Hydraulic Fracturing: services & equipment Richard Spears Spears & Associates Tulsa. May 2018

Transcription

1 Hydraulic Fracturing: services & equipment Richard Spears Spears & Associates Tulsa May 2018

2 This Tulsa company and its affiliated data mining firm, Oilfield Logix, worked for 350 clients in With over 50 years of experience Spears & Associates provides business planning, analysis, activity forecasts and market research-based consulting services to the worldwide petroleum equipment and service industry. T H E S P E A R S D I F F E R E N C E John and Richard Spears lead the firm s team of oilfield veterans and data analysts. Both brothers are former field engineers and operations managers for oilfield service companies. The brothers also hold board seats in privately held oilfield service companies active around the world, land and offshore. All four senior partners of the firm have decades of experience in drilling, completion and production products and services. Some of the firm s 350 clients include Baker Hughes/GE, Halliburton, Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil, Fidelity, Blackstone and H&P. The client breakdown is 57% OFS, 27% Financial, 11% Oil Co. and 5% Consultants R E P O R T S A N D P U L I C A T I O N S Spears publishes the following quarterly deep dive reports: Drilling & Production Outlook; Oilfield Market Report; Artificial Lift; Drill Bits; Directional Drilling; Cementing; Coiled Tubing; Completion Equipment; Hydraulic Fracturing; Proppant; Well Servicing; Water Management; Wireline. B R O A D E N I N G T H E I R R E A C H In addition to their paid services, Spears & Associates is also increasing their reach through free weekly podcasts. Weekly analysis, and an upcoming video series on YouTube 100k 5k-10k 2 Weeks Listens to weekly podcast The Drilldown Readers of Spears & Associates weekly Friday 300 word analytics report Until the launch of their dedicated YouTube Channel

3 Remember This Chart Day 1 is the best day of a well s life each successive day is worse

4 Take-away #1 Because US wells decline rapidly, 16,000 wells must be drilled & frac d each year to keep US oil output flat.

5 US new well drilling 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 New Wells Drilled Per Year Horizontal Vertical

6 Take-away #2 In 2017 and 2018 the US will drill enough horizontal wells to make oil production rise.

7 The 2018 environment Drilling New Resv Sand & Rigs Wells Footage Water , M 115 M Rigs Wells Feet tons

8 Thousands of Tons Rail Shipments of Sand 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17

9 MILLIONS NoAm Oilfield Spending $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q

10 Millions Domestic v. Intl Oilfield $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 NAM Intnl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q

11 Take-away #3 Lack of international investment in new well drilling is causing foreign oil output to fall

12 Take-away #4 Even if international oil companies decided today to ramp up drilling, first oil would be 5 years in the future

13 From site to drilling to frac

14 Frac job ~1979 Frac job from 30 years ago this is how China fracs today

15 Frac job 3 weeks ago 100-stage frac on 3 wells in the STACK

16 Infrastructure today

17 Big Trend: Long laterals 2500 <6000' Extended Reach Q4 17 Q3 17 Q2 17 Q1 17 Q4 16 Q3 16 Q2 16 Q1 16 Q4 15 Q3 15 Q2 15 Q1 15 Q4 14 Q3 14 DrillingInfo

18 Big Trend: Intensity Time to drill 1 well 60 days 15 days Wells per pad % horizontal 0% 75% Days to frac 1 well 1 7 Proppant per well 0.1 million lbs 14 million lbs Cost in 2018 $ $3M $6M Frac % of total cost 10% 40%

19 Take-away #5 Frac jobs always grow in size and intensity. This trend will continue.

20 US Frac Market $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 Hydraulic Fracturing Market (Millions) 2017 (Market Share) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% HAL SLB Keane Liberty FTS PTEN BJS RPC/Cudd ProPetro CJES USWellSVs Calfrac SPN TUSK BAS $ Market $29,356 $16,173 $9,162 $19,502 $26,324 QES ProSvs Others

21 Permian Frac Market 2017 (Market Share) $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Hydraulic Fracturing Market (Millions) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% HAL SLB Keane Liberty FTS BJ PTEN RPC/Cudd ProPetro CJES USWellSVs Calfrac SPN TUSK BAS $ Market $6,173 $3,643 $3,040 $7,272 $10,842 QES ProSvs Others

22 NoAm Frac HHP 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,

23 Incremental Frac HHP 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 - (1,000,000) (2,000,000) (3,000,000)

24 Millions Frac Equipment Mfrg $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $

25 Q = 0 Q = 1.00 Frac Pricing is Flat 1.40 Hydraulic Fracturing Cost Index Q118 Q117 Q1 16 Q1 15 Q1 14 Q1 13 Q1 12 Q1 11 Q1 10 Q1 09 Q % 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Quarter to Quarter Price Change Q418 Q318 Q218 Q118 Q417 Q317 Q217 Q117 Q416 Q316 Q2 16 Q1 16 Q4 15 Q3 15 Q2 15 Q1 15 Q4 14 Q3 14 Q2 14 Q1 14 Q4 13 Q3 13 Q2 13 Q1 13 Q4 12 Q3 12 Q2 12 Q1 12 Q4 11 Q3 11 Q2 11 Q1 11 Q4 10 Q3 10 Q2 10 Q1 10 Q4 09 Q3 09 Q2 09 Q1 09 Q4 08 Q3 08 Q2 08 Q1 08

26 Oilfield Markets (B) Hydraulic Fracturing Offshore Contract Drilling Offshore Construction Services Land Contract Drilling Oil Country Tubular Goods Subsea Equipment Wireline Logging Directional Drilling Services Artificial Lift Drilling & Completion Fluids Geophysical Equipment & Services Cementing Rig Equipment Completion Equipment & Services Specialty Chemicals Rental & Fishing Services Coiled Tubing Services Supply Vessels Surface Equipment Production Testing Floating Production Services Well Servicing Petroleum Aviation Unit Manufacturing Downhole Drilling Tools Contract Compression Services Drill Bits Solids Control & Waste Management Casing & Tubing Services Logging-While-Drilling Inspection & Coating Surface Data Logging $- $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.0 $30.0 $35.0

27 NoAm New Well Metrics 12,000 New Wells Drilled 300,000 Frac Stages Pumped 10, ,000 8, ,000 6, ,000 4, ,000 2,000 50, Q1 18 Q1 17 Q1 16 Q1 15 Q1 14 Q1 18 Q1 17 Q1 16 Q1 15 Q Reservoir Footage Drilled (millions) 80 Proppant Pumped (billions of lbs) Q1 18 Q1 17 Q1 16 Q1 15 Q1 14 Q1 18 Q1 17 Q1 16 Q1 15 Q1 14

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