Joint Session Webinar OC/PC/CIPC. Michael Moon Senior Director of Reliability Risk Management September 11, 2012

Transcription

1 Joint Session Webinar OC/PC/CIPC Michael Moon Senior Director of Reliability Risk Management September 11, 2012

2 NERC Direction and Priorities Board of Trustee Meetings, August Standards Compliance Reliability Issues Steering Committee (RISC) 2 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

3 Internal Controls Compliance Integrate now in Reliability Standard Audit Worksheet (RSAWs) and audits Greater consideration of systems and processes Enhanced staff o Recruitment, training and education Instruction and information for industry as well as auditors 3 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

4 Internal Controls Standards Move away from instances of non-compliance for the high volume requirements; PRC-005 Move towards system and process COM-003 Operating Personnel Communications Protocols CIP Version 5 4 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

5 Internal Controls Hierarchy Process, informal not documented, tribal knowledge Process, formal and documented repeatable, measureable Process, implemented; monitoring, identifying, assessing, correcting o Monitoring; periodically and after events and disturbances Process, measured, assessed and improved 5 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

6 NERC Standard Processes Manual Revisions to Implement SPIG Recommendations OC/PC/CIPC Joint Webinar, September 11, 2012 Cathy Wesley, Standards Committee Process Subcommittee

7 Key Revisions Clarification of the requirements for responding to stakeholder comments during informal and formal comment periods Retention of the concept of including no ballots that are not accompanied by comments in the calculation of quorum, but not being counted in the calculation of consensus; elimination of the evaluation of comments submitted alongside a no vote to determine relevance Clarification of the proposal to move measures from standards to Reliability Standard Audit Worksheet (RSAWs) 2 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

8 Key Revisions Removal of the proposal to eliminate violation risk factors (VRFs) and violation severity level (VSLs) from standards Clarification of the handling and purpose of interpretations Clarification of the intent of the waiver provision in section RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

9 Key Dates August 29-October 12, 2012: Formal Comment Period August 29-September 28, 2012: Join Ballot Pool October 3-12, 2012: Initial Ballot SPM Revisions Project Page: esses_manual_revisions_spig_2012.html 4 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

10 Questions? Cathy Wesley NERC and Regional Coordination, PJM (610) RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

11 Update: Reliability Issues Steering Committee September 11, 2012 Andy Rodriquez Director of Reliability Risk Analysis and Control

12 Conceptual RISC Process Prioritized Risk Register Identify Concerns Prioritize and Track the Issue Analyze the Problem Make Improvements Measure Performance 2 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

13 Conceptual Relationships Board of Trustees Events Analysis Compliance Reliability Assessments Performance Analysis RISC RRAC Other Solutions Standards Standing Committees and Industry 3 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

14 RISC Membership Chair; At-Large Christine M. Schwab Dominion Resources Services, Inc. Member; CIPC Jim Brenton ERCOT Member; OC Jim Castle NYISO Member; At Large * Sylvain Clermont Hydro Quebec Member; At Large Peter Flynn National Grid Member; MRC Scott Helyer Tenaska, Inc. Member; MRC Jason Marshall ACES Power Marketing Member; PC Jeff Mitchell RFC Member; SC Allen Mosher APPA Member; MRC Bob Schaffeld Southern Company Member; At Large Brian Silverstein Bonneville Power Administration Member; At Large Michael Smith Georgia Transmission Corporation Member; CCC W. Clay Smith Georgia System Operations Corporation Member; MRC John Twitty Transmission Access Policy Study Group Member (non-voting); NERC Staff Andy Rodriquez NERC * Board of Trustees Confirmation Pending 4 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

15 Initial Thoughts Nominating a Risk Problem Statement: What specific action, scenario, or behavior is creating a threat to reliability? Harm: How does the problem described directly harm reliability? Basis: What brought this issue to your attention? Risk Estimate: What do you think the likelihood and impact of this risk are? Support Materials: What studies and/or research exist to support the risk estimate? Suggestions: What ideas do you have for how to respond to this risk? 5 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

16 Reliability Risk Informed Decision Making 6 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

17 Questions? 7 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

18 Coordinated Action Plan Phase 2 Joint OC/PC/CIPC Webinar Stuart Brindley, NERC Consultant September 11, 2012

19 HILF Task Force Reports Provide a total of 55 recommendations NERC is working on with industry Operating/Planning/Critical Infrastructure Committees Reviewing and Assessing 2 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

20 Steps to Address Recommendations Identify lead Technical Committee Develop scope and plan; seek approval from Technical Committees Direct appropriate group to address plan Deliver on milestones in plan 3 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

21 Coordinate Phase 2 Efforts Engage the right resources Consider other forums (e.g., North American Transmission Forum, North American Generator Forum, EPRI, and Department of Energy) Re-structure the Joint Steering Group, depending on need Seek Electricity Sub-Sector Coordinating Council (ESCC) advice and support to confirm priorities and help address issues Inform the NERC Board of Trustees and seek approval as appropriate 4 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

