MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA TELECOMS MARKET: TRENDS AND FORECASTS

Transcription

1 REGIONAL FORECAST REPORT MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA TELECOMS MARKET: TRENDS AND FORECASTS 2016 KARIM YAICI

2 About this report This report provides: a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for the Middle East and North Africa region and for twelve key countries an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries data for Iran, which has been added to the forecast coverage an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences through a crosscountry comparison a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators. Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market experts from our topic-led research programmes and our consulting division, as well as external interviews. In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling). Geographical Regions modelled: Middle East and North Africa Countries modelled individually Algeria Egypt Iran Iraq Israel Kuwait Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Tunisia United Arab Emirates (UAE) REPORT COVERAGE Key performance indicators Connections Mobile Handset, mobile broadband, 1 M2M 2 Prepaid, contract 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G Smartphone, non-smartphone Fixed Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up Narrowband voice, VoBB DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other Voice traffic Fixed and mobile Outgoing minutes, MoU Revenue Mobile Service, 3 retail Prepaid, contract Handset, mobile broadband, 1 M2M 2 Handset voice, messaging, data Fixed Service, 3 retail Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other ARPU Mobile: SIMs, handset Prepaid, contract Handset voice, data For the complete data set, see the accompanying Excel file at 1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data. 2 M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only. 3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue. 2

3 Contents 11. Executive summary 12. The telecoms service market in MENA will grow to USD77.5 billion in, against the backdrop of a weaker macroeconomic outlook 13. Telecoms retail revenue will increase by USD6.2 billion between 2015 and, driven by mobile handset data and fixed broadband services 14. Fixed or mobile revenue will grow in most countries, but competition, market saturation and lack of investment will have an impact on some 15. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets 16. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators 17. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison 18. Geographical coverage: We model twelve telecoms markets, which will account for 90.7% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 19. Market context: The twelve modelled countries account for 83.3% of total population and 92.4% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in Revenue and ARPU: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate 21. Mobile penetration: Maturing markets and enforced SIM registration have already led to a slow down in the number of new mobile connections 22. Mobile connections: 44.2% of all connections will be 3G by, while LTE will account for nearly a quarter of mobile SIMs (excluding M2M) 23. Smartphones and 4G/5G: Israel will have the highest smartphone penetration and UAE will lead 4G/5G take-up rates over the next 5 years 24. Mobile ARPU: Growth in data will offset the decline from voice and messaging, thereby lessening the rate of decline of ARPU 25. Fixed services: Broadband market will grow in most countries, driven by upgrades to access technology and greenfield infrastructure deployment 26. Fixed broadband: Household penetration will grow in all markets, driven by market competition and supported by national broadband plans 27. Key drivers at a glance for each Middle East and North Africa market 28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1] 29. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2] 30. Individual country forecasts 31. Algeria: Retail revenue will grow at a CAGR of 0.6% during 2015, driven by demand for mobile and fixed broadband services 32. Algeria mobile: 3G and the upcoming 4G launch will provide the momentum to drive demand for mobile data services 33. Algeria fixed: DSL and fixed LTE have great potential for growth, but lack of investment will be a significant obstacle 34. Egypt: Service revenue will grow at a CAGR of 0.9% to, driven by demand for fixed broadband and handset data 35. Egypt mobile: Service revenue is set to decline at a CAGR of 1.1% over 2016, giving a weakened market outlook 36. Egypt fixed: Strong growth in broadband connections, while price adjustments and business lines will help slow voice erosion 37. Iran: Lifting of sanctions will improve GDP and encourage investment, while data services will bolster the mobile segment 38. Iran mobile: Increased access to 3G and 4G services and the prospect of new market entrants will underpin future growth 3

