Key Components of Mobile Device -A whole new Era for emmc- Memory and Storage Division Sean Yang June 5 th, 2014

Transcription

1 Key Components of Mobile Device -A whole new Era for emmc- Memory and Storage Division Sean Yang June 5 th, 214

2 NAND Demand Outlook: Majority from Mobile Device NAND demand momentum continued with strong mobile and enterprise applications. Smartphone and tablet consumption has been dominated over past 4 years. Unit: 2GB M equiv. Demand Bit Volume Demand by Application 3, 1% 25, 8% 2, 15, 1, 5, 6% 4% 2% Tablet Handset E % E June, 214 Page 2

3 emmc Market Overview-1 emmc market grows along with solid mobile devices. Unit: 2GB M equiv. 3, emmc Consumption(%) Unit: Million 2,5 WW Handset 2, 25, 1,5 Smartphone 1,2 2, 1, , -Total NAND Demand --emmc Demand , 5, 25% 23% 16% 1% Unit: Million Tablet_non ipad E E WW Tablet June, 214 Page 3

4 emmc Market Overview-2 Smartphone and tablet are dominating emmc market. Raising middle/low-end models drives up 8GB portion. Consumption by Application emmc Shipment by Density 1% 1% 8% 8% 6% 6% 64GB 32GB 4% 4% 16GB 8GB 2% 2% 4GB 2GB % % Smartphone E-Reader Media Tablet Other Applications June, 214 Page 4

5 emmc & emcp Pricing Trend High density emmc/emcp price drops more than low density ones. emcp margin is higher than emmc due to solid mdram pricing. $25 emmc Price Forecast $25 emcp Price Forecast $2 $2 $15 $15 $1 $1 $5 $5 $- 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F $- 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F 32GB emmc 8GB emmc 16GB emmc 4GB emmc emcp(4+4) emcp(4+8) emcp(16+8) June, 214 Page 5

6 Roadmap for 214 and 215New-Generation emmc emmc(5.v) will replace emmc(4.5v) from 2Q14 for 214 new AP platform. 1ynm-class emmc is the mainstream product for 2H14 and early 1H Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 19nm emmc/emcp(5.v) Source: Company data, complied by DRAMeXchange,June214 16nm emmc/emcp(5.v) 1ynm emmc/emcp(4.5v) 1ynm emmc/emcp(5.v) 1znm emmc/emcp(5.v) 16nm emmc(5.v) 19nm emmc/emcp(4.5v) A-19nm emmc/emcp(5.v) 1znm emmc/emcp(5.v) 2nm emmc/emcp(4.5v) 2nm emmc/emcp(5.v) 16nm emmc/emcp(5.v) June, 214 Page 6

7 Roadmap for TLC-base emmc Schedule Samsung has strongly promoted TLC-Basis emmc from 213. Other NAND makers TLC-Basis emmc will be unveiled from 3Q14, aimed for low price devices. Source: Company data, complied by DRAMeXchange,June Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 3-Bits-Cell emmc/emcp 3-Bits Client SSD 3-Bits Cell Enterprise SSD 3-Bits-Cell emmc/emcp 3-Bits-Cell Clint SSD 3-Bits Cell emmc/emcp 3-Bits Cell Client SSD 3-Bits-Cell emmc/emcp 3-Bits-Cell Clint SSD 3-Bits Cell emmc/emcp 3-Bits -Cell Client SSD June, 214 Page 7

8 Storage Design in Mobile Device: emmc or emcp SLC-MCP Mobile DRAM SLC-NAND Application Processor Baseband Feature Phone emcp Mobile DRAM emmc Application Processor Baseband Middle/Low Smartphone emmc w POP emmc Mobile DRAM Application Processor Baseband Premium Smartphone June, 214 Page 8

9 emmc in Mobile Device: A Common Standard emmc is the standard storage design among major AP platforms. LPDDR3+eMMC5. is replacing LPDDR2+eMMC4.5 in 214 cross different AP segments. High-End MSM8994 LPDDR4+eMMC5. MSM8974 LPDDR3+eMMC4.5 MT6595 LPDDR3+eMMC5. MT6592 LPDDR3+eMMC4.5 Exynos 5433 LPDDR3+eMMC5. Exynos 5422 LPDDR3+eMMC5. RK3288 LPDDR3+eMMC5. RK3188 LPDDR2+eMMC4.5 Cherry Trail-Type4 LPDDR3+eMMC5. Moorefield Z35XX LPDDR3+eMMC5. Middle-End MSM8936, MSM8939 LPDDR3+eMMC5. MSM8926, MSM8928 LPDDR3+eMMC4.5 MT6591, MT6732 LPDDR3+eMMC5. MT6588, MT6582 LPDDR3+eMMC4.5 Exynos 526 LPDDR3+eMMC5. RK328A DDR3+eMMC4.5 RK326 DDR3+eMMC4.5 Cherry Trail-Type3 LPDDR3+eMMC4.5 Bay Trail-Z37XX LPDDR3+eMMC4.5 Low-End MSM8916(QRD) LPDDR3+eMMC5. MT6571 LPDDR2+eMMC4.5 RK2928 DDR3+eMMC4.5 Cherry Trail-Type3 DDR3+eMMC4.5 MSM 8X12(QRD) LPDDR2+eMMC4.5 MT6572 LPDDR2+eMMC4.5 RK2926 DDR3+eMMC4.5 Bay Trail-CRZ37XX LPDDR3+eMMC4.5 Source: Company data, complied by DRAMeXchange,June214 June, 214 Page 9

10 emmc in Mobile Device: A Common Standard emmc is widely applied for better performance and advanced O.S. emmc % in Smartphone emmc % in Tablet Unit: Million Unit: Million % 43% 51% 64% 7% 63% 65% 71% 74% 76% 8% 81% 8 24% 46% 48% 46% 53% 59% 52% 58% 58% 59% 6% 6 2% Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14F 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14F June, 214 Page 1

11 Smartphone: Weak 1Q14 and Low-End Drives 2Q14 1Q14 smartphone drops 6%qoq for seasonality. 2Q14 pick-up from low-end models. Middle/Low-end models are carrying the catalyst in 214. (6% in 213-8% in 214) Unit: Million Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F High-end Smartphone Middle-end Smartphone Low-end Smartphone June, 214 Page 11

12 emmc is Penetrating from Top to Bottom Slowing emmc content growth is attributed by middle-low end devices. Traditional MCP is replaced by emmc or emcp for new Android O.S and apps. Unit: Million Avg. emmc Content (GB) Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F Smartphone in emmc Smartphone in MCP Smartphone in Discrete NAND June, 214 Page 12

13 Tablet: Market Continues to Raise with Limited Content Growth. 1H14 tablet demand is muted, only 2%HoH compared with 1H13. Overall demand picks up from 3Q14 for new models unveiled. Tablet emmc content declined in 214 due to ultra-low price tablet raise. Raw NAND is still popular among Chinese white-box for cost concern. Unit: Million Avg. emmc Content (GB) 25 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F Tablet in emmc Tablet in Discrete NAND-White Box Tablet in Discrete NAND June, 214 Page 13

14 WW emmc+emcp Market Share in Samsung SanDisk SK Hynix Toshiba Micron Kingston Others Vendor Samsung(19nm) SanDisk(19nm) SK Hynix(2nm) Toshiba(19nm) Micron(2nm) Kingston(19nm) Others Controller House In-House In-House SMI In-House Phison Phison SMI, Skymedi, Phison, etc 77mn emmc units Samsung is leading with strong position in emmc and emcp, leveraged Samsung smartphone. SanDisk has most diversified customer portfolios than any other emmc vendors. 3 rd -party controller houses will find it difficult to compete with in-house solution. June, 214 Page 14

15 WW emmc+emcp Market Share in Samsung SanDisk SK Hynix Toshiba Micron Kingston Others Vendor Samsung(19nm) SanDisk(1ynm) SK Hynix(16nm) Toshiba(A19nm) Micron(16nm) Kingston(A19nm) Others Controller House In-House In-House In-House, SMI In-House In-House Phison SMI, Skymedi, Phison, etc 1,1mn emmc units emmc Market share pattern remains stable. In-House Solutions are dominating. TWN vendors are narrowing to supplementary role. June, 214 Page 15

16 emmc is Expanding to More Applications emmc gradually penetrates into consumer and emerging devices with affordable price by migration. Unit: 1GB M equiv. 5, 4, $1.6 $.99 $.81 $.74 $.66 $.66 Chromebook and low-price laptop Chromebook is up to 6mn from 2.5mn in 213. Strong demand accelerated by Google. 9% of Chromebook will adopt 16GB/32GB emmc. 2. Low-Price laptop with touch function is supported by Microsoft and Intel. emmc is designed for Bay Trail-T platform. 3, 2, $.69 emmc Price per GB $.6 $.53 $.48 $.51 $.46 Smart TV 1. Smart TV required emmc (2GB-8GB) for preloaded apps and contents. HQ content (i.e. 4K2K can enhance density) will help to boost content per box). 2. itv may trigger high density content for next generation smart TV. Wearable Device 1, 1. emmc is recommended for middle to premium segment for data and O.S. storage. 2. With limited space at PCB board, emcp is a must and Packaged-On-Packaged with AP. 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14F June, 214 Page 16

17 Key Takeaways Market emmc market continues to grow along with solid upward momentum from smartphone and tablet. Most vendors will come up with TLC-Basis emmc/emcp from 2H14 to cope with solid demand from middle/low end mobile devices. emmc content-per-box growth could be challenging given raising middle/low end smartphone and ultra-low-price tablets. Been widely adopted in smartphone and tablet, emmc begins penetrating into emerging applications such as notebook, smart TV and wearable device from 214. June, 214 Page 17

18 Thanks June, 214 Page 18