GLOBAL DEMAND, CAPACITY AND PRICES FOR BUTADIENE STRONG END-USE SECTORS IN CHINA TO DRIVE THE INDUSTRY

Transcription

1 REFERENCE CODE GDCH0006M AR PUBLICAT ION DATE OCTOBER 2014 GLOBAL DEMAND, CAPACITY AND PRICES FOR BUTADIENE STRONG END-USE SECTORS IN CHINA TO DRIVE THE INDUSTRY

2 Executive Summary China to Lead Asia-Pacific to the Forefront of the Global Butadiene Industry China is driving the global butadiene industry with demand from its synthetic rubber and plastics sectors, accounting for XX% of the global butadiene market in 2013 and likely to increase to XX% by Although it has shown some signs of slowing down in the last two years, China s forecast demand growth is expected to remain the highest of all of the major butadiene markets, including the US, South Korea and Japan, over the forecast period. The US and South Korea are the other two largest butadiene markets; however, they are saturated and are not expected to witness strong growth over the forecast period. India, one of the fastestgrowing countries in terms of demand, will grow at a higher-than-average growth rate of XX% to be the ninth largest market by The following figure shows the shares of the major countries in the global butadiene market in 2013 and Butadiene Industry, Global, Demand Value by Country (%), 2013 and 2018 Germany Taiwan Brazil Russia France Japan Other Korea China US Russia Germany Taiwan India France Other Japan Korea Source: GlobalData, Petrochemicals etrack [Accessed on July 14, 2014] China China and Russia to Add the Most Capacity in the Next Five Years China and Russia will be the largest contributors to butadiene capacity in the forecast period, accounting for XX% of global capacity additions. In China, capacity expansion is driven by growing demand from synthetic rubber plants, which use butadiene as a feedstock. The country is likely to add around XX million tons per year (mmty) of new capacity by In Russia, capacity expansion is driven by the government s aim of diversifying the economy, and encouraging the growth of the downstream petrochemicals sector will create more investment for the olefins industry, boosting the wider economy. There are currently two Russian butadiene plants planned, by Vostochnaya Neftechimicheskaya and ZapSibNeftekhim. US 2

3 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents List of Tables List of Figures Introduction Overview GlobalData Report Guidance Global Butadiene Capacity Complete Reliance on Ethylene Production Inhibiting Growth Introduction Asia-Pacific to Maintain Dominance over Supply Global Butadiene Industry, Supply Scenario, Global Planned Butadiene Plants China and Russia Will Add the Most Capacity by Global Butadiene Industry, Company Share, Asia-Pacific to Drive Global Butadiene Demand Global Butadiene Industry, Market Size, Global Butadiene Production, Global Butadiene Demand by End-Use Sector, Global Butadiene Price Forecast, Major Companies Active in the Global Butadiene Industry Sinopec Company Overview Business Overview Sinopec, Global Butadiene Capacity, Sinopec s Active and Planned Butadiene Plants, TPC Company Overview

4 Table of Contents TPC, Global Butadiene Capacity, TPC s Active and Planned Butadiene Plants, PetroChina Company Overview Business Overview PetroChina, Total Installed Capacity, PetroChina s Active and Planned Butadiene Plants, Conclusion Appendix Definitions Installed Capacity Process Technology Abbreviations GlobalData s Research Methodology Coverage Secondary Research Primary Research Expert Panel Validation Disclaimer

5 Table of Contents 1.1 List of Tables Table 1: Butadiene Industry, Global, Capacity by Region (mmty), Table 2: Butadiene Industry, Global, Capacity CAGR by Region (%), Table 3: Butadiene Industry, Global, Major Planned Plant Details, Table 4: Butadiene Industry, Global, Capacity by Company, Table 5: Butadiene Industry, China, Market Size (US$ bil), Table 6: Butadiene Industry, Global, Demand Value by Region (US$ bil), Table 7: Butadiene Industry, Global, Demand Value CAGR by Region (%), Table 8: Butadiene Industry, Global, Demand Volume by Region (mmty), Table 9: Butadiene Industry, Global, Demand Volume CAGR by Region (%), Table 10: Butadiene Industry, Global, Production Volume by Region (mmty), Table 11: Butadiene Industry, Global, Production Volume CAGR by Region (%), Table 12: Butadiene Industry, Global, Demand by End-Use, Share (%), Table 13: Butadiene Industry, Global, Average Price by Region (US$/ton), Table 14: Sinopec, Key Facts, Table 15: Sinopec, Installed Butadiene Capacity (mmty), Table 16: Sinopec, Active and Planned Butadiene Plant Details, Table 17: TPC, Key Facts, Table 18: TPC, Installed Butadiene Capacity (mmty), Table 19: TPC, Active and Planned Butadiene Plant Details, Table 20: PetroChina, Key Facts, Table 21: PetroChina, Installed Butadiene Capacity (mmty), Table 22: PetroChina, Active and Planned Butadiene Plant Details,

