: trends and forecasts 2007 12 Daniel Jones Edited by Sarah Peake
2 Contents [1] Contents Slide no. 4. Document map Executive summary, purpose and scope 5. Executive summary: Middle Eastern trends 6. Executive summary: active subscriber and penetration forecast 7. Executive summary: country trends [1] 8. Executive summary: country trends [2] 9. Executive summary: country trends [3] 10. Purpose of report 11. Scope of report [1] 12. Scope of report [2] 13. Document map Market trends across the Middle East 14. Middle East: penetration 15. Middle East: ARPU 16. Middle East: regional trends [1] 17. Middle East: regional trends [2] 18. Middle East: mobile service revenue 19. Middle East: accounting for growth 20. Document map Bahrain 21. Bahrain: overview 22. Bahrain: penetration 23. Bahrain: customer mix 24. Bahrain: technology adoption 25. Bahrain: voice ARPU 26. Bahrain: non-voice ARPU Slide no. 27. Document map Egypt 28. Egypt: overview 29. Egypt: penetration 30. Egypt: customer mix 31. Egypt: technology adoption 32. Egypt: voice ARPU 33. Egypt: non-voice ARPU 34. Document map Jordan 35. Jordan: overview 36. Jordan: penetration 37. Jordan: customer mix 38. Jordan: technology adoption 39. Jordan: voice ARPU 40. Jordan: non-voice ARPU 41. Document map Kuwait 42. Kuwait: overview 43. Kuwait: penetration 44. Kuwait: customer mix 45. Kuwait: technology adoption 46. Kuwait: voice ARPU 47. Kuwait: non-voice ARPU 48. Document map Oman 49. Oman: overview 50. Oman: penetration 51. Oman: customer mix
3 Contents [2] Contents Slide no. 52. Oman: technology adoption 53. Oman: voice ARPU 54. Oman: non-voice ARPU 55. Document map Saudi Arabia 56. Saudi Arabia: overview 57. Saudi Arabia: penetration 58. Saudi Arabia: customer mix 59. Saudi Arabia: technology adoption 60. Saudi Arabia: voice ARPU 61. Saudi Arabia: non-voice ARPU 62. Document map United Arab Emirates 63. United Arab Emirates: overview 64. United Arab Emirates: penetration 65. United Arab Emirates: customer mix 66. United Arab Emirates: technology adoption 67. United Arab Emirates: voice ARPU 68. United Arab Emirates: non-voice ARPU 69. Document map Actions 70. Actions for operators [1] 71. Actions for operators [2] 72. Actions for vendors 73. Actions for investors 74. Document map Methodology 75. Top-down actual numbers and bottom-up forecasts 76. Key inputs and outputs for mobile forecast model Slide no. 77. Key inputs and outputs for service-level components of forecast model 78. Calculating active subscribers 79. Defining operator-billed and total mobile service revenue 80. Defining retail spend and average retail spend per user 81. Document map Author, copyright, glossary and list of figures and tables 82. Authors, Acknowledgements 83. Copyright, Disclaimer 84. Glossary of terms 85. List of figures and tables [1] 86. List of figures and tables [2] 87. List of figures and tables [3] 88. List of figures and tables [4] 89. Document map About Analysys reports and services 90. Reports from Analysys Research 91. Market intelligence services from Analysys Research 92. Custom research from Analysys Research 93. Analysys Consulting
85 Lists of figures and tables List of figures and tables [1] Figure 1: Active subscribers and penetration rates in the Middle East, 2001 12 Figure 2: Distribution of active mobile subscribers in the Middle East by country, December 2006 Figure 3: Penetration of active mobile subscribers in the Middle East, 2001 12 Figure 4: Blended ARPU by country in the Middle East, 2001 12 Figure 5: Total mobile revenue per capita compared to consumption per capita in the Middle East, by country, 2006 Figure 6: Total mobile revenue per capita compared to consumption per capita in the Middle East and Europe, by country, 2006 Figure 7: Total revenue from mobile services in the Middle East, 2001 12 Figure 8: Accounting for growth in mobile revenue in the Middle East, 2007 12 Figure 9: Penetration of active mobile subscribers in Bahrain, 2001 12 Figure 10: Active subscribers in Bahrain, 2001 12 Figure 11: Active subscriber net additions in Bahrain, 2001 12 Figure 12: Active subscribers by generation of mobile handset technology in Bahrain, 2001 12 Figure 13: Active subscriber net additions by generation of mobile handset technology in Bahrain, 2001 12 Figure 14: Voice ARPU in Bahrain, 2001 12 Figure 15: Non-voice ARPU and non-voice services as a percentage of total ARPU in Bahrain, 2001 12 Figure 16: Penetration of active mobile subscribers in Egypt, 2001 12 Figure 17: Active subscribers in Egypt, 2001 12
