2 (FTTH) FTTH JEL L96, H Tel&Fax:

Transcription

1 + 2 2 (FTTH) ADSL FTTH NTT FTTH JEL L96, H Tel&Fax: ida@econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp 1

2 I Fiber to the Home(FTTH)Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line(ADSL) FTTH 4 ADSL CATV FTTH ADSL 565(72.3%) 1,027(75.3%) 1,333(71.5%) 1,448(64.8%) CATV 195(25.0%) 248(18.1%) 287(15.4%) 323(14.4%) FTTH 21(2.6%) 89(6.6%) 243(13.1%) 464(20.8%) 2 () 3 1 Ida(2006a,b) 2 ADSL FTTH NTT ADSL NTT 38%(2002 ) 39%(2005 )FTTH NTT 45%(2002 ) 60%(2005 )ADSL FTTH NTT 3 IT(Information Technology) (OECD, 2001, Understanding the Digital Divide) Norris(2001) Wong(2002) ADSL 5 FTTH 5 FTTH ( 2

3 2002 FTTH ADSL CATV FTTH ADSL FTTH Ida and Kuroda(2006) 4 2 FTTH FTTH ADSL FTTH NTT (RP) (Conditional Logit, CL)(Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives, IIA) (Mixed Logit, ML) FTTH FTTH NTT NTT ADSL NTT FTTH 2400 ADSL NTT (Revealed Preference Method, RPM)Madden et al.(1999) Eisner and Waldon(2001) Kridel et al.(2001) Dufy-Deno(2003) Ida and Kuroda(2006) (2004)(Stated Preference Method, SPM) Madden and Simpson(1997) Savage and Waldman (2005) Ida and Sato(2004) Ida, Kinoshita, and Sato(2006) (2004)(2005) 5 (Shapiro and Varian 1999 Witt 1999 Liebowitz and Margolis 2002 ) NTT ADSL FTTH ADSL NTT FTTH 3

4 II FTTH III FTTH NTT IV. FTTH FTTH 20% FTTH 2361 FTTH ADSL63% FTTH21% CATV17%ADSL 39% NTT 34% Web84% IP 40% 35%FTTH NTT 52% 11% Web85% IP 24% 40% 4

5 19% 9% Web83% IP 6% 24% 2 3 ISP IP 1(e) 6 IP (Independent and Identical Distribution, IID) CL CL IID IIA Nested Logit, NLNL CL Ben-Akiva, Bolduc, and Walker 2001 IIA ML 6 ML (McFadden and Train 2000) ML CL Train 2003, Louviere et al. 2000CL L ni n i V ni J 6 ML Random Parameter Error Components (Revelt and Train 1998, Brownstone and Train 1999) 5

6 L ni ( ) = exp(v ni ( )) / J j=1 exp(v nj ( )) ML f ( ) J P ni = exp(v ni ( )) / exp(v nj ( )) j=1 f ( )d ML i m E m nixnj = 1 P m L ni ( ) f ( )d ni Linear-in-Parameter j x ni z ni μ ni IID U ni = ' x ni + μ ' z ni + ni ML f ( ) r R f ( ) r r L ni ( ) ˆ r Pni = 1/ R Lni ( ) P ni (Simulated Log Likelihood, SLL) d ni SLL= R r= 1 N J n=1 j= 1 d ni ln Pˆ ML (Revelt and Train 2000) n y n h( y n ) = nj P(y n ) f ( ) P(y n ) f ( )d 6

7 ML (Maximum Simulated Likelihood) (i)ftth (ii)adsl (iii)catv ML (1)(2) ()(3)(4)IP (5) (6) OLS 0.5 (ADSL)t t FTTH ( 1%)ADSL (5%) IP (1%) (10%) (1%) IP (FTTH)(5%) IP (ADSL)(10%) (ADSL)(10%) (Halton 1960, Bhat 2001, Train 2003) (3)-(6)ADSL FTTH CATV CATV 7

8 2.4 5 ML FTTH FTTH -1.3 ADSL 0.3 CATV 0.8 ADSL ADSL -0.4 FTTH 0.5 CATV 0.6 CATV CATV -1.7 FTTH 0.5 ADSL 0.3 FTTH CATV ADSL ADSL FTTH CATV (2004) Ida and Kuroda(2006) FTTH FTTH 9 t 6 FTTH 9%FTTH 7%FTTH 5% FTTH FTTH FTTH FTTH 9 8

9 ML IP 1 FTTH IP ADSL IP FTTH IP ADSL FTTH ADSL FTTH ADSL 2 III. FTTH FTTH FTTH FTTH IP 75% 050-IP 0ABJ-IP 9

10 FTTH 7 FTTH 8 (48%) FTTH ADSL ADSL FTTH (56%) NTT FTTH ADSL FTTH NTT 11 FTTH NTT ADSL FTTH ADSL FTTH 12 ISDN (NB) FTTH (FTTH 30%)(59%) NTT FTTH FTTH NTT FTTH NTT ML 13 Train 2003, pp n j t U njt = V njt + njt V IID j Vnjt = Ynj ( t 1) + Xnjt t j Y njt = 1 Y njt = 0 X (d)FTTH 1 ADSL FTTH 13 Adamowicz(1994) Erden(1996)Y njt 10

