Regional Real Estate Trends Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Director, Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University April 6, 2018
140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 - (20.0) (40.0) (60.0) Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 2000 2017, MSA Feb -7.0%. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.
Thousands 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40 Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 2010 2018, MSA % Chg Inv Inventory 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Feb -7.0% Source: Bright MLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.
16,000 Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through Feb 2018 14,000 12,000 10,000 12-Month Moving Average 8,000 6,000 4,000 4,851 Feb 2018 2,000 0 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999
3,000 Washington MSA Building Permits 2011 2018, 3-Month Moving Avg 2,500 2,000 1,500 Jan 1,529 1,000 500 0 Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
80% 60% (000s) MOTY Change in Existing Sales and Permits Washington MSA (12 month Moving Average) Permits Existing Home Sales 40% 20% 0% -20% -40%
(000s) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 (000s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $400 K Feb 2018
% 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4 4 2 9 5 7 3 5 5 3 6 Average Home Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Northern Virginia 10 13 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 8 10 2 6 4 5 1 3 1 2 2 4-1 2 4 5 8 4 4 0 2 0 0-1 2 3 2-4 -2 0 0 2-1 1 0 0 1 0-1 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2-6 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 7 2 4 0 Feb = $464K
(%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (000s) $800 20 Average Home Sales Price Northern VA - Single Family Detached 15 10 5 0-5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Feb 2018 = $618,154, -2.7%
(%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (000s) $500 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 Average Home Sales Price Northern VA - Single Family Attached $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Feb 2018= $449,668, + 4.7%
(%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (000s) $400 25 Average Home Sales Price Northern VA - Condos 20 15 10 5 0-5 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50-10 $0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Feb 2018 = $325,513, + 6.0%
Population Change Elements of population change in Loudoun County 14,000 Net Domestic Migration Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 4,985 5,026 6,440 5,618 5,253 5,056 5,392 2,219 2,317 2,235 2,327 2,552 2,574 2,535 Grew 3.1 % in 2017 4 th in VA in terms of percentage, 1 st in absolute number 2,000 3,995 3,939 3,790 3,954 3,966 3,942 3864 0 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V2017
February Active Listings Loudoun County 1,753-41.8% 1,190 1,268 1,287-32.1% 6.6% 1.5% 1,622 1,371 1,208 1,040 1,067 868 34.3% -15.5% -19.2% 16.2% -22.2% -18.6% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Percent change in February Inventories 2018 vs. 2017 Loudoun County 20.7% 7.7% -13.5% -15.0% -17.0% -17.7% -18.7% -35.9% -36.6% 20164 Sterling (35) 20165 Sterling (42) 20105 Aldie (154) 20147 Ashburn (68) 20148 Ashburn (112) 20152 Chantilly (51) Loudoun County (868) 20176 Leesburg (100) 20175 Leesburg (64) *February 2018 totals in parenthesis
February Closed Home Sales Loudoun County 328 273 273 278 297 285 326 362 352 334 5.5% -16.8% 0.0% 1.8% 6.8% -4.0% 14.4% 11.0% -2.8% -5.1% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Percent change in February sales 2017 vs. 2016 Loudoun County 20.7% 14.0% 6.5% 2.9% -5.1% -21.1% -24.4% -28.2% -46.2% 20148 Ashburn (35) 20147 Ashburn (57) 20105 Aldie (33) 20175 Leesburg (36) Loudoun County (334) 20176 Leesburg (45) 20165 Sterling (31) 20164 Sterling (28) 20152 Chantilly (21) *February 2018 totals in parenthesis
February New Listings Loudoun County 564 528 526 618 649 631 750 714 726 674-37.5% -6.4% -0.4% 17.5% 5.0% -2.8% 18.9% -4.8% 1.7% -7.2% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Percent change in February New Listings 2017 vs. 2016 Loudoun County 16.9% 4.2% 1.7% -6.5% -7.2% -8.5% -9.2% -22.5% -33.9% 20105 Aldie (76) 20148 Ashburn (99) 20165 Sterling (60) 20147 Ashburn (101) Loudoun County (674) 20152 Chantilly (54) 20175 Leesburg (59) 20164 Sterling (38) 20176 Leesburg (78) *February 2018 totals in parenthesis
February Median Days on Market Loudoun County 63 59 65 58-16 19 40 46-13 35-11 40 5 25-7 17 13-44 -41-11 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Median Days-on-Market 2017 vs. 2016 Loudoun County Feb-17 Feb-18 44 37 6 4 4 14 6 11 7 16 17 12 13 12 14 10 18 22 20148 Ashburn 20152 Chantilly 20175 Leesburg 20147 Ashburn 20164 Sterling Loudoun County 20105 Aldie 20165 Sterling 20176 Leesburg
Average Sales to Original List Price Ratio 2017 vs. 2016 Loudoun County Feb-17 Feb-18 100.3 100.2 99.7 99.6 98.8 98.5 98.9 98.8 98.3 98.5 97.5 98.2 98.2 98.1 98.0 97.0 98.4 97.6 20152 Chantilly 20148 Ashburn 20165 Sterling 20105 Aldie 20164 Sterling 20175 Leesburg Loudoun County 20176 Leesburg 20147 Ashburn
Loudoun County Home Prices and Sales Median Sales Price Closed Sales Feb-18 Feb-17 YoY Feb-18 Feb-17 YoY 20105, Aldie $475,000 $429,900 10.50% 33 31 6.50% 20148, Ashburn $465,000 $560,100-17.00% 35 29 20.70% 20147, Ashburn $455,000 $397,500 14.50% 57 50 14.00% 20176, Leesburg $452,500 $420,000 7.70% 45 57-21.10% 20165, Sterling $450,000 $452,000-0.40% 31 41-24.40% Loudoun County $449,000 $423,250 6.10% 334 352-5.10% 20152, Chantilly $418,000 $391,000 6.90% 21 39-46.20% 20175, Leesburg $405,000 $465,000-12.90% 36 35 2.90% 20164, Sterling $367,500 $327,500 12.20% 28 39-28.20% *ZIP codes with <20 February sales excluded
Building Permits Issued Loudoun County Building Permits Issued 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Single-Family Multi-Family 31.8% YOY growth in February 15.2% average monthly growth over the past year, 1% in 2016 0.8% in 2015-23% in 2014 1,000 0 Source: US Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Source: Cushman and Wakefield, Q4 2017 Loudoun County Office Market Absorption, Deliveries, Vacancy Rate
Source: Cushman and Wakefield, Q4 2017 Loudoun County Office Market Asking Rent
Office Vacancy Rates Northern VA 2015 2016 2017 Northern Virginia 21.2% 21.3% 21.6% Arlington County 22.9% 22.8% 21.6% City of Alexandria 25.0% 23.5% 26.3% Fairfax County 19.7% 20.5% 20.4% Loudoun County 20.3% 18.2% 14.2% Source: Cushman and Wakefield, Q4 2017
In Summary Inventory remains tight Price pressure continues Loudoun County is growing New construction coming online Office vacancy is low SALT tax impacts on the tolerance for new residential development.
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