Storage Systems Market Analysis Dec 04

Transcription

1 Storage Systems Market Analysis Dec 04

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3 Storage Market & Technologies

4 World Wide Disk Storage Systems Market Analysis Wor ldwi d e D i s k Storage S y s tems Revenu e b y Sup p l i e r, Company Rev $M share% Rev $M share% Rev $M share% HP* 1, % % % IBM 3, % % % EMC 3, % % % Sun Microsystems 1, % % % Dell % % % Hitachi 1, % % % Network Appliance % % % Fujitsu % % % NEC % % % Fujitsu Seimens % % % Other 8, % % % Total 23, , ,279.4 YonY Market Growth -15.2% 1.9% Total External Storage Systems Rev 17, % 13, % 13, % YonY Market Growth -23.8% 3.8% OEM Storage Systems Revenue % 1, % 1, % YonY Growth % 53.9% 32.6% % share of External Storage Systems 4.6% 9.2% 11.8% * For 2Q02-4Q02, HP is reported as the combined entity of HP and Compaq. The data for these companies was reported separately in 1Q02 and all prior years. Source: IDC, 2004 & Company Data

5 External Storage Systems Market Structure Market Segmentation %of External StorageMarket %of External StorageMarket Revenue Revenue Revenue %of External StorageMarket Total External Storage Systems Rev 17, , ,590.9 % YonY Growth -23.8% 3.8% External RAID 14, % 11, % 12, % External JBOD 3, % 1, % 1, % Direct Attached Storage 9, % 5, % 5, % % YonY Growth -36.6% -7.2% Total External Networked Systems Rev 7, % 7, % 8, % Source: IDC, 2004 % YonY Growth -8.6% 12.9% FCSAN 4, % 4, % 5, % % YonY Growth 0.6% 20.1% NAS 1, % 1, % 1, % % YonY Growth -12.7% -1.8% Escon/Ficon SAN 1, % % % % YonY Growth -38.9% -4.8%

6 External Storage Revenue growth projections

7 High Capacity Low Cost Drive Summary

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9 Long Term Trends for RAID Technology Raid Commoditization Basic function well understood RAID, Failover / Fail Back, Drive rebuild, Cache Several low cost vendors with Good Enough Solutions Prices and Costs falling steadily Raid Offload Basic feature function being pushed into silicon Single chip solutions coming from several vendors Ivivity, Istor, Aristos Removes RAID engine as bottleneck Firmware features now in silicon Huge improvement in I/O rates Performance under failure None shipping in Volume yet Large Disk Drive RAID rebuild issues RAID 6 & RAIDn Rebuild times on failure can be measured in days Probability of a second failure relatively high Two failures with traditional RAID protection loses whole data set New Algorithms required

10 RAID Algorithms Protection against failure Total number of disks for N data disks Measure of cost Ratio of total:data (for N=8) Disk ops per write Measures of performance Relative Relative throughput throughput 70R:30W with one disk (for N=8) failed JBOD none N 1 1W 1-1 RAID-5 RAID-1/10 RAID-6 RAID-51 RAID-5&0 Triple mirror any one disk any one disk any two disks any three disks any two disks any two disks N (R+W) N 2 2W N (R+W) N (R+W)+2W N (R+W)+1W N 3 3W Data Disk 1 Data Disk 2 Data Disk 3 Data Disk 4 Horizontal Parity Disk Diagonal Parity Disk Data1 Data2 Data3 Data4 Parity DParity1 Data Data1 Data2 Data3 Parity4 DParity2 Data4 Data Data1 Data2 Parity3 DParity3 Data3 Data4 Data Data1 Parity2 DParity4 Relative throughput per disk

11 Market Overview and Trends Forecasted SCSI to SAS transition drivers Ability to use SATA or SAS depending upon need Parallel vs Serial Architecture Cable Length and bulk Low cost infrastructure Performance 2Gb to 4 Gb transition drivers Ease of Migration (2Gb / 4Gb interchange Performance increase Faster Controllers Faster drives Enclosure trends 2U 3.5 and 2.5 High density Long Term Trends RAID commoditization Raid offload AS and new architectures

12 SCSI to SAS Transition Adoption Curve - SCSI to SAS IDC View IDC View: Internal Drives Internal Arrays Entry RAID Mainstream Gradual take up of SAS in a low cost server environment. Units (000's) SCSI SAS Adoption into arrays by late 05 in direct attach environments. Entry RAID systems emerge Q SAS becomes the mainstream by Q2 2007, with SCSI still commanding a presence. Very gradual and cautious take up of SAS Time Drive Vendor View: SAS drives begin to ramp in Q Adoption Curve - SCSI to SAS Drive Vendor View Internal Internal Entry RAID Drives Arrays Mainstream By Q1/2 2005, SAS drives are common in internal arrays and driving a rapid take up Entry RAID systems are implemented in volume by late 2005 SAS becomes the mainstream by early 2006 Units (000's) SCSI SAS A rapid adoption of SAS due to the performance and cost saving benefits over Parallel SCSI Time

