Predictive models for accidents on urban links - A focus on vulnerable road users
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1 Predictive models for accidents on urban links - A focus on vulnerable road users Jonsson, Thomas Published: Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Jonsson, T. (25). Predictive models for accidents on urban links - A focus on vulnerable road users Department of Technology and Society, Lund University General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. L UNDUNI VERS I TY PO Box L und
2 Download date: 21. Jul. 218
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8 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS SUMMARY I 1 INTRODUCTION Background Purpose and scope of the study Structure 3 2 THEORIES AND CONCEPTS IN TRAFFIC SAFETY What is traffic safety and how can we measure it? Traffic safety concepts The Haddon Matrix Exposure, risk, consequence Variables affecting safety Exposure Risk Consequence ACCIDENT MODELS Introduction Applications Structure of the models Accident statistics General structure Combining predicted values and accident history Division into sub-models Variables included in the models Traffic flow in accident models Model structure The DRAG family of accident models Hypotheses Exposure for vulnerable road users Vehicle speeds Division of models according to accident type METHODOLOGY Measuring of vehicle speeds Measuring of vulnerable road users exposure Number of pedestrians and bicyclists Crossing pattern of vulnerable road users Separation of bicyclists along the street Accident modelling Accidents as statistical phenomenon Generalised Linear Models Modelling procedure The low mean problem Mass significance Uncertainties in independent variables... 38
9 5 DATA Field studies Municipalities for field studies Link division Basic data Traffic environment Traffic characteristics Accident data Injury definitions Accident data for the six municipalities RESULTS AND ANALYSIS General modelling results Correlation between variables Scale factors Outliers Accident models Bicyclist models Pedestrian models Vehicle-Vehicle models Vehicle -Single models Actual speeds vs. speed limit Model fit Outliers Preset effects of speed Exposure of vulnerable road users VRU exposure vs. Vehicle Flow Models for VRU accidents without VRU exposure Combined exposure variables vs. divided variables Test of discrete levels of risk for bicyclists Dividing vehicle accidents into single vehicle and multiple vehicle accidents Comparison between existing and developed models Comparability between models Comparing developed models with models only containing EVA variables Validity of the models 91 7 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS Verification of hypotheses Exposure of vulnerable road users Actual speeds vs. Speed limit Separating Vehicle-Vehicle and Vehicle-Single accidents Contribution to scientific knowledge Assessing the safety situation for vulnerable road users The use of preset parameters for exposure variables The use of speeds in predictive accident models Implications for practice Model choice Application of the models Need for data on vulnerable road users exposure Vulnerable road users safety... 14
10 7.4 Implications for research Lessons learned Future research needs REFERENCES 17
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22 B Table 2 The Haddon matrix, Haddon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
