ITU-T regional development forum : Next Generation Access Regulation and

Transcription

1 ITU-T regional development forum : Next Generation Access Regulation and Trends Cairo, December, 2010 Agenda Market panorama: highlights from the World and the middle east The Connected Experience : More bandwidth more symmetry more convergence Update on NGA-broadband regulation : Europe and Middle East Update on NGA-broadband funding : Public and private partnerships

2 FTTx market panorama in the world Source: IDATE for Council Europe FTTx Middle East panorama in the region in Middle East - Overview In December 2009, UAE is undoubtedly the main /B market in the region, in terms of subscribers and homes passed. Global Figures UAE is representing 91% of /B subscribers and 94% of homes passed in the region Countries Homes Passed Dec 09 Countries Subscribers Dec 09 UAE UAE Egypt Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Barhain Barhain Egypt 500 Lebanon Kuwait 500 Kuwait Lebanon 300 Source: IDATE for Council Europe

3 Understand your end-customer demand Downstream/Upstream ratio 1:1 2:1 3:1 5:1 10:1 Data www Telephony Multi-media sharing Picture & video storage Camera surveillance Social media Video conferencing Internet traffic TV, Broadcast video, VOD, IPTV ? There is significant movement towards more symmetric residential traffic Understand your end-customer demand Mb/s / sub (100 Mb/s peak) Mb/s HSI VoIP OTT SD SD VoD HD HD VoD 3DTV Femto 20% CAGR expected bandwidth growth Sources: Council; Operators; Alcatel-Lucent Global peak and average bandwidth have demonstrated their ability to grow consistently. 100Mbps will eventually become commonplace.

4 Understand your end-customer demand More Interactivity Online gamers need speed & static IP (server) Speed - Download allowance - Low latency - No throttle Static IP - Low contention ratio More Symmetry Online storage space Online backup and share TV-centric video communication Two way HD stream (15 Mbps) /B STB needs real time video encoding Create minimal barriers for adoption Pay-as-you-go models for support Third parties create wholesale revenue Understand your end-customer demand Mobile Backhaul 2G, 3G, LTE Significant CAPEX and OPEX savings 90% savings using DSL and 75% using GPON instead of leased lines Good geographic overlap between FTTx and cell sites Large cells small cells to femto IP/Optical FTTx Access Business Access Ethernet/ MPLS/Optical Triple Play Business Access FTTx enables symmetrical services to SME/Large enterprises Reduces CAPEX and OPEX Driving competitive enterprise prices FTTx must meet residential and the specialized mobile backhaul and business access requirements More on Convergence MBH and Small Cells?

5 Operator strategies for FTTx terminology and topology : P2P, AE and GPON (P2MP) Central Office Access loop Home Point To Point IP More concentrated More distributed Ethernet switch Splicing Efficient Outside Plant Small street/pole cabinet No remote powering Less maintenance, truck rolls, Higher CAPEX Small scale deployments Cost-effective Fiber Feeder Few fibers in feeder, smaller ducts Active Ethernet IP Ethernet switch Ethernet switch Similar (same) topology as FTTN CO consolidation Higher OPEX Complement to VDSL Long-reach OSP Outside Plant GPON IP Fiber Cost & Management (P-to-MP) CO scalability & Consol. (20+ km) PON OLT Optical splitter (1:32-64) Large Scale Greenfields Operator Strategies for FTTx Strategy Migration from Central Office ADSL to : 3 common strategies FTTN/C w/vdsl2 + 1 FTTN/C Complemented with FTTN complemented with Main strategy FTTN in greenfield/strategic areas Used to counter cable competition at&t + FTTB w/vdsl2 or Eth 2 Complemented with FTTB Main strategy FTTB - Re-use building infrastructure Reduce cost, speed up coverage Used to quickly build a fiber footprint and grab market share + CO/VDSL2 3 Complemented with CO/VDSL2 Main strategy Upgrade CO to VDSL2 Quickly boost coverage Start building subscriber base in short term VDSL2 ideal short/medium term: Sufficient bandwidth; quick time-to-market; and cost-efficient coverage

6 Competition drives uptake Private and public hand in hand the layered model End-user s (residential, public & business) Active Network (network equipments, business & operation support) (trenches, ducts, fibre) Active Network Integrated or separated? Active Network More on 3-layered model? Regulation and the different sharing options Service Open Access Active Unbundling Competition Content SLA Application IP & Ethernet Wholesale Network Wavelength Dark fiber Dark Fibre Ducts, Sewers, Poles Infra. GPON P2P WDM PON Open Access (Packet) Open Access (Wavelength) Open Access (Fiber) Open Access Feeder (Duct) filling Sharing can take place at many layers, independently of technology

7 Regulation specutrum and service based competition Integrated Sharing Active Sharing Full separation Service Active Integrated Operator Integrated Operator Integrated Operator Vertical Service Vertical Service Vertical Service Owner Vertical Network Operator Owner Competition Competition Service Competition Open Access Regulation Access to public infrastructure Regulated passive wholesale Regulated active wholesale Regulated passive & active wholesale What does the EU Commission recommend? Europe recent past and current situation : regulatory focus End-user s (residential, public & business) Active Network (network equipments, business & operation support) (trenches, ducts, copper, fibre) EU regulation focuses on passive infrastructure access/sharing (LLU) and active network access (bitstream wholesale)

