Improving Resilience and Acceptance of Large

Transcription

1 Improving Resilience and Acceptance of Large Energy Infrastructure Projects 5 th EAPC/PfP Workshop on Critical Infrastructure Protection & Civil Emergency Planning: Comprehensive Views on Resilient Infrastructures Zurich, Switzerland 2 October 2007 By Professor Saifur Rahman Advanced Research Institute Virginia Polytechnic Inst & State University, U.S.A. 1 Outline Defining resilience Resilience matrics Identifying critical infrastructures and interdependency 5-step process for resiliency planning Acceptance of large energy infrastructure projects 2

2 Defining Resilience Resilience refers to the capacity of infrastructure, service and social systems potentially exposed to hazards from technical, natural or intentional events to adapt either by resisting system degradation or by readily restoring and maintaining acceptable levels of functioning, structure and service following an event. 3 Resilience and Service Restoration Graphic Resilient physical and social systems must be robust, redundant, resourceful, and capable of rapid response 4

3 Resilience and 4 Qualities Resilience for both physical and social systems can be conceptualized as having 4 infrastructural qualities: Robustness Redundancy Resourcefulness Rapidity Source: Bruneau, M., S. Chang, R. Eguchi, G. Lee, T. O Rourke, A. Reinhorn, M. Shinozuka, K. Tierney, W. Wallace, 5 and D. von Winterfelt A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities. Earthquake Spectra 19(4): Resilience and 4 Qualities (cont d) Robustness: the inherent strength or resistance in a system to withstand external demands without degradation or loss of functionality. Redundancy: system properties that allow for alternate options, choices, and substitutions under stress. Resourcefulness: the capacity to mobilize needed resources and services in emergencies. Rapidity: the speed with which disruption can be overcome and safety, services, and financial stability restored. Source: Bruneau, M., S. Chang, R. Eguchi, G. Lee, T. O Rourke, A. Reinhorn, M. Shinozuka, K. Tierney, W. Wallace, 6 and D. von Winterfelt A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities. Earthquake Spectra 19(4):

4 5-Step Process for Resilience Planning 1. List assets - take inventory 2. Perform network analysis - identify critical nodes and links 3. Identifying threats and vulnerability of each critical components 4. Analyze the fault tree model using an event tree (vulnerability analysis) 5. Budget analysis - compute optimal resource allocation (risk assessment) 7 Step 1: List Assets - Take Inventory The assets of an infrastructure are the components of its network structure: Collect technical descriptions of facility assets Identify surroundings and supporting infrastructures t Describe existing security measures 8

5 Step 2: Network Analysis In every critical infrastructure system: We can model critical i infrastructures as a collection of nodes and links. Identify the critical nodes and links When funding is limited, protect the critical nodes and links first. 9 Step 3: Identifying Threats and Vulnerability In this step, we need to identify threats and vulnerability of each critical components. Steps to follow: Gather data - maps, historical data Determine how critical nodes can cause sector failure Determine threats for each critical node/component Based on historical data, identify probability that each threat will succeed 10

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7 Hurricane Rita, September Impact of Natural Disaster on Refinery Availability Gulf of Mexico damaged oil rig An oil refinery is submerged in water in Alabama 14

8 Pipeline - Vulnerability Analysis Step 4/5: Vulnerability/Risk Analysis Step 4: Evaluate the vulnerability of each infrastructure using systematic ti methodology. Step 5: Examine the degree of risk based on information on costs and damages to critical infrastructures. Then, identify possible strategies to minimize risk or vulnerability. Adding redundancy is another strategy to make critical infrastructure more resilient! 16

9 The Challenge of Complexity 17 Acceptance of Large Energy Infrastructure Projects Involve local communities to take ownership Involve host governments in cross-border projects Provide additional services/benefits to local communities 18

10 Baku-T bilisi-ceyhan Pipeline Source: BP.com 19 Infrastructures for Multi-Purpose Use: BTC Pipelines & Telecommunication opportunities The BTC pipeline p The BTC pipe welding activities along the pipeline route 20

11 Pipeline & Fiber Optic Installation Open trench operations on 52 mile cross-country pipeline Fiber optic cable installed on top of pipeline provides communication and control of intake pumps (Abilene, (Abilene Texas) Use this part of the pipeline monitoring system to provide telecom and internet access to local population 21 Nigeria Pipelines Oil companies build pipelines literally in people's front yards 22 Foto: DannyMcL, Lizenz: Creative Commons

12 Nigeria Pipelines (cont d) Nigeria lost $ 4billion in 2006 for damage (sabotage) to pipelines, loss of supply, security expenses. 23 Three Gorges Dam in China 24

13 20,000 MW of Electrical Power 25 Hydropower Station 26

14 Project Layout 27 28

15 Ships Waiting to Move Upstream 29 30

16 Approach to Shipping Locks 31 Locks for Shipping Traffic 32

17 From Ship Lock to Ship Lift 33 34

18 Lift Ships and transport them across the Dam 35 Conclusions Improve system resiliency by: Identifying vulnerability & threats Adding redundancy to protect critical nodes Increase the acceptance of large energy infrastructure projects by: Involving local people & government to take ownership Designing infrastructures for multi-purpose use 36

19 Thank you for your attention Saifur Rahman Professor and Director Virginia Tech - Advanced Research Institute (VT-ARI) 4300 Wilson Blvd Ste 750, Arlington, VA 37