86 Lists of figures and tables List of figures and tables [2] Figure 18: Active subscriber net additions in Egypt, 2001 12 Figure 19: Active subscribers by generation of mobile handset technology in Egypt, 2001 12 Figure 20: Active subscriber net additions by generation of mobile handset technology in Egypt, 2001 12 Figure 21: Voice ARPU in Egypt, 2001 12 Figure 22: Non-voice ARPU and non-voice services as a percentage of total ARPU in Egypt, 2001 12 Figure 23: Penetration of active mobile subscribers in Jordan, 2001 12 Figure 24: Active subscribers in Jordan, 2001 12 Figure 25: Active subscriber net additions in Jordan, 2001 12 Figure 26: Active subscribers by generation of mobile handset technology in Jordan, 2001 12 Figure 27: Active subscriber net additions by generation of mobile handset technology in Jordan, 2001 12 Figure 28: Voice ARPU in Jordan, 2001 12 Figure 29: Non-voice ARPU and non-voice services as a percentage of total ARPU in Jordan, 2001 12 Figure 30: Penetration of active mobile subscribers in Kuwait, 2001 12 Figure 31: Active subscribers in Kuwait, 2001 12 Figure 32: Active subscriber net additions in Kuwait, 2001 12 Figure 33: Active subscribers by generation of mobile handset technology in Kuwait, 2001 12 Figure 34: Active subscriber net additions by generation of mobile handset technology in Kuwait, 2001 12 Figure 35: Voice ARPU in Kuwait, 2001 12 Figure 36: Non-voice ARPU and non-voice services as a percentage of total ARPU in Kuwait, 2001 12
87 Lists of figures and tables List of figures and tables [3] Figure 37: Penetration of active mobile subscribers in Oman, 2001 12 Figure 38: Active subscribers in Oman, 2001 12 Figure 39: Active subscriber net additions in Oman, 2001 12 Figure 40: Active subscribers by generation of mobile handset technology in Oman, 2001 12 Figure 41: Active subscriber net additions by generation of mobile handset technology in Oman, 2001 12 Figure 42: Voice ARPU in Oman, 2001 12 Figure 43: Non-voice ARPU and non-voice services as a percentage of total ARPU in Oman, 2001 12 Figure 44: Penetration of active mobile subscribers in Saudi Arabia, 2001 12 Figure 45: Active subscribers in Saudi Arabia, 2001 12 Figure 46: Active subscriber net additions in Saudi Arabia, 2001 12 Figure 47: Active subscribers by generation of mobile handset technology in Saudi Arabia, 2001 12 Figure 48: Active subscriber net additions by generation of mobile handset technology in Saudi Arabia, 2001 12 Figure 49: Voice ARPU in Saudi Arabia, 2001 12 Figure 50: Non-voice ARPU and non-voice services as a percentage of total ARPU in Saudi Arabia, 2001 12 Figure 51: Penetration of active mobile subscribers in the United Arab Emirates, 2001 12 Figure 52: Active subscribers in the United Arab Emirates, 2001 12 Figure 53: Active subscriber net additions in the United Arab Emirates, 2001 12 Figure 54: Active subscribers by generation of mobile handset technology in the United Arab Emirates, 2001 12
88 Lists of figures and tables List of figures and tables [4] Figure 55: Active subscriber net additions by generation of mobile handset technology in the United Arab Emirates, 2001 12 Figure 56: Voice ARPU in the United Arab Emirates, 2001 12 Figure 57: Non-voice ARPU and non-voice services as a percentage of total ARPU in the United Arab Emirates, 2001 12 Figure 58: Example of methodology for forecasting ARPU Figure 59: Key inputs and outputs for mobile forecast model Figure 60: Key inputs and outputs for service-level components of forecast model Figure 61: Key inputs and outputs for calculating active subscribers Figure 62: Total Middle Eastern mobile service revenue split by operator-billed and other, 2006 12 Figure 63: Total Middle Eastern mobile retail spend and interconnection revenue, 2006 12 Table 1: Total active mobile subscribers in Middle East by country, December 2006 Table 2: Operator summary, Bahrain Table 3: Operator summary, Egypt Table 4: Operator summary, Jordan Table 5: Operator summary, Kuwait Table 6: Operator summary, Oman Table 7: Operator summary, Saudi Arabia Table 8: Operator summary, United Arab Emirates
89 Document map Document map: About Analysys reports and services Executive summary, purpose and scope Market trends across the Middle East Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Oman Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Actions Methodology Author, copyright, glossary and list of figures and tables About Analysys reports and services
90 About Analysys reports and services Reports from Analysys Research Analysys Research s reports are designed to keep you up to date with industry developments and how they affect players in the telecoms value chain from fixed and mobile network operators, to software and equipment vendors, and content providers and distributors. Our reports will help you: explore the factors that are driving market evolution understand how industry trends will affect your business define and evaluate your strategic options using decision frameworks and scenarios identify where opportunities lie for future growth find out which players are currently successful and why. Our publication programme offers over 25 reports a year, covering all the key issues affecting the telecoms industry and the latest hot topics. Recent reports have provided expert analysis of such topics as mobile entertainment, wireless VoIP, triple play, enterprise mobile data services, mobile TV and radio, videotelephony, IPTV, outsourcing by telecoms operators and naked DSL. Each report is accompanied by an Excel spreadsheet containing the forecasts or other key data discussed in the report, presented in an easy-to-use format. All reports are offered with Analyst Support, allowing you direct consultation with the author. Shop online at http://research.analysys.com/store or, for information about our report subscription packages, please contact our Sales and Customer Service team on +44 (0)1223 460600 or email us at research@analysys.com.
