Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) Lindley Johnson Program Executive / Planetary Defense Officer Science Mission Directorate NASA HQ

Transcription

1 Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) Lindley Johnson Program Executive / Planetary Defense Officer Science Mission Directorate NASA HQ January 11, 2017

2 Planetary Defense Coordination Office This new office was recently established at NASA HQ to coordinate planetary defense related activities across NASA, and coordinate both US interagency and international efforts and projects to address and plan response to the asteroid impact hazard. Planetary Defense Coordination Office Mission Statement: Lead national and international efforts to: Detect any potential for significant impact of planet Earth by natural objects Appraise the range of potential effects by any possible impact Develop strategies to mitigate impact effects on human welfare 2

3 Planetary Defense Coordination Office Administrator Associate Administrator Associate Administrator, Science Mission Directorate Planetary Science Division Program Director Public Communications Lead Program Executive Planetary Defense Officer Policy Development NEO Observation Program Program Manager Program Scientist Minor Planet Center/IAWN Center for NEO JPL Catalina Sky Survey Pan-STARRS LINEAR/SST IRTF GSSR NEOWISE.. Legacy Program (1998) Interagency and Emergency Response Program Officer(s) Interagency coordination Emergency Response planning Interagency exercise Mitigation Research Program Officer(s) SMPAG ARM Gravity Tractor Demo AIDA Short Warning Mitigation..

4 NEO Program Coordination Office Minor SBN-Minor Planet Center Planet Center (SAO) Center Center for for NEO NEO Studies Studies (JPL) (JPL) Planetary Defense Officer, (0.5) Lindley Johnson Program Administrator, (0.3) LaJuan Moore Communications, (0.5) Linda Billings Policy Development, (0.5) Lindley Johnson Detection & Characterization NEOO Projects, (1.7) Kelly Fast, Program Manager Mike Kelley, Program Scientist Catalina Sky Survey Pan-STARRS SST IRTF GSSR NEOWISE ANSMET Interagency Partnerships, (0.5) Victoria Friedensen (PE) NSF Partnerships, (0.2) Tom Statler Arecibo LSST PIERWG (FEMA) DAMIEN IWG (OSTP) International Partnerships, (0.8) Rob Landis (PE) Gordon Johnston (PE) IAWN SMPAG ARRM PD Demo UN OOSA AIDA/DART.

5 PDCO Project Accomplishments 2016 Earth s small quasi-moon 2016 HO3 discovered in April by Pan-STARRS 15,000th NEA discovered in October by Catalina Sky Survey Set new record with 1,894 NEAs discovered in 2016 Established Web presence for PDCO on NASA.gov and solidified communication strategy with NASA Headquarters Office of Communications Held first NEOO Program Review of large search and follow-up projects and mitigation studies Convened the NEO Science Definition Team to update 2003 NEO Report Commissioned (with NSF) study of LSST capabilities for NEO detection Participated with NSF on Environmental Impact Study for future of Arecibo Increased IAWN signatories to eight nations/international entities Formalized working relationships between IAWN and SMPAG Established asteroid threat threshold criteria for IAWN - SMPAG action Held third NASA-FEMA Table Top Exercise with FEMA Region 9 in Los Angeles Held a follow-on communications exercise with FEMA-NASA HQs public communications officers Supported establishment of Asteroid Redirect Mission Investigation Team Completed AIDA-DART KDP-A DPMC in March 2016 Completed successful AIDA-DART Mission Design Review in September 2016 Approved NASA Policy Directive on Notification and Communications Regarding Potential Near- Earth Object Threats Established Detecting and Mitigating Impacts of Earth-bound NEOs (DAMIEN) Interagency Working Group with OSTP Published (through DAMIEN) the White House National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy 5

6 OODAA Loop Assess Observe Act Orient Decide

7 Planetary Defense Loop Assess Detect Assess Observe Follow-up Mitigate Act Orient Decide Characterize Coordinate Plan

8 Planetary Defense Coordination Office Assess Detect Assess Observe Follow-up Mitigate Act PDCO Orient Decide Characteriz e Coordinate Plan

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15 NEA Survey Status 15

16 NEA Survey Rate >1 kilometer 16

17 NEA Survey Rate All Sizes 17

18 NEA Survey Rate >140 meters 18

19 Near Earth Asteroid Survey Status To meet Current Objectives Initial Objective Accomplished 19

20 Near Earth Asteroid Survey Status If Population >= 140 meters in estimated size is ~ 25,500 = 100% As of 1/1/17 20

21 Planetary Defense Coordination Office International Collaboration 21

22 UN Office of Outer Space Affairs Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space Overview for NEO Threat Response United Nations COPUOS/OOSA Inform in case of credible threat Determine Impact time, location and severity International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) Parent Government Delegates P i >1% Potential deflection mission plans S > 50m Space Missions Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) Observers, analysts, modelers Space Agencies and Offices

