VIETNAM TELECOMMUNICATION MARKET REPORT Q2/2018

Transcription

1 VIETNAM TELECOMMUNICATION MARKET REPORT Q2/2018 1

2 Contents Executive summary 4 Landline phones Business environment Competitive analysis Macroeconomic situation Issues in industry development Legal framework 9 Industry risks Trade agreements 17 SWOT analysis Industry overview 23 Industry development trends Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world Industry planning Market scale 24 Industry planning Internet 25 Forecast Mobile phones 33 Recommendations Landline phones Enterprise analysis Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry VNPT History of the industry VNPT VinaPhone Telecommunications market scale and infrastructure Viettel 94 Market scale MobiFone 99 Internet Evaluation of the top three business results 101 Mobile phones 54 2

3 Abbreviations MIC Ministry of Information and Communications IPv6/ IPv4 Internet Protocol version 6/4 IT Information Technology ITU International Telecommunication Union FIA Foreign Investment Department MobiFone MobiFone Telecommunications Corporation FPT FPT Telecom Joint Stock Company Vietnamobile Vietnamobile Mobility Telecom Joint Stock Company GfK Vietnam GfK Vietnam Technology and Retail Market Research Company Limited Viettel Viettel Telecom Group GSO General Statistics Office VinaPhone VNPT Telecommunications Services Corporation - VinaPhone Gtel Global Telecommunications Corporation VIRAC Vietnam Industry Research And Consultant IoT Internet of Things VNPT Vietnam Posts and Telecommunications Group M2M Machine to Machine VNTA Department of Telecom 3

4 Executive summary Vietnam's telecom sector continues to have significant growth potential, especially in the field of 3G for mobile phones and FTTH for wired networks. The high cost of 3G in the end of 2013 has caused telecom revenues to increase in recent years In general, the trend of using 2G services has decreased sharply over the years, while 3G has been increasing continuously in recent years In the period of , Internet revenue had been growing continuously over the years with an average growth rate of 30% per year, 4

5 Executive summary In 2017, International Data Group (IDG) also announced the results of the "Consumer Satisfaction Survey on 4G Services in Vietnam in 2017" Revenue from mobile services in showed signs of a sharp drop as average revenue per subscriber decreased trillion VND Revenue from typical businesses, 2014 Q1/2018e Landline phone revenue has been steadily decreasing over the years. This is due to a decrease in subscriber numbers as well as ARPU reduction. Source: VIRAC, MIC 5

6 Contents 1. Business environment 1.1 Macroeconomic situation 1.2 Legal framework 1.3 Trade agreements 6

7 1. Business environment 1.1 Macroeconomic situation GDP growth, 2011 Q1/2018 gross domestic product in the Q1/2018 was estimated to increase by 7.38%, compared to the same period in the previous year Source: VIRAC, GSO trillion VND Market scale of electronics retail in Vietnam by quarter, Q1/2013 Q1/2018 Source: VIRAC, GfK 7

8 1. Business environment 1.1 Macroeconomic situation Vietnam's population has grown rapidly over the last few decades. Population pyramid, 2016 The rate of urbanization has increased over the years Rate of urbanization, Source: VIRAC, GSO Source: VIRAC, GSO 8

9 Contents 1. Business environment 1.1 Macroeconomic situation 1.2 Legal framework 1.3 Trade agreements 9

10 1. Business environment 1.2 Legal framework Telecommunications Law issued in 2009 on 23/11/2009, effective from 7/1/2010: 10

11 1. Business environment 1.2 Legal framework Decree No. 25/2011/ND-CP issued by the Government dated 6 April 2011, the decree includes 46 articles detailing the contents of telecommunication services business, network establishment and telecommunication services, telecommunication licensing, resources, technical standards, quality and telecommunication charges, telecommunications works. 11

12 1. Business environment 1.2 Legal framework Decree No. 174/2013/ND-CP stipulates the sanctioning of administrative violations in the fields of post, telecommunications, information technology and radio frequencies effective from January 15,

13 1. Business environment 1.2 Legal framework 13

14 1. Business environment 1.2 Legal framework Telecoms macro policies Directive 11/CT-BTTTT dated 18 March 2016 on enhancing the protection of private information of users of services and preventing the illegal trading of mobile SIM. 14