23 ", ' / ' 4 ) 1 ) ) ' / ) ) ) * ' ' / ',,' / ) ',.' ' 7-& + 2 ', ' L & ' 5 4 ) &, ' 1 ) ) ' / ) * ' & 1 ' ' ' &,' /.' ' ' 5 1.,,' ' 1 4 ' 1 ) ) ' / ) ) ) * ) ' ',,&,& ', 1 ) ) ' / ) * ) ' 5 ) & ) & & & *' -1 4 ' 5 ' ) & ' & *', ' 4 1 ) ) ' / ) *' ' ',,& +' / / / ) /,' 4 2 +' *' &,,' * ' 1 -&., *1 4 ' 5!' & *./ ) ) ' / ',,& ) * &,&. *) ) ) * ).' *1 & ' & 5!),& ' - ) / ' & *.-,+ ',) ) ' ' ) 2.' /,) ) ' *-),& ',& 4 ' / / /,' 5 & +) ' 8/,) ) ' '.-' ),& 1 4 ',) ) ' + ' ' 2 & 1 / +7-' + & ) 1 5' & ' '.,5 ' ',+) ' ). '.2,, ' ). / '.-' ), & + ) ) *' &,1.4,) ) ' ' ' ). 1 & 4 '.-' ), & 5 B 4 +,) ) & ' 2 ', ), ' +', ) ',,& ) 1 ' ) & +1 1 & ),) ) &,4 / ' /,) ) ' *-),& +1 & 1 & ).) ).* 1 &., ' &.5! ' 1 ', ) ) ' ) 1 *),'.,1 4 ',) ) ' & ' ' / ' 5 ; ' & ' *./ 1./ ' & ) ) & & 4 /,,& 8& / ) - L & -.' & 1 1 *.+1 & 2,),& & & L & -.' / *). & ' * & ' *5 " ) (! " 1 ) ) 7-& ),&,' -' & ' + ).' /.1 ' / ) ) ) 4 5!' ' / ) ) ) 4.'.,& 7-,2 +1 &.' ' 1 4 ',& 5 ) ) ) 4 ',1 ' / 1 7-' ' /.) ' ' ) ),' 2 OO$+%G,R' OO+E&. OO +1 5 ) ) ) 4.' 1 ) 4 ', ) 4 ) & ' 1,& 5!' ) - -,-' ' I & *,' ' ' / & ' 1,&.) '., ', 4 & 1 ) 4 ',) 4 ) & ' 1,& ) ) 7-&, *-),' 5 ) 4 ' 4 4 *+1 ' -.*' ) 4 1 ) 7-& +1 & ' ',*+- ' 4 ' ' ' 1 4 ',& ' 4 ' ) ) ) 4 ' 5 ' 1 ' 1 7-& ',2 5? ' 2 ' / ) 4 ' /.) ' &,.& ) 7-& +4 ' ' '...1 ' ' ) ' ' / ) 4 &,.& ) 7-& B & + / R O::+%G,R' OO5!' ) 4.' ' ' '.7& ) -& ' 2 ) 4 ', ' ' / ) 4 ' 1 7-,' ) & ' & ' ),' 56.7& ),' *-4 ),) ) ' 7-&.& 5 :
24 ' 1 4 ' ) 4 ',' &.1 ) -' ' I & *,' ' ' 2 ','.,.. ',,1 ' / -& *' +4 -&, 4 ' 4 ' -',1 *-4 ) & ' ' 4 7-' ' ) ) 4 / *. ' &,OO$ 4 ' *) +O 5 ' / 1 ' ' ' ' 1 4 ' 7-& ',) * ' ) 1 * 1 * 2.' OO(' &,*) 7-& ',2 5 &,* 4, 2 ) ',,& 1 * 4 / ' ) ' */.) 4 ) 1 * ' / ) 4 ;/ & ', 1 * - -' ), 5? ' ) 4 ) 1 * / + ',., -' ) 1 * ' 4 ' ) 4.5!',' 4 -,/ -1 1 *) ' & ' ' / 1 * +, ' ' 5 2, 1,) & ' ' S ' ' &.1 ) 1 *, 2 ' /.' ) 1 * 5 2 ' 4,/ ' 1 &,'.,' / 2 1 & ' ) 7-& 5 Figure 1 Risk of traffic conflict (risk indicator) versus bicycle flow (Ekman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igure 2 Stopping distance in relation to speed, calculated with deceleration=.8g and reaction time=1 s (Carlsson 24) -,, 8-.*.' ),-' /,-,2 + &.-' ' / ) / 4 ) -,2 1 *,& ' / ' ' / -,?,OO# , / *,4.' * 1 +&,/ ' ',-' ) & ' 1,& 56 ' L & ' ),' 2 / ' * 4 ' / -, ' ' 4 -,+' 1 & ) / -,+1 & 1 & / -, / ' * ) 4 ' ' ),/ ' ', & ' 1,& ' / 5
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
27 Figure 3 The risk of a road user being killed depending on speeds in various collision types (SveKom 1998) ' ' ' 1 4 ' -, ', 2 ) -' ' I & *,' 1 ' 4 ' ) 4 L &, ' -+ ' &.1 ) ' I & *,' --' -, -4 ) 4 ' #5 ' 4 ) ) ) -,' * ' 1, 1, -4 ) & ' ' 5 ' -' ' I & *,' & * ) -' ' I & *., 1 --' -,+ ', -1 1 *) ),' --' -, -4 ) , -- ' &.1 ) ' I &,;/ & #5 Figure 4 The relation between changes in number of injured and changes in mean speed (Nilsson 24) ' L & ' ' 1 ' ) & ',1 * ' '.' & & ',' / 5/ -+ / ' -+', ' 1 &,1 I ' & ' ' ) *4 -, & ' / ' I & ',) " E.OO$5
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
30 ),' & /, * ' 1 &,/ ' ' ' / ',',&,/ ' I,2 5 "4,,'.,1 ) 1 5 *& &, - 1 -,,' ) & *-) 5!',,' -, ' ),' ) *-+., & 1, ) ) ).& & ' / ' ' &.1 ),' 5A / 2 1 R Figure 5 Basis for decision in prioritising of measures (Vägverket 21a)
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njury accidents on a road section (5 years) Average accident rate and its variation on a road section Current number Change in safety of accidents situation (1 (2 Forecast of the number of accidents Measure and its impact coefficient Accident reduction Average accident severity in road conditions in question and its change 1) Reliable estimate of current safety situation 2) For example, traffic or land use change Traffic fatality reduction Figure 6 TARVA, organisational diagram for the modelling procedure (Peltola 2) (
