUNCH SERVICE PROVIDERS AND VEHICLES FOR EO AND METEOROLOGY SATELLITES MAJOR COMMERCIAL OPERATORS FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 2013 DIGITALGLOBE EO SATELLITES AIRBUS DEFENCE & SPACE EO SATELLITES MDA/CSA EO SATELLITES IMAGESAT EO SATELLITES RAPIDEYE EO SATELLITES DEIMOS EO SATELLITES DMCII EO SATELLITES SKYBOX EO SATELLITES PLANET LABS EO SATELLITES SAMPLING OF FIVE TYPOLOGY OF DISTRIBUTION AGREEMENTS COMMERCIAL OPERATORS GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS TOTAL NUMBER OF RESELLER AGREEMENTS BY REGION COMMERCIAL OPERATORS INTERNET SERVICES UPCOMING U.S. ENVIRONMENT MONITORING SATELLITES NATIONAL CIVIL EO INVESTMENT VS. INVESTMENTS IN ESA S EO PROGRAM( MILLION, 2013) COPERNICUS SERVICES SUMMARY OF COPERNICUS FUNDING BY EC AND ESA ESA S UPCOMING ENVIRONMENT-MONITORING SATELLITES FUTURE NATIONAL EUROPEAN SATELLITE MISSIONS* FUTURE NATIONAL CHINA, JAPAN, INDIA AND SOUTH KOREA SATELLITE MISSIONS FUTURE SATELLITE PROGRAMS SUMMARY OF EMERGING EO PROGRAMS LEADING METEOROLOGY PROGRAMS SUMMARY OF DEVELOPING AND EMERGING METEOROLOGY PROGRAMS 03\ SECTOR AND REGIONAL DEMAND SUMMARY OF PRIMARY DATA REQUIREMENTS FOR KEY APPLICATIONS DEFENSE DATA REQUIREMENTS INFRASTRUCTURE AND ENGINEERING DATA REQUIREMENTS NATURAL RESOURCE MONITORING DATA REQUIREMENTS ENERGY DATA REQUIREMENTS LBS DATA REQUIREMENTS MARITIME OPERATIONS DATA REQUIREMENTS DISASTER MANAGEMENT DATA REQUIREMENTS INTERNATIONAL DISASTER CHARTER ORGANIZATION MEMBERS AND SATELLITE RESOURCES ENVIRONMENT MONITORING APPLICATION AREAS AND SUPPORTING MISSIONS ENVIRONMENT MONITORING DATA REQUIREMENTS DATA SALES BY REGION

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