Optical network futures Taking the carrier pulse

Transcription

1 Optical network futures Taking the carrier pulse A KNect365 & Ovum survey of 60 communications service providers on optical network deployment plans and progress Ian Redpath, Principal Analyst, Service Provider Technology ian.redpath@ovum.com TE

2 Survey objectives Where are communications services providers with their high speed rollouts? Where are communications service providers with advanced ROADM capabilities rollouts? Where are communications service providers with advanced NFV plans? Uncover any market inhibitors or challenges The optical food-chain view is important 2 Ovum TMT intelligence informa

3 Optical network futures: Taking the carrier pulse Survey conducted in 2Q16 60 respondents Geographic breakdown Europe MEA Asia Pacific Americas Respondents Americas 13% Asia Pacific 22% Middle East & Africa 25% Europe 40% Europe Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific Americas 3 Ovum TMT intelligence informa

4 Traffic planning challenges Which traffic category causes the greatest challenge for optical network planning? Today s mobile network growth Broadband access growth Enterprise-Cloud services growth Planning for 5G and IoT Unforecasted-event based traffic spikes Wholesale traffic growth All of the above together Visibility is difficult 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% All of the above is the hands down winner Cloud not yet having a big impact for respondents 4 Ovum TMT intelligence informa

5 Measuring 100G growth What is the rate of growth in metro 100G circuit deployments in your network over the last year? Up to 10% 10%-20% 20%-30% 30%-40% 40%-50% Greater than 50% Have not yet deployed or do not have visibility 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 100G growing at a solid clip 5 Ovum TMT intelligence informa

6 200G Beginnings When do you expect to deploy a 200G 16QAM solution in your network? Already have Undecided or Do not intend to deploy a 200G solution. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 200G definitely building momentum 6 Ovum TMT intelligence informa

7 400G When to you expect to deploy a 400G single carrier solution in your network? Already have Undecided or Do not intend to deploy a 400G solution 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 400G is a little further out 7 Ovum TMT intelligence informa

8 Flexible spectrum When do you plan to operationalize flexible spectrum functionality in your network? Already have Undecided or Do not intend to 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Early adopters have started but a large camp of undecided 8 Ovum TMT intelligence informa

9 Purpose built data center interconnect Do you see the purpose built DCI equipment having a place in your network? No Yes and widespread adoption could be possible Yes but very limited to support custom customer-driven situations 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Strong positive sentiment 9 Ovum TMT intelligence informa

10 DCI deployments When do you see beginning to deploy purpose built DCI equipment? No place in our network for this equipment Undecided 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Respondents split between soon and undecided 10 Ovum TMT intelligence informa

11 NFV Does your organization have a firm plan to migrate to an NFV environment? No Yes but to date, limited in scope Yes for network wide adoption Undecided 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Respondents approximately evenly split between positive and undecided 11 Ovum TMT intelligence informa

12 NFV early use cases What portions of your network do you envision being virtualized first? No plan Broadband access RAN CPE for enterprise services Optical Network Switching and routing infrastructure 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Respondents see value in a new paradigm at the premises 12 Ovum TMT intelligence informa

13 Conclusions Technology diffusion and adoption always takes time 100G on a strong growth curve worldwide 200G beginning 400G still a future Flexible spectrum, purpose built DCI and NFV Viewed positively But some respondents still thinking it through 13 Ovum TMT intelligence informa

14 Appendix slides 14 Ovum TMT intelligence informa

15 Appendix Methodology An on-line survey of 60 communications services providers on current and pending optical network technologies. Further reading Data Center Market Watch: Tides: Rising for ICP optical networks, ebbing for CSP DCs & connecting DCs via Marea, the tide TE (July 2016) Global Data Center Analyzer: 2Q16, TE (May 2016) Market Share Spreadsheet & Analysis: 4Q15 and 2015 Optical Components,TE (March 2016) Market Share Spreadsheet: 4Q15 Data Center Interconnect (DCI),TE (March 2016) Intra Data Center Optical Transceiver Forecast, TE (January 2016) 100G Transceiver Opportunities in Intra Data Center Interconnect, TE (January 2016) Optical Networks Forecast Report: , TE (January 2016) Data Center Interconnect Forecast: , TE (January 2016) Author Ian Redpath, Principal Analyst, Service Provider Technology, Ovum Consulting We hope that this analysis will help you make informed and imaginative business decisions. If you have further requirements, Ovum s consulting team may be able to help you. For more information about Ovum s consulting capabilities, please contact us directly at consulting@ovum.com. 15 Ovum TMT intelligence informa

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