The Internet of Things is Now: M2M Devices Forecast 2013-2018 Cisco Visual Networking Index 2014 Forecast Robert Pepper Vice President, Global Technology Policy October 2014
VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth Projected in 2010 Actual 60 50 50 51 Exabytes per Month 40 30 20 10 0 IP Traffic in 2013 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 2
Average Global Traffic per Device Growth 2013 2018 M2M Module = 78 MB 514 MB Smartphone = 1.0 GB 5.4 GB Tablet = 4.0 GB 18.0 GB Laptop/PC = 22.7 GB 39.2 GB Ultra High Definition TV = 22.9 GB* 26.3 GB* * Includes IP VoD Traffic Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 3
Global Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M More than a Third of the Total Connections Billions of Devices 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 11% CAGR Other Portable Devices (5.2%,4.1%) Tablets (2.3%,5.0%) PCs (12.2%,7.0%) TV (10.0%,12.8%) Non-Smartphones (37.6%,16.8%) Smartphones (14.1%,19.1%) 0.0 M2M (18.6%,35.2%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 4
US Connected Devices Growth by Type Fastest Growing Devices: M2M and Tablets Billions of Devices 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 12% CAGR Other Portable Devices (12.4%,6.3%) Tablets (4.9%,6.3%) PCs (17.5%,8.2%) TV (22.9%,23.3%) Non-Smartphones (6.2%,0.1%) Smartphones (10.9%,8.9%) 0.0 M2M (25.2%,46.8%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 5
Western Europe Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M Nearly Half of the Total Connections Billions of Devices 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 11% CAGR Other Portable Devices (10.5%,7.4%) Tablets (3.5%,6.5%) PCs (16.8%,8.7%) TV (14.3%,15.6%) Non-Smartphones (14.5%,0.4%) Smartphones (13.8%,14.4%) 0.0 M2M (26.6%,47.0%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 6
CEE Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M Over a Third of the Total Connections Billions of Devices 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 10% CAGR Other Portable Devices (4.7%,5.4%) Tablets (1.8%,7.2%) PCs (12.4%,7.8%) TV (3.9%,8.8%) Non-Smartphones (43.4%,13.4%) Smartphones (15.2%,21.7%) M2M (18.5%,35.7%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 7
Latin America Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M and Smartphones Over Half of the Total Connections Billions of Devices 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 9% CAGR Other Portable Devices (3.1%,4.4%) Tablets (1.4%,4.8%) PCs (14.9%,9.1%) TV (4.4%,13.3%) Non-Smartphones (47.3%,17.5%) Smartphones (14.1%,24.2%) M2M (14.7%,26.7%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 8
MEA Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, Smartphones Nearly A Third of the Total Connections Billions of Devices 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 9% CAGR Other Portable Devices (1.7%,2.2%) Tablets (1.0%,4.0%) PCs (5.2%,4.2%) TV (1.4%,3.4%) Non-Smartphones (69.3%,43.3%) Smartphones (14.8%,29.7%) 0.0 M2M (6.7%,13.2%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 9
Emerging Asia Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, Non-Smartphones Dominate; But Growth in Smartphones, M2M Billions of Devices 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 Other Portable Devices (2.7%,2.6%) Tablets (1.9%,4.1%) PCs (8.7%,5.9%) TVs (4.8%,7.8%) Non-Smartphones (62.6%,41.3%) Smartphones (11.5%,21.9%) M2M (7.8%,16.3%) Note: Emerging Asia covers Asia but excludes the largest economies (China, Japan, Korea, India, Indonesia) 8% CAGR 10
Japan Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M and Smartphones Over 77% of the Total Connections Billions of Devices 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 15% CAGR Other Portable Devices (4.4%,3.1%) Tablets (1.9%,3.0%) PCs (14.6%,7.0%) TVs (10.8%,8.8%) Non-Smartphones (14.2%,0.3%) Smartphones (11.1%,12.7%) 0.0 M2M (42.9%,65.3%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 11
Korea Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M Over Two-Thirds of Devices Billions of Devices 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 14% CAGR Other Portable Devices (3.5%,2.0%) Tablets (2.4%,2.8%) PCs (11.6%,4.7%) TVs (10.7%,10.7%) Non-Smartphones (5.4%,0.1%) Smartphones (18.9%,12.4%) M2M (47.5%,67.3%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 12
India Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, Smartphones, Tablets and M2M Growing Fastest Billions of Devices 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 8% CAGR Other Portable Devices (1.2%,2.0%) Tablets (0.9%,4.2%) PCs (4.2%,3.1%) TVs (4.7%,11.9%) Non-Smartphones (72.8%,34.6%) Smartphones (11.5%,34.5%) M2M (4.7%,9.8%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 13
China Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M Growing Fastest Billions of Devices 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 12% CAGR Other Portable Devices (2.6%,2.3%) Tablets (1.6%,3.7%) PCs (12.4%,7.0%) TVs (11.7%,12.2%) Non-Smartphones (32.7%,17.8%) Smartphones (18.5%,17.4%) M2M (20.5%,39.6%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 14
Global IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 57% of Global IP Traffic Exabytes per Month 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 21% CAGR Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.1%) Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.4%) M2M (0.4%,2.8%) Tablets (2.2%,14.0%) Smartphones (3.5%,16.3%) TV (26.5%,23.6%) 0 PCs (67.2%,42.8%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 15
USA IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 71% of US IP Traffic Exabytes per Month 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 20% CAGR Non-Smartphones (0.0%,0.0%) Other Portable Devices (0.0%,0.2%) M2M (0.2%,2.0%) Tablets (3.9%,18.8%) Smartphones (3.5%,9.9%) TV (45.5%,39.9%) PCs (46.9%,29.1%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 16
WE IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive Over Half of WE IP Traffic Exabytes per Month 25 20 15 10 5 18% CAGR Non-Smartphones (0.0%,0.0%) Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.4%) M2M (0.4%,3.4%) Tablets (1.9%,15.4%) Smartphones (2.7%,12.8%) TV (22.4%,20.9%) 0 PCs (72.4%,47.1%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 17
CEE IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 50% of CEE IP Traffic Exabytes per Month 12 10 8 6 4 2 23% CAGR Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.2%) Other Portable Devices (0.0%,0.5%) M2M (0.3%,2.9%) Tablets (1.5%,16.3%) Smartphones (3.4%,21.9%) TV (6.1%,8.6%) 0 PCs (88.6%,49.5%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 18
Latin America IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive Nearly 40% of LATAM IP Traffic 21% CAGR Exabytes per Month 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.1%) Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.5%) M2M (0.2%,2.0%) Tablets (1.0%,9.4%) Smartphones (2.3%,13.9%) TV (5.3%,12.7%) PCs (91.1%,61.4%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 19
MEA IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive Nearly Half of MEA IP Traffic Exabytes per Month 6 5 4 3 2 1 38% CAGR Non-Smartphones (0.5%,0.9%) Other Portable Devices (0.0%,0.4%) M2M (0.3%,1.7%) Tablets (1.5%,10.7%) Smartphones (8.8%,32.2%) TV (4.1%,3.4%) 0 PCs (84.8%,50.7%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 20
Emerging Asia IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, PCs Still Driving two-thirds of Emerging Asia s IP Traffic Exabytes per Month 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 Non-Smartphones (0.2%,0.5%) Other Portable Devices (0.2%,0.4%) M2M (0.1%,1.3%) Tablets (1.2%,7.3%) Smartphones (2.3%,19.8%) TV (3.9%,5.5%) PCs (92.1%,65.1%) Note: Emerging Asia covers Asia but excludes the largest economies (China, Japan, Korea, India, Indonesia) 19% CAGR 21
Japan IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive Nearly 70% of Japan s IP Traffic 27% CAGR Exabytes per Month 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Non-Smartphones (0.5%,0.0%) Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.4%) M2M (1.3%,5.5%) Tablets (2.6%,17.7%) Smartphones (12.3%,33.7%) TV (23.6%,12.2%) PCs (59.6%,30.5%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 22
Korea IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive Nearly Two-Thirds of India s IP Traffic Exabytes per Month 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 15% CAGR Non-Smartphones (0.0%,0.0%) Other Portable Devices (0.0%,0.2%) M2M (0.5%,3.6%) Tablets (1.3%,8.3%) Smartphones (3.4%,19.1%) TV (7.7%,10.2%) 0 PCs (87.0%,58.6%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 23
India IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive Nearly Two-Thirds of India s IP Traffic 4 39% CAGR Non-Smartphones (0.7%,0.5%) Exabytes per Month 3 2 1 Other Portable Devices (0.6%,1.5%) M2M (0.3%,1.1%) Tablets (0.9%,8.0%) Smartphones (8.4%,40.7%) TV (13.3%,13.7%) 0 PCs (75.8%,34.5%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 24
China IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices Over Half of Traffic 19% CAGR Exabytes per Month 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.1%) Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.3%) M2M (0.4%,3.6%) Tablets (0.6%,7.6%) Smartphones (1.4%,10.2%) TV (34.3%,32.7%) PCs (63.2%,45.5%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013 2018 25
Technical and Policy Issues Remain Some More Relevant to Cities than Others Technical Policy Reliability Scaling Electrical Power Standards & Interoperability Privacy & Security Spectrum & Bandwidth Constraints Cross-border data traffic Legacy Regulatory Models 26
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