Synthesis & Prototyping

Transcription

1 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 1 Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design Synthesis & Prototyping 23rd of October 2014, Brussels Michael Rogge, Peter Gilsdorf (Amprion), Simon Krahl, Oliver Scheufeld, Andreas Moormann (FGH)

2 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 2 Agenda Synthesis & Prototyping (WP 5) I. Objectives and Overview II. Challenges III. IV. Components of Toolbox Development Outlook

3 WP5: Objectives (1/2) Toolbox Design Development of a specification for a toolbox comprising modules for forecasting, optimisation and risk-based security assessment Development of a usage concept Development of a visualisation concept Prototype Development Proof-of-concept based on a prototype with the key features Preliminary concept for link to existing TSO processes (DACF) Include proposals for the visualisation of prototype results Based on the concept developed in the framework of Toolbox Design Options for software vendors realising a commercial version in the future UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 3

4 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 4 WP5: Objectives (2/2) Development of an Integrated Toolbox Synthesis of concepts developed for forecasting, optimisation and risk-based security assessment Emphasis on those methods and concepts most appropriate and promising for usage in daily operation Description of cooperation and interdependencies between concepts Usage and Visualisation Concept Main Parts of Toolbox Design Description of the integration of the toolbox into existing platforms and processes (usage concept ) Appropriate method for the representation of huge amount of information provided by the toolbox (visualisation concept) Proof of Concept Based on Toolbox Prototype Prototype includes key functionalities Offline testing of complete toolbox based on testbook

5 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 5 WP5: Overview (1/2) Components of Synthesis & Prototyping : Toolbox Design Toolbox Synthesis Usage Concept Visualisation Concept Prototype Development Prototype Development Based on Toolbox Design Final Step to Proof Concept by Applying Tests to Prototype

6 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 6 WP5: Overview (2/2) Scheme of Information/Data Flows Forecasting Optimisation Risk-Based Security Assessment Prototype Development Exchange of Information between Optimisation and Risk- Based Assessment Required

7 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 7 Agenda I. Objectives and overview II. III. IV. Challenges Components of toolbox development Outlook

8 WP5: Challenges (1/2) Synthesis Identification of TSO Requirements and Expectations What do TSOs need in order to cope with challenges arising from a rapidly altering environment? Alignment with Concepts Developed for Forecasting, Optimisation and Risk-Based Security Assessment What does research propose to face TSO challenges? Definition of Data Requirements and Interdependencies of Concepts Which input data is required for modules developed as part of new concepts for forecasting, optimisation and risk-based security assessment? How do these modules interact (data exchange etc.)? What is the sequence of the different modules? What is the computation required and does it fit to the time restrictions given by the process? UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 8

9 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 9 WP5: Challenges (2/2) Usage Concept How can the required data be accessed in different TSO environments? What are the differences among TSOs in terms of data mining/handling and process setup/execution? Can the results be integrated in the existing processes? Visualisation Concept How to display probabilistic findings? How to lead operators to these results and to gain their acceptance? How can the scientific state-of-the-art visualisation concepts be aligned with best practice TSO concepts? Prototype Development What is the most appropriate approach for the coordination of inputs and results? How to reflect and consider different TSO cultures?

10 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 10 Agenda I. Objectives and overview II. III. IV. Challenges Components of toolbox development Outlook

11 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 11 WP5: Synthesis (Objectives) Review of Concepts Developed for Forecasting, Optimisation and Risk-Based Security Assessment Definition of modules and functionalities Inquiry on Requirements and Expectations by TSOs Analysis of existing processes (DACF) Alignment of Concepts and Expectations Selection of modules and functionalities to be included in toolbox Identification of interface and data exchange between modules and functionalities Focus on toolbox prototype Definition of Data Requirements Distinction between required and currently available data

12 WP5: Synthesis (Results) Toolbox requirements (Deliverable D5.1) Requirements for network forecasting, system optimisation and risk-based security assessment Description of preliminary concepts Enquiry on TSO expectations and requirements Alignment of modules/functionalities to be developed based on preliminary concepts and requirements High level description of interfaces and dependencies of modules Focus on data exchange and potential sequence UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 12

13 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 13 WP5: Synthesis (1/5) Prototype Modules for Forecasting Uncertainty of active and reactive load forecast Uncertainty of active infeed forecast Forecast of critical system states Mining and Processing of Historical Data to be Done Off-Line Input Data (up to date) DACF datasets Point forecasts Weather forecast Geographical information Data processing Estimation of forecast errors Merging of data Uncertainty of relevant parameters Active/reactive load Renewable/conventional infeed Boundary flows/exchange Enhanced Probabilistic Forecasting/Load-Flow Set of System-Use-Case (SUC) samples Input Data (historical) DACF datasets Measurements (Snapshot data) Geographical information Data processing Determination of dependencies Training of AI-modules Critical System States Identification of SUCs causing ciritical system states Stochastic parameters Mean Values Covariance Matrix