23 Planetary Defense Coordination Office Rapid Notification Process 23

24 Planetary Defense Coordination Office Potential NEO Threat Notification Process Object Detected, Initial Orbit Determination Made Very Close Approach to Earth? yes Potential Impact >1% yes If Yes to either, then notification process initiated Yes Potential Impact! PDCO Drafts Notification No Between Earth and Moon and Visible From Earth? PDCO Notifies SMD AA, NASA Administrator, NASA Administrator informs Executive Office of the President (EOP), OSTP When EOP acknowledges, NASA OIIR disseminates notification to Federal Agencies, NMCCs NASA OLIA notifies US Congress If impact in US territory If impact outside U.S. Note: Time taken to accomplish is directly proportional to time remaining to impact FEMA notifies Federal, state, and local emergency response orgs Department of State notifies affected nation/ nations NASA releases public statement Now documented in NASA Policy Directive 8740 Notification and Communications Regarding Potential NEO Object Threats

25 Bolide Events Small Asteroids that Disintegrated in Earth s Atmosphere Chelyabinsk = Hiroshima See database of 698 events and more at 25

26 Planetary Defense Coordination Office Support to Emergency Response Planning 26

27 Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) Characterization Physical Properties Orbital Trajectories JPL Web LLNL Atmospheric Entry & Airburst Modeling Entry Trajectories/Ablation Energy Deposition Surface Impact Effects Modeling Ground Damage Tsunami Propagation Credit: Tim Warchocki Deliverables Mitigation Decision Tools Near Real-Time Bolide Reporting System Physics-Based Impact Risk Modeling Quantitative Risk Metrics Sensitivity to Uncertainty Impact Risk Assessment Tools US Gov. Surveillance System Light Curves: New 600 Plus Existing

28 Impact Emergency Response Exercise #3 Oct 25, 2016 Hosted by The Aerospace Corporation, El Segundo, CA Representatives from: FEMA Region 9 California Governor s Office of Emergency Services U.S. Air Force/SMC FEMA HQ NASA PDCO Impact scenario prepared and presented by: The Aerospace Corporation NASA PDCO JPL DOE National Laboratories EXERCISE 5 months prior to Impact Optical-only tracking ~100 meter object Impact Probability 100% Date: Sep A report will be released on the discussion of issues potentially faced by emergency managers under such a scenario. EXERCISE

29 Impact Emergency Response (with FEMA) Planetary Impact Emergency Response Working Group (PIERWG) was established by FEMA and NASA to: Develop guidance to prepare for any potential impact of our planet by a large natural object, and Coordinate responsibilities and resolve preparedness and operational issues relating to interagency response and recovery activities at the national level. Primary Objectives are to: Promote cohesiveness in planning, organization, equipment, training, exercises, and operations to facilitate interagency response, recovery, and preparedness. Identify policy issues affecting the interagency community to elevate to decision-makers in order to ensure a collaborative and coordinated approach. Serve as a steering committee for all phases of interagency risk and planning analysis, including informing strategy, procedural courses of action, draft products, and approving completed products. Determine how PIERWG recommendations could be integrated into Department/Agency planning initiatives and doctrine. 29

30 Interagency Coordination The National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) has created an interagency working group for Detecting and Mitigating the Impact of Earth-bound Near-Earth Objects (DAMIEN) Co-chaired by OSTP and PDCO DAMIEN is an interagency body to define, coordinate and oversee a NEO Earthimpact response and recovery input into the National Planning Framework Assess the status and viability of interagency efforts that enhance and extend scientific research, technical development, and operational capability Define the types of NEO Earth-impacting events and assist their incorporation into Federal emergency preparedness, planning, scenarios, training, and exercises Identify and assist interagency efforts to establish Federal and non-federal stakeholder collaborations to enhance and extend systems for detection, characterization, and monitoring; and networks and data management activities Developing a National NEO Preparedness Strategy and an Action Plan Strategy draft is in interagency coordination 30

31 Interagency Working Group (IWG) for Detecting and Mitigating the Impact of Earthbound Near-Earth Objects (DAMIEN) created under the Committee on Homeland and National Security (CHNS) within the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) GOALS FOR THE DAMIEN IWG Develop a National NEO Preparedness Strategy (NNPS) within nine months of this charter Articulate goals for extending and enhancing prediction (detection, characterization and monitoring) and National Preparedness (protection, mitigation, response and recovery) for potentially hazardous or Earth-impacting NEOs. Develop a NEO Preparedness Action Plan (NPAP) within fourteen months of the charter Establish actions, timelines, and milestones for the implementation of the NNPS. Develop metrics to measure progress of the plan annually, or as needed.