22 Questions Questions? 5 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

23 2012 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Preliminary Highlights Eric Rollison Engineer, Reliability Assessment

24 Background The 2012 Long Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) covers the period of 2013 through 2022 Statutory report, as identified in NERC Rules of Procedure, section 803 Identification, analysis, and trending of the following topics Demand forecasts by season (Summer / Winter) Resource Adequacy by season Reserve Margins Emerging Issues and their mitigation plans / alternatives 2 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

25 Assessment Areas Assessment Areas based on planning and operating activities will provide increased accuracy and eliminate complications created by RE boundaries. 3 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

26 Demand Outlook 1,030 1,020 1,010 1, Gigawatts (GW) Total Internal Demand to increase by 113,000 MW Demand Response increases by 26,000 MW Energy Efficiency increase by 13,800 MW DR (Load-Modifying) DR (Resource) Energy Efficiency Net Internal Demand Total Internal Demand 4 Preliminary Data RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

27 2022 NERC-Wide Planning Reserve Margins 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Anticipated Prospective Adjusted Potential Reference 5 Preliminary Data RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

28 Comparison of Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) 1.70% 1.60% 1.67% Compound annual growth rates calculated in the 2012 LTRA for summer data show an increase during the outlook, following over ten consecutive years of forecasted decline (2002 LTRA through 2011 LTRA). 1.50% 1.52% 1.40% 1.30% 1.45% 1.34% 1.41% 1.37% 1.31% 1.40% 1.39% 1.20% 1.26% 1.10% 1.00% 2008 LTRA 2009 LTRA 2010 LTRA 2011 LTRA 2012 LTRA Summer Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) Winter Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) 6 Preliminary Data RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

29 2013 and 2022 Demand Response Area Year Contribution ERCOT % 2.2% Load-Modifying 1, ,812.7 Resource FRCC % 7.0% 3, ,660.0 MISO % 10.2% 8, ,980.2 MRO - Other % 3.2% NPCC % 7.8% 3, , , ,320.9 PJM % 8.0% 14, ,600.0 SERC % 4.7% 8, ,674.8 SPP % 2.7% , WECC % 2.9% 5, , Preliminary Data RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

30 Capacity Outlook Future-Planned Capacity Change Capacity Mix 70 0% 19% 28% Gigawatts (GW) % 11% 37% 2022 Future-Planned Capacity Mix 20% 27% 5% 0 11% 4% % 2013 Existing and Planned 2022 Planned 2022 Conceptual 10-Year Change Capacity Type Capacity Share of Total Capacity Share of Total Capacity Share of Total Planned Conceptual Coal 308, % 303, % 307, % -4, Petroleum 52, % 52, % 52, % Gas 408, % 427, % 494, % 18,933 85,691 Nuclear 117, % 124, % 127, % 7,074 10,206 Other/Unknown % 1, % 2, % 1,492 1,871 Renewables 202, % 223, % 266, % 20,987 63,920 TOTAL 1,089, % 1,133, % 1,251, % 44, ,652 8 Preliminary Data RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

31 Transmission Outlook 45,000 40,000 35,000 Circuit Miles 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Transmission outlook similar to 2011 Under construction: 2,500 circuit miles Planned: 29,500 circuit miles by 2022 Conceptual: 38,000 circuit miles by Under Construction Under Construction+Planned Under Construction+Planned+Conceptual 9 Preliminary Data RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

32 2012 LTRA Risk Ranking PRELIMINARY RESULTS NOT FOR CITATION Extremely High Environmental Regulations Accommodating Variable Resources in System Operations Impact to Reliability Medium GMD Impacts to Communication Global Supply Chains Gas-Electric Interdependency Operational Risk of SPS/RAS Transmission Siting and Planning No Impact Very Rare FIDVR Simulation Probability of Occurence Very Likely 1-5 Year 6-10 Year 10 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

33 LTRA Roadmap Expected submission to Planning Committee for approval in October 2012 Expected submission to NERC Board of Trustees for approval in November 2012 Publicly released in November 2012 Additional comments and questions: 11 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

34 Questions Questions? 12 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

35 Natural Gas and Electric Power Interdependencies: Phase II Status Joint OC/PC/CIPC Committee Meeting September 2012 John Moura NERC Staff

36 Fundamental for Reliability Bulk power system reliability must be maintained, regardless of the generation mix; All generation must contribute to system reliability within their physical capabilities; and Industry standards and criteria must be fair, transparent and performance-based. 2 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

37 Assessment Focus Long and Short Term Planning Gas supply and fuel security Transportation expectations Generator Availability Resource Planning Reliability Assessment Resource Adequacy Studies Operational Planning Seasonal and dayahead observability Coordinated operational procedures Coordinated outage schedules Increasing flexibility Operations Information sharing and visibility Emergency operating procedures 3 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

