Houston Economy Update. Patrick Jankowski
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1 Houston Economy Update Patrick Jankowski
2 Worst is over 2
3 $ Per Barrel NYMEX WTI Spot Price Avg. Last Week of Oct = $49/barrel Jun '14 Dec '14 Jun '15 Dec '15 Jun '16 Dec '16 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 3
4 Working Rigs U.S. Rig Count 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jun '14 Dec '14 Jun '15 Dec '15 Jun '16 Dec '16 Source: Baker Hughes 4
5 U.S. Rig Gains by State Since May Texas Oklahoma N. Dakota New Mexico Pennsylvania Wyoming All Others Source: Baker Hughes 5
6 Texas Energy Industry Survey Compared to the prior quarter, has your firm s outlook improved, not changed, or worsened % Responding Outlook Has Improved 41.9% 32.1% 16.1% Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Energy Survey 6
7 Texas Energy Industry Survey Compared to the prior quarter, has your firm s outlook improved, not changed, or worsened 51.7% % Responding Outlook Has Worsened 25.6% 22.3% Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Energy Survey 7
8 Earnings Per Share, Fully Diluted, Continuing Operations Q3/16 Q3/15 Improving Anadarko -$1.61 -$4.41 Apache Chevron ~ ConocoPhillips EOG ExxonMobil ~ Hess Marathon Occidental Shell Source: Securities and Exchange Commission Exploration & Production
9 Oil Field Services Earnings Per Share, Fully Diluted, Continuing Operations Q3/16 Q3/15 Improving Baker Hughes FMC Technologies Halliburton NOV Oil States Schlumberger ~ Tesco Weatherford Wood Group Source: Securities and Exchange Commission
10 Ripples and waves 10
11 Gross Domestic Production Houston MSA $ Billions '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 11
12 Gross Domestic Production U.S. Metros Rank Metro Area $ Billions 1 New York 1, Los Angeles Chicago Houston Washington, D.C Dallas-Fort Worth San Francisco Philadelphia Boston Atlanta Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 12
13 Jobs, 000s Houston Employment, Net Change Month Running Totals '14 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '15 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '16 Mar May Jul Source: Texas Workforce Commission
14 Houston Job Gains And Losses Since Dec 14 Losers Jobs Manufacturing -32,500 Mining and Logging -24,700 Engineering Services -10,000 Employment Services -7,200 Wholesale Trade -5,400 Transport, Warehousing, Utilities -4,100 Source: Texas Workforce Commission 14
15 Houston Job Gains And Losses Since Dec 14 Losers Jobs Manufacturing -32,500 Mining and Logging -24,700 Engineering Services -10,000 Employment Services -7,200 Wholesale Trade -5,400 Transport, Warehousing, Utilities -4,100 Winners Jobs Hotels, Restaurants, Bars +29,500 Health Care +24,000 Services to Buildings +7,500 Arts, Entertainment, Rec +5,700 Food Stores +5,000 Construction +4,700 Source: Texas Workforce Commission 15
16 Houston Job Gains And Losses Since Dec 14 Losers Jobs Manufacturing $75,816 Mining and Logging 151,840 Engineering Services 126,256 Employment Services 48,516 Wholesale Trade 78,520 Transport, Warehousing, Utilities 69,940 Source: Texas Workforce Commission 16
17 Houston Job Gains And Losses Since Dec 14 Losers Jobs Manufacturing $75,816 Mining and Logging 151,840 Engineering Services 126,256 Employment Services 48,516 Wholesale Trade 78,520 Transport, Warehousing, Utilities 69,940 Winners Jobs Hotels, Restaurants, Bars $19,760 Health Care 52,936 Services to Buildings 27,612 Arts, Entertainment, Rec 36,192 Food Stores 26,468 Construction 68,744 Source: Texas Workforce Commission 17
18 $ Billions Houston Total Wages Paid Q $44.5 $45.7 $48.4 $51.8 $48.4 Q1/12 Q1/13 Q1/14 Q1/15 Q1/16 Source: Texas Workforce Commission * 16 Constant Dollars 18
19 Billions Total Retail Sales w/o Gas Q $23.8 $20.1 $21.0 $21.6 $20.6 Q1/12 Q1/13 Q1/14 Q1/15 Q1/16 Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts * 16 Constant Dollars 19
20 Signs of improvement 20
21 Change in Base 12-Month Employment Change 10% Base Jobs 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Source: Greater Houston Partnership calculations based on Texas Workforce Commission data 21
22 Change in Base 12-Month Employment Change Change in Non-Base 10% 5% Base Jobs Non-Base Jobs 5% 4% 3% 0% -5% -10% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -15% '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Source: Greater Houston Partnership calculations based on Texas Workforce Commission data -4% 22
23 Houston Purchasing Managers Index 70 Above 50 = Expansion, Below 50 = Contraction '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Source: Institute for Supply Management- Houston 23
24 Houston Purchasing Managers Index 70 Above 50 = Expansion, Below 50 = Contraction '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Source: Institute for Supply Management- Houston 24
25 Jobs, 000s Houston Employment, Net Change Month Running Totals '14 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '15 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '16 Mar May Jul Source: Texas Workforce Commission
26 National Economy Gross Domestic Product 2.2% per quarterally over 26
