Electricity for the 21 st Century. Power System

Transcription

1 Electricity for the 21 st Century Creating a Smart, Efficient i Power System Kurt Yeager

2 Transforming Society The vast networks of electrification are the greatest engineering achievement of the 20th century US U.S. National lacademy of fengineering i 2 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

3 GOAL The perfect power system will ensure absolute and universal availability of energy in the quantity and quality necessary to meet every consumer s needs. It is a system that never fails the consumer. Bob Galvin Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

4 Key Issue to be Resolved Will the bulk electricity system evolve to become the critical infrastructure supporting the digital society of the 21st century, or be left behind as an industrial relic of the 20th century? 4 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

5 Breaking the Limits on Electricity Value Performance Networked digital economy Transformation Electric Light Refrigeration Investment 5 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

6 The Transformed Electricity Grid for the 21 st Century Electronically control the power system Integrate electricity & communications Transform meter into a two-way consumer services gateway Incorporate CHP & Distributed Resources Reintroduce Direct Current (DC) Circuits/Microgrids Enable smart, efficient end uses 6 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

7 Key Findings The electricity industry is transitioning to a demanddriven, dynamic-priced business Utility economics are driving AMI & DR Consumer-convenient killer applications are emerging and new players are entering Both the commercial and residential markets will become web-enabled and consumer controlled Widespread real-time energy management will significantly improve efficiency and reliability 7 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

8 Ubiquitous customer pull The combination of ubiquitous low-cost communications (wireless and wired), standardization of Internet Protocols (IPs), low-cost mesh sensors and modules will make precise, real-time and on-demand electricity management a low-cost increment to investments already being made to serve other needs. Widespread d adoption of these technologies for energy management will create a customer pull toward investment in technologies to upgrade the existing electric grid, making it capable of responding in real-time to shifts in demand. 8 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

9 New Technology Will Change Electricity Consumption and Management CEO Expected Innovations This Decade Internet Billing & Demand Measurement End-User Demand Response Systems Plug-In Hybrids Smart End-Use Sensors Microgrids Distributed Storage Percent 9 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

10 Conceptual Framework for Alternatives SMART Technology Solutions Cen ntralized Grid Arch itecture Intelligent controls and power management added to present power system Hardened power systems based on present centralized models Cellular configurations - distributed generation & microgrids, smart interconnections ti between cells Integration of distributed generation & microgrids with redundancy rid Archit tecture Distr ributed G 10 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved. HARD Infrastructure Solutions

11 Distributed Power Systems System Controller Communication with Building Resource other controllers Automation Manager Sensor Network Communication Architecture Local Thermal Storage Local Generation Local Electric Storage District Heating Interface Electronics Remote Generation/Grid Electric and Thermal Loads 11 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

12 Many new Entrants and Type of Players G F ENERGY LLC ENERGY LLC Network system developers and integrators Financial Companies and Venture Capital Firms Building and home developers Communications Companies Real time sensors and network infrastructure and asset management companies BOTs Architects, Specifiers and Constructors ESCOs and Facility Managers Residential and Commercial Building Automation Energy metering and management system/portal providers HVAC/appliance companies Distributed Generation and Energy Storage/Power Quality Companies 12 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

13 Critical Nodes of Innovation Power Electronic Controls 7 Integrated Communications 7 Sensors 6 Smart Appliances & Devices 6 Building Systems 5 Computational Ability 5 Distributed Generation 4 Energy Storage 3 Development Stage 13 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

14 Reaching the Tipping Point (~ 2012) Building intelligence in over half of new commercial building Home automation systems are a staple offering Active DR programs are widely used > 40% of aggregate load is AMI served Grid interoperability is broadly (85%) activated t 14 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

15 New Business Opportunities Maturity Impact Timing Turnkey Smart Buildings Web-enabled Energy Systems s Residential DR Turnkey Perfect Power Retailing Turnkey AMI Commercial Perfect Power Retailing Regional Smart Grid Funds Enhanced Distribution Reliability Zones Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

16 Projected Benefits and Investments by Sector G F ENERGY LLC ENERGY LLC 5 Estimated Annual Benefits ($B, in 2015) Commercial Retrofits Smart Grid Investments 1 Residential Residential New Retrofits Storage, DG, Microgrids AMI investments Commercial New Estimated 10 year Investment Levels ($B) 16 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

17 Smart Building Potential Commercial Sector G F ENERGY LLC ENERGY LLC New entrants believe that smarter buildings will open the door to new facility management business models $/ft2 Energy savings/ yr Productivity Improvement /yr Increase in chargeable rent/yr Sample range (e.g., retrofit vs, new) One time cost of smarting a building Adapted from Paul Erlich 17 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

18 Value of the 21 st Century Transformation Increasing the functionality and value of electricity i through h consumer benefits that far outweigh the cost Transformed power system security & functionality Increased U.S. productivity & GDP growth rates Substantially improved energy efficiency & electricity intensity Accelerated reduction in carbon emissions Reduced cost of infrastructure upgrades & expansion 18 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

19 Constraints to Deployment Consumer Knowledge & Behavior Dysfunctional Building Design & Construction Processes Utility and Regulatory Resistance New Entrant t Barriers CONCLUSION These constraints will be overcome by cost and quality pressures. 19 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

20 Dealing with Utility Constraints Type of Utility Resistance To Demand Response (which is seen as a threat against revenues) To Distributed Generation (DG) To AMI and smart grid investments Potential Fixes Increase the fixed component of distribution rates Allow utilities to earn an incentive per kw of deployed DR capacity. Could be a fixed, indexed or variable incentive. Most useful to jump start DR. Permit utilities to rate base all their DR related capital and program costs in the rate base and earn a return premium for high benefit DR Have utilities negotiate special DR rates Set up a mechanism to share between DR customers and utilities the DR savings that can be attributed to deferral of new distribution investments. Use variable or performance indexed standby rates Better monitor DG unit performance to avoid unfair penalties and improve coordination between DG operators and utilities/network operators Develop DG RFPs that are the result of collaborative efforts (e.g., somewhat inspired after the recent targeted DR RFP issued by Con Ed) Promote joint utility third party development of DG units, especially for adjacent sites (and microgrids). Offer return premiums for qualified investments Mandate higher grid reliability and performance standards Set special delivery surcharges if benefits flow to certain parts of a network service area aea where eeope operation improvements e are ae necessary Award Federal or state loan guarantees to support smart grid investments. 20 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

21 Results PHASE I of the Galvin Electricity Initiative established an architectural foundation for the Perfect Power System. PHASE II developed a three dimensional blueprint for building the system on this foundation. Technical - Ensure configurations are technically viable with complete engineering assessments and blueprints Commercial looking through the lens of market viability, define business templates & form consortia of key implementation players Operational Perfect the human dimension with quality management procedures & training programs PHASE III is commercially implementing the distributed utility path to the perfect power system using limit breaking innovative technology COMMUNICATE - EDUCATE 21 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.

22 A Message of Enduring Truth Often, the counter-intuitive leads us to the solution... I am not concerned about being the minority... Things don t get changed unless the leaders of the minority view take charge. Bob Galvin 22 Copyright The Galvin Project. All rights reserved.