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
33 1 ' ' '.' D& ' '.'!' ' " ) &!',,&.,),) ' *- ) ',, 8,' 5 Figure 7 Example of division into sub-models for safety effect models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
34 ? ' ' 1 4 ',' ', ) ) ) 4.,, ','.. &, ', ) ' &.1 ),',-',' 1 '.,5 ' ' ' 1 4 '.,),' ',.,) ' &.1 ),'.- 6,' X &.1 ),'./ " " 5 ' ',,&.,' ;/ & $ ' 2 ).) -',' L & ' 4 ' &.1 ),',-', ' 7-' ' / 1 & ) ) &. ' '.' 5 ).& 1 4 ' 7.- ) ' L & ' ) & ' / ' &.1 ),' 2 ' ). '.,5 E( p µ ) = expσ an β x j ij 4 8µ 7-,' &.1 ),',' -*-2.+$. ) ) ) , 1 ' /,/.*' '.' ),+++j.,-.1 %4 ) 4 +,' +2 ' ). "4,., 1 5 Table 3 Accident rates and severity for two lane roads (1) O
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
39 , ' ).' 5;,) ) '.- Q - ' ),' ' 4 1 > [ +O 2. S [ + 2. S > [ +( ,* * ) 4.&,4 / & '.).' -,4 ' ) !.& 1 ', & ' ) ',,, '., ' & *-,& 4 & ' ) * 4 &, 1 ' &,1,' -,.& ) # 56 & / -,,' *.&,& ' /,*.+ * '.* /,& ' / ' /.+ ', -, ' 1 &.,1,-,' I & ) ) '.' &.-, & 5 Figure 8 Speed distribution with 9% confidence intervals, sample size=3 vehicles, Link: U8 Figure 9 Speed distribution with 9% confidence intervals, sample size=5 vehicles, Link: U8 #
40 B Figure 1 Speed distribution with 9% confidence intervals, sample size=1 vehicles, Link: U8 "--, 5< & ' *-, -,&,--,5 -,'.*&,' ) ) ) *4 2 5!' ) ) ) ' / ' ' / I & ' * -, & + ) ) ) ) * & ) I & ' *-, &,'.' * -,& *',L & & 5 I & ' * -, &,,',-. ' /,' 5!), -),/ ) ' * ' 4 -, *4 )..+ * / ) ) 4 ' / I & ' *-,5 ) * ' + 4 +' 1 7-,1 / * ' ) & ', -,4 1 / ).I -) +',..' * -,4 ' -',' & ' ) & ' 2 5 "-,) ) 5 =' ' OO 4 ' -,' ) & ' ' / ) *& ' ) D. -, ), N) 85 4, ' 8., ' ) -, 1 *, ' ) ' ) 5 ; -& - ) ' 2 ' / -, ' &.1 ', *),' +4 &,-1 1 *1 1 & -,) ) , )...' * 1 ', 1 ' 5!' 4.,-, 1 '.&,) 1 ) ', 5 -, ) ) ', ),) ) *5B 4 + / ',' ' +,& ' / ' / ' +) -, ',) ) / *). 8-,5 ' 1 ' / -1. ' ), &, ' * ) 4 ).' & ) ) ). ' / ' + ', / ', ' ' '..' ' / ' 2 + ' * ' ' ' ' 4 +'.' 5B 4 +' ',) ' 2 +/ ', ' '.* &.) ' 5 ' -,+ 4 +/ -1.'.&.' ' 81 ',& 5
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
42 ' 6 (!..' -' ) D,) ),' *). ).,,& 5 D 1..&.) * & / ) ) ' '.' 4 & 2 -' /,,, ' ;/ & 5.2.& ' / ) D7-&.&..-7 ' ) 7-& ).,,& 5 1 1, 1 7-& ) & ' 1,& & *-1 ' 4., 1 ', -,5.,1,', 1 ' / 1 ' &.1 ) & ' 1,&. ' / ' / ', ' / +4 4 *, 5 B 4 *. ' / & / ' '.'.* L & ' ) 4 * ' 4 +-,).., 5 Figure 11 Pedestrian movement interlaced with car traffic, Norrköping Link N68!' ' - ) ),&, -' 4 & ' - &,'.& ' / ) & ' 1,& Z 7-& 5 ' -, &,4 &..' *.& ' ) D' ' '.' ).& ) 7-& 5 & ' / -&,*4 4,, 4-1 ) 1,. & ' ) D...& ' / -,5 -&,*4 ',&,'. *' / ','.' &,*.. & ' ' / ) D ',.& ' / ) -,, 1 -,'.,& ',) 2 ) 1 5 '.' ,1 2.& ' & *5 4 ),1 * ) 4 ' 1 / ) 4 ) ',D+ D'.* * */ &,, ' - ', & 1 ' / * & ',56 ',' ) ' -,' / 4 ' - *,' Z, ' '.' 4.' *D4 *.' * ' / ',' ' / ' / 5 D7-,.,) ) ' 1 & ' *-' ' ' '.',& ' /.) ' / ', & */ ' / & / ' ' - 5 $
43 7! ' &.1 ) -,' ', 1 * 1 ' & ', ' & ' * ) ) ) '.' & ' 2 5,& 1 ' & ',) *. ' -7.*) ' 2 5D,& ' / ' - *-,). +) 7.-1 *,/ 4,-) ',+ ' 1 ' & ',+,' 4 &,2 *' 1 1 &, ' 2 5 ' &.1 ' 1 ',I &,4 2 ' 4,/ 1 & ' ) D &.,*5;,I & ' / +.& ) ' ) 1 * ) 4,* 1 ' &,5.& )..' ' 3.@ 5;/ & 4 ',& ' /,*) 1 ' / ' 7 &,' / ',& ',) ',& 5 6 ' 1 ' ' ) / & + ) 4-2,& ' /.' ' / ', ) ' ' 5-2 * / ',& 1 & ) / - ' / ),* ) &,..