NEXT-GENERATION WIRELESS NETWORK INVESTMENT: LTE WILL FILL THE 5G GAP FOR OPERATORS AND VENDORS
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1 analysysmason.com RESEARCH STRATEGY REPORT NEXT-GENERATION WIRELESS NETWORK INVESTMENT: LTE WILL FILL THE 5G GAP FOR OPERATORS AND VENDORS ROBERTO KOMPANY
2 About this report This report analyses the challenges that vendors and mobile network operators (MNOs) face in planning for 5G. Most of the proposed 5G use cases lack clear business drivers and MNOs are questioning the opportunities. Vendors must exploit the current opportunities to plan and execute LTE network improvements necessary to increase MNO network capacity, meet customer experience and reduce opex, while avoiding an investment slowdown by MNOs as they await 5G to mature. MNOs must not wait for 5G to begin the network improvements such as virtualisation and migration to C-RAN, as this will limit their ability to compete. The research is based on several sources: Analysys Mason s research, including forecasts of wireless traffic and devices interviews with stakeholders in operators, RAN vendors and other parties such as small-cell producers governmental and standards bodies publications on 5G Analysys Mason survey of 68 MNOs about their 5G deployment plans, drivers and barriers. KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED IN THIS REPORT What are the key inhibitors for 5G deployment and how can these be mitigated? What are the opportunities for vendors in deploying incremental LTE network improvements while planning for 5G? What are the 5G potential revenue-making opportunities for MNOs? What are the challenges for incumbent RAN vendors and the opportunities for challengers in the new modularised and disaggregated mobile network world? WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT Network vendors R&D, strategy and operator account teams supporting marketing and strategy related to mobile networks. Mobile operators network, spectrum and technology strategy teams. Regulator work groups and policy teams responsible for licensed, lightly licensed and unlicensed spectrum policy. Industry bodies associated with assigning and managing spectrum used in fixed and mobile wireless networking. Other industries interested in the future of, and investment in, 5G, such as private equities and venture capital firms. 2
3 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY BEYOND LTE: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES ESSENTIAL 5G INVESTMENTS VENDOR OPPORTUNITIES AND IMPACTS APPENDIX ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON 3
4 Executive summary 5G will drive spending on new technology and architecture when MNOs and vendors overcome adoption barriers. Meanwhile, MNOs and vendors should focus on LTE enhancements. Figure 1: Analysys Mason s survey indicates that most MNOs are likely to invest in 5G between 2020 and G addresses a range of use cases, but most MNOs are likely to delay deploying it for the next 5 years. Some use cases, such as massive machine-type communications (mmtc) and ultra-fast mobile broadband, are a natural extension of existing 4G networks, and ultra-fast mobile broadband will probably be the main business driver for the next generation of mobile networks. Other use cases, such as virtual reality and robotic surgery, are challenging to develop and deploy and will, therefore, take years to generate significant revenue. MNOs can move towards 5G and reduce operational costs by using technologies such as virtualisation, cloud RAN (C-RAN), selforganising networks and multi-input multi-output (MIMO) antennas. We recommend that: the industry must understand 5G use cases and opportunities and MNOs must develop specific roadmaps vendors have an opportunity to deliver efficiencies to MNOs and derive significant value from enhancing LTE vendors should provide multi-vendor and open-source solutions in response to increasing network disaggregation. 1 We asked 68 Tier 1 and 2 MNOs to indicate their timelines for 5G New Radio (NR) commercial deployment. 4
5 No clear 5G business need, limited LTE roll-outs and market dislocation due to shifts in architecture will defer investment in mobile networks MNOs recognise the strategic importance of 5G to their longterm plans, but most will defer major investments in the next 5 years until the technology matures and the business need for 5G becomes clearer and stronger. Figure 2: 5G investment drivers and barriers MNOs have not promoted the benefits of 5G use cases beyond that of faster mobile broadband, such as mmtc and ultra-reliable and low-latency communications. High-profile exceptions aside, most MNOs are reluctant to invest in 5G until the technology matures and opportunities become clear. Our MNO survey indicates that the main business drivers for nextgeneration wireless will be higher speed and lower cost. However, MNOs will delay deploying 5G for at least 5 years, unless and until 5G is deemed essential to driving new revenue. Mobile network architecture is becoming modularised and disaggregated, which will increase MNOs vendor choice, but will complicate procurement and operations. New entrants in the virtual-ran and virtual-epc spaces will challenge incumbent RAN vendors that used to dominate the end-to-end value chain. Figure 3: The state of the 5G business Some vendors equipment revenue has already slowed down 1 as MNOs test 5G technology and vendor options and consider 4G evolution strategies. The revenue slow down affecting the big RAN vendors in particular. 1 Ericsson and Nokia s mobile broadband hardware equipment revenue declined by 14% in 2015, although Huawei s increased by 10% in the same year. 5
