RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT WIRELESS NETWORK DATA TRAFFIC: WORLDWIDE TRENDS AND FORECASTS 2016 2021 STEPHEN WILSON Analysys Mason Limited 2017 analysysmason.com
About this report This report presents 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic worldwide, in eight regions and selected countries. It analyses the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic. The forecast dataset underpinning this report covers: mobile data: data delivered over cellular networks to: handsets; mid-screen devices (typically tablets); USB modems, routers and other standalone data devices; median usage per smartphone; and downstream and upstream Wi-Fi data: data delivered over private Wi-Fi connections (at home or work) to handsets and mid-screen devices, and data delivered to all devices using public Wi-Fi connectivity. WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT Executives in strategy departments of mobile and fixed operators that want to understand future dynamics in wireless network traffic, as well as future enablers of, and barriers to, growth. Executives in strategy departments of network equipment vendors that need to understand how quickly wireless traffic will grow across different markets and thus, where demand for their products may be greatest. Geographical coverage Regions modelled: Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Developed Asia Pacific (DVAP) Emerging Asia Pacific (EMAP) Latin America (LATAM) Middle East and North Africa (MENA) North America (NA) Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Western Europe (WE) In addition, 33 countries and the Nordic region are modelled individually Major KPIs Mobile data Total volume and average usage for: handsets mid-screen devices USB modems and routers Traffic split by: public and private usage median usage per smartphone downstream and upstream Wi-Fi data Total volume and average usage for: handsets mid-screen devices, split by mobile-connected and Wi-Fi-only devices laptops (public Wi-Fi connectivity only) Traffic split by public and private usage Analysys Mason Limited 2017 2
Contents [1] 7. Worldwide trends 8. Worldwide: The rate of growth for cellular data traffic will slow considerably during the forecast period 9. Worldwide: Rapid 4G adoption in China and India is driving worldwide growth of cellular data traffic 10. Worldwide: Even in 2021, there will still be some correlation between income levels and monthly handset usage 11. Worldwide: dongle and router traffic is not set to account for a large proportion of traffic across most emerging markets 12. Worldwide: Public Wi-Fi traffic s share of total out-of-home traffic is declining in developed markets 13. Worldwide: There continues to be little correlation between cellular data traffic growth and operator revenue 14. Worldwide: Removing unlimited throttled speed prepaid data quotas can significantly reduce traffic, but its commercial impact has been mixed 15. Worldwide: Offering unlimited throttled speed for video traffic need not increase video traffic and could be a significant differentiator 16. Western Europe 17. Western Europe: Data usage per head of population lags behind other developed regions 18. Western Europe: Competitive constraints will limit traffic growth in some Western European markets 19. Central and Eastern Europe 20. Central and Eastern Europe: Polish cellular data traffic growth has been driven by fixed wireless LTE 21. Central and Eastern Europe: Annual growth rates across the region will converge by 2021 22. Middle East and North Africa 23. Middle East and North Africa: GCC markets are showing solid rates of growth 24. Middle East and North Africa: There is still significant potential for traffic growth in the region 25. Sub-Saharan Africa 26. Sub-Saharan Africa: The rate of data traffic growth is being driven by an increase in usage per data subscriber 27. Sub-Saharan Africa: Data traffic and revenue growth is constrained by device affordability issues 28. Emerging Asia Pacific 29. Emerging Asia Pacific: Growth rates have been highest in China, India and Indonesia 30. Emerging Asia Pacific: The region will continue to lead in global cellular data traffic growth rates in 2017 31. Developed Asia Pacific 32. Developed Asia Pacific: Markets in the DVAP region do not all share the same characteristics 33. Developed Asia Pacific: Annual growth rates per 4G smartphone are already quite low in the region 34. North America 35. North America: Increased competition will spur traffic growth in the USA; reported cellular data traffic growth in the USA has been erratic Analysys Mason Limited 2017 3
Contents [2] 36. North America: Increased competition will spur traffic growth in the USA 37. Latin America 38. Latin America: The rates of traffic growth varied widely across the region in 2015 39. Latin America: The rates for cellular traffic growth will peak in 2016 40. Forecast methodology and assumptions 41. Forecast methodology and assumptions 42. Definition of geographical regions [1] 43. Definition of geographical regions [2] 44. About the author and Analysys Mason 45. About the author 46. Analysys Mason s consulting and research are uniquely positioned 47. Research from Analysys Mason 48. Consulting from Analysys Mason Analysys Mason Limited 2016 4
List of figures [1] Figure 1: Cellular data traffic, by region, 2014 2021 Figure 2: Share of traffic over 2G/3G and 4G and higher devices, worldwide, emerging and developed economies, 2014 2021 Figure 3: Cellular data traffic, worldwide, developed economies and emerging economies, 2014 2021, Analysys Mason 2015 and 2016 forecasts Figure 4: Monthly data traffic per handset against GDP per capita, 2021, selected countries worldwide Figure 5: Dongle and router share of total cellular data traffic, selected countries, 2016 and 2021 Figure 6: South Korea s public Wi-Fi traffic carried through operators networks, year-on-year growth, 1Q 2014 3Q 2016 Figure 7: Year-on-year mobile data traffic growth, overall retail revenue growth and data revenue growth, worldwide, 2014 2016 Figure 8: Year-on-year mobile data revenue and cellular data traffic by developed market region, 2015 and 2016 Figure 9: Telefonica Brasil data traffic and net mobile service revenue year-onyear growth, 1Q 2014-4Q 2015 Figure 10: Ratio of data consumption by video resolution format (144p = 1) Figure 11: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected Western Europe markets, 2014 2017 Figure 12: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected Western Europe markets, 2015 and 2016 Figure 13: Cellular data traffic, Western Europe, by market, 2014 2021 Figure 14: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected Central and Eastern Europe markets, 2014 2017 