& ' / ',) Variation in bicycle flow over the day 7, Percentage of daily traffic per 15 minutes interval 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,, : 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: 9: 1: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: 16: 17: 18: 19: 2: 21: 22: 23: Time of day General streets Industrial areas Figure 12 Variation of bicycle flows during the day, main streets in Malmö, divided into Industrial streets and General (all others), floating average over five fifteen minute intervals,i & ' / ) ) ) '.' & & ',*) ) ' & ' 1 & ' 5 2 ' 4,/ ) 4 ) ) 4.),*),) ) ' *-) ' *4 7-,5, ) ' ' 1 7-, * 1 4 '. *- ),& + 1 *.* ) 4 ) & ' 1, &,) ) '. ' -& 1 ' & ' 4 -' ' / & 5,I & ' / ) & ',*) ) ).- 5 & / ) D7-& &, 4 1 ) *1 5 & ' / ),&,+ ' &.1 ) & ' 1,& ' 2 ',/,*4 4 &,' & *1 7-,) *-) ' 2 5 &&&&.1 ) ' //// D ' &.1 ) & ' 1,& ' / '.-' 1 ' 7-' ' / ' &.1 ),' ' ' 2 5 & ' ' / ) -,' ',1 * ' / ' &,,1 ' /.' ' ' ' ' 2 +Q 1 ' / ', ' / ' 1 4 ' 5!),&,.+. 1 ' & ',5 :
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
45 "! ; & ' 1 ' ) 4 * - ).!' /,& ' /., ' 1 ' 1 ' ',) 1 * * ', -, ' -, ' /. ' 5!' 4 ' *' ' ',,) -, ' 5 ' ))., ' * ), )) 5 1 & -, ).. * -,) * ', )) & / ' / ' 5.., )) 1 *,) 4 *).., )) 5-7. * ) 5 ' ) 1 *,' 4 ' 8 1 ' ', ', 5!) ) * ' '. * ) 1 ' / -. *). 1 ' / /, N% 2 ' / ' /, * ' ' ' *,1 % * ' % *,, ' / ) ' * 1 ' / 1-4 ' -,,4 1 ' ' 1 *. * ' ) ' * - ' 4, ) '.. ' /. ) ' 1 ' ), 4 *)., )) ', & ,, )) 5 6 )) ;/ & 4 + ',.' 5 Figure 13 Separated bicycle facility crosses intersecting minor street (left and right) %2 ' /.<& 1 ' /, ) L & ' / & 1. *1 +1 & & 2 ' / 4 ) * ' ' /. ' 5 1 ' /, ' * ' " ' / ) + * ) 1 ' 8 1 & * ' / ) ) ' 1, ' * ', &./ 1 1 * + ;/ & #5 Figure 14 Biker on street categorised as inappropriate for biking
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
47 " / 8 ' ', ' 3,!3 1 ' ' ).,' / ',-',' 1 + ' &.1 ),' + ' 8 '.*,1 &,+ 1 & =' ' / 1 '.,1 &,5!34 ),-',' 1 2 ',1 & ' ' '.,1 & ' + ' * ' 1 ' /,1 & ' 1 ' / 7-' ' ).*5 ','.,4 ' 1, 1,',.& 1 & 1 ) ' +6' ',%' 5".-) 3 1, 1,',& ',', & / ',1 *.+',-,.2 ' 4,/ 1 &.,'.,' / 5 3 & ' 2 ) & ' ' / ' ' ' ' 1 4 ',-',' ', ',-',' 1 5 g µ )= η= Xβ (!' ) =',1 &,,-',' 1 /. ) & ' ' '.*&, ' 2 ) & ' ' +4 1 ' ' 4 2 5? ' /. ' 2 ) & ' ' &,+.,4 2 ' ). βi E Y e x i ( ) = 4 K,-',' 1 +' 7-,' &.1 ),' β -.1.,1 *., 7 ',-',' 1.,,/ ' 4 &. ) β7. ) '.,5!' ) /. ' 2 ) & ' ' 7-' ' ' -4 4,.& - ). ' e e e β1x1+ β 2 X 2 β1x1 β2 X 2 = '.-.,+ &, 1 ' /.,5 %* & ' / /., 1 7-' 1 ', ' 1.-), & ' / 1 ' e Lnx = x 1 5!' ) / 1 ' ) / ' 1 1 / *',1 ' & X 4 / / ',,&..* & β, 1 ' / ) ) ' ' &.1 ),' 1 / *5? ' / 1,,,+ ' / &,'.,+ & /..'. 1 './,5 1 # 4 ' 7.-).,, -' 5 / 1 ',& & D,' %+!' & ' 6+ ' +!',&! ' 5!' - & + / ',-.6+%',-!', 1 ' * ', / 1 './,5 β 1 β
48 Table 4 Example of model description Model: Bicycle, no preset Deviance df Perc.exp % Parameter Estimates Parameter Dummy Exponent Scaled t-value t-prob. Constant 2.16E NCXP Flow Landuse_ABC 1 Landuse_IX Func_GIF 1 Func_T Func_C Vis_Good Vis_Medium 1 Vis_Poor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df / df SD SD M ME / df / df M ME E&.OO " X ", ' +,) X,/ ) ),. / ' ) ' &.,4 ' *' ' ' 1 3/ ' ) &,,., 3 / ' ).,4 *. ' 7-',+ & " 3 ", ' ' N-) 8., 7-' *. 5!) " ).,/ ' &.) ',. ' 4 ', & ' &,1 2 ' 5 ", ' ) 3.,.,1 *& ' / 4 ),.,),' *-' L & ' ',&..' / & - n y ˆµ î ˆ µ e µ i n î SD = E( SD = i i î + î ME i i ) 2 ( y log( y / ˆ ) ˆ µ yi ) y! 4 i yi i y 1,' &.1 ),' ' 2 + µˆ 7-,' &.1 ),' ' 2 i ',' ;.& +E&.OO î (
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able 5 Variables in database %, '''' '.' 2 2 / '! ' '.!' ' ) )))) &.1 ', *- ) ' ' "'. ',& 3I ' / ) & ' 1,&? ',.-& 1 &.1 ) ' "-' ) '.),* 3 ' &,,' ' ).' 1 & ' 2 1 * &.1 ) / 7 / ' + --' / ' 5 =2 ' / ' / ' 2 &.1 ) ' / 4 ' * ) 4 6,',R' I I I I &&&& -,' *- & ) ) 4.1 ),' ' / / *) & ' 1,& "-' ) 1 * ' / ' 2 &.1 ) ' / -,' &.1 ) -,' ' / ' / &.1 ) ' / 1 * & / / "-,..1 ) 1 * ' ' -,+.' -,+ ',,, ' &.1 ) ) &.1 ),' 4 ' I & & I &.1 ) * ', &.1 ),' 4 / ' I & &.1 ) / * ' I &, O
