Introduction to Computational Modeling of Social Systems

Transcription

1 Introduction to Computational Modeling of Social Systems Prof. Lars-Erik Cederman ETH - Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) Seilergraben 49, Room G.2, lcederman@ethz.ch Nils Weidmann, CIS Room E.3, weidmann@icr.gess.ethz.ch

2 Today s agenda 2 Introduction Course goals Course contents Examples Course logistics Prerequisites and grading Schedule Hardware requirements

3 Course goals 3 Become familiar with the paradigm Learn programming in Java Master RePast libraries Construct a simple computational model Start to think about how to apply the method to your own research puzzle

4 Course contents 4 Introduction to the principles of agentbased modeling Introduction to Java programming Introduction to RePast modeling In SS 2005 there will be an advanced course extending this introductory lecture

5 What is agent-based modeling? 5 ABM is a computational methodology that allows the analyst to create, analyze, and experiment with, artificial worlds populated by agents that interact in non-trivial ways Different from other types of computational techniques: econometrics, numerical solution, global modeling, AI modeling

6 Disaggregated modeling 6 If If <cond> then <action1> else <action2> Animate agents Inanimate agents Observer Organizations of agents Artificial world Data

7 Example: Iterated prisoner's dilemma 7 Generations of agents are pitted against each other in an interaction topology Each game involves two agents that make iterated, simultaneous choices Strategies evolve over time, from generation to generation

8 Java 8 Conceived by Sun in the early 1990s Became the new standard for the web thanks to platform-independence C syntax syntax C++ object model

9 Modeling in RePast 9 Recursive Porous Agent Simulation Toolkit RePast is an open-source software framework for creating agent-based simulations using the Java programming language Initially developed by the Social Science Research Computing at the University of Chicago since January 2000: Modeled on Swarm but easier to use and better documented

10 RePast framework 10 Controlling simulations Displaying behavior Charting Managing parameters

11 Course logistics 11 Prerequisites: No programming experience needed but obviously helpful Grading: Four sets of exercises Final tournament Resources: Course web page

12 Readings on Java 12 Eckel, Bruce Thinking in Java. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall. See also: Schildt, Herbert Java 2: A Beginner s Guide. Osborne McGraw Hill. See also Sun s Java Tutorial:

13 General readings on agent-based modeling 13 Axelrod, Robert The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Casti, John L Would-Be Worlds: How Simulation Is Changing the Frontiers of Science. New York: Wiley. Cederman, Lars-Erik Emergent Actors in World Politics: How States and Nations Develop and Dissolve. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Epstein, Joshua M. and Robert Axtell Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science From the Bottom Up. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. Holland, John H Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.

14 Course schedule 14 October 19: Introduction October 26: Examples of agent-based models in the social sciences November 2: The principles of agent-based modeling November 9: Java Primer I November 16: Java Primer II November 23: Java Primer III November 30: A hand-crafted agent-based model December 7: Introduction to the Iterated Prisoner s Dilemma December 14: RePast Introduction and Tutorial I December 21: RePast Tutorial II January 11: RePast Tutorial III January 18: Emergent-structure models January 25: Emergent-network models February 1: Emergent-actor models February 8: TBA

15 Gearing up Hardware Windows computer with Pentium II, 400MHz, 256MB RAM, 150MB disk space or Macintosh running OS X or Linux / Unix Software (all free!) Java RePast IntelliJ IDEA (or other development environment) Installation guide (see link to Models on class web page)! 15