4 Contents 39. Iran fixed: Market development will depend on investment in infrastructure, amidst competition from mobile to voice services 40. Iraq: The challenging economic and volatile security situations will take their toll on consumer demand in the short term 41. Iraq mobile: Political instability and low oil prices will impact the economy, but data offer some potential for revenue growth 42. Iraq fixed: Poor fixed line infrastructure and persistent civil war will contribute to the under-development of the sector 43. Israel: Competition and price erosion will continue to impact mobile revenue; fixed market liberalisation will spur competition 44. Israel mobile: Intense competition will result in significant revenue decline, while 3G share will start to fall from Israel fixed: Speed upgrades and the introduction of fibre in 2016 will spur further growth in broadband market revenue 46. Kuwait: Mobile market dynamism and growth are contrasted with a fixed market that lacks competition and investment 47. Kuwait mobile: LTE will be central to mobile market competition as operators aim to increase data usage to stabilise ARPU 48. Kuwait fixed: Planned privatisation of fixed infrastructure and fixed mobile partnerships could unlock broadband potential 49. Morocco: Voice revenue will decline, but still dominate the market, while mobile handset data will be the fastest-growing sector 50. Morocco mobile: Strong growth of data revenue will be insufficient to offset rapidly declining voice revenue 51. Morocco fixed: Fixed voice market will remain largely resilient, while broadband adoption will be driven by business and dual-play 52. Oman: Service revenue growth will maintain its rapid rise, driven by very strong demand for fixed and mobile data 53. Oman mobile: Very strong data revenue outlook, while a new third entrant could pose a risk of ARPU and market value erosion 54. Oman fixed: Fixed voice revenue will decline from 2015, while fibre competition increases due to ambitious roll-out plans 55. Qatar: Strong economic and population growth will help telecoms services to generate QAR10 billion in retail revenue by 56. Qatar mobile: Demand from migrants will sustain growth in connections, while 4G competition will be based on technology 57. Qatar fixed: Quasi-ubiquity of fibre creates opportunities for upselling of TV services, but these will be limited to Ooredoo 58. Saudi Arabia: Broadband data services will drive retail revenue growth, but competition will reduce short-term market growth 59. Saudi Arabia mobile: MVNOs will drive subscriber growth in the short term, while data will capture half of retail revenue by 60. Saudi Arabia fixed: Voice market recovered in 2015 thanks to the business segment while broadband outlook appears strong 61. Tunisia: Infrastructure investments and competition will help stimulate growth amidst political and economic challenges 62. Tunisia mobile: Steady growth of subscribers from Lycamobile launch, while demand for data will be key to revenue growth 4

5 Contents 63. Tunisia fixed: The broadband market will grow slowly due to competition from mobile, while the telephony market will contract 64. UAE: Economic diversification and population growth will help increase telecoms retail revenue to AED42.9 billion by 65. UAE mobile: Increasing contributions from postpaid and data users should help to drive revenue growth and slow ARPU erosion 66. UAE fixed: Infrastructure sharing will stimulate competition and encourage operators to invest in the sector to maintain growth 67. About the author and Analysys Mason 68. About the author 69. Analysys Mason s consulting and research are uniquely positioned 70. Research from Analysys Mason 71. Consulting from Analysys Mason 5

6 List of figures Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2011 Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2015 Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2015 ) and total retail revenue () by country, Middle East and North Africa Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for the Middle East and North Africa Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA penetration of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, Figure 6: Metrics for the twelve countries modelled individually in the Middle East and North Africa, 2015 Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2011 Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2015 Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2015 Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2011 Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G s share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2011 Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G share of total connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2015 and Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2011 Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2011 Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2011 Figure 16: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory (2016 ) by country, Middle East and North Africa Figure 17: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Algeria, 2011 Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Algeria, 2015 Figure 20: Connections by type, and growth rates, Algeria, 2015 Figure 21: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Algeria, 2011 Figure 22: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Algeria, 2011 Figure 23: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Algeria Figure 24: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Algeria,

7 List of figures Figure 25: Fixed ASPU by service type, Algeria, 2011 Figure 26: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Algeria Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Egypt, 2011 Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Egypt, 2015 Figure 29: Connections by type, and growth rates, Egypt, 2015 Figure 30: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Egypt, 2011 Figure 31: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Egypt, 2011 Figure 32: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Egypt Figure 33: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Egypt, 2011 Figure 34: Fixed ASPU by service type, Egypt, 2011 Figure 35: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Egypt Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Iran, 2011 Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Iran, 2015 Figure 38: Connections by type, and growth rates, Iran, 2015 Figure 39: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Iran, 2011 Figure 40: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Iran, 2011 Figure 41: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Iran Figure 42: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Iran, 2011 Figure 43: Fixed ASPU by service type, Iran, 2011 Figure 44: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Iran Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Iraq, 2011 Figure 46: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Iraq, 2015 Figure 47: Connections by type, and growth rates, Iraq, 2015 Figure 48: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Iraq, 2011 Figure 49: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Iraq, 2011 Figure 50: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Iraq Figure 51: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Iraq, 2011 Figure 52: Fixed ASPU by service type, Iraq, 2011 Figure 53: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Iraq Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Israel, 2011 Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Israel, 2015 Figure 56: Connections by type, and growth rates, Israel,

8 List of figures Figure 57: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Israel, 2011 Figure 58: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Israel, 2011 Figure 59: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Israel Figure 60: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Israel, 2011 Figure 61: Fixed ASPU by service type, Israel, 2011 Figure 62: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Israel Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Kuwait, 2011 Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Kuwait, 2015 Figure 65: Connections by type, and growth rates, Kuwait, 2015 Figure 66: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Kuwait, 2011 Figure 67: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kuwait, 2011 Figure 68: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait Figure 69: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Kuwait, 2011 Figure 70: Fixed ASPU by service type, Kuwait, 2011 Figure 71: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Morocco, 2011 Figure 73: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Morocco, 2015 Figure 74: Connections by type, and growth rates, Morocco, 2015 Figure 75: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Morocco, 2011 Figure 76: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Morocco, 2011 Figure 77: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Morocco Figure 78: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Morocco, 2011 Figure 79: Fixed ASPU by service type, Morocco, 2011 Figure 80: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Morocco Figure 81: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Oman, 2011 Figure 82: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Oman, 2015 Figure 83: Connections by type, and growth rates, Oman, 2015 Figure 84: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Oman, 2011 Figure 85: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Oman, 2011 Figure 86: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Oman Figure 87: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Oman,