55 3 : ".&.' 1 ',& ',1 ',)..' *-1 5 ' 2 1 ' &,,) ) ) '.' &,& ' / 4 ' ).' 1 ' /,1 & ' &.1 ) & ' 1,& -' / & / ' '.' ', 4 *. & / ' '.' 5 -, 1 '.&,+4,1 &,/ ' ) ) ) ' '.' 5 3 '! ;,&, 1 ',& ) ' ' / ' -&,*+',' ' S --+ B ' / 1 / + ' -' / + ',*,+ E'.+ A J ', -' / 5 ;.,' / +, 1 ' &,).1 & ' / ',B ' / 1 / 5!' ) ' /.,) ),&,,). -&,* &,*) + &,4 ' ) & *.-1 5B ' / 1 / 4 7 &,,!' -&,7 &,, ', ),,' 8.-,',) B ' / 1 / 5 / ' * '. 4,) ),&,+1 &,1 7 &,,1 & ) 2 ).',& 5 Table 6 Municipalities where measuring have been carried out and the extent of the main street network & 2 *.1 ) ' ' / -&,* #+$ -- #: #+ B ' / 1 / ##$ ( :+ ' -' / ###( O + ',*, ## +( E'. ### ($ $+$ A J $ O #O +: -' / ( : $ #+$.&, ' 2 ' / ;.,' / ',.& ' / -& - ' 4 2 ).& ' -* 1 ',,, ' ' 2 5 ' 2 -.*.,& -1 * 1 4 ' 4.' ' ' 1 &.. ' 2 1 ',,,'.' 2 5 ' 1,& ) './ ' & 1 4 ' ' ' ', ) &,' 8 1.,, ' /./ ' & ' 2 + ' / 1 & *,' ),).' -5 ' / ' 2 &,,,' 2 ' / ).5!' ' 2 4 &,,'.' &,*+).,' / ' *O' 2 1 ' &,56(' 2 ' B ' / 1 / 4 7 &,,1 & ) 2 ).-,,',5.' ' / 7 &,,' &,,1 & ) 2 ),' ) 4 5 #
56 B B 3!',,' 1, ).,' / +.. 1, 4,,& ' /.& ' / ) & ' - ' / ), ', ' & ' ),1 5,1 ) *, 1,' 1 $5 Table 7 Description of basic data, -' ' 2,' ) "'..) 6, ' / 4 * ', ' 4 ' 2.& ' / 1 ',' 75 O ' 2 ' &.1 O' --? ',.-&? ',' ', & 1.) -' * 3' K ".+ & ' ' / ) DW B & 3' & ',.+ & ' ' / ) DW B & 3' & ".+.& ' / ) -,W ',.+.& ' / ) -,W & 3' & & 3' & 3 ' & ), 4 &, ', ' * &.'./ 1 & ) & 4 ' ' -' /,+ 75 ' & ' 4 2 ' -/,& ' /.& ' / = = 4 2 ' ' L & 2 * 2 ' '.' ' ) & ' ' ', ', ) ) ' 5 W ',-.) & ' ' / D',.& ' / -,4 '.*.+1 & 4 ' ).'.& ' / &,' 81,' -4 & ' ' / D.& ' / ) -, 4 ) ', 1 ) & ' ' / ) D+.,) ),5 #
57 3 " # 1 ' ' &,, 1 ) ) ' '.' 5 1 8'. ) 4,1 *' 1 1 ' &,' ).& 5 ' 2222 ' //// ' //// ; ' 2 ' ), &, ' 2 ' / 4.&, )..-5 ' 2 ' /.' *&, ',, ' &.1 ) ' ' ',,, ' ' &.1 ) ' ' / ' 2 ' / 1 &. ',.' * 1 4 ' ',:.5 ' 2 ' / ' ) & ',1 * ) 4 ' / ' 1 4 '.I ' ' 5!) 4,' 1 4 ' 4.I ' ' ) *./ ' & ', ' 1 1,).' -+ ' 4,' &,' ' 2 5!) 4,' 1 4 ' 4.I ' ' ' / 1 1,..+ ' 1 ',,,' ' 2 5B 4 +) -1 * ) D 1 ' ' ' 7' ' ' 2 1 ' &,,' ' / ' * 4 5!) ) ) ' /.4 ' /,' 1 4 ' 4.I ' ' + ',,,'../ ' & ' 2 5 Frequency - Link length Number of links Figure 15 Frequency of link lengths Link length (m) #
58 ',& ',& 1, 1 *- ) 1 &,' / & & ',' / ' 2 ', 1 ' &, 4 /, & ','.,P I ',! ' + ' 1 & / / ' +=', 2 R! ' 5 ) 4 ' / / ) ',& 1 ' &,!' & ' D,'..!',& ' '!' & ' &, 4 ' 1 &,' / & & ',' /. ) & ' ' 4 -- ' / ',). 1 &,' /. ' ' & & * ' ' ',& +) 7.--& ' ',& ' / ' 2 &,,,' ;/ & (5 Land use Number of links Institutional Residential Commercial Industrial None Figure 16 Frequency of different types of land use 1 * Land use 1, 1 1 * & ', ' * 4,,, 1, I & 1 ) ), &, ', 4 ' & / *, &, ',, 1 ) ',5 & N-8 ' '.' 4,/ + &. / 1 I 1 & ' / ' ',,' / ) ).' / )., 5 & 8/,8, 1 ' '.' 4,* ' * 1 I 1 & ' / ' 5 ' '.' ' ) ' / ' ) / N-8N/,84 I &,/,N'.85 ' *9 ) ' 2 1 ' I &,/, - 1 *+- -1 &.' 4-1 *',/ 1 *.-,4-1 5, 1 *4 1, #$9 ) ' 2 ','. 9 5 #
59 ;/ & ',/ $ R1, 1 ', ;/ & *5 : R1 & ' '. ', - * ' / - Figure 17 a&b Examples of environments with poor visibility Figure 18 a&b Examples of environments with good visibility &.1 ) ' 1 ' - * 4 * &. ' + 4 ' ', &,,. ' / O ' 2 &,) ' ', 9 ) & ' 5 & 4 ' ', ' '., ' / 5 ) 4 4 ' 4 ".. 4, ), '., ' / 5 ' ) & ' * 1 ' 1 ) 4, * " -, ' & ' 1 ', ' 1 ' +)& -,, '. / ' 3 - ) ) & - ' -' 2 + ' 2 ' / $:9 ' 2 -- &, ' 4, 4 ' ) & 5!' 5. 4 ' 2 4 ' * : 9 ' ' 2,, ' + 4, 4 ' ' &, ' ', )+,, '., ' / ' ) ' * ' ' ' ',' " - ' ) ' -, ' 5 '. 7,5 < & - ', ' '.,, ' + ' *- * 1 & *,& ' / 2 ) ' ',,5.7, & &,4 ' 4 ' '. ' 5, ' 8 ', 9 ' &.1 ), &, ' ## ' 1-4 ' ' 5 ' + $9 1 2 ' ) ' 2,, ' / ' ' ) / 4 ' 2