14 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 14 WP5: Synthesis (2/5) Prototype Modules for Optimisation Input Data (up to date) Information on available remedial measures Restrictions Critical System States Identification of SUCs causing critical system states Input Data (historical) Black list of switching states Restrictions Short-term and real-time OPF Application in/close to real-time Optimisation for transm. system operation Operational Planning tool Application with or w/o consideration of uncertainties Deduction of robust switching states (RSS) Offline Module Robust switching states Optimised System States with remedial measures Redispatch Settings of compensation devices, HVDC terminals, PSTs Topology optimisation Optimised System States with remedial measures Redispatch Settings of compensation devices, HVDC terminals, PSTs Topology optimisation incl. RSS

15 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 15 WP5: Synthesis (3/5) Prototype Modules for Risk-Based Security Assessment Stochastic parameters Input Data (up to date) Mean Values Covariance Matrix Information on available remedial measures Restrictions Optimised System States with remedial measures Redispatch Settings of compensation devices, HVDC terminals, PSTs Topology optimisation incl. RSS Security Margins for circuit capacities Tightening of circuit capacities due to uncertainties Risk assessment of cascading events Simulation of system states assessing of cascading Severity function Quantification of the risk of cascading events using piecewise linear severity function

16 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 16 WP5: Synthesis (4/5) Overview and Links of Toolbox Prototype Modules External input data Probabilistic Forecasting Critical System States External input data Severity Function External input data Optimisation Framework Security Margins for Circuit Capacities System States with Remedial Measures External input data Risk Assessment of Cascading Events Uncertainty of Circuit Flows

17 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 17 WP5: Synthesis (5/5) Sequence and Timeframe of Prototype Modules Historical Data Data Preparation Data Pre-Processing Robust Switching States Forecasting Optimisation Risk based security assessment Forecasting Modules Severity Function Security Margins OPF Risk Assessment Uncertainty of Circuit Flows Operator s display Required Computational Time t-1 t

18 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 18 WP5: Usage Concept Analysis of Existing TSO Procedures (DACF, IDCF etc.) Development of Interfaces Historical Data Data Preparation Data Pre-Processing Robust Switching States Forecasting Optimisation Risk based security assessment Forecasting Modules Severity Function Security Margins OPF Risk Assessment Uncertainty of Circuit Flows Operator s display t-1 Current TSO Process t Measures

19 WP5: Visualisation Concept Identification of Outputs to be Visualised on Display All outputs and results are available for operators Historical Data Data Data Pre-Processing Robust Switching States Forecasting Optimisation Preparation Risk based security assessment Forecasting Modules Severity Function Security Margins OPF Risk Assessment Uncertainty of Circuit Flows Operator s display t-1 Current TSO Process t Measures UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 19

20 WP5: Prototype Development Setup of Toolbox Prototype One central server Bidirectional communication between server and users (TSOs) No data exchange between users (TSOs) required Toolbox- Prototype TSO A TSO B TSO C TSO n UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 20

21 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 21 Agenda I. Objectives and overview II. III. IV. Challenges Components of toolbox development Outlook

22 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 22 WP5: Next Steps (1/2) Toolbox Design Definition of Interfaces between Toolbox Modules Data exchange and processing of results used as input data for subsequent modules Description of Interfaces with Current TSOs Processes Identification of appropriate spots within processes (DACF, IDCF etc.) to extract data and to add toolbox results Finalisation of Data Requirements Distinction between available and required data Statement on potential improvement of modules including additional data Concept for Data Mining/Gathering Format of available data and required data converters Development of Visualisation Concepts for Displaying Probabilistic Results

23 WP5: Next Steps (2/2) Toolbox Prototyping Finalisation of the Implementation of Optimisation Modules With and Without the Consideration of Uncertainties Testing Prototype Modules with Exemplary DACF-datasets Starting with deterministic approaches Continuing with the consideration of probabilistic forecasts Concluding with the incorporation of risk-based security assessment Implementation of Prototype Infrastructure Setting up of central server and users hardware Preparation of User s Manual Coordination With Demonstration & Testing Preparation of data for test-cases Testing procedure UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 23

24 UMBRELLA Workshop on System State Modelling and Toolbox Design, 23 rd of October 2014, Brussels 24 Thank you very much for your attention! Questions? Comments? Dipl.-Ing. Oliver Scheufeld System Studies Roermonder Straße Aachen, Germany Phone: +49 (0) This research work has been carried out within the scope of the project UMBRELLA, supported under the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union, grant agreement