Houston Economic Outlook. Prepared by Patrick Jankowski SVP Research
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1 Houston Economic Outlook Prepared by Patrick Jankowski SVP Research
2
3 Longest U.S. Expansions Tech Boom '91 - ' Current Boom June '09 to Present s Boom '61 - '69 Reagan Years '82 - ' Months World War II Economy '38 - '45 80 Housing Bubble '01 - '07 73 Source: National Bureau for Economic Research
4 Expansions don t die of old age. Janet Yellen Chair, Board of Governors U.S. the Federal Reserve System,
5 Typical Recession Causes Bursting of an asset bubble Loss of consumer confidence Reductions in business investment Financial institution failures Credit crunch Commodity price spikes Loss of business confidence Government spending cuts Debt accumulation RISING INTEREST RATES
6 Six Most Recent Recessions When? Cause Interest rate hikes, fiscal austerity Stock market crash, oil price spike Interest rate hikes, oil price spike High debt levels, consumer pessimism, oil price spike, Dot-com bust, weak business investment, 9/ Subprime mortgage crisis
7
8 What NBER considers when dating a business cycle Real Gross Domestic Product Employment Real Personal Income Real Sales (business and retail) Industrial Production
9 NBER Business Cycle Peak Real GDP Recession Expansion Trough Time
10 Jankowski Business Cycle Peak Expansion Real GDP Recession Recovery Trough Time
11 U.S. Real Personal Income Income ($ Trillions) months 10 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
12 U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product 19 $ Trillions months '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
13 U.S. Payroll Employment Jobs (Millions) months 125 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
14 U.S. Industrial Production Index = months 85 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
15 What the current data tells us about the economy.
16 The Consumer Side of the Economy
17 U.S. Job Growth Month Net Change Jobs (000s) '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
18 Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Week Moving Average, Seasonally Adjusted, 000s Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration
19 U.S. Unemployment Rate* % Unemployed '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics * seasonally adjusted
20 U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate 64.5 Percent Population 16 and Older in the Workforce '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
21 Consumer Confidence :Q1=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: University of Michigan
22 The Financial Side of the Economy
23 Delinquencies Single-Family Mortgages 14 Percent, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
24 Credit Card Delinquencies 8 Percent, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
25 Delinquencies Commercial & Industrial Loans 5 Percent, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
26 Household Debt as Percent of Personal Income 14 Percent, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)
27 The Business Side of the Economy
28 U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate, % Change from Previous Quarter '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
29 U.S. Leading Economic Index 3.00 Percent, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
30 Future Capital Expenditures Index* *Calculated by subtracting percent reporting increases from percentage reporting decreases. -30 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
31 U.S. Housing Permits 1,600 Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 1,400 1,200 1, '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
32 U.S. Vehicle Sales New, Light-Duty Vehicles, Millions '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Source: National Automobile Dealers Association
33 U.S. Retail Sales 480 Billions of Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted* '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census * excludes food services
34 So, what about Houston?
35 140 Payroll Employment 12-Month Running Totals Jobs (000s) '14 Apr Jul Oct '15 Apr Jul Oct '16 Apr Jul Oct '17 Apr Jul Oct '18 Apr July Oct '19 Source: Texas Workforce Commission
36 In my 2016 forecast...
37 What Will the Recovery Look Like? Quick Rebound Slow, Gradual Rebound Wide Bottom, Then Quick Rebound
38 140 Payroll Employment 12-Month Running Totals Jobs (000s) '14 Apr Jul Oct '15 Apr Jul Oct '16 Apr Jul Oct '17 Apr Jul Oct '18 Apr July Oct '19 Source: Texas Workforce Commission
39 U.S. Rig Count 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 Working Rigs 1,200 1, Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Source: Baker Hughes
40 Energy Employment in Houston Jobs Lost Peak to Trough * Recouped To Date % Recouped Exploration & Production -22, Oilfield Services -20,800 9, Oilfield Equipment Mfg 18,000 5, Fab Metal Products -20,800 8, Engineering -11,200 5, * Peaks and troughs vary by sector Source: Greater Houston Partnership calculations based on Texas Workforce Commission data
41 West Texas Intermediate $ Per Barrel Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Source: U.S Energy Information Administration Crude Spot Price, Weekly Average
42 42
43 Source: Transwestern
44 Houston Retail Sales* 85 4-Quarter Moving Total 80 $ Billions Q1/10 Q1/11 Q1/12 Q1/13 Q1/14 Q1/15 Q1/16 Q1/17 Q1/18 Q1/19 Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts * excludes gasoline purchases
45 Houston Home Sales Month Moving Total 90 Units (000s) '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: Houston Association of Realtors
46 Houston Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing 35 Services 30 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: Institute for Supply Management - Houston
