Vulnerability Analysis of information systems (Modeling of interaction between information systems and social infrastructures)

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1 Vulnerability Analysis of information systems (Modeling of interaction between information systems and social infrastructures) Ichiro Murase Team Leader of Security Technology Team, Information Technology Research Department, Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. 1

2 Mission oriented program 2 MEXT Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology JST Japan Science and Technology Agency Head Office RISTEX Research Institute of Technology for Society Mission Oriented Program 1 Establish a knowledge system for solving social problems of safety and realizing the ideal social system Mission Oriented Program 2 "Challenges in identifying vulnerabilities hidden in our highly sophisticated information society and exploring solutions" Director: Norihisa Doi (Professor, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Chuo University) Assistant Director: Suguru Yamaguchi (Professor, Graduate School of Information Science, Nara Institute of Science and Technology) 2

3 Hazard Map for natural disaster Example Simulation on lava flow in case of Mt. Fuji s eruption 3

4 Situation surrounding information systems Information systems had been the social infrastructure Social Effect would be very huge in case of CII accidents. Black box IT is the black box for many people by using general purpose products. Popularization The Internet had popularized Information systems. Complexity Information systems have very complex technologies. Interdependency Connecting systems had increased interdependence among information systems. Jan 2003 Aug 2003 Aug 2003 May Increased effects of CII accidents - Emergence of CII accidents beyond calculation the Internet down by Computer Virus Slammer in Korea North America s Blackout Big confusion by Computer Virus Blaster in Japan Big confusion by one telecom carrier s accident in Japan 4

5 To Minimize effects of Information systems accident Characteristics on measures against Information systems accident in Japan - Problems on government, local government and CII - Measure of individual corporate without outer collaborations - Only turnaround without fundamental solutions - Bureaucratism on policy execution In case of Information systems accident - Turnarounds by each company - Difficulty in using knowledge on past cases - Difficulty in estimating effectiveness etc. Measures beyond individual corporate frameworks Need for understanding effects of CII Information systems accident Hazard map for Information systems accident Accumulation of knowledge by constructing database 5

6 Hazard map for information systems accident Hazard map is a tool that we can survey vulnerabilities on advanced information society and effects of information systems accident. In case of social accidents including a big earthquake, terrorism and natural disaster, we can analyze vulnerabilities on advanced information society and effects of information systems accident by simulating effects of social accidents. 6

7 Output image of Hazard map for information systems accident Simulation in case of information systems accident caused by blackout in Tokyo 12 hours later Blackout happens 24 hours later Map of Kanto are in Japan 1 hour later Areas that have large influences of Information systems accident caused by blackout 7

8 Vulnerabilities on advanced information society in Japan Information Systems in Japan much depend on power sector and communication sector. Other Sectors Financial, Transportation, etc. Telecommunication Sector Power Sector 8

9 Goal of Hazard Map for information systems accident Goal Hazard Map should show that information systems in Japan much depend on power sector and telecommunication sector. Points We would survey effects of large blackout on information systems. Despite there are many servers at data centers that have backup powers, client terminals have no backup powers, it would disturb stability of information systems. Information systems accident in Tokyo area would spread throughout all Japan. 9

10 Precondition 1 # Power sector 1) Regarding power supply network data, use the disclosure of information 2) Categorize large blackout as below; - all day blackout around whole metropolitan area - quarter day blackout around whole metropolitan area - all day blackout around one religion( about 20km in radius) - quarter day blackout around one religion( about 20km in radius) # Telecommunication sector 1) Regarding telecommunication backbone data in Japan, refer to WHITE PAPER Information and Communications in Japan ) Assume network structure as below; - backbone network established by main switching equipments set on each prefecture - edge network established between main switching equipments and local switching equipments set on each town 3) Serious trouble in each prefecture in case of main switching equipment accident 4) Serious trouble in town in case of local switching equipment accident 10

11 Precondition 2 # Relationship between power sector and telecommunication sector 1) No influence of blackouts on main switching equipments that have backup power unit 2) Big influence of blackouts on local switching equipments that have no strong backup power unit # General information systems 1) Assume Japanese Top 2000 companies 2) Assume information systems structure as below; - Main office in Tokyo, Main server in Tokyo - 3 typical patterns as below; type A: local offices at all prefectures( 10%) type B: local offices at 10 main cities( 70% ) type C: local offices at Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya(20%) 3) Duplex network among offices at critical infrastructure companies 4) No-duplex network among offices 5) No influence of blackouts on servers in local offices at 10 main cities that have backup power unit 6) Big influence of blackouts on servers in local offices at prefectures that have no strong backup power unit 7) No connection between client terminal and UPS or backup power unit 11

12 Simulation Scenario 1. Large blackout in Tokyo area 2. Serious troubles in telecommunication sector 3. Influences on information systems in other sector #Assume relationship among offices by using Statistics on Information and Communication by Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications 12

13 Output image 1 minute later 5 minutes later Influence of blackout on information systems 13

14 Telecommunication carrier s backbone network structure in Japan WHITE PAPER Information and Communications in Japan

15 Power supply network in Japan 15

16 Prototype of Simulation on Information systems accident AnyLogic 5.0 (simulation software product) Developing prototype of simulation on information systems accident Focusing on huge blackout in Tokyo area Depending on power sector and communication sector This research is funded by RISTEX (Research Institute of Technology for Society ) of JST( Japan Science and Technology Agency). RISTEX promotes mission oriented program 2. The title of mission oriented program 2 is "Challenges in identifying vulnerabilities hidden in our highly sophisticated information society and exploring solutions. 16