60 =2 ' //// ' //// ' 2222 =2 ' //// 1, 1 & ' ) -2 ' / ' / ' 2 5,) ) ' ' 1 ' &, -2 ' / 1 =2 ' / ',1, =2 ' / ',& ' / ' 4, Figure 19 Illustration of parking along the street: a) No parking, b) Parking in slots beside the street, c) Parking in the street reducing the lane width!' 4-2 ' / 4,+ 1 ',,4-2 ' / 7' 1,) ' *' 5!' 1 &.I *) ' 2 +:(9 + ' -2 ' / ;/ & 5 Parking Number of links No parking Beside the street, onesided Beside the street, twosided In the street, onesided In the street, twosided Parking Figure 2 Frequency of parking alternatives on links #
61 "-,. " ".7.&.4,-, 1 ' /,) ' 2 5,) & -,.' & 1 ' 2. 4 ) ' ' 2 &,,+: 9 ) ' 2 -,. 2. 5D.' ' / ' 2 -,.$2. O ',, & ) $9 5 ' 2222 ' '.' ',;& &&& '''' ' '''' +;& '''' 4 1 &, ' 7' / "4,,'.,5 *, 1 ' '.' ',) & ' ' ) ) 4 5 ' '.' /,4 '. & +3,,',' +) ' / ' 4 ' *5 1 4 ',.',1 * ' +1 & 1 *,/ ' ) + -' ) & ' 1,& ',4-2 ' / 4,' / 5; ' -' / & ' ) 4.-, & ) 1 ' +# & ) O ' 2,. ' +1 & ' ', ' '.' & 5 1 ' '.' & ' 1.- ',,*' ' *.& 4 ' + & / '.) / ', 5A / 2 1 3) ' 2 1 ' /, & $9 3,, 9 1 & ).& ' ) ' 2 /,' 9 5;/ & Frequency - Link Environment (LEnv) 25 2 Number of links Outer Middle Centre Link Environment (LEnv) Figure 21 Frequency of links for Link Environment (LEnv) 1 ;& ' ' & &!; & / ) + ' ' + %*-+ ' / ' ' 5 ' 2, 1,4!; / -' ) & / ) ) ) ', / -2 ' ' ) ) ) ) 4,*5' 2, 1,4 ' -- 4 * & / ) ) ) ',4-2 & ) ) 5A / 2 1 3) ' 2 1 ' /,!; 9 ' / ' #9 5' 2 4 ' ) & ' '.' / ' 2 &,, 9 5;/ & #(
62 Frequency - Street Function (Func) 25 2 Number of links GIF Tangential Centre Street Function (Func) Figure 22 Frequency of links for Street Function (Func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
63 / ',.7+"+" ' &.1 ) / ',. 7 ', ' ' ' / ' 2 1 ' /,5 1 & ',*1 4 '.',/ 7 1 ',) ',1 * ' &.1 ) -2 ' / -, 1 * 75!) 7' * ' / ) 4-2 ' / -.1 2,) ', ' / --' / ' ', / -2 ' /,) ',/ 75 " 4.' * / 7 / ' *, ' ' ',& 1 ' /.' 4 ). -2 ' / ) / 1 2,, * '.' 5 " 4.' * / 7 7 ' &,, 7 - ',*, 1 ' /. & 1 ' ' 4.' * 5 " 4.' *. 7 / ' * & /,' *) & ',' ',*,5 3' * ) ' 2 ##9,' 8 ' * 7+ /.5 3 ) ' 2 #9 ) 1 4 ' 75;/ & 4,1 & ' 4 ' '., ' &.1 ) 7/ ',.-2.5 Frequency - Number of exits (large and small) per km Number of links Number of exits per km Figure 23 Frequency of links with different number of exits per km #:
64 3 # ;4 )., ;4 ' ) 4 )., ' ' 2 1 ',)..& ' - ', - ), 66 6 / 6' ' & * ) ) 5 ) 4 ' /.' * 1 4 ' ', -,*+1 & 4 ) 4 :,*+',/ ) 4,*+) & ',.' / ' 2 5;/ & # 4,1 & ' ) ) 4.' / ' 2 5 Distribution - Vehicle flow 1% 9% 8% 7% Cumulative share (%) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Figure 24 Distribution of Vehicle flows among the links Vehicle flow (AADT) -,"-,' "-,',"',,,, ' ) -," -, 1 '.&, 4 ',,,,& ' / ), &,5..' ).&,-, 1 ' &,, 1 -, 5!',,' ',,, ' 1 ' &,',&,'.),-' ) -,5 / -, ' /.' * 1 4 ' ', ( & 4 / -, : 2. & + 4 / -,& - $ 2. ;/ & 5 ' 2 '.*,1 &,,' /.' -,5 ',,, ' ) -, ' 2 ' /.' *1 4 ' 7',' 2. ;/ & (','.*,1 &, ' 2 52 ' / -,,1 & ' -*) -,.+ ' 1 ',) ).& 1 4 ',) ) ' -,.+7 -) -,.2. ',..',,2. ;/ & $5B 4 + / -,,) ).& 1 4 ' ' 2 4.-,.5 #O
65 Distribution - Average speed 1% 9% 8% 7% Cumulative share (%) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Average speed (km/h) Figure 25 Distribution of Average speeds among the links Distribution - Standard deviation of speeds 1% 9% 8% 7% Cumulative share (%) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Standard deviation of speeds (km/h) Figure 26 Distribution of Standard deviation of speeds among the links