Figure 15: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected Central and Eastern Europe markets, 2015 and 2016 Figure 16: Cellular data traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, by market, 2014 2021 Figure 17: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected MENA markets, 2014 2017 Figure 18: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected MENA markets, 2015 and 2016 Figure 19: Cellular data traffic, MENA, by market, 2014 2021 Figure 20: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected SSA markets, 2014 2017 Figure 21: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected SSA markets, 2015 and 2016 Figure 22: Cellular data traffic, SSA, by market, 2014 2021 Figure 23: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected emerging Asia- Pacific markets, 2014 2017 Figure 24: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected emerging Asia-Pacific markets, 2015 and 2016 Figure 25: Cellular data traffic, emerging Asia-Pacific, by market, 2014 2021 Figure 26: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected developed Asia- Pacific markets, 2014 2017 Figure 27: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected developed Asia-Pacific markets, 2015 and 2016 Analysys Mason Limited 2017 5
List of figures [2] Figure 28: Cellular data traffic, developed Asia-Pacific, by market, 2014 2021 Figure 29: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, Canada and the USA, 2014 2017 Figure 30: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, Canada and North America, 2015 and 2016 Figure 31: Cellular data traffic, North America, by market, 2014 2021 Figure 32: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected Latin American markets, 2014 2017 Figure 33: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected Latin American markets, 2015 and 2016 Figure 34: Cellular data traffic, Latin America, by market, 2014 2021 Figure 35a: Regional breakdown used in this report Figure 35b: Regional breakdown used in this report Analysys Mason Limited 2017 6
Worldwide: The rate of growth for cellular data traffic will slow considerably during the forecast period The rate of annual growth worldwide will decline persistently over the forecast period, falling from 78% in 2015 to 30% in 2021. Across all developed market regions, the annual growth rate in 2021 will reach 20%. Figure 1: Cellular data traffic, by region, 2014 2021 This decline in growth helps to explain why there will be no dramatic growth in the mobile share of total Internet traffic. In 2021, mobile s share of Internet traffic will stand at 10.5% for emerging markets and only 6.0% for developed markets. The most dramatic change at a regional level will be the emerging Asia Pacific s (EMAP s) increasing share of cellular data traffic worldwide, which will grow from 25% in 2015 to 46% in 2021. This growth explains the rising significance of emerging markets in the worldwide data traffic forecast: emerging markets will account for 61% of traffic in 2021, compared with only 35% in 2015. Developed Asia Pacific s (DVAP s) share of worldwide cellular data traffic will fall by the most percentage points of any region, accounting for just 9% of the total in 2021, compared with 19% in 2015. This trajectory is linked with the fact that some markets are already showing signs of saturation, although the point of saturation appears to be different in different countries in the region. The increasing importance of emerging markets to global cellular traffic is partly driven by the growing importance of 4G in these countries. In 2015, the share of traffic over 4G and higher devices accounted for only 35% of emerging market traffic, but this will increase to 86% by 2021. Figure 2: Share of traffic over 2G/3G and 4G and higher devices, worldwide, emerging and developed economies, 2014 2021 Analysys Mason Limited 2017 8
Worldwide: Rapid 4G adoption in China and India is driving worldwide growth of cellular data traffic Our forecasts for both developed and emerging markets predict higher growth in cellular data traffic than we forecast in 2016. Figure 3: Cellular data traffic, worldwide, developed economies and emerging economies, 2014 2021, Analysys Mason 2015 and 2016 forecasts Cellular data traffic in emerging markets will be 20% higher in 2020 than in our 2015 forecasts. This is partly because traffic in China will be one third higher than previously forecast. This reflects the very rapid migration to 4G, fuelled by substantial investment by mobile network operators (MNOs). For example, 59% of China Mobile s base used 4G, compared with 32% at end October 2015 and 7% at end October 2014 In India, 4G adoption was more rapid in 2016 than 2015, again due to the increasing affordability of 4G devices and strong take-up of 4G-only player Reliance Jio s initial free, unlimited data offer, which had attracted 50 million users by the end of November 2016 and has now been extended to the end of 1Q 2017. In developed markets, the most notable change to our previous forecast is in the USA, where significantly more growth is expected between 2016 and 2021. We believe the 2014 figures reported by the CTIA were an aberration, with much stronger growth reported for 2015 by CTIA. Our new data for Taiwan shows it has the highest cellular data usage per head of population of any country worldwide. Our forecasts for Western Europe are broadly similar, demonstrating a lack of disruptive players in many markets in the region. We are not forecasting M2M traffic separately this year because this activity is usually screen-based in vehicle entertainment and true M2M traffic remains low. Analysys Mason Limited 2016 9
CONTENTS WORLDWIDE TRENDS REGIONAL TRENDS WESTERN EUROPE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EMERGING ASIA PACIFIC DEVELOPED ASIA PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON Analysys Mason Limited 2017 44
About the author Stephen Wilson (Principal Analyst) contributes research to our Fixed Networks and Wireless Networks research programmes. He joined Analysys Mason as a Senior Analyst in November 2012, having previously worked for Informa Telecoms & Media. Stephen has more than 5 years of experience of covering the telecoms industry and specialises in analysing fixed broadband access technologies and strategies, as well as developments in European telecoms markets across fixed and mobile sectors. He has produced reports on DSL acceleration technologies as well as regular updates on European markets, notably in Central and Eastern Europe. Stephen is a graduate in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from St Catherine's College, Oxford University. Analysys Mason Limited 2017 45
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