32 Planetary Defense Coordination Office Mitigation Research 32

33 Options for In-space Deflection National Research Council of the National Academies, Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies Final Report, 2010 Multiple studies of impact threat deflection have cited three techniques as most viable: Kinetic Impactor, Gravity Tractor, Nuclear Explosive Device Making planetary defense credible requires a series of technology demonstrations and operational tests All techniques require some level of demonstration and validation before considered viable for implementation in impact emergency response Requires ongoing program to reduce risks, validate performance models, prove out an integrated capability, and maintain readiness for potential operators and decision-makers International participation in any asteroid mitigation / deflection campaign is highly desirable if not essential to overall acceptability Diameter (m) Kinetic impactor is the most mature; probably most effective except for short-term warning Warning Time (yr) Gravity Tractor is most controllable technique if time is available 33

34 National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Presenter Title/Affiliation Date Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) Program of the Human Exploration & Operations Mission Directorate

35 Asteroid Redirect Mission: Three Main Segments IDENTIFY Ground and space based assets detect and characterize potential target asteroids NEOWISE Pan-STARRS Goldstone Arecibo Infrared Telescope Facility REDIRECT Solar electric propulsion (SEP) based system redirects asteroid to cislunar space. EXPLORE Crew launches aboard SLS rocket, travels to redirected asteroid in Orion spacecraft to rendezvous with redirected asteroid, studies and returns samples to Earth 35 35

36 ARM Robotic Segment Overview 4) Asteroid Operations (230 days) Approach and Characterization Near- Earth Asteroid (NEA) Boulder Collection 100 days 50 days Margin 50 days Planetary Defense Demonstration 30 days 3) Outbound Cruise LDRO Moon 2) Non-Critical Deployments and Checkouts 5) Inbound Cruise 6) Transfer to ARCM Destination Orbit 7) Crew Operations 8) Transfer to Long-Term Stable Orbit 1) Launch on Delta IV Heavy, Falcon Heavy or Space Launch System (SLS) EARTH 36

37 Planetary Defense Demonstration Enhanced Gravity Tractor (EGT) Uses the mass of the collected boulder to augment the mass of the spacecraft and increase the gravitational attraction Small, but measurable deflection will be imparted on hazardous size asteroid 30 days for EGT allocated in timeline. Collected mass is limited by requirement to return the boulder to lunar vicinity. Current return capability from 2008 EV5 is ~20 t EV 5 deflection can be verified using ground-based radar (opportunities available in 2023, 2024, and 2025) Other targets may require the Asteroid Redirect Vehicle (ARV) to loiter near the asteroid for deflection verification via differential ranging to the ARV. Actual EGT planetary defense mission could utilize more power/propellant and collect much more mass, increasing the effectiveness of this technique. 37

38 Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA) The AIDA is a mission concept to demonstrate asteroid impact hazard mitigation with a kinetic impact spacecraft to deflect an asteroid AIDA would be a joint US and European mission: European rendezvous spacecraft, the Asteroid Impact Monitor (AIM) mission US kinetic impactor, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission NASA has agreed with ESA to continue parallel formulation studies into 2017 The AIDA mission would intercept the secondary member of the binary Near-Earth Asteroid Didymos in October 2022 AIDA = AIM+DART May 12,

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40 LSST NEO Survey Study Jointly sponsored by NASA - NSF to reach consensus position on benefits Participation by JPL CNEOS and LSST solar system science team Will inform how LSST could be integrated into NEOO Program Status Analysis completed and final report in draft Still needs review by Independent Review Team Then vetting by NASA - NSF sponsors Expect completion in two months 40

41 NEOO Science Definition Team Update 2016 Update of 2003 NEO SDT report Again chaired by Dr Grant Stokes MIT/LL and about 75% same participants Update for knowledge gained and technology evolution Status Most modeling/simulation/analysis work done Most chapters nearing final draft Need to finalize and review report, then vet through NASA SMD Expect completion in 3 to 4 months 41

42 NEOCam Originally proposed in 2006, this was third attempt for selection by JPL and Ball Aerospace team B612 proposed Sentinel with SAA in 2011, a similar concept with Ball but with very different instrument and orbit positioning NEOCam did well in highly competitive Discovery selection but in end was not rated as high for a "compelling science" mission Selected for "extended Phase A" effort through 2017 NEOCam 2017 task plan/objectives now in work with JPL 42