66 Distribution of average speeds per speed limit 1% 9% 8% 7% Acc. percentage 6% 5% 4% 3 km/h N=1 Rec 3 km/h N=9 5 km/h N=336 5 km/h N=38 3% 2% 1% % Speed (km/h) 3 km/h Rec3 km/h 5 km/h 7 km/h Figure 27 Distribution of average speeds on links for different speed limits
67 &&&&.1 ) &&&& ' 1, &&&& =+ =E.+ ==+ ==+ =+ + E.+ =+ =+ == 1 ) 7-& ) & ' 1,& 1,' & ' -).,' ), &,+ '., !' ), &, ' &.1 ) -,' ', 1 * ' / = R ',. ' / ' / ' 2 == R = 1 ' & ',5 & ' ' 1 ',I &,4 /,. ' 1 '.),*) ) 5 ',, ' &.1 ) ' /,& + ' &.1 1 ', ' 2 ' / ' &.1 ),& ' / -,*',2. =E.R E.5 ' &.1 ), & ' / ',. ' / ' / ' 2 1 '.1 ', ' / / /. == R =5 1 ',' 1 ' ' / 1 ) -,& *-+, 1 ' / 7-& ) *-),& ' ' 2 5 / / / 1 1 ' ),' / 1 ==R = 4 ' 2 4. ' :,& -,* 1 ' /,4 NB / 87-& ',' 2 4 ) 4 ',& -,* 1 ' /,4 N4 87-& 5 Distribution - Number of crossing pedestrians per day (NPX) Distribution - Number of pedestrians along the street per day (NPP) Cumulative share (%) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Number of crossing pedestrians per day Distribution - Number of crossing pedestrians per day and km (NPXKm) Cumulative share (%) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Number of pedestrians along the street per day Distribution - Number of crossing pedestrians and pedestrians along the street per day (NPXP) Cumulative share (%) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Number of crossing pedestrians per day and km Distribution - Number of crossing bicyclists per day (NCX) Cumulative share (%) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Number of pedestrians per day Distribution - Number of bicyclists along the street per day (NCP) Cumulative share (%) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Number of crossing bicyclists per day Cumulative share (%) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Number of bicyclists along the street per day
68 Distribution - Number of crossing bicyclists per day and km (NCXKm) Distribution - Number of crossing bicyclists and bicyclists along the street per day (NCXP) Cumulative share (%) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Number of crossing bicyclists per day and km 1% Figure 28 a-h Distribution of variables describing VRU exposure D ' //// / Cumulative share (%) 8% 6% 4% 2% % Number of bicyclists per day 4 * & ' 1,& 1 ' /,' ).) ' / / 5,) ) ' / &, $ + = + + > ',- 5 / / 9 & 4...' ' / P 1 ' #9 ', ;* ;/ O5 Frequency - Crossing strategies for Vulnerable Road users Number of links No crossing Grade separated Signalised Zebra crossing Freely Crossing strategy Figure 29 Frequency of crossing strategies
69 "-' ) 1 * ' //// ' //// ' 2222 "- ', 1, 1 ' / 4 D.7, 4., ) ), * ' / ' / ' 2 -,).+' /,4 +.,) ) 5 1 &. ) 4 ' / & %2 ' / ' / ' %2 ' /,' ' ) %2,, 1 & -' 5 % %2 ' /,4.,) ) ' *' ' 2.' / O4 /,) + ' 2 ) '.,' / 1 ' ' ), %/ & -5...' ' 1 ($9 +-' ) ;/ & 5 Frequency - Separation of bicyclists Number of links Biking not appropriate Separate path Separate lane Integrated Separation Figure 3 Frequency of bicyclist separation forms #
70 3 3 ' &.1 ) - -,,' ' ) ) ',1 *4 ' & ' &.1 ),' 5,& ) ) ) 1,' - -,' &.1 ),' ',',' - -,56'. ' *#9 ) ' I & *,' ',) ) -, - ' / & ',OO:5,) ) ' 1 4 '.& ' -' /,,/ ) & ',-' / 5 ' & / "4, - ) & ' ) ) ) *' 4,*' ' &.1 ) * ',) *' I &,+,&, ' &,,' 4 ' */ ' I & 5 ' ) ' &,' / / ' I & ' I & ', ) * ', ) ' &.,) ; &.1 ) ' I &,-,) --'., +1 * ',-,' 5, ' &, ' ).' ',/ ) ' I & *+,) ' ' / * ' / ) *+ ' I & * ', / ' I & *5,' ' 1 4 ' ', / ' I & *., 1 * - ',.' * ) 4 ' I &, 2 * 1 -, ' 5 ).,' ' ? * : "9 7( ((( 4444 : "& 4 4 " (((( : "9 (Vägverket 21b) 3 3 (!.-' ),',). ' ',',1! " 1 ', & 1 *!5, ' ) - -, ' I & *,' ) * &,,5 ; --+ E'. ', ',*,,', 1 '.-,) * OO# ',) ' -' / + -' / ',A J *OO:5;.,' / -& -) *),', 1 ' &,).& ' -*5; ).& ' -.' 7 &,' / *),',5 *OO#OO(4 ' 1 7 &,,', ).' ' / ) * ) *5.' ' / *),',) --+E'.', ',*, 1 ' &,,, -,.,',.- -, 1 *4 ) 7' / ' 5 1 : ', 1 O &.. ' &.1 ),' ', ' I &, -.& ' -*5 ' &.1 ),' ', ' I & / ),' ',. ) "' /,' ' & & ',.,+--7.*,' ',, ) -,' *- E&. 5 ' ), ) ',% *,' +1 & ' ) =,' ', "' /,' 5 ) 7' ' 4 ' ' & ' /.,) =',",' 5