9 List of figures Figure 88: Fixed ASPU by service type, Oman, 2011 Figure 89: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Oman Figure 90: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Qatar, 2011 Figure 91: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Qatar, 2015 Figure 92: Connections by type, and growth rates, Qatar, 2015 Figure 93: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Qatar, 2011 Figure 94: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Qatar, 2011 Figure 95: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Qatar Figure 96: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Qatar, 2011 Figure 97: Fixed ASPU by service type, Qatar, 2011 Figure 98: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Qatar Figure 99: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Saudi Arabia, 2011 Figure 100: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2015 Figure 101: Connections by type, and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2015 Figure 102: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Saudi Arabia 2011 Figure 103: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Saudi Arabia, 2011 Figure 104: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Saudi Arabia Figure 105: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2011 Figure 106: Fixed ASPU by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2011 Figure 107: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Saudi Arabia Figure 108: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Tunisia, 2011 Figure 109: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Tunisia, 2015 Figure 110: Connections by type, and growth rates, Tunisia, 2015 Figure 111: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Tunisia, 2011 Figure 112: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Tunisia, 2011 Figure 113: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Tunisia Figure 114: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Tunisia, 2011 Figure 115: Fixed ASPU by service type, Tunisia, 2011 Figure 116: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Tunisia Figure 117: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), UAE, 2011 Figure 118: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, UAE,

10 List of figures Figure 119: Connections by type, and growth rates, UAE, 2015 Figure 120: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, UAE, 2011 Figure 121: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UAE, 2011 Figure 122: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UAE Figure 123: Fixed penetration rates by service type, UAE, 2011 Figure 124: Fixed ASPU by service type, UAE, 2011 Figure 125: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, UAE 10

11 Geographical coverage: We model twelve telecoms markets, which will account for 90.7% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA penetration of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 1 ALGERIA TUNISIA EGYPT ISRAEL IRAQ % % % % % MOROCCO % KUWAIT % IRAN Mobile connections by technology generation KEY NGA share of fixed broadband connections % 2G G 4G/5G 67% SAUDI ARABIA QATAR UAE OMAN Year of LTE launch Countries modelled individually % % % % Countries modelled as part of the region Source: Analysys Mason 1 For a full list of countries modelled as part of the MENA region, please see the accompanying data annex. Mobile connections exclude M2M connections. NGA share of fixed broadband connections is calculated as cable, VDSL and FTTH connections (which provide access speeds of 30Mbps or more) divided by the total number of fixed broadband connections. 18

12 Revenue (USD billion) ARPU/ASPU (USD per month) Middle East and North Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016 Revenue and ARPU: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, Retail revenue: Mobile voice Mobile broadband Mobile messaging Mobile M2M Fixed voice and narrowband Business network services Mobile handset data Fixed broadband and IPTV Mobile ARPU 1 Fixed voice ASPU Fixed broadband ASPU 1 Mobile ARPU is calculated as total mobile service revenue (retail and wholesale), excluding M2M, divided by total average mobile connections, excluding M2M Source: Analysys Mason Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2015 Service type Revenue (USD billion) CAGR Mobile voice % 1.1% Mobile messaging % 5.0% Mobile handset data % 8.5% Mobile broadband % 2.0% Mobile M2M % 29.6% Fixed voice and narrowband % 4.0% Fixed broadband and IPTV % 4.7% Business network services % 4.7% Total retail revenue % 1.5% Total service revenue % 1.3% 2 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data. 3 Includes narrowband, VoBB and dial-up Internet access. 4 Includes retail and wholesale revenue. Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2015 Connection type Connections (million) CAGR Mobile handsets % 1.9% Mobile broadband % 4.9% Mobile M2M % 32.2% Fixed voice % 0.7% Fixed broadband % 5.6% IPTV % 15.0% 20

13 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY REGIONAL FORECASTS AND CROSS-COUNTRY COMPARISON INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY FORECASTS ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON 67

14 About the author Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) leads Analysys Mason s The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include operators' digital strategies, new telecoms opportunities and challenges, and consumer trends in growth markets. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Ovum, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications. Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer in the Institute for Communication Systems and Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information Systems Management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human computer interaction from the University of Surrey. 68

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