Mitigating Energy Market Volatility
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1 International Energy Forum Mitigating Energy Market Volatility Noé van Hulst, Secretary General, International Energy Forum (IEF)
2 International Energy Forum IEF covers key consuming & including those outside IEA and OPEC Neutral Facilitator of Global Energy Dialogue Covers key producing, consuming and transit countries including those outside IEA and OPEC Around 90% of Global Oil & Gas Supply and Demand
3 Fresh IEF Charter Signed by 86 countries at Extraordinary IEF Ministerial Meeting (22 February 2011) Includes all major energy producers and consumers Reinforces commitment (producers / consumers / transit) Procedure for Extraordinary Ministerial Meeting
4 Mitigating Energy Market Volatility IEA / IEF / OPEC cooperation Shared analysis of future trends Linkages - physical and financial markets Enhancing data transparency (oil, gas, investment) Strong support from G20
5 Shared Analysis of Energy Market Trends and Outlook 2011 Oil Markets: Consensus on comfortable demand / supply balance / high spare capacity Medium-term: Long-term: Need for: Reduce uncertainty to facilitate investment Consensus ample availability of oil resources Harmonisation of definitions and better explanation of divergences to market Annual Symposium on Outlooks (2 nd will take place on 23 January 2012)
6 Linkages between Physical and Financial Markets Emergence of oil as an asset class; Wide divergence of views: Fundamentals vs financials Consensus: Greater transparency (oil inventories, OTC) Need for strong international co-ordination of regulation Continue horizontal dialogue between physical / financial oil markets 2 nd IEA / IEF / OPEC Workshop 29 November 2011
7 Number of countries with smiley face Enhancing Data Transparency Report to G20 Finance Ministers (April 2011) Report to G20 Finance Ministers (October 2011) Oil spot market prices - assessment by oil price reporting agencies Price volatility of oil / gas / coal Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi) Performance JAN-JUN 2007 JUL-DEC 2007 JAN-JUN 2008 JUL-DEC 2008 JAN-JUN 2009 JUL-DEC 2009 JAN-JUN 2010 JUL-DEC 2010 Submission Timeliness Completeness
8 Improving the Quality of Report to IEF Ministers & G20 Finance Ministers (April 2011) Jodi Organisations: New tools / practices, enhance interaction with data users Training Statisticians, upgrade website / database Countries: Energy data offices better equipped / staffed Appropriate regulation and tackle confidentiality Target: 3 Smiley Faces before year-end 2011
9 Extension of to Gas and Annual Investment Data Monthly gas data Launch before end 2011 supply, demand, stocks Cooperation with all relevant organisations (including GECF) Annual data, start with First results in 2012 capacity expansion, upstream / downstream critical for demand / supply balance medium - term
10 The Way Forward Strengthen IEF s neutral facilitator role Deliver results for IEF13 (Kuwait March 2012) & G20 on: Transparency(Jodi-Oil/Gas/Investment) Investment (NOC-IOC, Jodi Investment) Sustainability (Energy Efficiency, Energy Poverty)
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