47 What s driving Houston s Economy?
48 U.S. Energy The energy business is profitable again.
49 Lost Money Financial Performance in Q3/16 Earned a Profit
50 Lost Money Financial Performance in Q3/18 Earned a Profit
51 U.S. Economy Strongest U.S. growth since Q4/14.
52 U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate, % Change from Previous Quarter '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
53 Trade remains robust.
54 Houston Customs District Traffic Month Moving Total Exports Imports $ Billions Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Source: WISERTrade
55 Population People continue to move to Houston.
56 Net Migration (000s) International Domestic '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
57 Corporate Relocations Companies continue to move to Houston.
58 Significant Relocations and Expansions
59 Construction
60 Construction Contracts ($ Billions) For the 12 months ending October of each year '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Source: Dodge Data & Analytics 60
61
62 U.S. Crude Output Million Barrels Per Day Jobs (000s) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (E.I.A.)
63 U.S. Crude Output vs. Houston Oil Jobs* 12.0 Crude Output Oil Jobs Million Barrels Per Day Jobs (000s) Source: U.S. E.I.A., Texas Workforce Commission * Exploration, oil field services, related manufacturing, engineering
64 Exports and GDP Exports Share of Houston GDP 17.3% 8.9% Source: The Brookings Institution '03 '17
65
66 Immigration Executive Order Enhancing Public Safety in the Interior of the United States Executive Order 13769, Protecting the Nation from Foreign Terrorist Entry into the United States Executive Order Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements Reforming American Immigration for Strong Employment Act Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Immigrant Investor Program (EB-5) H1-B Visas
67 Net Migration (000s) International Domestic '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
68 Houston Workforce Growth Approx. 600,000 residents joined local workforce ( 06 16) Native-Born Foreign-Born 338, ,350 Source: Partnership calculations based on U.S. Census Bureau data
69 A self-fulfilling prophesy?
70 Trade Tariffs, Higher Interest Rates Slowing Global Growth, OECD Says
71
72
73 NABE Outlook panelists continue to view the economy as having solid momentum entering 2019, but they foresee GDP growth cooling from 2.9% this year to 2.7% in 2019, said NABE President Kevin Swift...
74 Houston s 2019 Economic Outlook.
75 All align in Houston s favor Energy U.S. Expansion Global Growth* Net Migration Construction Consumer Confidence
76 Adding Jobs Employment Forecast for 19 Losing Jobs
77 Employment Forecast for 19 + Health Care + Wholesale + Construction + Oil and Gas + Administrative Support + Real Estate + Professional Services + Other Services + Manufacturing + Educational Services + Restaurants + Finance and Insurance + Retail + Arts & Entertainment + Government + Hotels + Transportation + Information
78 Employment Forecast for 19 71,000 Jobs
79 Houston Job Growth, 000s '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18* '19** Source: U.S. Bureau Labor Statistics * Though November 18 ** Partnership forecast
80 Extent of Revisions 48.6 Jobs (000s) '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Source: Partnership calculations based on U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data
81 Extent of Revisions 48.6 Jobs (000s) Job growth will still be well above trend '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
82 Employment Forecast for Health care Construction Administrative Support Jobs Added (000s) 7.2 Professional Services Manufacturing Restaurants Retail Government Source: Greater Houston Partnership Forecast
83 Employment Forecast for 19 Jobs Added (000s) Source: Greater Houston Partnership Forecast
84
85 Thank you
86 Houston Economic Outlook Prepared by Patrick Jankowski SVP Research
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