6 Table of Contents 1.2 List of Figures Figure 1: Butadiene Industry, Global, Capacity by Region (mmty), Figure 2: Butadiene Industry, Global, Capacity by Company, Figure 3: Butadiene Industry, China, Market Size (US$ bil), Figure 4: Butadiene Industry, Global, Demand Value by Region (US$ bil), Figure 5: Butadiene Industry, Global, Demand Volume by Region (mmty), Figure 6: Butadiene Industry, Global, Production Volume by Region (mmty), Figure 7: Butadiene Industry, Global, Demand by End-Use, Share (%) Figure 8: Butadiene Industry, Global, Average Price by Region (US$/ton), Figure 9: Sinopec, Installed Butadiene Capacity (mmty), Figure 10: TPC, Installed Butadiene Capacity (mmty), Figure 11: PetroChina, Installed Butadiene Capacity (mmty),

7 Introduction 2 Introduction 2.1 Overview GlobalData s report, Global Demand, Capacity and Prices for Butadiene Strong End-use Sectors in China to Drive the Industry provides in-depth coverage of the global butadiene industry, looking at historic and forecast global and regional butadiene demand and capacity, end-use market shares and pricing trends. The information in the report also covers the companies that dominate this market, specifically the three largest producers in the world. These are Methanex Corporation (Methanex), Butadiene Holdings (Trinidad) (Butadiene Holdings), and Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Co. (Mitsubishi Gas Chemical). Butadiene capacity coverage takes a bottoms-up approach based on the sum of all global butadiene plant capacities. Butadiene market coverage, consisting of demand value, demand volume and production volume, is based on data from 23 major countries, which account for more than 85% of global butadiene demand. These countries are China, India, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Russia, Spain, the UK, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Canada, Mexico, the US, Argentina and Brazil. The company profile section provides a business overview of the three largest butadiene companies based on installed butadiene capacity. The section covers historic and forecast butadiene capacity and provides information about petrochemical plants, equity partnership details and production capacity. 8

8 Introduction 2.2 GlobalData Report Guidance Chapter three highlights the main features of the global butadiene industry, providing historical and forecast capacity by region, planned facility details and major company capacity shares. Chapter four provides historical and forecast supply and demand scenarios. This chapter covers the size of the butadiene market, demand and production volume, and price trends by geographical regions from 2003 to Additionally, it provides demand by major end-use sectors in Chapter five presents profiles of the major companies active in the global butadiene industry. Companies covered in this chapter include China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), TPC Group (TPC) and PetroChina Company (PetroChina). Chapter six concludes the report with an industry overview. 9

9 Complete Reliance on Ethylene Production Inhibiting Growth 3.3 Global Butadiene Industry, Supply Scenario, Global butadiene capacity increased from XX mmty in 2003 to XX mmty in 2013, at a CAGR of XX%. It is expected to reach XX mmty by 2018, at a CAGR of XX%. The following figures and tables show global butadiene capacity from 2003 to Figure 1: Butadiene Industry, Global, Capacity by Region (mmty), Capacity (mmty) Asia-Pacific Europe North America South America Middle East and Africa Source: GlobalData, Petrochemicals etrack [Accessed on July 14, 2014] 14

10 Asia-Pacific to Drive Global Butadiene Demand 4.4 Global Butadiene Price Forecast, Global average butadiene prices increased rapidly until XX, but decreased drastically in XX as a global economic recession took hold. Prices rebounded in XX and XX as demand revived, along with many Asian economies. Prices settled in XX and XX and were lower than pre-recession levels in XX. Prices are expected to grow steadily in the next five years, but are not expected to reach their XX peak. Figure 8: Butadiene Industry, Global, Average Price by Region (US$/ton), Average price (US$/ton) Asia-Pacific North America Europe South America Middle East and Africa Global Source: GlobalData, Petrochemicals etrack [accessed on July 14, 2014] 33

