Houston Economic Overview Presented by Patrick Jankowski, SVP Research Greater Houston Partnership
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1 Houston Economic Overview Presented by Patrick Jankowski, SVP Research Greater Houston Partnership
2 Order of the Day
3 Order of the Day Rig count fell 80% Oil prices dropped 75% Energy layoffs spiked Office vacancies doubled Job growth was flat
4 Time to declare victory
5 West Texas Intermediate 80 Crude Spot Price* 70 $ Per Barrel Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19
6 U.S. Rig Count 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 Working Rigs 1,200 1, Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Source: Baker Hughes
7 Energy Employment in Houston Jobs Lost Recouped To Date % Recouped Exploration & Production -22, Oilfield Services -20,800 8, Oilfield Equipment Mfg 18,000 4, Fab Metal Products -20,800 8, Engineering -11,200 3, Source: Greater Houston Partnership Calculations based on Texas Workforce Commission data
8
9 140 Payroll Employment 12-Month Running Totals Jobs (000s) '14 Apr Jul Oct '15 Apr Jul Oct '16 Apr Jul Oct '17 Apr Jul Oct '18 Apr July Oct '19 Source: Texas Workforce Commission
10 In my 2016 forecast...
11 What Will the Recovery Look Like? X X Quick Rebound Slow, Gradual Rebound Wide Bottom, Then Quick Rebound
12 140 Payroll Employment 12-Month Running Totals Jobs (000s) '14 Apr Jul Oct '15 Apr Jul Oct '16 Apr Jul Oct '17 Apr Jul Oct '18 Apr July Oct '19 Source: Texas Workforce Commission
13 What s driving the Houston economy?
14 U.S. Energy The energy business is profitable again.
15 Lost Money Financial Performance in Q3/16 Earned a Profit
16 Lost Money Financial Performance in Q3/18 Earned a Profit
17 U.S. Economy Strongest U.S. growth since Q4/14.
18 U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate, % Change from Previous Quarter '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
19 U.S. Monthly Job Growth Jobs (000s) '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
20 Trade remains robust.
21 Houston Customs District Traffic Month Moving Total Exports Imports $ Billions Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Source: WISERTrade
22 Population Companies and people continue to move to Houston.
23 Houston Relocations and Expansions* '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Source: Site Selection Magazine *Created 50 jobs, absorbed 20,000+ square feet, or capex over $1 million
24 Net In-migration International Domestic Residents (000s) '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 06 data distorted due to Hurricane Katrina evacuees
25 Houstonians remain confident about the future.
26 Work Ethic in Houston "If you work hard in this city, eventually you will succeed. % Adults Agreeing With Statement '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey
27 Houston Leading Indictors Index 130 May 2005 = Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
28
29 Payroll Employment 12-Month Running Totals 128,700 jobs Jobs (000s) '14 Apr Jul Oct '15 Apr Jul Oct '16 Apr Jul Oct '17 Apr Jul Oct '18 Apr July Oct '19 Source: Texas Workforce Commission
30 Monthly Job Growth (000s) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Total 128.7
31 Monthly Job Growth (000s) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Total 128.7
32 Monthly Job Growth (000s) Best Q4 in Houston History 62.9 Jobs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Total Typical Q4 Growth = 29.6 Jobs
33 Next Three Best Finishes to the Year Height of the fracking boom Height of the sub-prime boom Middle of the dotcom/enron boom
34 Extent of Revisions 48.6 Jobs (000s) '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
35 Extent of Revisions 48.6 Jobs (000s) Job growth will still be well above trend '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
36
37 U.S. Crude Output vs. Houston Oil Jobs* 12.0 Crude Output Oil Jobs Million Barrels Per Day Jobs (000s) Source: US EIA, Texas Workforce Commission * Exploration, oil field services, related manufacturing, engineering
38 U.S. Crude Output vs. Houston Oil Jobs* 12.0 Crude Output Oil Jobs Million Barrels Per Day Jobs (000s) Source: US EIA, Texas Workforce Commission * Exploration, oil field services, related manufacturing, engineering
39 Exports and GDP Exports Share of Houston GDP 17.3% 8.9% Source: The Brookings Institution '03 '17
40
41 U.S. Industrial Production Index Index 2012 = '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System
42
43 Houston Workforce Growth Approx. 600,000 residents joined local workforce ( 06 16) Native-Born Foreign-Born 338, ,350 Source: Partnership calculations based on U.S. Census Bureau data
44 Executive Order Enhancing Public Safety in the Interior of the United States Executive Order 13769, Protecting the Nation from Foreign Terrorist Entry into the United States Executive Order Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements Reforming American Immigration for Strong Employment Act Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Immigrant Investor Program (EB-5) H1-B Visas
45 What about those Houston Texans?
46 AFC Standings at Mid-Season
47 CRE Standings as of Q3/18 %Vacant Rent Trend Construction % of Inventory Industrial Retail Multifamily Office 23.9* 1.2 * Direct and Indirect Space Source: Transwestern
48 Industrial Construction Millions of Square Feet Q2/13 Q4/13 Q2/14 Q4/14 Q2/15 Q4/15 Q2/16 Q4/16 Q2/17 Q4/17 Q2/18 Source: Transwestern
49 Retail Space Under Construction 6,000 Square Feet (000s) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Q1/10 Q1/11 Q1/12 Q1/13 Q1/14 Q1/15 Q1/16 Q1/17 Q1/18 Source: Transwestern
50 Multi-Family Construction Units Added 3,912 5,543 5,874 12,313 17,697 19,876 21,719 13,908 12,653 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 As of 11/1/18 Source: Apartment Data Services
51 Office Construction Million Square Feet Q3/10 Q3/11 Q3/12 Q3/13 Q3/14 Q3/15 Q3/16 Q3/17 Q3/18 Source: Transwestern
52 CRE Standings as of Q3/18 %Vacant Rent Trend Construction % of Inventory Industrial Retail Multifamily Office Sources: Various
53 So what should we be watching for?
54 Industrial Construction 12.2 Million Square Feet Pre-Leased 38% Speculative 62%
55 Single-Family New Home Sales MetroStudy 18 = 28, = 29,950 John Burns Consulting 18 = 29, = 31,700
56 Houston Job Growth, 000s '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 YTD Source: U.S. Bureau Labor Statistics
57 Employment in Office Leasing Sectors* Jobs (000s) '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: Partnership calculations based in U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data * Mining and Logging, Finance and Insurance, Professional and Technical Services, Management of Enterprises
58 So what might you expect?
59 Population Growth 7.0 Metro Houston 6.5 Population (Millions) '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
60 Job Growth Jobs, 000, '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 Source: Texas Workforce Commission
61 Economic Growth $ Billions (2009 Dollars) '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
62 If history is our guide In a normal year, Houston should add... 60,000 70,000 jobs 110, ,000 residents $10 - $15 billion in economic output
63 Bottom Line Houston is almost back to normal.
64 Thank you
65 Houston Economic Overview Presented by Patrick Jankowski, SVP Research Greater Houston Partnership
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