The challenges and opportunities for WiMAX

Transcription

1 The challenges and opportunities for WiMAX - Observation from standard evolution and LTE vs WiMAX battles Jay Huang, Ph.D. Industrial Technology Research Institute Information & Communications Research Labs. Digital Video & Optical Communications Tech. Div. jay.huang@itri.org.tw

2 Media keep saying No strong business model for 4G? What is the challenge for 4G? LTE will kill WiMAX Time for 4G reality check? What is technology enabler for 4G? Technology comparison between WiMAX and LTE? No killer application for 4G What is the opportunities for 4G? You wondering Am I in the right track? WiMAX? LTE? Which direction your organization should go? Vision for WiMAX & LTE opportunities 2

3 Outline Wireless evolution review Will LTE kill WiMAX? Observation from history of standard evolution Observation from standard viewpoint for LTE & WiMAX My view about LTE vs WiMAX battle WiMAX opportunities 3.5G challenge Current 4G market status IPAD effect - Device decouple multimedia and voice WiMAX opportunities WiMAX/4G Challenges Conclusion Q&A 3

4 Wireless evolution review 4

5 Wireless evolution history review - use 3GPP as an example TDMA for voice oriented CDMA for Hybrid voice + packet OFDMA for All IP GSM 1990 GPRS 1997 EDGE 1999 UMTS R99 UMTS R4 UMTS R5 UMTS R6 UMTS R7 UMTS R8 (LTE) UMTS R9 (LTE) UMTS R10 (LTE-A) 2G, Digital Voice / Signaling, SMS, 2.4/4.8/9.6 kbps 2.5G, Packet Core, 56 kbps to 114 kbps, Internet/ 3G, Improved Coding / Modulation, 236 kbps to 473 kbps WCDMA, Circuit & Packet Cores, DL 384 kbps, UL 128 kbps No data rate change from R99, efficient Softswitch core Shift to all IP IMS, HSDPA, Peak DL to MHz MBMS, HSUPA, Peak UL to MHz HSPA+, MIMO, Peak UL 22 Mbps, Peak DL 42 Mbps Basic Data service Peak DL 173Mbps UL 20Mhz Commercial Telephony + basic MBMS Target DL 1Gbps UL 500Mbps with 100MHz aggregated BW 5

6 Will LTE kill WiMAX? - Observation from history of standard evolution 6

7 Famous technology debate 1994 : TDMA vs CDMA 2004 : WCDMA vs OFDMA Pro (CDMA) - Qualcomm CDMA 3x + capacity of TDMA CDMA is easier to transition from AMPS Con (CDMA) - Ericsson CDMA BS $300,000, TDMA BS $80,000 CDMA is software expensive, economics issue prefer TDMA Problem of CDMA is interference, power balancing, and handoff requirement advanced processing Pro (OFDMA) Intel OFDMA are easier to deploy OFDMA is more superior than CDMA for data (spectrum efficiency) Con (OFDMA) Ericsson, Qualcomm In 2005, 38M WCDMA subscriber Roaming, Billing, common AAA are difficult in VoIP WCDMA + advanced signal processing can reach same performance (HSDPA) Reality check: not about technology or standard its all about user experience 1.GSM is most successful standard in the world (End user choice) 2. CDMA won 3G standard war 3. OFDMA won 4G standard war 7

8 Standard battle within same generation Q Statistics *GSMA market info. ~ m ~ m For Mobile Broadband Sector: CDMA2000 EVDO path to grab early 3G operators and emerging market and gain about 30 ~ 40% market share; HSPA path to dominate in 3G mature market & late deployment market share Will HSPA kill EVDO? 8

9 Will LTE kill WiMAX? - Observation from standard viewpoint for LTE & WiMAX 9

10 Technology enabler for WiMAX & LTE OFDMA MIMO Smart Antennas All IP Networking OFDMA enable spectrum efficiency lower cost per bit MIMO/smart antenna enable system capacity and receiver efficiency (Coverage, etc) lower cost per bit & increase UL All IP networking enable simplest network & E2E application lower cost per bit & service convergence 10

11 Architecture comparison IMS WiMAX LTE IMS CSN AAA HA HSS PDN SAE GW CAP-C FA/Router MME Serv. SAE GW Authenticator Paging Controller Local mobility Authenticator Paging Controller Local mobility Access Point Handover Control RRM ARQ/MAC/PHY L2 Ciphering Classification/ ROHC OFDM MIMO Smart Antennas Handover Control RRM ARQ/MAC/PHY E-Node B L2 Ciphering ROHC OFDM + SC-FDMA MIMO Smart Antennas 11