15 1. Business environment 1.2 Legal framework Telecoms macro policies 15

16 1. Business environment 1.2 Legal framework Telecoms macro policies MIC and ITU signed cooperation agreements on satellite control 16

17 1. Business environment 1.2 Legal framework Telecoms macro policies On June 23, 2017, Ministry of Information and Communications issued Circular No. 11/2017/TT-BTTTT on amending and supplementing some articles of Circular No. 08/2013/TT-BTTTT on regulation of service quality management and the Circular No. 14/2007/TT-BTTTT amending and supplementing some contents of the Circular No. 18/2011/TT-BTTTT on the process of verifying base stations of public land mobile phones.. 17

18 1. Business environment 1.2 Legal framework Telecoms macro policies On December 29, 2017, Ministry of Information and Communications issued Circular No. 47/2017/TT-BTTTT 18

19 1. Business environment 1.2 Legal framework Telecoms macro policies On January 12, 2018, Ministry of Finance issued Circular No. 03/2018/TT-BTC 19

20 1. Business environment 1.2 Legal framework Telecoms macro policies 20

21 Contents 1. Business environment 1.1 Macroeconomic situation 1.2 Legal framework 1.3 Trade agreements 21

22 1. Business environment 1.3 Trade agreements By the end of the first quarter of 2018, Vietnam has signed, implemented, and has been negotiating a total of 17 free trade agreements (FTAs). Vietnam's integration process since 1995 to date

23 1. Business environment 1.3 Trade agreements Electronics and Telecommunications in CPTPP negotiations 23

24 1. Business environment 1.3 Trade agreements 24

25 1. Business environment 1.3 Trade agreements The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) was formally established by the end of 2015: 25

26 1. Business environment 1.3 Trade agreements Impact of WTO accession: 26

27 Contents 2. Industry overview 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry 2.3 Issues in industry development 2.4 Industry planning, Forecast và Recommendations 27

28 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world Market scale billion Euro World Telecommunication Market Revenue, e Source: VIRAC, Statista Telecommunications market revenue by region, Content is intentionally removed billion Euro for demo 2012 purpose f Among the telecommunications services markets, Asia-Pacific is the region with the highest telecom service market value, and is consistently growing at a steady rate. Source: VIRAC, Statista 28

29 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world Internet Number of internet users in the world, More than 50% of the population do not use the Internet. Million subscribers Source: VIRAC, ITU With over 41% of the world population, Asia-Pacific is the region with the highest number of Internet users in the world. Number of internet users by region, Source: VIRAC, ITU 29

30 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world and in Asia-Pacific Internet % Penetration rate per 100 people by region, Internet penetration in all regions of the world tends to increase in the period Source: VIRAC, ITU Number of Internet subscribers in Asia-Pacific region, Million subscribers Source: VIRAC, ITU 30

31 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world Internet Number of fixed broadband Internet subscribers worldwide, e Million subscribers Fixed broadband penetration, e Source: VIRAC, ITU Source: VIRAC, ITU Internet bandwidth technology has been constantly changing throughout the years since the Internet was founded and developed. 31

32 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world Internet Million subscribers The number of fixed broadband subscribers in Asia Pacific, e % Fixed broadband penetration rates by region, e Source: VIRAC, ITU Source: VIRAC, ITU The number of fixed-line subscribers in Asia-Pacific declined sharply in European countries are leading the world in penetration/population. 32

33 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world Internet Million subscribers Number of mobile broadband subscribers in the world, Asia-Pacific also has the largest mobile broadband subscriber base in the world, Source: VIRAC, ITU Million subscribers Number of mobile broadband subscribers by region, Source: VIRAC, ITU 33

34 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world and in Asia-Pacific Internet % Mobile broadband penetration rates by region, Europe and America continue to be the top two regions in penetration rates for mobile broadband. The number of mobile broadband connections in Asia-Pacific, million people 2017 Source: VIRAC, ITU Mobile broadband has become an important strategy for the Asia-Pacific region. Source: VIRAC, ITU 34

35 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world and in Asia-Pacific Internet The penetration rate of 2G, 3G, 4G networks in the world, f 2G wireless penetration is trending in contrast to 3G, 4G. Source: VIRAC, ITU Internet penetration rate in Southeast Asia, 2016 Source: VIRAC, ITU 35

