AMM 6 th Annual Aerospace Materials Conference April 2012 Pittsburgh, PA

Transcription

1 AMM 6 th Annual Aerospace Materials Conference April 2012 Pittsburgh, PA Paul Fielding Business Development ATK Aerospace Structures Division (937) paul.fielding@atk.com

2 ATK Aerospace Structures Division (ATK - ASD) ATK AEROSPACE STRUCTURES Commercial GEnx Engine Fan Case Boeing 767 Counterbalance springs Rolls Royce WXB Rear Fan Case AW609 Fuselage skins Business/Regional Jet demo structures A350 XWB Fuselage Stringers Fuselage Frames Military Aircraft Structures Radomes, Antennas, Apertures, Sensors Atlas V Launch Launch Vehicle Structures Rocket Motor Cases Composite Fan Containment Cases Case Wrapping Machine Stringer & Frame forming machines -ASFM Stringers Delta Forward Frustum Thrust Structure Delta IV Aft & Fwd Skirts Co-cured Wing & Fuselage Skins Interstage Intertank F-35 Lightning II ATK Parent Company $4B+ in Revenues ATK ASD focus is on primary structures, assemblies, mission systems, and automation

3 Game Changing Examples: Radial vs. Turbine engines Wright, P&W, Lycoming Allison, GE, RR, Westinghouse Allied Signal, Garrett, Honeywell, Williams CRT vs. LCD televisions (220+ vs. 22+) Admiral, Dumont, Emerson, Packard-Bell Hitachi, Matsushita, Sanyo, Sony Durabrand, LG (Goldstar), Samsung, Vizio Composites represent a game changing technology to the aerostructures market Different, Difficult, Exotic, Expensive, High-performance,Lightweight,Un-proven

4 Opportunity 30 Commercial Aircraft "Fly Away" Composite Structure (Fcst Jan 2010) Lbs (M) Regional Jets Business Jets Boeing Airbus Assumes no Airbus/Boeing New Single Aisle until after 2020 Assumes B777X in 2018

5 Aerostructures Market Revenue 2009 Metallic, Composite & Assembly Counterpoint Market Intelligence (CMI) estimates total aerostructures sales of ~$40B+ in 2012 Value of composite structures is ~$8B 20% of total revenue Grows to ~$18B (2X+) by % of total revenue Data from 2010 Aerostructures Market Report, Counterpoint LLC Doubling of output in 7 years will require Capital Investment, Development of Engineering talent, Training of Factory Labor Will the adoption of composites continue, plateau or decline?

6 Value by Tier Level Primes (Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier, Embraer, etc) Seven (7) Super Tier 1 s (Spirit, MHI, Alenia, etc), companies with > $1B in revenues Tier 1 s = most of their production goes to the Primes Tier 2 s = majority of product goes to Tier 1 s, some goes to Primes 7% 39% 11% 43% Level Rev ($B) % to Total Prime % Tier % Tier 2to Tier % Tier 2 to Primes 3.0 7% Total % Prime In house Tier 1 to Prime Tier 2 to Prime Tier 2 to Tier 1 As delivery rates grow the pie gets bigger Legacy program content offloaded to make room for new programs at OEM or Super Tier 1 (Example: Aernova obtains A350 horizontal as Airbus Spain builds A350 wing) Data from 2010 Aerostructures Market Report, Counterpoint LLC

7 Aerostructures Landscape Integrated Major Assemblies = Metals focus = Composites Focus = Metals focus, with some Composites Capability = Metals focus, with strong Composites Capability Super Tier 1 Major assemblies, some design Tier 1 Sub assemblies Tier 2 Light Assemblies Components $10M $50M $100M $500M $1,000M $5,000M Revenues (Aerostructures) Shumate Feb 2011 Smaller companies are either metallic or composites focused Mid size companies are trying to acquire composites capabilities Expansion and potential consolidation of supply base creates new Tier 1 s or Super Tier 2

8 Evolution of Structures Process Landscape ATL = Automated Tape Laying DF= Drape Forming TP = Thermoplastics RTM= Resin Transfer Molding HLU = Hand Lay Up AFP = Automated Fiber Placement RI = Resin Infusion ASFM = Automated Stiffener Forming Machine New processes will emerge with next generation aircraft Out of Autoclave, Stitching, Preforms, Thermoplastic & Expanded role of Resin Infusion?

9 Where the Processes Fall in the Tier Structure Low Capital Expense High Tier 2 OEMs (Airbus, B777) Super Tier 1 (Airbus, Boeing B787) Wings & Empennage OEMs & Super Tier 1 (Airbus, Boeing B787) Fuselage Asia / N. Africa / Mexico / US/ EU Tier 2 Stringers & Frames A350, LE Tier 1 & Tier 2 Floor beams, Horizontals, Spars, Frames, Shear ties Higher Capital Processes Correlate With Higher Tier Suppliers

10 Another View. Where the Processes Fall in the Tier Structure Low Capital Expense High IP Content / Complexity Wing Fuselage Spars Frames Floor beams CSeries Wing Bomb. Tier 2 US / EU / Japan OEM & Super Tier 1 CSeries CWB China Doors Fairings Tier 2 Asia (China) HLU RI RTM TP ASFM DF ATL AFP Advanced Processes Tied to Complexity and Part IP?

11 Summary Composites are definitely here to stay Double-digit annual growth projected Considerable upside potential on new innovations and applications Next generation(s) of engineers have greater exposure to, and knowledge of, composites Certain applications will heavily favor composites, certain applications will heavily favor metals The battleground will be in the middle where it can go either way. Hard work and innovative thinking will carry the day The heavy lifting begins

12 Contact: Paul Fielding Business Development (937)