12 Device battery comparison Parameter Down e Up Down LTE Up Common Up/Down Multiplex TDD FDD & TDD Deployment Bands 2.6, 3.5, etc 0.9, 2.1, 2.6, Different Physical Layer OFDMA OFDMA DFT - SOFDM Scaleable? Primary Technologies Antenna Configs Mobility Approach Transport Application Support 1.25 to 20 FFT, IFFT, QPSK -64QAM MIMO, Switched Beam, SDMA, Diversity IETF based..mip IP IMS to 20 FFT, IFFT, QPSK -64QAM MIMO, Switched Beam, SDMA, Diversity 3GPP IP IMS+ 12

13 Sector Throughput - NGMN Case 3 LTE Downlink MIMO 4x WiMAX HSPA+ HSPA Downlink MIMO 2x Avg Sector Throughput Downlink 1x1 Carrier BW (MHz) FDD Carrier BW (MHz) Uplink No MIMO/64QAM Source: NAT, Rysavy Research, CDG-QCOM 13

14 Legacy system comparison LTE is a legacy system design Inter-System HO WiMAX is a stand alone system Heterogeneous HO Inter-Technology HO ISHO WCDMA LTE LTE HSPA WCDMA ITHO WiMAX CDMA2000 WiMAX GSM GSM GSM WiFi WiFi LTE try to leverage the big success of GSM; however its design will increase device cost and resulting in slowing eco-system development 14

15 Will LTE kill WiMAX? - My view about LTE vs WiMAX 15

16 LTE vs WiMAX LTE & WiMAX will co-exist LTE target for 3GPP & 3GPP2 mobile operators WiMAX target for new entrants & alternative business models History tells us Competition drives innovation in other fields 16

17 Device time is the key for LTE take-off Estimated device not ready before 2013 (cost & IOT consideration) Device & inter operability are keys for LTE take off TD-LTE (2010)=WiMAX(2007) FDD-LTE (2009)=WiMAX(2007) 17

18 Operator choice? In reality... Availability and regulations of Spectrum spectrum? TDD, FDD? Business objectives, Incumbency, Time-tomarket, Competitive Business environment Model Mobility? Devices? Current network capable of serving data forecasts for next 2+ State of Network years? Not about which performs better Operator/ Network Size Not about which will win Tier 1 LTE/TD LTE Tier 2 WiMAX Tier 3 Fixed Nomadic Full Mobility Mobility 18

19 WiMAX Opportunities - 3.5G current challenge 19

20 Operator data analysis Strong Demand for Mobile Broadband Most operators reports 6-14X (2007) 20-50X(2008) increase in data usage Attractiveness of Flat rate data tariffs WWW going mobile (Browser/Sites) Multimedia devices reaching mass market Mobile Data Exponential Growth DL 3.5G networks will struggle with mass market mobile data adoption UL Backhaul, RNC sized up for Voice / Low datarates User experience / Cell shrinkage with capacity take up Costly Cell splitting & Core/Trans. upgrade But data revenue is only growing % year on year Future Focus : Lower Cost per Bit and UL throughput improvement 20

21 AT&T suffering due to i-phone usage & 3.5G capacity limitation 21

22 Smart devices need 4G AT &T 3.5G NW suffer on the i-phone effect NYC 3.5G crash by capacity loading (since 2009 Christmas season) WiMAX is the best commercial NW for smart phone/device & it s application before 2013 in US Clearwire launches WiMAX- WiFi hotspot for ipad Expect i-phone on WiMAX late

23 WiMAX Opportunities - Current WiMAX market status 23

24 WiMAX market status summary 593 WiMAX Deployments in 149 Countries (June 10 Statistics) 24

25 Business model highlight Wireless broadband such as Wateen, Pakistan to provide FMC service including Home Broadband (IPTV), Home voice and Mobility later Mobile broadband service such as Clearwire USA, UQ Japan to offer flat rates, embedded chipsets notebook to drive mobile data and new consumer device later 25

26 Clearwire Q results Mature Market Subscribers on Q1 2010: (~ 1m) Revenue: $106.7 million ARPU ~100 USD It added 283,000 new subscribers, which included 111,000 wholesale subscribers (~40%) who were signed up through its partner roughly 52,300 (18%) of the wholesale customers, are using dual-mode devices that switch between Clearwire s 4G network and Sprint s 3G/EVDO network (Dual mode dongle/ HTC or Samsung Smartphone) WiMAX uptake rate was better than analysis forecast 26