36 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world and in Asia-Pacific Internet 2G, 3G and 4G wireless penetration in Asia Pacific, f Source: VIRAC, ITU Rate of monthly income/income per capita by country group, % of countries reach their target charges Source: VIRAC, ITU 36

37 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world and in Asia-Pacific Mobile phones Number of mobile subscribers in the world, Million subscribers Source: VIRAC, ITU % Mobile phone penetration rates and subscribers worldwide, e Source: VIRAC, ITU 37

38 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world and in Asia-Pacific Mobile phones Million subscribers Mobile subscribers in Asia Pacific, % Mobile penetration per 100 people by region, Source: VIRAC, ITU Source: VIRAC, ITU Asia-Pacific is the largest contributor to the global mobile subscriber market over the past five years and forecast to extend this position over the next 10 years. 38

39 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world and in Asia-Pacific Mobile phones billion Euro Top 25 telecom operators that have the highest revenue, 2016 In 2016, AT&T was the largest telecom operator in the world Source: VIRAC, Statista 39

40 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world Landline phones Number of subscribers and fixed service penetration, Million subscribers % Source: VIRAC, ITU Landline phone service penetration rate by country group, Source: VIRAC, ITU 40

41 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world Landline phones Number of fixed subscribers per 100 people in the world, 2015 Source: VIRAC, ITU 41

42 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world Landline phones Million subscribers Total landline phone subscribers by region, Penetration rate per 100 people by region, Source: VIRAC, ITU Source: VIRAC, ITU 42

43 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world Top 10 countries that have the highest indicators of information technology and communication development in the world, 2017 Source: VIRAC, ITU Top 10 countries that have the highest indicators of information technology and communication development in Southeast Asia, 2017 Source: VIRAC, ITU 43

44 Contents 2. Industry overview 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry 2.3 Issues in industry development 2.4 Industry planning, Forecast và Recommendations 44

45 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry History of the industry According to WTO s definition: Telecommunications services are divided into two groups: 45

46 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry History of the industry History of Vietnam telecommunications 8/ / Service stage: 46

47 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry History of the industry Corporate stage Market opening phase to create competition 47

48 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry History of the industry Preparatory phase for international integration 48

49 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Telecommunications market scale and infrastructure Market scale billion USD Telecoms revenue, 2011 Q1/2018e Source: VIRAC, MIC Vietnam's telecommunications sector continues to have significant growth potential, particularly in the field of 3G for mobile phones and FTTH for wired networks. 49

50 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Telecommunications market scale and infrastructure Market scale FDI attraction by sector, Q1/2018 Source: VIRAC, FIA 50

51 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Telecommunications market scale and infrastructure - Internet Million users Number of internet users, 2010 Q1/2018e Revenue from Internet, 2010 Q1/2018e Source: VIRAC, VNTA Source: VIRAC 51

52 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Telecommunications market scale and infrastructure - Internet Million subscribers Number of fixed broadband internet subscribers and 3G mobile network, 2012 Q1/2018e Source: VIRAC, VNTA Market share (subscribers) of broadband Internet service, 2017e Source: VIRAC 52

53 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Telecommunications market scale and infrastructure - Internet Vietnam Internet market still maintains its niche with the majority of the market share of the three major networks such as VNPT, Viettel and FPT Telecom. Market share under xdsl internet subscribers, 2017e Market share under FTTH internet subscribers, 2017e Source: VIRAC, VNTA Source: VIRAC, VNTA 53

54 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Telecommunications market scale and infrastructure - Internet Total Internet connection in domestic and international, 2010 Q1/2018e Source: VIRAC, VNTA 54

55 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Telecommunications market scale and infrastructure - Internet Million subscribers 2G and 3G subscribers, 2011 Q1/2018e Market share by subscribers of 2G services of enterprises, e Source: VIRAC, MIC In general, the trend of using 2G services has decreased sharply over the years, while 3G has been increasing continuously in recent years. Source: VIRAC Market share by 3G service subscriber of enterprises, e * Gtel has not yet been 3G licensed Source: VIRAC 55

56 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Telecommunications market scale and infrastructure - Internet Thousand stations Number of 2G and 3G BTS stations, e Source: VIRAC 56

