Mark Alexander Shalaby. May 2011

Transcription

1 Mark Alexander Shalaby May 2011

2 THE GLOBAL THE LOCAL THE HOPE & THE HYPE Contents

3 Key messages Global Mobile Internet Consumers New devices: Proliferation of new connected devices spurring mobile Mobile Internet growth: cameras, GPS, tablets, smartphones, etc. New uses: social networking, commerce, etc. Dropping entry costs equipment and dataplans Better access - coverage Providers Voice revenues stagnating ARPU levels dropping Data appetite new revenue stream opportunity Technological development LTE coverage & capacity Business model challenges value chain fragmentation & consolidation "Mobile is going to be the next big internet phenomenon. Eric Schmidt, CEO Google 2005

4 A More Mobile World + 5 Billion Mobile subscribers out of 6.9 billion people at the end of 2010 Nearly 80% penetration 0.5 Billion Mobile Internet users in 2010; increasing to 1 Billion 2011 Mobile will overtake PCs Usage will double in next 5 years

5 By the end of M daily circulation of all newspapers 825 M registered cars 950 M total cable/satellite TV subscribers 1.1 B total fixed landline phones 1.2 B All types of PCs in use incl laptops, netbooks 6 B total TV sets in use 1.7 B total internet users incl PC, mobile, web café 1.8 B total unique holders of credit cards 2.2 B total unique holders of bank accounts 4.0 B total FM radios in use But 4.6B mobile phone subscriptions globally... Source: Tomi Ahonen A Look at M-Sports Around the World 2010

6 Mobile Dominates Globally Mobile is the ubiquitous device The Internet is becoming Mobile: Many Mobile Internet users are mobile-only, i.e. they do not, or very rarely use a desktop, laptop or tablet to access the Web. In Egypt, already 70% of Mobile Internet users are mobile-only. Source: Tomi Ahonen The Insider s Guide to Mobile 2010 Billions

7 THE GLOBAL THE LOCAL THE HOPE & THE HYPE Contents

8 2010 Egyptian Telecom Indicators Source: Egyptian Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT), Company reports, Mobinil analysis

9 Egypt ranks 21 st globally in terms of Internet subs More Internet users than fixed line! 2 nd largest number of Internet users in Africa after Nigeria Largest in MENA but penetration still lags more developed nations Egyptians love the Internet. Adoption has been helped by Free Internet initiative : dial up Internet at cost of local call Increasing availability of Internet services in work areas, libraries and Internet cafes Falling PC costs Increasing Smartphone penetration Increasing Arabic & Local content Sources: Egyptian Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT), Business Monitor International (BMI)

10 Broadband (DSL) - booming DSL is a very small but rapidly growing market. Introduced commercially in 2000 spectacular growth rates Adoption has been helped by government sponsored efforts to reduce subscriber costs Arab Advisors 2008 survey found that 63.4% of Egyptian households share DSL connection with their neighbors demonstrates extent of demand Top 5 Internet Sites in Egypt (Alexa 30 th April) 1 Facebook 2 google.com.eg 3 YouTube - Broadcast yourself 4 Google 5 Yahoo! Sources: Egyptian Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT), Business Monitor International (BMI)

11 Internet Users by Mode of Access December 2010 Internet Access thro Mobile or USB Source: Egyptian Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT)

12 THE GLOBAL THE LOCAL THE HOPE & THE HYPE Contents

13 The Broadband Opportunity In Egypt, as elsewhere in the world, there is a tremendous growth opportunity for Mobile Internet & Mobile Broadband Voice reaching tipping point both mobile & fixed operators suffering from drop in voice revenue and falling ARPUs Continuing subscriber growth will not compensate for pricing pressures Data opportunity to re-coup some of revenue shrinkage but needs business model re-alignment, including increased efficiency, partnerships, etc. Mobile voice continues to be largest single contributor to total Egyptian telco revenue: $4.2bn in 2010, representing + 50% of total telecom revenue. Data services, particularly Broadband, have potential to support future growth for operators Mobile data services currently contribute about 9% of total mobile service revenue Pyramid forecasts this will increase to 30% by 2015, stimulated by mobile Internet adoption. Voice will still remain bread & butter of the business Source: Egypt: Political Instability Threatens Telecom Development, but Opportunities Remain, Pyramid Research February 2011

14 The Hope & the Hype: Potential & Obstacles Mobile Internet and fixed & mobile Broadband have huge potential but Egypt penetration still lags behind other countries High adult illiteracy Low income levels Infrastructure limitations coverage and capacity, especially outside of capital national digital divide Opaque pricing & 3G costs remain high for many Relatively High handset/ device costs Lack of compelling local content

15 Social Networks & Revolution 1/2 "People protested and brought down governments before Facebook was invented. They did it before the internet came along." --Malcolm Gladwell, February "This is the revolution of the youth of the internet, and now the revolution of all Egyptians." --Wael Ghonim, February 7 The role of the internet in Egypt's revolution has definitely been overstated --Micah L. Sifry, CNN February 11

16 Social Networks & Revolution 2/2 Internet & social networks played role in the Egyptian revolution supporting mobilization of already politicized groups & getting the message out to those already on-line But social networking via Broadband was a tool not the catalyst for revolt But looking deeply see that of more importance: Large % of youth as proportion of Egyptian population Large urban population Increasing social and income divisions

17 Using Mobile Broadband for Health: Pilot project Partnership between Qualcomm s Wireless Reach initiative, Mobinil, Click Diagnostics and the Egyptian Ministry of Health, supported by the Ministry of Communication Using Mobinil s 3G HSPA Mobile Broadband network, physicians on location photograph patients skin conditions, write up symptoms in text and transmit the information to remote specialists to obtain or confirm diagnosis Program pilot phase will be used to determine the potential success of a large-scale deployment across Egypt to provide specialist medical consultation for regions in need 3G Mobile Broadband has the ability to dramatically improve the speed, efficiency and quality of health care, especially in developing countries where medical resources may be limited. Example dermatology app for ipad: Logical Images' VisualDX Source:

18 Thank You