38 Phase II Work Plan Determine vulnerabilities that can affect bulk power system reliability Identify ways that minimize those vulnerabilities Identify approaches where coordinated inter-industry activities could provide enhanced system reliability and improve efficiency Report outline: Future Perspectives (5-10 Timeframe) Pipeline Failures and Major Events Vulnerabilities Analyzed Scenarios Maintaining System Reliability New Challenges 4 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

39 Phase II Discussions Historical interruptions of gas supplies and observations Supply considerations: Line Pack Contingency Assessment Failure of Critical Compressors Storage Availability Focus on coordinated planning Flexibility needed to accommodate electric industry demand; in some areas flexibility is decreasing Gas Supply Reliability Pipeline Failures and Major Events Vulnerabilities Analyzed Scenarios Maintaining System Reliability New Challenges 5 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

40 Phase II Work Plan Scenarios on Reserve Margin performed Scenario Assumptions: Winter peak Dual-Fuel units available CTs not available CCs 50% available 2012 LTRA Reference Case Results will show a given area s sensitivity to gas fuel interruptions 2012 Scenario Reserve Margin forecast for sample area Gas Supply Reliability Pipeline Failures and Major Events Vulnerabilities Analyzed Scenarios Maintaining System Reliability New Challenges 6 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

41 Phase II Activities GADS data will be important in tracking gas-fired capacity availability rates. Trends for some areas may reveal increasing risks GADS gas-fired generator outages due to loss of fuel cause codes for sample area Gas Supply Reliability Pipeline Failures and Major Events Vulnerabilities Analyzed Scenarios Maintaining System Reliability Inhibitors and New Challenges 7 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

42 Phase II Work Plan Upon completion of analysis: Electric coordinators are provided with a better understanding of both capabilities and limitations of providing fuel services to their regions, particularly during periods of stress. Limitations can be developed on the amount of scheduled gas-fired generation within a region without a firm transportation service during likely periods of significant stress (i.e., peak demand periods) or alternatively limitations on the amount of standby/reserve generation capacity. Gas Supply Reliability Pipeline Failures and Major Events Vulnerabilities Analyzed Scenarios Maintaining System Reliability New Challenges 8 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

43 Phase II Activities New Challenges Paradigm Shift Gas Industry Implement new/enhanced rules for servicing largest consumer Electric Industry Address specific bulk power system reliability goals to support the development of appropriate Reliability Standards. Maintain status quo all BPS assets positively contribute to reliability FERC and Other Regulators Provide cornerstone for developing a framework around new rules and tariffs Gas Supply Reliability Pipeline Failures and Major Events Vulnerabilities Analyzed Scenarios Maintaining System Reliability Inhibitors and New Challenges 9 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

44 G&E-Phase II - Schedule Date September September Late- September/Early October October October/November December December Deliverable Submit report to gas industry (2 weeks) Submit report to RAS for comment Submit report to PC, OC, and MRC Review (2 weeks) Comments due to NERC Submit report to PC for final approval Submit report to BOT Publish 10 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

45 BES Definition Technical Justification Jeff Mitchell, PC Chair

46 BES Background The DBES SDT requested technical justification from the Operating Committee (OC)/Planning Committee (PC) on the following issues related to the definition of the Bulk Electric System (BES): Transmission 100 kv bright-line (in core definition) Generation thresholds (Inclusions I2 and I4): o MVA values associated with single unit and multiple unit facilities Reactive power sizing (MVA level) parameters (Inclusion I5) Powerflow out of local networks allowed? 2 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

47 BES Assignments Issue Transmission 100 kv bright-line (Core definition) Generation thresholds (Inclusions I2 and I4) PC Subcommittee Planning Executive Committee (ExCom) Reliability Assessments Subcommittee Reactive Power Sizing (MVA Level) System Analysis and Modeling Subcommittee (SAMS) Powerflow out of local networks System Analysis and Modeling Subcommittee (SAMS) 3 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

48 100 kv Alternative Options Surge Impedance Loading Short Circuit MVA Substation Connected MVA Transfer Distribution Factors (e.g. ODTF, PTDF) Angular Difference All options do not appear, at this time, to be a viable alternative to the 100 kv threshold. 4 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

49 20/75 MVA Generator Options Include all generators connected to BES, regardless of size Develop a uniform generator performance criterion, assessing potential impact to BES Unit characteristics, such as Capacity obligations Inertia constant ALR metrics to determine contributions to reliability At this time, all options do not appear to be a viable alternative to the 20/75 MVA thresholds. 5 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

50 Reactive Power Size Options Recommend the Inclusion I5 stands as it is now 6 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

51 Power Flow Out of LN? At this time, the recommendation is to limit the flow into an LN to active power only (i.e., outward reactive flow would be allowed). 7 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

52 Next Steps Next Steps for PC: Identify selected alternative based on engineering judgment and sufficient data Identify and reference any additional supporting information for inclusion into final report Expected Schedule: Action First Draft for PC Review/Comment Date September 2012 PC Meeting Final Draft for PC Review Late November 2012 Document Approval December 2012 PC Meeting 8 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY