Digital Layer Trends PostalVision 2020

Transcription

1 Digital Layer Trends PostalVision 2020 Matt Swain Associate Director June #PV InfoTrends 1

2 Comprehensive Research on Customer Communications Vertical Insight: Enterprise Communication Requirements (Announced) Service Expansion Opportunities for Document Outsourcing (In Progress) The Emergence of Digital Mailbox Services (2011) Capturing the SMB Marketing Automation Opportunity (2011) Mobile Technology: Making Print Interactive (2011) The Future of EBPP in North America (2010) Capturing the Cross-Media Direct Marketing Opportunity (2010) Trans Meets Promo: A European Perspective (2009) Multi-Channel Communications Measurement and Benchmarking (2008) Trans Meets Promo Is It More Than Market Hype? (2008) 2

3 Agenda Digital Disruption Relevance of the Postal Service in a Digital Age Preview of the UPU.post Initiative Conclusions and Recommendations 3

4 Strategic Paths for Service Providers Greater speed quality efficiency sustainability customer service Continuous investments in technology business processes sales & marketing that lead to Operations Driven Surviving Thriving New Dying Striving services products customers business models Innovation Driven 4

5 Digital Disruption 5

6 Social Media Statistics at a Glance More than 900 million Facebook users People spend over 700 billion minutes per month on the site LinkedIn has over 150 million members in 200 countries A new member joins every second There are over 200 million Twitter accounts 20% of tweets contain brand-related inquiries about products/services YouTube exceeds 3 billion views per day Over 72 hours of video are uploaded every minute, 4,320 hours every hour, and 103,680 hours every day 6

7 2012 InfoTrends Image source: Apple.com 7

8 Continued Growth in Mobile Connectivity 8

9 The The Consumer of of the Today Future 2012 InfoTrends Image source: Apple.com 9

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11 Millions of Mobile Payments Made at Starbucks 2012 InfoTrends Source: Starbucks 11

12 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q E-Commerce Spending Growth Continues in the U.S. $ Millions $60,000 $50,000 $49,698 $40,000 $39,132 $38,071 $39,045 $43,432? $30,000 $20, InfoTrends Source: Q U.S. retail e-commerce sales estimates, comscore,

13 New Paper from the USPS Office of Inspector General Opening sentence: As a highly trusted, venerable government institution with both a legal mandate to protect privacy and the authority to protect users from fraud, the U.S. Postal Service is in a unique position to play a key part in a vital infrastructure for new digital identity creation and authentication services InfoTrends Source: Risk Analysis Research Center, Office of Inspector General, USPS,

14 Preferred Way to Receive Mail in the Future How would you prefer to receive the majority of each type of mail in the future? Physical Digital Don't send/don't know 63% 61% 50% 48% 44% 46% 32% 34% 32% 31% 22% 2% 4% 3% 8% Personal correspondence Business correspondence Transactional mail Advertising mail Periodicals N = 1,528 Consumers in the U.S InfoTrends Source: The Emergence of Digital Mailbox Services, InfoTrends,

15 B2C Forecast for Transactional Communications in the U.S. 30 Paper Digital Billions of Documents Delivered InfoTrends Source: The Emergence of Digital Mailbox Services, InfoTrends,

16 Hybrid Mail Services Solving a Near-term Problem Physical to Digital Digital to Physical 16

17 2012 InfoTrends Source: "The Electronic Nails in the Post Office s Coffin, Businessweek, September 8,

18 Digital Mailbox Services Solving a Long-term Problem United States International (a sampling) 18

19 Emergence of Digital Mailbox Services in the U.S. 30 Paper Other Digital Digital Mailbox Billions of Documents Delivered InfoTrends Source: The Emergence of Digital Mailbox Services, InfoTrends,

20 Relevance of the Postal Service in a Digital Age 20

21 USPS Viewed as Not Necessary or Minimally Important Relative to your business needs/lifestyle, how would you rate the value of the U.S. Postal Service over the next 10 years? Business Consumer 27% 29% 31% 16% 12% 6% Today In 5 Years In 10 Years N = 301 businesses and 1,528 Consumers in the U.S InfoTrends Source: The Emergence of Digital Mailbox Services, InfoTrends,

22 Support for Various Changes in Postal Delivery How would you/your organization react if the U.S. Postal Service eliminated Saturday mail delivery? Delivered mail three days a week? Delivered mail three days a week, but delivered digital mail every day? Business Consumer 35% 30% 40% 34% 17% 19% Eliminates Saturday Delivery Delivers Mail 3 Days a Week Delivers Mail 3 Days a Week AND Delivers Digital Mail Daily N = 301 businesses and 1,528 Consumers in the U.S InfoTrends Source: The Emergence of Digital Mailbox Services, InfoTrends,

23 Most Attractive Potential Providers of Digital Mailbox Services (Consumer Survey) If the following organizations all offered digital mailbox services, which ones would you be most likely to try? Amazon 32% My own bank or credit union 23% Google 17% Bank of America Chase 14% 14% U.S. Postal Service Apple American Express Yahoo! Microsoft 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% Three Responses Permitted N = 1,138 Respondents that are already using/willing to try a digital mailbox service 2012 InfoTrends Source: The Emergence of Digital Mailbox Services, InfoTrends,

24 The Postal Service Role in the Digital Age Part 1: Facts and Trends The Postal Service Role in a Digital Age Part 2: Expanding the Postal Platform box and elockbox: Opportunities for the Postal Service Bridging the Digital Divide: Overcoming Regulatory and Organizational Challenges Meeting America s Emerging Communications Needs Digital Identity: Opportunities for the Postal Service 24

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26 Number of Postal e-services Introduced Globally InfoTrends Source: Measuring Postal e-services Developments: An Industry Perspective, UPU,

27 Worldwide Development of Postal e-services versus the Mean Level of their Respective Importance Source: Measuring Postal e-services Developments: An Industry Perspective, UPU,

28 Preview of the UPU.post Initiative 28

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30 Conclusions and Recommendations 30

31 Changing Market Dynamics Require New Approaches Degree of Change Changes in the Environment - Economy - Customer - Competitive - Technology GAP Transformational business model innovation Transformation Incremental business model innovation Misalignment Gap between environment and company changes Time Demise Source: IBM Business Model Transformation, adapted from Gerry Johnson, Kevan Scholes, Richard Whittington, 2012 InfoTrends Exploring Corporate Strategy, 7th Edition 2005 Prentice Hall, Pearson Education Limited 31

32 InfoTrends Opinion The universal delivery needs of consumers have changed The USPS and its regulating bodies must appreciate and respond to those changes or recognize a reduced relevance to consumers Continue to explore and embrace digital solutions Following an operational-efficiency path alone will result in lower consumer satisfaction and accelerate a transition to alternative media Consider opportunities in supporting digital mailbox services Whether it is an box, a.post initiative, a white-labeled solution, or providing a component of the identity and authentication services, the USPS should play a more active role in this space 32

33 SwainfoTrends blog.infotrends.com 33