6 Vendors must deliver incremental LTE improvements to prepare the way for 5G and develop strategies in response to network disaggregation Vendors must focus on delivering 5G-style use cases by upgrading existing LTE network capacity to 4.5G and supporting virtualisation of the EPC and RAN to improve MNO operations and sustain network investment. Figure 4: Vendor imperatives to increase MNO investment en route to 5G and strengthen market position Vendors have the opportunity to promote LTE network capacity improvements that will help decrease network opex, improve user experience and support 5G evolution, while also protecting their own revenue from a protracted slowdown in MNO investment. Vendors have invested in solutions to improve LTE network capacity. These solutions include the use of: the new 4 4 MIMO antennas to augment existing network capacity and improve spectrum reuse virtualisation of the RAN and EPC to reduce capex and opex costs and decrease deployment time for additional capacity small cells to increase network capacity, particularly in indoor venues or enterprise environments. There are also longer-term opportunities with 5G to address new markets such as MEC, network slicing and industrial automation. However, to make this work, significant planning and collaboration between ecosystem parties such as incumbent RAN vendors and new entrants in the virtualisation space and partnership with venue owners is required and should start now. 6
7 Recommendations 1 Vendors must focus on how 5G will meet MNO business needs and not expect them to upgrade to 5G until it delivers the use cases that address clear business requirements. 5G is not just a generational change and the use cases do not always match MNO business needs. 5G brings a mixture of new use cases as well as network efficiencies and one size no longer fits all. The industry must work out what 5G truly means and vendors should support MNOs in designing the right network to meet their business requirements. 2 To avoid investment slowdown by MNOs awaiting 5G, vendors should deliver incremental performance upgrades and provide value to extend existing LTE networks. Unlike a few trailblazer operators such as SK Telecom and Verizon, most MNOs want to maximise existing LTE investments before embarking on 5G upgrades. Incremental network upgrades such as 4 4 MIMO antennas, C- RAN and small-cell deployment will increase MNO performance KPIs, improve data monetisation and deliver increased quality of experience for the customer in the interim. 3 Mobile network architecture is becoming modular and disaggregated. Major mobile infrastructure vendors must create solutions that can be integrated with third-party hardware and software from multiple partners. Expanding network capacity and improving time-to-market of new services using today s specialised proprietary telecoms solutions is time consuming. Network virtualisation enables much faster provisioning of new services, but it also encourages disaggregation of the network. The industry must be open to exploring new business opportunities with multiple new partners to develop the right solution for MNOs. 7
8 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY BEYOND LTE: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES ESSENTIAL 5G INVESTMENTS VENDOR OPPORTUNITIES AND IMPACTS APPENDIX ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON 37
9 About the author Roberto Kompany (Senior Analyst) is a member of Analysys Mason s Telecoms Software and Networks research team and is the lead analyst for the Next-Generation Wireless Networks programme focusing on strategy and market research. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Roberto worked for Dixons Carphone, where he analysed the effect on the business of shifts in the telecoms market for example, in terms of mergers, operator KPIs and technology in Europe and the UK. Previous positions included consultancy, where he helped a variety of clients worldwide with mobile-related projects, such as a capex reduction and developing a 5-year strategy for an incumbent s wireless infrastructure. 38
10 Analysys Mason s consulting and research are uniquely positioned Analysys Mason s consulting services and research portfolio CONSULTING We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms industry: communications and digital service providers, vendors, financial and strategic investors, private equity and infrastructure funds, governments, regulators, broadcasters, and service and content providers. Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces. We are future-focused and help clients understand the challenges and opportunities that new technology brings. RESEARCH Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises. We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services. Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct access to analysts. 39
11 Research from Analysys Mason 40
12 Consulting from Analysys Mason 41
13 PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN JUNE 2017 Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0) Registered in England No All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any client-specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.
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