13 FC trends 2Gb to 4Gb FC Disk Adoption Curve Early Mid Late GB/s Units (000's) ? 2GB/s 4GB/s 8GB/s Total FC 1GB/s GB/s GB/s GB/s Date Total FC Numbers from IDC. Volumes for total year not per QTR eg: 4GB FC 2004 is Zero 2005 is 4,625 Breakdown by FC Interface speed Xyratex view

14 Enclosures 2U Enclosures Will likely be the standard for 3.5 SAS enclosures Lower cost per unit Lower increment of capacity Similar to 14/16 on a per slot cost basis Expected to be the standard for 2.5 enterprise systems Very high I/O density (5 to 6k I/Ops) Very low cost per slot (Similar overall cost to 3U wit 2x the slot count) High storage density, With 144GB drives over 4TB in 2U Internal Rack JBOD 2.5 will be 1U with 10 or 12 drives High Density Enclosures coming from several vendors All have design compromise Top Loader (Xyratex, ATA Beast) Front loader (multiple drives per carrier) Power issue for non-sata drives for greater than 40 drives High density for storage Some cost per slot savings

15 Emerging 1U / 2U Storage Appliance Market Integrated Server / Storage Products Network attachment GbE Block and File Management Systems Carrier Carrier Tyan SMDC M3289 1U Enclosures 4 SATA Drives, ATX (P4) Motherboard, IPMI, GbE, Dual Inlet Power. 1/2 TB storage solution Carrier Carrier Carrier Carrier 2U Enclosures 12 SATA Drives, E-ATX (Dual Xeon) Motherboard, IPMI, GbE, Dual redundant Power 4/6TB storage solution Carrier Carrier Carrier Over 25 bids in progress 2005 Revenue and Investment Opportunity Carrier Carrier Carrier Carrier

16 Storage Sub Systems Classes Traditional General Purpose 8, 12, 14 & in FC/SATA/SAS/SCSI High Performance 2.5in Drives SAS & FC Not All Data Is Equal Storage Systems can now be tailored to the Application Bulk Storage 3.5in Drives SATA via SAS or FC

17 Modular Design Strategy: Capacity, Connectivity, Capabilities; C3 Capability C3 Strategy: Capacity, Connectivity and Capability Encryption Compression HA STRATEGY 3: Move along Z-axis Best of Breed Capabilities RAID STRATEGY 1: Move along X-axis Best of Breed Disk Enclosures SAS SATA FCAL SSA SCSI Management SCSI SSA FC iscsi SAS Capacity STRATEGY 2: Connectivity Move along Y-axis Best of Breed Interconnectivity

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19 The Box is changing to meet new requirements Basic IT Infrastructure Lots of different boxes often connected together Multiple interconnect fabrics to develop, install and manage

20 The Box is changing to meet new requirements Basic IT infrastructure Dedicated Processor Systems, External Dedicated Fabrics, Networked Storage

21 The Box is changing to meet new requirements Next Generation IT infrastructure Blade Processor Systems, Internal fabrics, High Density Networked Storage High Density Networked Storage System Shared I/O To LAN, WAN & Storage High Bandwidth Interconnect High Density Processor Blades

22 A New Type of Box Integrated System Issues Power Density 2KW to 10KW per Rack Thermal Management Increased Device Density Server Systems to Blades 3.5 to 2.5 Disk Drives EMI / RFI Constraints High Density Ultra High Speed Devices Gb/sec channels for blades 4-10 Gb/sec for Disk Drives 3-10 Gb/sec for I/O Blade Server Utility Computing Modules Shared I/O & Clustering Switch Shared IO Modules High Density Storage Sub Systems

23 A New Type of Box Integrated System Scalable in the box storage and servers Highly integrated solutions Emerging new middleware Repurposing of processor tasks Low Latency requirements High Performance Interconnect Blade Server Utility Computing Modules Shared I/O & Clustering Switch Shared storage I/O & Storage Resiliency versus Redundancy options Shared IO Modules New Distributed Storage Environments Information Life Cycle Management Object Based Storage Grid Architectures High Density Storage Sub Systems

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25 RS-1600 Current Module Options 2Gb FC-FC RAID 1Gb FC-AL JBOD I/O 1 loop of 16 Drives DB9 Connections Enclosure Management SES 1Gb FC-FC RAID FFx MB Cache Dual Host SFP DB9 Expansion RS232 RAID Mgt Encl Management SES 2Gb FC-AL JBOD I/O 2 loops of 8 Drives SFP Connections Enclosure Management SES IFT 5251F MB Cache 2 Host SFP Expansion SFP RS232 RAID Mgt Ethernet RAID Mgt Encl Management SES Battery Cache Backup 2Gb FC-FC RAID 2Gb FC-FC RAID FFx MB Cache 2 Host SFP Expansion SFP RS232 RAID Mgt Ethernet RAID Mgt* Encl Management SES Battery Cache Backup X MB Cache 2 Host SFP 2 Expansion SFP RS232 RAID Mgt Ethernet RAID Mgt Encl Management SES Battery Cache Backup

26 The Xyratex X24 Controller X24 RAID 5 4x 16 drives Mbs / Sec seq read seq w rite ran read ran w rite Block size in Kbs