11 Asia-Pacific to Drive Global Butadiene Demand Table 13: Butadiene Industry, Global, Average Price by Region (US$/ton), Year Asia-Pacific North America Europe South America Middle East and Africa Total Source: GlobalData, Petrochemicals etrack [Accessed on July 14, 2014] 34

12 Appendix 7 Appendix 7.1 Definitions Installed Capacity Installed capacity refers to the maximum rated output of a plant under specific conditions designated by the manufacturer. It is usually indicated in units of tons on a nameplate affixed to the plant Process A process is a combination of unit operations used in the manufacturing of petrochemicals to change the composition of chemicals Technology Technology is referred to as a technical process used in the petrochemical industry, which is developed by a specific business entity. 50

13 Appendix 7.2 Abbreviations Table 19: List of Abbreviations Abbreviation ABS Butadiene Holdings CAGR CNPC CO 2 EPC FY LNG Methanex Mitsubishi Gas Chemical MMA mmt mmty MTBE NBR NCIC PBR PetroChina SBR Sinopec TPC Expanded form Acrylonitrile-Butadiene-Styrene Butadiene Holdings (Trinidad) Limited Compound Annual Growth Rate China National Petroleum Corporation Carbon dioxide Engineering, Procurement and Commission Fiscal Year Liquefied Natural Gas Methanex Corporation Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Methyl Methacrylate million tons million tons per year Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether Acrylonitrile-Butadiene Rubber Nanjing Chemical Industrial Corporation Polybutadiene Rubber PetroChina Company Limited Styrene-Butadiene Rubber China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation TPC Group, Inc. Source: GlobalData 7.3 GlobalData s Research Methodology GlobalData s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with advanced statistical expertise and marketing, market research and consulting backgrounds in the petrochemical industry. GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society ( and Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals ( 51

14 Appendix All GlobalData databases are continuously updated and revised. The following research methodology is followed for all databases and reports Coverage The objective of updating GlobalData coverage is to ensure that it represents the most up-to-date vision of the industry possible. Changes in the industry taxonomy are built on the basis of extensive research of company, association and competitor sources. Company coverage is based on three key factors: market capitalization; revenues; and media attention/innovation/market potential. An exhaustive search of 56 member exchanges is conducted and companies are prioritized on the basis of their market capitalization. The estimated revenues of all major companies, including private and governmental, are gathered and used to prioritize coverage. Companies that are making news, or which are of particular interest due to their innovative approach are prioritized. GlobalData aims to cover all major news events and deals in the petrochemical industry, updated on a daily basis. The coverage is further streamlined and strengthened with additional inputs from GlobalData s expert panel (see below) Secondary Research The research process begins with extensive secondary research on internal and external sources to gather qualitative and quantitative information relating to each market. Secondary research sources that are typically referred to include, but are not limited to: Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports, investor presentations and US Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC) filings Industry trade journals and other literature Internal and external proprietary databases 52

15 Appendix National government documents, statistical databases and market reports News articles, press releases and webcasts specific to the companies operating in the market Primary Research GlobalData conducts hundreds of primary interviews a year with industry participants and commentators in order to validate its data and analysis. A typical research interview fulfills the following functions: Provides first-hand information on the market size, market trends, growth trends, competitive landscape, and future outlook Helps to validate and strengthen the secondary research findings Further develops the analysis team s expertise and market understanding Primary research involves correspondence and telephone interviews as well as face-to-face interviews for each market, category, segment and sub-segment across geographies. The participants who typically take part in such a process include, but are not limited to: Industry participants: CEOs, VPs, business development managers, market intelligence managers and national sales managers Outside experts: investment bankers, valuation experts, research analysts and key opinion leaders specializing in the petrochemical industry Expert Panel Validation GlobalData uses a panel of experts to cross-verify research and forecast methodologies, and drive its analytical content. The GlobalData expert panel comprises marketing managers, product specialists, international sales managers from petrochemical companies; academics from research universities and consultants from professional services companies. 53

16 Appendix 7.4 Disclaimer All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher, GlobalData. 54