11 , 14 / FTTH IP 2.1 (1)NTT FTTH (2) FTTH (3) FTTH (1)(2) (3)(4)IP (5)(6) 15 ()(7)FTTH 3 NTT ADSL( 1) NTT ADSL NB( 2) ADSL( 3) OLS t t 5% 1% 1 2 1% 3 5% 2 10% (NTT ADSL) NTT ADSL NTT FTTH 14 > 0 < 0 15 (3)-(6) NTT FTTH 11

12 NTT ADSL NTT FTTH (NTT ADSL NB) NTT ADSL NB NTT FTTH NTT ADSL NB NTT FTTH ( ADSL)() ADSL NTT FTTH ADSL NTT FTTH 1616 NTT ADSL NB NTT FTTH ADSL NTT FTTH 2.2 ML ADSL FTTH (ida 2006a,b)ADSL FTTH ADSL FTTH NTT NTT ADSL FTTH NTT NTT 17 IV. 16 (10%)

13 2 FTTH FTTH NTT NTT FTTH FTTH NTT NTT 2 NTT (2005) IP 57.2: (2004) InfoCom Review 35: (2004) InfoCom Review 34: Adamowitcz, W. (1994) "Habit Formation and Variety Seeking in a Discrete Choice Model of Recreation Demand," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 19: Ben-Akiva, M., D. Bolduc, and J. Walker (2001) "Specification, Estimation and Identification of the Logit Kernel (or Continuous Mixed Logit) Model," Working Paper, Department of Civil Engineering, MIT. Bhat, C. (2001) "Quasi-random Maximum Simulated Likelihood Estimation of the 13

14 Mixed Multinomial Logit Model," Transportation Research B 35: Brownstone, D. and K.E. Train (1999) "Forecasting New Product Penetration with Flexible Substitution Patterns," Journal of Econometrics 89: Duffy-Deno, K.T. (2003) "Business Demand for Broadband Access Capacity," Journal of Regulatory Economics 24: Eisner, J. and T. Waldon (2001) "The Demand for Bandwidth: Second Telephone Lines and One-line Services," Information Economics and Policy 13: Erden, T. (1996) "A Dynamic Analysis of Market Structure Based on Panel Data," Marketing Science 15: Halton, J. (1960) "On the Efficiency of Evaluating Certain Quasi-random Sequences of Points in Evaluating Multi-dimensional Integrals," Numerische Mathematik 2: Ida, T. (2006a) "The Broadband Market in Japan," R. Taplin and M. Wakui (eds.), Japanese Telecommunications Market and Policy in Transition, Routledge: Ida, T. (2006b) "Broadband, Information Society, and National System in Japan," M. Fransman (ed.), Global Broadband Battles, Stanford University Press: Ida, T., S. Kinoshita, and M. Sato (2006) "Conjoint Analysis of Demand for IP Telephony: The Case of Japan," Applied Economics, forthcoming. Ida, T. and T. Kuroda (2006) Discrete Choice Analysis of Demand for Broadband in Japan, Journal of Regulatory Economics vol.29: Ida, T. and M. Sato (2004) "Conjoint Analysis of Consumer Preferences for Broadband Services in Japan," Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, COE21 Discussion Paper No. 32. Kridel, D.J., P.N. Rappoport, and L.D. Taylor (2001) "An Econometric Model of the Demand for Access to the Internet by Cable Modem," in D.G. Loomis and L.D. Taylor (eds.) Forecasting the Internet: Understanding the explosive Growth of Data Communications, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Liebowitz, S.J. and S.E. Margolis (2002) "Network Effects," in: M.E. Cave et al. (eds.) Handbook of Telecommunications Economics Vol.1, North-Holland: Louviere, J.J., D.A., Hensher and J.D. Swait, (2000) Stated Choice Methods, Cambridge University Press. Madden, G. and M. Simpson (1997) "Residential Broadband Subscription Demand: an 14

15 Econometric Analysis of Australian Choice Experiment Data," Applied Economics 29: Madden, G., S.G. Savage, and G. Coble-Neal (1999) "Subscriber Churn in the Australian ISP Market," Information Economics and Policy 11: McFadden, D. and K.E. Train (2000) "Mixed MNL Models of Discrete Choice Models of Discrete Response," Journal of A: lied Econometrics 15: Norris, P. (2001) Digital Divide, Cambridge University Press. Revelt, D. and K. Train (1998) "Incentives for Appliance Efficiency in a Competitive Energy Environment: Random Parameters Logit Models of Households' Choices," Review of Economics and Statistics 80: Revelt, D. and K. Train (2000) "Specific Taste Parameters and Mixed Logit," Working Paper No. E00-274, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley. Savage, S.J. and D. Waldman (2005) "Broadband Internet Access, Awareness, and Use: Analysis of United States Household Data," Telecommunications Policy 29: Shapiro, C. and H.R. Varian (1999) Information Rules: A Strategic Guide to the Network Economy, Harvard Business School Press. Train, K.E. (2003) Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation, Cambridge University Press. Witt, U. (1999) "'Lock-In' vs. 'Critical Masses'--Industrial Change under Network Externalities," International Journal of Industrial Organization 15: Wong, P-K (2002) "ICT Production and Diffusion in Asia Digital Dividends or Digital Divide?" Information Economics and Policy 14:

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