71 Table 8 Number of accidents per accident type and municipality, five years of accident data //// 6,' *- % * =,' ' -- O O E'. $ ',*, O # //// ' -' $ : : 2 -' $ ( A J # # # # :: Table 9 Number of injured road users per accident type and municipality, five years of injury data //// I I I I &&&& //// 6,' *- % * =,' "'!' * * ; " ; " ; " ; " -- #$ #$ ( O E'. # ',*, ' -' :: : ( $ 2 -' $ ( O (# O A J # $ ( $ $ : $: # # O O# $#( : (
72 Accidents per link - bicyclists Number of links Number of accidents Figure 31 Number of accidents per link - bicyclist accidents Accidents per link - pedestrians Number of links Number of accidents Figure 32 Number of accidents per link - pedestrian accidents $
73 Accidents per link - vehicle-vehicle Number of links Number of accidents Figure 33 Number of accidents per link - vehicle-vehicle accidents Accidents per link - vehicle-single Number of links Number of accidents Figure 34 Number of accidents per link - vehicle-single accidents :
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
75 Table 1 Correlation matrix for covariates used in the modelling, bold figures indicate very strong correlations (>±.5) and grey figures indicate weak correlations (<±.1) Correlation Matrix Flow NPX NPXKm NPP NPXP NCX NCXKm NCP NCXP Speed DSpeed X3Km X4Km X34Km DX Flow 1 NPX.11 1 NPXKm NPP NPXP NCX NCXKm NCP NCXP Speed DSpeed X3Km X4Km X34Km DX Flow Vehicle flow (AADT) NCXP Number of bicyclists crossing and parallell NPX Number of pedestrians crossing Speed Average vehicle speed NPXKm Number of pedestrians crossing per km DSpeed Standard deviation of speeds NPP Number of pedestrians walking parallell with the street X3Km Number of three arm intersections per km NPXP Number of pedestrians crossing and parallell X4Km Number of four arm intersections per km NCX Number of bicyclists crossing X34Km Number of intersections per km NCXKm Number of bicyclists crossing per km DX Average distance between intersections NCP Number of bicyclists walking parallell with the street
76 4 % & ),-' ) ) ),'.-, -& =',1 & ' + & ',., ', -,& / * / ' ) ' & 5 6 M & ='.,&, & ' ) 3 R"&../ OO(5 M & ='.,& ),I & 1 *' ) ' / ' +4 4 &,1 L &.' ) =',1 &, 1 5 ) -' & ' / ), -.,4 /,) ),' *-5., ' &, & =',& 4 &..,) ' 2 5 ) 1 ' &, &.) =',& ) &,.,,,,1 *.' ' /,/ ) ),.) 4 ),., 1 5 ) &,1 ) χ 4 ' 2 ' / ) / ' ) ' ),,, 1 ', 4 ' 2 ' / / ' ) ' ) ',,& 1 5 B ',I & ' / + L & ) ) &, ', ',,, ' ',) ' 5 Table 11 Scale factors to compensate for over dispersion 6,'!' I & / / Σχ,) Σχ,) Σχ,) Σχ,) % * (:$ $O 5: $ # $O 5OO =,' ## : 5( # : : 5 $$O : 5# ( : #5 "' #( : 5 ( : 5#( Σχ X "&.) =',& +,) X.' ',/ ) ),. 4 " <!' - ).,' / ' 2 4,' ),.' / *' ) & ' ' /., / ', ' ' 2 5 ' 2 4 &,, 4 &, 1 ' *& ',& * ' ) & ' 5;& ' 2 4,' ), ' / *-). ' 2 S ) & ' 2 4 -) & -' / 4 * #5 #' --+',/ ) ' ). / 4 *+ & / ' / / ',' ' +2 ' /.2 ',' * ) & ' & 1 ' ;/ & 56 & / ' * & ' 2 #+$', & + ) & 4 7 &,,)..,' / 5 ' ) 4.1 ' ' ) 2 ) 1 & ),.' / ). & -) #4 &,1 ' / *' ) & ',1 * 1 & ' - & ' 2 ', ) ' / ' 7 -',' *5 & ) ::' /,' ' O ' 2 +O &,' ' 2 H.,-',' ) 4 ' / ' 1,'.' ' / :O' 2 5 (
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