91 About Analysys reports and services Market intelligence services from Analysys Research Analysys Research s online market intelligence services help you keep track of the latest developments in major telecoms markets worldwide. All our services are regularly updated and include a sophisticated range of interactive search, benchmarking and download tools. Analysys Research Fixed Networks and Services provides analysis of European operators and ISPs, country reports for 30 European markets, country market forecasts, commentary on industry trends and a module on the broadband market. Analysys Research Mobile Networks and Services provides insight into the strategies of key players worldwide, country reports for over 30 markets, 3G status reports for more than 50 countries, country market forecasts and analysis of industry trends. Analysys Research Next-Generation Telecoms IT includes an interactive contracts database, market size estimates and forecasts, trends papers covering the latest issues in telecoms IT and profiles of leading and up-and-coming vendors worldwide. Our Analyst Support package, which allows you direct consultation with our telecoms experts, is an ideal complement to your chosen market intelligence service. For more information on our services or a guided demonstration, please contact our Sales and Customer Service team on +44 (0)1223 460600, email us at research@analysys.com or visit our Web site at http://research.analysys.com.
92 About Analysys reports and services Custom Research from Analysys Research Analysys Research has developed its portfolio of Custom Research services in response to customer demand for bespoke market intelligence, when more data is needed than is found in an off-the-shelf report or database, when there are complex questions about specific companies or markets that need to be answered, or when analysis needs to be tailored. Custom Research can deliver real value when an organisation needs to answer specific questions about how it is positioned in the market, and how to optimise performance at various stages of the product or service lifecycle. For more information, or to discuss how we could help you to meet your specific information needs, please contact our Custom Research team on +44 (0)1223 460600 or email us at custom@analysys.com. Deeper, broader analysis; increased distillation Insight Analysis Structured information Data Structured analysis of service markets Bespoke company profiling News and event analysis Data and information collection Analyst support Market sizing and forecasting Expert survey and interview work Bespoke country profiling Large-scale primary research
93 About Analysys reports and services Analysys Consulting Analysys Consulting is a leading international telecoms and digital media consultancy. We draw on our unparalleled industry experience to deliver results that enable our clients to compete and grow in these markets, as well as to exploit new opportunities. Our experience, influence and unrivalled knowledge base are recognised globally which is why we have been involved in some of the world s largest telecoms projects and in transactions worth billions of dollars. For more than 20 years, we have helped shape the telecoms industry through our extensive work on policy, regulation and finance. We have worked with most of the sector s leading players, often at board level, to: determine strategy advise on merger and acquisition activity optimise tariffing of new and existing services identify and launch new business ventures improve profitability and cashflow by streamlining key operational processes. Analysys Consulting services include: strategy and marketing scenario planning and economic modelling due diligence licence awards mergers and acquisitions regulation interconnect spectrum pricing STEM (Strategic Telecoms Evaluation Model). For more information please contact: Europe/Middle East/Africa (head office): +44 (0)1223 460600, enquiries@analysys.com The Americas (regional headquarters): +1 202 331 3080, enquiriesamerica@analysys.com Asia Pacific region (regional headquarters): +65 6866 3203, enquiriesasia@analysys.com.