27 National Economy Gross Domestic Product 2.2% per quarter Employment 200,000 per month finally over 27
28 National Economy Gross Domestic Product 2.2% per quarter Employment 200,000 per month Earnings Slight increasefinally over 28
29 National Economy Gross Domestic Product 2.2% per quarter Employment 200,000 per month Earnings Slight increase The Election It s finally over 29
30 Real estate still struggles 30
31 % Vacant Office Vacancy Rates Vacancy With Sublease 15.6% % Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Source: Transwestern
32 Class A Apartments Date Units Avg. Rent Rent/Sq. Ft. Occupancy Dec ,402 $1,483 $ % Oct ,527 $1,428 $ % Change +38,125 -$ % Source: Apartment Data Services 32
33 Houston Multi-Family Market Status Units Units Opened last 12 months 26,552 Under construction 15,524 Total 42,076 Net Absorption last 12 months* 6,887 Proposed 16,591 * Class A, B, C and D Source: Apartment Data Services 33
34 Houston Multi-Family Market Status Units Units Opened last 12 months 26,552 Under construction 15,524 Total 42,076 Net Absorption last 12 months* 6,887 Proposed 16,591 * Class A, B, C and D Source: Apartment Data Services 34
35 Houston Industrial Space Vacancy Rate - % Direct 4.4 Overall '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Q3/16 Source: Transwestern 35
36 Houston Retail Market Vacancy Rate - % Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Source: Transwestern 36
37 What will the recovery look like? 37
38 What Will the Recovery Look Like? 38
39 What Will the Recovery Look Like? Quick Rebound Slow, Gradual Rebound Wide Bottom, Then Quick Rebound 39
40 What Will the Recovery Look Like? X X Quick Rebound Slow, Gradual Rebound Wide Bottom, Then Quick Rebound 40
41 Historic Job Growth December to December, (000s) '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Source: Texas Workforce Commission
42 Historic Job Growth December to December, (000s) /11 Enron National Recession Weak Oil Prices Weak Oil Prices '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Source: Texas Workforce Commission
43 Why a bathtub? 43
44 Why a bathtub? Energy Still recovering, office, apartment boom winding down 44
45 Why a bathtub? Energy Still recovering Manufacturing Idle capacity and idle workers Chemical, office, apartment boom winding down 45
46 Why a bathtub? Energy Still recovering Manufacturing Idle capacity and idle workers Construction Chemical, office, apartment boom winding down 46
47 Why a bathtub? Transportation Waiting on growth elsewhere 47
48 Why a bathtub? Transportation Waiting on growth elsewhere F.I.R.E. Dealing with gov t regs, low interest rates, lack of demandting on the energy sector 48
49 Why a bathtub? Transportation Waiting on growth elsewhere F.I.R.E. Dealing with gov t regs, low interest rates, lack of demand Wholesale Trade Waiting on the energy sector 49
50 Why a bathtub? Retail Fueled by population, income growth 50
51 Why a bathtub? Retail Fueled by population, income growth Professional services Looking for non-energy clients 51
52 Why a bathtub? Retail Fueled by population, income growth Professional services Looking for non-energy clients Health care Babies, boomers and newcomers 52
53 Why a bathtub? Leisure and Hospitality Gearing up for Super Bowl LI 53
54 Why a bathtub? Leisure and Hospitality Gearing up for Super Bowl LI Other Services Marginal growth 54
55 Why a bathtub? Leisure and Hospitality Gearing up for Super Bowl LI Other Services Marginal growth Public education Still playing catch up 55
56 Historic Perspective 56
57 WTI ($/bbl) Oil Prices & Houston Employment Jobs, Millions 140 Monthly Oil Prices '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, U.S. Energy Information Administration
58 WTI ($/bbl) Oil Prices & Houston Employment Jobs, Millions Employment '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, U.S. Energy Information Administration
59 WTI ($/bbl) Oil Prices & Houston Employment Jobs, Millions 140 Monthly Oil Prices Employment '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 ' Source: Texas Workforce Commission, U.S. Energy Information Administration 59
60 Summary The worst is over. 60
61 Summary The worst is over. Nascent recovery underway. 61
62 Summary The worst is over. Nascent recovery underway. U.S. economy helping out. 62
63 Summary The worst is over. Nascent recovery underway. U.S. economy helping out. Will bounce along for a while. 63
64 Summary The worst is over. Nascent recovery underway. U.S. economy helping out. Will bounce along for a while. Real estate recovery a few years off. 64
65 Summary The worst is over. Nascent recovery underway. U.S. economy helping out. Will bounce along for a while. Real estate recovery a few years off. Marginal job growth next year. 65
66 Summary The worst is over. Nascent recovery underway. U.S. economy helping out. Will bounce along for a while. Real estate recovery a few years off. Marginal job growth next year. Growth possible without $100 oil. 66
67 Thank you 67
68 Houston Economy Update Patrick Jankowski
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