27 Clearwire Q results- Mature Market Subscribers on Q2 2010: 1.7m Revenue: $122.5 million million ARPU ~72 USD Clearwire addition of 722,000 total net new subscribers, including 127,000 (~18%) retail additions and 595,000 (~82%) wholesale additions Clearwire Launches 4G Hotspot for Apple's iphone, ipad Clearwire expect breaking 3 million by the end of Why adding so many subscriber on wholesale? Sprint & Comcast 27

28 HTC EVO 4G sets sales records HTC EVO 4G sets new sales records for Sprint, June 7, :08 AM The total number of HTC EVO 4G devices sold on launch day was three times the number of Samsung Instinct and Palm Pre devices sold over their first three days on the market combined (one day sales EVO ~300,000 units) More smart devices coming out will accelerate the WiMAX subscribers uptake in mature market such as US or Japan 28

29 Clear subscriber forecast vs real number Estimated achieve Rate > 65% Achieved rate 52% Estimated >3m Q k Q k Q k Q1 10 Note that the wholesale & retail % changing dramatically Business model for mature market is changing 29

30 Yota - Focus on customer not technology 30

31 Yota successful factors Constrain with low internet penetration % plus low APRU only WiMAX eco system can support its business model now 31

32 WiMAX Opportunities - ipad effect 32

33 ipad change the business model decouple multimedia & voice CNET predicts 8 ~ 10 million ipads to be shipped in 2010 (2.5 million of those expected in just the first 3 months) ipad s new business model will challenge LTE group basic assumption handheld device is the only personal multimedia device (to leverage GSM big success & user basis) ipad also need bandwidth like iphone WiMAX might be only mobile broadband solution with affortable price & mature ecosystem to relieve i-phone & i-pad 33

34 WiMAX Opportunities 34

35 Today, two thirds of the world is still unconnected to Internet. (Emerging market) WiMAX opportunities - Connect the Unconnected Rapidly with Affordable Price Or underserved. (Vertical market) 35

36 Matural & emerging market Source: ITU, Ovum, IMF Country Japan Australia Singapore Hong Kong New Zealand South Korea Taiwan Malaysia Thailand China Indonesia Philippines India Vietnam GDP per capita 2007 $45,633 $35,521 $35,510 $31,376 $29,239 $19,718 $16,496 $6,465 $3,982 $2,524 $1,808 $1,723 $1,011 $720 Mobile Penetration % 78.5% 127.9% 105.5% 138.3% 90.8% 99.1% 90.0% 82.7% 40.0% 41.6% 62.0% 18.6% 42.0% Fixed Line BB Penetration % 68.6% 42.0% 41.7% 54.1% 42.9% 58.9% 16.5% 10.8% 28.0% 6.7% 3.3% 3.7% 9.7% Wireless Broadband Penetration % 22.1% 19.9% 16.1% 26.1% 30.6% 20.9% 5.2% 0.9% 5.0% 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 1.5% Mobile ARPU 4Q 07 $48.2 $43.8 $40.0 $44.8 $23.8 $43.2 $23.3 $22.1 $13.2 $8.4 $8.8 $12.9 $7.1 $8.6 Which wireless broadband technology is best fit for Emerging Market? WiMAX or LTE? 36

37 4G services for vertical markets Utilities Remote plant monitoring, Consumer meter reading, Insurances Vehicle tracking Local Government Highway agencies Security camera video feed, Traffic light monitoring/configuration, Road use billing Broadcasting HQ Remote video broadcasting Medical Patient monitoring, Remote diagnostics, Live video feed to/from operating theatre Car manufacturer GPS On-board internet access, Traffic reporting, Live maps 37

38 WiMAX/4G challenge 38

39 Operators most challenge issues Next generation NW design must able to deal with revenues/traffics decoupling 39

40 Lesson taken from LTE-A Based on LTE LTE-Advanced LTE Rel8 Improved spectrum flexibility Wider bandwidth Spectrum aggregation 100 MHz 10 MHz 20 MHz Multi-antenna solutions enodeb Advanced repeaters and relays L1 repeaters L3 relays ( self-backhauling ) Rpt Indoor coverage & backhaul is the key challenge for 4G 40

41 4G/WiMAX Challenge Deploy scenario will change 41

42 Conclusion 42

43 Conclusion Technology-wise WiMAX and LTE has high degree of similarity WiMAX will keep rolling in emerging market & vertical market due to low cost ecosystem LTE will gain momentum in mature market and traditional telecom sector Indoor and backhaul are key issues for 4G 43

44 Q&A 44