57 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Telecommunications market scale and infrastructure - Internet According to the test plan from the beginning of 2017, the Department of Telecommunications has carried out quality measurement of 4G network of 3 operators namely VinaPhone, MobiFone and Viettel. Mbps Speed of Internet access in some countries, 2017 Source: VIRAC, OpenSignal Quality of 2G/3G/4G services of main telecom operators, 2017 Source: VIRAC 57

58 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Telecommunications market scale and infrastructure - Internet 3G & 4G universality in some countries, 2016 Source: VIRAC, OpenSignal Wifi has a great influence on the majority of the world using smart phones to optimize costs. Time to use wifi in some countries, 2016 Source: VIRAC, OpenSignal 58

59 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Telecommunications market scale and infrastructure Mobile phones billion USD Revenue from mobile services, 2010 Q1/2018e Source: VIRAC Million subscribers Mobile market, 2011 Q1/2018 * Number of subscribers incurred charge Source: VIRAC 59

60 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Telecommunications market scale and infrastructure Mobile phones Market share (subscribers) by businesses, 2017e Source: VIRAC Number of mobile subscribers by business, e Million subscribers Source: VIRAC 60

61 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Industry scale Landline phones Landline phone revenue has been steadily decreasing over the years. This is due to a decrease in subscriber numbers as well as ARPU reduction. billion VND Revenue of Landline phone, 2010 Q1/2018e Number of landline subscribers, 2011 Q1/2018e Million subscribers Source: VIRAC Source: VIRAC 61

62 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Industry scale Landline phones The number of fixed-line subscribers increased sharply in the period before 2009, then dropped sharply over the years. Landline subscriber rate per 100 people, Market share (subscription) of landline phone service, Source: VIRAC, MIC, ITC Source: VIRAC 62

63 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Industry scale Landline phones Number of new and outgoing subscribers, 2015 Turnover by service constitutes of businesses, 2015 (billion VND) VNPT Viettel SPT Source: VIRAC, MIC Source: VIRAC, MIC 63

64 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Competitive analysis - Distribution channel Distribution model of Viettel Viettel's weaknesses in the distribution channel are: Source: VIRAC, Viettel 64

65 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Competitive analysis - Distribution channel Distribution model of VinaPhone Source: VIRAC, VinaPhone 65

66 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Competitive analysis - Distribution channel Distribution model of MobiFone Source: VIRAC, MobiFone Distribution channel of MobiFone is formed in the form of vertical marketing system. 66

67 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Competitive analysis - Distribution channel Distribution model of VinaPhone and MobiFone Viettel MobiFone VinaPhone Vietnamobile 67

68 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Competitive analysis Service charges Comparison among 4G package prices from typical operators, 2017 Telecom operator Pack of data Charges Viettel MobiFone VinaPhone 68

69 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Competitive analysis Service charges VNPT: Comparison among internet prices from typical operators,

70 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Competitive analysis Service charges FPT: Comparison among internet prices from typical operators, 2017 Pack of data 70

71 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Competitive analysis Service charges Viettel: Comparison among internet prices from typical operators,

72 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Competitive analysis Service charges 72

73 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Competitive analysis Service charges 73

74 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Competitive analysis Service charges The cost of landline calls is lower. 74

75 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry Competitive analysis Promotions In general, MobiFone's promotions are more diversified and attractive than Viettel and VinaPhone's. 75

76 Contents 2. Industry overview 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry 2.3 Issues in industry development 2.4 Industry planning, Forecast và Recommendations 16

77 2.3 Issues in industry development Industry risks Competitive risks 77

78 2.3 Issues in industry development Industry risks Business strategy risk 78

79 2.3 Issues in industry development SWOT analysis S W O T 79

80 2.3 Issues in industry development Industry development trends IT - Telecoms operators will be aggressively preparing for the adoption of the MNP The most discounted price is roaming charges. 80

81 2.3 Issues in industry development Industry development trends With the growth of the Internet, smartphones and especially the sensors, Internet of Things (IoT) and M2M (Machine to Machine) are becoming the new trend of the world. 81

82 2.3 Issues in industry development Industry development trends Although most firms have achieved impressive growth, Vietnam's telecommunications infrastructure still needs to be upgraded and improved. 82

83 2.3 Issues in industry development Industry development trends Learnings from abroad investment Threats from abroad investment 83

