SATELLITE VALUE CHAIN: SNAPSHOT 2018

Transcription

1 SATELLITE VALUE CHAIN: SNAPSHOT 2018 KEY TRENDS AND INDICATORS ON SUPPLY & DEMAND OF THE WORLD COMMERCIAL SATELLITE INDUSTRY AN EXTRACT A Euroconsult Executive Report Euroconsult Unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation

2 THE BEST OF EUROCONSULT S RESEARCH REPORT CONTENT COMES FROM: SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2027 SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS & BROADCASTING MARKETS SURVEY SATELLITE-BASED EARTH OBSERVATION: MARKET PROSPECTS TO 2027 HIGH THROUGHPUTSATELLITES: VERTICAL MARKET ANALYSIS & FORECASTS PROSPECTS FOR IN-FLIGHT ENTERTAINMENT & CONNECTIVITY PROSPECTS FOR MARITIME SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET TABLE OF CONTENTS OF THE FULL REPORT INTRODUCTION TO THE VALUE CHAIN CONCEPT OVERVIEW OF THE COMMERCIAL SATELLITE VALUE CHAIN IN 2017 THE THREE COMMERCIAL SATELLITE VALUE CHAINS 2017 SNAPSHOT THE THREE COMMERCIAL SATELLITE VALUE CHANS 5 YEAR EVOLUTION SELECTED TRENDS ALON THE VALUE CHAIN SATELLITE MANUFACTURING & LAUNCH SERVICES FACTS AND FIGURES 2017 KEY EVENTS 2018 SATELLITE MANUFACTURING KEY EVENTS 2018 LAUNCH SERVICES SATELLITES LAUNCHED OVER THE DECADE COMMERCIAL SATELLITES LAUNCHED OVER THE DECADE SATELLITES LAUNCHED IN 2018 SATELLITE MANUFACTURING GEO SATELLITE MANUFACTURING SMALL SATELLITE MANUFACTURING LAUNCH SERVICES LAUNCH RATE GEO LAUNCH SERVICES STRATEGIC ISSUES SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS FACTS AND FIGURES 2017 KEY EVENTS 2018 SATELLITE OPERATORS SATELLITE OPERATORS SATELLITE CONSTELLATIONS VIDEO SERVICES MOBILITY SERVICE PROVIDERS LANDSCAPE STRATEGIC ISSUES EARTH OBSERVATION FACTS AND FIGURES 2017 KEY EVENTS 2018 SATELLITE OPERATORS EO COMMERCIAL OPERATORS - PROFILES COMMERCIAL DATA MARKET FREE- AND LOW-COST SOLUTIONS VALUE-ADDED SERVICES STRATEGIC ISSUES THE Euroconsult EUROCONSULT GROUP Unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation SATELLITE NAVIGATION FACTS AND FIGURES 2017 KEY EVENTS 2018 GNSS SYSTEMS GNSS DEVICE MARKET GNSS SERVICE MARKET DRONES SELECTED GNSS MACROTRENDS STRATEGIC ISSUES

3 01\ INTRODUCTION TO THE SATELLITE VALUE CHAIN

4 INTRODUCTION TO THE VALUE CHAIN CONCEPT UPSTREAM SATELLITE MANUFACTURING SUB SYSTEMS PRIME LAUNCHER MANUFACTURING SUB SYSTEMS PRIME The satellite industry is an infrastructure supplier to government agencies and commercial companies. It operates upstream of a value chain that flows downstream to the end-users of satellite capabilities. The satellite value chain permits the delivery of space-based services reliant on satellite technology, and includes a wide diversity of stakeholders, active at five levels of the chain: LAUNCH SERVICES SPACE AGENCIES 1. Government agencies who fund space technology R&D for their own uses and for dual-uses: public R&D efforts remain highly concentrated in a limited number of countries; INVESTORS INSURERS 2. The space industry (upstream) that includes a limited number of players who design and manufacture space systems and their launch vehicles; GROUND SEGMENT SATELLITE OPERATORS REGULATORS 3. The satellite operators who own the satellite systems and market their capacities to the service providers (downstream) who deliver communications, navigation and geographic information services to the final users by integrating the satellite signal into packaged solutions; DOWNSTREAM MILITARY PUBLIC CIVIL BUSINESS CONSUMERS SATELLITE SERVICE PROVIDERS 4. Ground segment and terminal suppliers, who design and deliver a large variety of software and equipment for both the management of satellite infrastructure, and for the access to services by the users. Customers stand along the value chain; 5. The final users, whether governmental (civil/military) or commercial (business or customer), do not ask for the satellite technology per se but for solutions tailored to their needs, whether for better communications, navigation or geographic information services. Euroconsult Unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation

5 INTRODUCTION TO OVERVIEW OF THE COMMERCIAL SATELLITE VALUE CHAIN IN

6 02\ SATELLITE MANUFACTURING & LAUNCH SERVICES

7 SATELLITE MANUFACTURING & LAUNCH SERVICES FACTS AND FIGURES 2017 $227 Billion Market value for manufacturing and launch over the decade 203 Commercial satellites launched over the decade $174 Billion Manufacturing market value over the decade $13 Billion Launch market value over the decade 141 Satellites* launched in 2017 in 74 launches 50% of all satellites launched in 2017 were commercial $4 Billion 2017 commercial manufacturing revenues $1.5 Billion 2017 commercial launch revenues 93% 2017 launch success rate 330 Smallsats launched in % of smallsats launched in 2017 were for Earth Observation commercial GEO satellites ordered * Satellites with launch mass >50 kg, excluding cargo and manned missions Euroconsult Unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation

8 SATELLITE MANUFACTURING & LAUNCH SERVICES KEY EVENTS 2018 SATELLITE MANUFACTURING January ÅAC Microtec acquires Clyde Space for $35,3 million March Launch of first two Starlink prototypes for SpaceX s internet communication constellation June ISRO entrusts its private sector to manufacture 27 satellites over 3 years September Eutelsat orders two all-electric GEO comsats from Airbus DS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 China will provide two GEO comsats to Nigeria against an equity stake in Nigcomsat February EarthNow unveils an EO megaconstellation project, with OneWeb synergies May Maxar considers leaving the GEO satellite manufacturing market July DARPA announces support for Telesat broadband constellation November Euroconsult Unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation

9 SATELLITE MANUFACTURING & LAUNCH SERVICES KEY EVENTS 2018 LAUNCH SERVICES October January First failure (partial) of Ariane 5 in over 15 years and 82 launches June $130 million USAF contract for the Falcon Heavy August Russia suspends development of Proton Medium to accelerate the transition towards Angara USAF awards $2 billion in contracts to Blue Origin, Northrop Grumman and ULA to develop launch prototypes Failure of the ZhuQue-1 maiden flight (first Chinese private launch vehicle) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Successful maiden flight of SpaceX s Falcon Heavy ISRO unveils the Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV) The main US military launch provider, ULA, selects Vulcan BE- 4 engine for its launch vehicle September Successful maiden flight of the upgraded Indian GSLV Mk. III November February Euroconsult Unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation

10 SATELLITE MANUFACTURING & LAUNCH SERVICES SATELLITES LAUNCHED OVER THE DECADE SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY CLIENT ( ) SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY REGION OF OPERATORS ( ) # satellites 140 Middle East & Africa (4%) Latin America (2%) Civil government Europe (15%) Asia (32%) Military Commercial Russia & Central Asia (17%) 1020 satellites North America (30%) SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY APPLICATION ( ) Science (5%) Navigation (11%) Security (8%) Technology (5%) Earth Observation (26%) Exploration (2%) 1020 satellites Satcom (43%) Euroconsult Unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation A total of 1020 satellites (>50kg) have been launched worldwide over the decade by government agencies and commercial clients, i.e. an average of 102 units/year. The rise of small satellites and megaconstellations in the next 10 years will dramatically increase this number. Governments remain the first client of the space industry, accounting for 68% of the 1020 satellites launched over the decade (i.e. 692 units). With constellation projects, commercial clients shall surpass governments in terms of number of satellites launched (but not in value). Telecommunication is by far the largest application with 437 satellites launched over , while Earth observation programs accounted for 269 satellites. Together, these two applications represented 69% of the total. The remaining six applications accounted for 314 satellites. Over , Asia and North America combined accounted for 631 satellites, predominantly for governments. On the commercial side, North America led worldwide commercial demand, with 168 satellites, of which 53 in 2017 alone.

11 03\ SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS

12 SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS FACTS AND FIGURES FSS operators offer satellite capacity 18 satellite operators offering HTS capacity $12.2 Billion in FSS & MSS wholesale capacity revenue -0.5% growth rate of satellite capacity revenue 4.9 Million MSS terminals worldwide >2.5M Fixed VSAT terminals worldwide 288 Million satellite pay-tv subscribers >42,100 satellite TV channels $22.2 Billion telecom services revenue $129 Billion total satellite services revenue 11% growth of mobility service revenue Euroconsult Unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation

13 SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS KEY EVENTS 2018 February Airbus, OneWeb, Delta Air Lines, Sprint, and Airtel found an alliance to develop and promote in-flight connectivity technology standards July Echostar abandons its attempt to acquire Inmarsat for $3.2 billion October C-Band Alliance formed, offering a way for satellite operators to monetize spectrum assets Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Hispasat invests in LEOSat, becoming the start-up s second strategic investor, the other one being Sky Perfect JSAT June $ Yahsat s acquisition of Thuraya establishes Yahsat as an integrated FSS- MSS operator with a dominant presence in the Middle East, Africa and Southwest Asia Iridium completes launch of satellites for its NEXT constellation December (anticipated) August Euroconsult Unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation

14 SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITE OPERATORS REVENUE $ in billion SATELLITE OPERATORS WHOLESALE REVENUE ( ) MSS Oceans (5%) Russia & Central Asia (4%) Latin America (13%) FSS REVENUE BY REGION (2017) North America (20%) 8 6 FSS $10.8 billion Middle East & Africa (16%) 4 Asia & Oceania (23%) Europe (19%) Latin America (7%) Asia & Oceania (16%) Europe (18%) MSS REVENUE BY REGION (2017) $1.48 billion North America (37%) Middle East & Africa (22%) Euroconsult Unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation Satellite capacity is the primary revenue source for both FSS and MSS operators. After the significant drop in revenues recorded in 2015 (more than 5% decrease), total revenue from satellite operators has continued to decrease, falling by 0.5% in 2017, to $12.2 billion. The reduction was entirely due to a decline in FSS operators revenue, which accounts for ~88% of total revenues. Following a period of limited growth for the FSS industry in recent years, revenues declined by -7% in 2015, -0.8% in 2016 and -0.7% in 2017, to $10.8 billion. While the strengthening of the U.S. dollar explained a significant part of the decrease in 2015, it played a marginal role in recent years, with the decline primarily driven by the fierce price competition throughout the year with the oversupply of regular satellite capacity, exacerbated by the rapid expansion of HTS capacity. Total MSS revenue reached $1.48 billion in 2017, with 0.9% growth y-o-y. The speed of MSS operators to adapt to the new market environments (new product, new pricing, new distribution, etc.) has helped MSS operators to control the churn to VSAT and terrestrial competitors.

15 04\ EARTH OBSERVATION

16 EARTH OBSERVATION FACTS AND FIGURES Commercial Earth Observation satellites* launched by 36 countries (plus ESA) 8% Annual growth in the market 162 Non-meteorology satellites 31 Meteorology satellites $1.4 Billion 2017 commercial data market $15.8 Billion EO manufacturing revenues $3.2 Billion 2017 Commercial VAS market $861 Million 2017 Commercial data market for Defense * Satellites with launch mass >50 kg Euroconsult Unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation

17 EARTH OBSERVATION KEY EVENTS 2018 January Chinese commercial VHR operator Superview / Gaojin launches two 50cm resolution satellites June Maxar creates new EO smallsat division <$ July Airbus DS announces a partnership with Planet November Thales Alenia Space and Telespazio invest in NorthStar Earth and Space Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Iceye and Ursa VAS providers forge SAR data-sharing partnership; Iceye raises $34 million for its SAR satellites April NGA purchases a $14 million subscription for Planet s Dove imagery Launch of the first Argentinian SAR SAOCOM satellite to complete the CSK constellation October $ July Euroconsult Unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation

18 EARTH OBSERVATION VALUE-ADDED SERVICES VALUE-ADDED SERVICES AND DATA MARKETS (2017) Environment (22%) Defense (18%) VALUE-ADDED SERVICES MARKET (BASELINE SCENARIO) ( ) $ US million SERVICES $3.2 B Natural Res. (15%) 6% 10% 4% 6% 2% 10% 1% DATA $1.4 B 61% Disaster Management (5%) Energy (8%) Finance (0,5%) Env. Mon. Natural Resources Maritime LBS Infrastructure Energy Disaster Mgmt. Defense Maritime (2%) LBS (4%) Infrastructure (25%) In 2017, the market for value-added services (VAS) reached $3.2 billion. This does not include the purchase of commercial data in order to develop solutions. Commercial EO data sales totaled $1.4 billion. Key markets for VAS do not mirror those for commercial data sales. To illustrate, defense, while representing 61% of the commercial data market, only represents 18% of the VAS market. Defense end-users purchase data with much of the value-added analytics performed in-house. Conversely, infrastructure and engineering represent only 10% of the commercial data market, but 25% of the value-added market. Lower-cost, coarser resolution and geolocation accuracy data can be leveraged with value-addingto form greater value productsand services. Euroconsult Unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation The VAS market is growing at 5Y CAGR of 7% and is now growing at a faster pace than the commercial data market (5Y CAGR of 5%). The emergence of the wider availability of data sources including free data and more integrated, standardized offerings are expected to stimulate services growth. Historically, growth of the VAS market has been impacted by the fragmented nature of this sector, including by geography and areas of expertise (based on specific vertical markets). There are only a few truly global actors. There are about 1,000 service companies worldwide, the majority with revenues less than $2 million/year attributed to VAS. Other additional business lines include GIS software licensing and development, support satellite operations, and so on.

19 05\ SATELLITE NAVIGATION

20 SATELLITE NAVIGATION FACTS AND FIGURES Navigation satellites launched by governments between 2008 and 2017, including 36 By Russia (GLONASS) 24 By China (BeiDou) 23 By the EU (Galileo) $3.2 Billion 2017 global government expenditures for satellite navigation programmes 11 GNSS satellites launched in 2017 $1.2 Billion 2017 EU spending on Galileo 2.2 Billion 2017 GNSS device shipments $119 Billion 2017 GNSS global revenue of which 33% in Asia Pacific Euroconsult Unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation

21 SATELLITE NAVIGATION KEY EVENTS 2018 January For the first time, Galileo provides operational services for users, including positioning, navigation and timing information September The U.S. Air Force announces the selection of Lockheed Martin to manufacture the new generation of GPS November The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) rules that US devices may access Galileo signals. In the US, Galileo can be used in combination with GPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 The world s first dual-frequency GNSS smartphone is launched by Xiaomi May China and Russia sign a cooperation agreement for the joint use of GLONASS and BeiDou for peaceful purposes October Euroconsult Unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation

22 5000,0 4500,0 4000,0 3500,0 3000,0 2500,0 2000,0 1500,0 1000,0 500,0 SATELLITE NAVIGATION GLOBAL NAVIGATION SATELLITE SYSTEMS (GNSS) GOVERNMENT GNSS BUDGET BY SYSTEM ( ) $ in billion 0, GLONASS 36 (33%) GNSS SATELLITES LAUNCHED ( ) GPS 15 (14%) 110 satellites QZSS 4 (4%) IRNSS / NavIC 8 (7%) BeiDou 24 (22%) Galileo 23 (21%) Euroconsult Unauthorized reproduction is a copyright violation IRNSS / NavIC QZSS BeiDou GLONASS Galileo GPS GNSS SATELLITES LAUNCHED PER YEAR ( ) # satellites GPS (US) GLONASS (RUS) QZSS (JPN) IRNSS / NavIC (IND) Galileo (EU) BeiDou (CN) GNSS is the infrastructure allowing users via small electronic receivers to determine their positioning, velocity and time by processing signals from navigation satellites. GNSS signals are sent by a number of satellite positioning systems and satellite-based augmentation systems (SBAS). Global and regional constellations include GPS (US), GLONASS (Russia), Galileo (EU), BeiDou (China), IRNSS (India), and QZSS (Japan). The SBAS include WAAS, EGNOS, and GAGAN. At present, the US is developing the next-gen GPS 3F. Russia is moving to GLONASS-K2. Galileo, with the launch of 4 satellites in 2017 and 4 more in 2018, is on track to achieve Full Operational Capability (FOC) by In November 2018, the US FCC approved the use of Galileo in US territory. China s BeiDou is expected to reach global coverage by 2020, while IRNSS and QZSS are in deployment. Over the past decade, governments have launched 110 satellites: Russia (36), China (24), Europe (23), US (15), India (8), and Japan (4). In 2017, 11 navigation satelliteswere launched: EU (4), China (2), Russia (1), Japan (3), and India (1). In 2017, global spending on SatNav reached $3.2 billion, growing at an 8% 10Y CAGR from the $2.2 billion governments invested in 2008, but down from the historic peak of $4.6 billion in The cyclical spending over the decade correspondsto GNSS deploymentand replenishmentphases.

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