8 What does the EU Commission recommend? 1 Regulatory NGA principles for EU states 1. Promote infrastructure-based competition (vs service-based) Service innovation on your own network is key 2. Regulatory remedies should be based on geographic segmentation Urban, suburban and rural area s 3. Duct access and in house wiring sharing is key No regulatory burden if sharing options granted 4. Fiber concentration (flexibility) point is where access should be granted Location should be determined by economical and density conditions 2 Community guidelines for the application of STATE AID rules in relation to rapid deployment of broadband networks, Sept Definition of white, grey and black area s for NGA networks 2. State Aid is OK for white, possible for grey, unacceptable for black 3. Public investment in private venture under market conditions is OK FFP COCO An update on NGA regulation Three-step process for regulating markets in Europe The EU has defined seven product and service markets in which ex ante regulation may be warranted Markets 4 and 5 are relevant to NGA networks because they concern broadband (Recommendation 2007/879/EC) Step1 Market definition Market 4: Wholesale (physical) network infrastructure access (including shared or fully unbundled access) at a fixed location Market 5: Wholesale broadband access Step 2 Market analysis Market 4: Typically dominated by the former incumbent operator Market 5: Not always 100% incumbent dominant (dependent on product definition and geography) Step 3 Market remedies Market 4: Grant access to the physical path of the network duct sharing in-building fibre SLU for FTTC (terminating segment) fibre unbundling dark fibre Market 5: A range of possible remedies include different levels of bitstream access different pricing mechanisms etc.

9 Operator strategies for FTTx Economics and technology go hand in hand ADSL ~12 Mbps VDSL ~50 Mbps GPON 100 Mbps+ VDSL ~50 Mbps VDSL ~100 Mbps P2P/AE 100 Mbps+ Revenues CAPEX OPEX Penetration Service Packages Wholesale Civil Engineering Layer Active Layer Operate & Maintain Customer Acquisition Physical Access Economical considerations for The business case shows regional differences CAPEX ( /subs) Major cities Average cities/suburban Rural area s Fiber drop Dark Fiber Note: 30% take rate Fiber drop Dark Fiber Trenching ducts Engineering Home HW Network HW Fiber drop Dark Fiber Trenching/ducts Engineering Home HW Network HW Trenching/ducts OSP engineering Home HW Network HW Pay back period ~4 years ~8 years > 20 years Civil works and infrastructure is main parameter of the business case Traditional operators will not go all the way on their own

10 Regulation : The NGA investment Public investment model should consider geographical segmentation 100 % Market Driven Risk Driven Policy Driven Fraction public to private investment Services Active Private Small town Hudiksvall Village Kilafors Lindefallet 0 % Dense city Stockholm Public Low Medium-size town Jönkoping Socio-economic impact of fiber High Socio-economic impact Low/Medium Medium High Investor Payback Time ~5 year ~10 year ~20 year Public Sector Intervention Access to infra, RoW, Ducts, sewers,, active. in-house labeling.. dark fiber. Active? Utility services? 19 Presentation Title Month 2008 Worldwide testimonial on investment Policy makers and operators should go hand in hand Required investment in Euros per HH Source : McKinsey & Company

11 Thank you! deployments opening up at various layers Fibre access and infrastructure sharing Integrated Sharing Active Sharing Full separation S A P Integrated Operator Integrated Operator Integrated Operator Vertical Service Vertical Service Vertical Service Owner Vertical Network Operator Owner Competition Service Competition Access to public infrastructure wholesale Active wholesale wholesale & active wholesale Share the ducts Share the fibre (Event. share the pipe) Share the pipe Share the fibre Share the pipe

12 2 Various level to consider for sharing Content SLA Application or Network provider (interco.) IP & Ethernet Wholesale Commercial agreement SLA defining content availability, QoS L3 Bitstream: IP and VRF L2 Tunneling: Ethernet VLANs/ATM PVCs Network Fibre Sharing Dark Fibre sharing Infra. Fiber sharing at fiber flexibility point Limited legacy (versus copper situation) Trenches, sewers, pipes, poles, ducts, cables, Main area of re-use of existing infrastructure Terminology Open Access is often used for L2 & L3 IP/Ethernet Wholesale 2 Six scenarios of sharing considered AP AP IP & Eth. AP IP & Eth. Fibre Fibre Operator Operator Operator Operator FT-ducts / NC-fiber (FR) Proposal BT Open Reach (UK) NTT (Japan) / 9C (FR) A & A & AP AP IP & Ethernet Wholesale AP IP & Eth. 3rd Party / Public Fibre sharing Infra provider Reference wholesaler provider Fibre provider Reference wholesaler Paris-sewers / CG 92-fiber (FR) Nordics Citynets Reggefiber (NL) Open Access Open Active Access Combined Access to civil works is the key driver for investments. It allows network replicability and infrastructural competition.