84 2.3 Issues in industry development Industry development trends Learnings from abroad investment 84

85 Contents 2. Industry overview 2.1 Current status of the telecommunications industry in the world 2.2 Current status of Vietnam telecommunications industry 2.3 Issues in industry development 2.4 Industry planning, Forecast and Recommendations 16

86 2.4 Industry planning, Forecast and Recommendations Industry planning Decision No. 32/2012/QD-TTg dated July 27, 2012 on approving the National Telecommunications Development Plan up to

87 2.4 Industry planning, Forecast and Recommendations Industry planning 87

88 2.4 Industry planning, Forecast and Recommendations Industry planning 88

89 2.4 Industry planning, Forecast and Recommendations Industry planning 89

90 2.4 Industry planning, Forecast and Recommendations Industry planning Decision No. 149/QD-TTg of January 21, 2016 approving the program on development of broadband telecommunications infrastructure up to

91 2.4 Industry planning, Forecast and Recommendations Forecast Forecast for telecommunication subscriber growth, 2017f-2020f Million subscribers Source: VIRAC 91

92 2.4 Industry planning, Forecast and Recommendations Recommendations Recommendations on developing distribution channels and marketing 92

93 2.4 Industry planning, Forecast and Recommendations Recommendations Recommendations on developing and improving products and services Recommendations on infrastructure development 93

94 2.4 Industry planning, Forecast and Recommendations Recommendations Research and deploy IoT applications to help operators leverage their revenue growth potential: In addition, network operators can add other IoT applications such as: 94

95 Contents 3. Enterprise analysis 86

96 3. Enterprise analysis 3.1 VNPT Introduction VNPT Telecommunications Group: 15

97 3. Enterprise analysis 3.1 VNPT Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats 97

98 3. Enterprise analysis 3.2 VNPT - VinaPhone Introduction of VNPT Vietnam Posts and Telecommunications Group - VinaPhone: 15

99 3. Enterprise analysis 3.2 VNPT - VinaPhone In 2017, Vietnam Post and Telecommunications Group has the following outstanding activities: 99

100 3. Enterprise analysis 3.2 VNPT - VinaPhone Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats 100

101 3. Enterprise analysis 3.3 Viettel Introduction of Vietnam Military Telecoms Company - Viettel telecom: 15

102 3. Enterprise analysis 3.3 Viettel In 2017, Viettel Military Telecommunications Group has the following outstanding activities: 15

103 3. Enterprise analysis 3.3 Viettel Strengths Weaknesses 103

104 3. Enterprise analysis 3.3 Viettel Opportunities Threats 104

105 3. Enterprise analysis 3.4 MobiFone Introduction of Vietnam Mobile Telecom Services Corporation - Mobifone: 15

106 3. Enterprise analysis 3.4 MobiFone In 2017, Vietnam Mobile Telecom Services Corporation has the following outstanding activities: 106

107 3. Enterprise analysis 3.5 Evaluation of the top three business results trillion VND Revenue from typical businesses, 2014 Q1/2018e Source: VIRAC, MIC trillion VND Pre-tax profit of typical enterprises, 2014 Q1/2018e Source: VIRAC, MIC 107

108 REPORT DISCLAIMER REPORT DISCLAIMER This document has been prepared in good faith on the basis of information available at the date of publication without any independent verification. VIRAC has produced this report for private circulation to professional clients only. All information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable and made to ensure the accuracy of the contents of the pages of the report at the time of preparation. Such information has not been independently verified and VIRAC makes no representation or warranty, whether express or implied, of any kind with respect to the document and its contents, information and materials. The content found in this report is proprietary to VIRAC and is provided solely for your personal and non-commercial use. You agree that you will not use this report for any purpose that is unlawful and that you will not reproduce the report or redistribute it outside your organisation, or place it on a website for public access without the express written permission of VIRAC. SHOULD YOU NEED ANY ASSISTANCE, PLEASE CONTACT US: VIETNAM INDUSTRY RESEARCH AND CONSULTANCY (VIRAC JSC.,) 6 th Floor, Anh Minh Building, 36 Hoang Cau, O Cho Dua, Dong Da, Hanoi, Vietnam Website: viracresearch@virac.com.vn Tel:

109 Thank you! 109