HDD Market Update: Steadier, Simpler Times, or More of the Same? September 2007

Transcription

1 HDD Market Update: Steadier, Simpler Times, or More of the Same? September 2007

2 Topics HDD Industry Update 2007 forecast adjustments Component market updates What is driving storage demand? SSD/flash: is the threat real? Conclusions

3 HDD Industry Update 2007 shipments have tracked as expected CE continues to disappoint, or has it? SSD/flash threat growing Consolidation is the buzzword Seagate/Maxtor, WD/Komag Is there more on the HDD front? Still too many media suppliers? Overall, the business is normal

4 2007 Forecast Adjustments Desktop PC market as expected Slightly stronger mobile computing demand capacities mirroring desktop No surprises in enterprise totals Quicker SFF adoption, SAS rising fast CE reevaluation DVR/PVR solid in US, Japan, slower elsewhere Game consoles and HDDs have hit speed bump PMP life expectancy?

5 Original 2007 Forecast Computing-driven demand throughout CE portion >20% in 07 to 27% by engine for growth notebooks! 2.5 to surpass 3.5 by end of forecast 1.8 -and and-below weak Units (M) " Computing 2.5" Computing 1.8" Computing 3.5" CE 2.5" CE <=1.8" CE

6 Revised 2007 Forecast 07 reduced 3% - to 486 million CE portion >20% in 07 growing to 24% by outlook bolstered notebook growth! Roughly reduced each year by 4%, mainly in CE Units (M) <=1.8 demand changing " Computing 2.5" Computing 1.8" Computing 3.5" CE 2.5" CE <=1.8" CE

7 Seasonality is Here to Stay 24% HDD Quarterly Shipment % Change ( '07) Source: Trend FOCUS, Inc. 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% '98 '98 '98 '98 '99 '99 '99 '99 '00 '00 '00 '00 '01 '01 '01 '01 '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 '04 '04 '04 '05 '05 '05 '05 '06 '06 '06 '06 '07 '07-4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% -16% -18% SDAS - % Change

8 HDD Growth Computing Market Units (M) Traditional PC market still growing Mobile market surging ahead of desktop Average capacity growing Mobile society STILL needs some form of PC Desktops NOT dead e Desktop Mobile Enterprise

9 HDD Growth External Market Units (M) GB External HDD market taking off Used in both computing, CE <=2.5 externals gaining Video, music content grows exponentially every year Much higher capacity than embedded HDDs Margins shrinking looking more like (traditional) HDD market e 0 Shipments Avg Capacity Source: TFI, Seagate

10 HDD Growth CE Market Units (M) CE market evolving Inflection point is going to come, but when? DVR/PVR will be a primary market MP3, Auto navigation, DVC/DSC, other applications are small. But add up to fuel growth e 3.5" 2.5" 1.8" <=1.0"

11 How to View CE After 7 Years Hype has outpaced results but STILL an important piece of the growth outlook PVR/DVR has been frustrating but promise is intoxicating for both 3.5 and gaming, AIS, MFP, now some PVR ipod most visible soon to be invisible in a flash?

12 Is SSD a Legitimate Threat? Short-term, term, impact not significant Longer-term, the threat grows for small HDDs But, there are two key assumptions NAND flash doubling in density, halving in price annually NAND technology sustains and then transitions easily in

13 SSD vs. HDD - The Winner Is 2.5" SSD Capacity (GB) ASP $46 $450 $/GB $0.58 $14.06 Avg transfer rate - Read 42 MB/s 67 MB/s - Write 42 MB/s 47 MB/s Avg access time 12 ms 0.11 ms MTBF 1,200,000 2,000,000 Shock - Operating 300G 1,500G - Non operating 900G 1,500G Acoustic 2.1 db 0 db Power (Read/Write) 1.9W/2.3W 0.95W/0.95W Battery life min

14 Examples of PCs with Hybrid, SSD Asustek 40 GB 1.8" SSD $549 Dell 32GB SSD $ GB Hybrid HDD $139 Fujitsu 16 GB SSD $ GB SSD $1,200 Sony 32 GB SSD $1,000 In general. HALF the storage capacity of an HDD For $500 to $1,200 MORE Toshiba 64GB SSD $800

15 Conclusions SSDs face serious obstacles Cost Advantages worth the premium? Comparing SSD to 1.8 is invalid; 1.8 is niche 2.5 is the real battleground Low-capacity SSD specs still in question OEM relationships Will PC OEMs accept price increases when flash supply is tight? There is ZERO precedent for that with HDDs

16 Conclusions (continued) The winner is. Today HDD Little impact of SSD in traditional PC market <1% of portable PCs are sold with SSD option Tomorrow (~3 yrs) HDD, but facing a growing threat Some markets, apps will be clearly divided Some estimates predict >=50% of portable PCs will be flash- based Tomorrow tomorrow (~7 yrs) HDD pushed up-capacity Flash will permeate small HDD market Penetration into 2.5 market

17 Conclusions (continued) HOWEVER. HDD suppliers still have time for a counter-plan key word is PLAN! New technologies (PMR, patterned media, HAMR, etc ) ) will keep HDD capacities well ahead of SSD While the capacity gap is shrinking, it is still sizable and should remain so for years Flash-based CE devices means more HDD-based storage modules lots of pictures!