Mission Impossible: Surviving Today s Flood of Critical Data

Transcription

1 August 2017 Mission Impossible: Surviving Today s Flood of Critical Data Matt Rutledge Senior Vice President Business Marketing 8/10/17

2 Data Explosion Half a billion terabytes created daily Will continue to exponentially grow

3 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Finite $ $ $ $ $ $ Resources $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Hundreds of avenues to explore Design strategy & research are crucial

4 Seagate s mission possible: Unlock the bits.

5 Seagate s mission possible: Unlock the bits. > FLASH

6 Seagate Focus: Where we can ADD value Customer / Consumer Solutions Integration/Services NAND Components Solutions technology innovation Where Seagate brings value NAND Fabs Device technology innovation approaching 1 year of radical cost change Supplier to Fabs Silicon Crystal

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8 Compute Platform CENTRALIZED 1 st Platform: Mainframe Expanded by Companies Millions of Users Thousands of Apps 3 rd Platform: Mobile-cloud Expanded by People Billions of Users Millions of Apps DISTRIBUTED 2 nd Platform: Client-server Expanded by Systems Hundreds of Millions of Users Tens of Thousands of Apps 4 th Platform: Edge Intelligence Expanded by Machines Trillions of Things Seagate Confidential 8

9 3 RD PLATFORM ECO-SYSTEM / MOBILE-CLOUD Enabling explosive data growth Mobility END POINTS IoT FIVE KEY TRENDS 1. The evolution of data from business background to life-critical 2. Embedded systems and IoT 3. Mobile and real-time data 4. Cognitive / AI systems that change the landscape 5. Security as a critical foundation 16ZB In 2016 CLOUD Cloud / enterprise Big Data Machine Learning 10X Growth in Datasphere 163ZB In 2025 Datasphere: Sum of all data created, captured, and replicated

10 4 TH PLATFORM ECO-SYSTEM / EDGE INTELLIGENCE Real-world solutions will require real time response Machine learning unlocks the power of the Edge Real-World solutions will require Real-Time response CLOUD DATA END POINTS Big Data Machine Learning

11 4 TH PLATFORM ECO-SYSTEM / EDGE INTELLIGENCE Real-world solutions will require real time response and more data will need curation... Only 2% to 3% of the Datasphere created ZB is shipped each year 4 th platform evolution will result in more data management at edge and endpoint

12 It s Seagate s purpose to enable efficiency to store MORE. Seagate s mission possible: Unlock the bits.

13 A Real World Example of Storage Tradeoff CUSTOMERS ONLY HAVE SO MANY DOLLARS TO SPEND ON STORAGE Seagate Market Research

14 NAND supply will likely swing to oversupply by Q and back to undersupply by Q We believe that scaling inefficiencies in 3D NAND, along with more challenging y/y comparisons, will result in sharply lower y/y bit growth Capex per 1% of bit growth has more than doubled for both NAND/DRAM over last three years. Credit Suisse On Lam What are some July of 25th the Pacific Crest Securities May 10th financial analysts saying? A completely different industry cycle [for NAND AND DRAM] We still believe it may take at least five years before China s entrance into the market has a meaningful impact Shinhan Investment On Latest Hynix Results July 26th Yuanta Securities On Latest Hynix Results July 26th

15 We need to find the SIGNAL in all this NOISE

16 Our storage pie just got upset Contract pricing trends, USD $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 January 2015 NAND May 2016 ~$2.30 NAND128 Gb TLC May 2016 Trend = $1 May 2017 NAND May 2017 ~$4.50 Seagate Market Research

17 SSD Average $/GB HAVE WE DIVERGED FROM THE CURVE? Near term cost declines made no sense.. NAND would be negative in More history and log scale to give perspective Is our fundamental curve changing? Seagate Market Research

18 Three future paths for the NAND cost WHAT IS FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGING? Prediction: Any one of the 3 is possible so we must focus on FLEXIBILITY Price/Bit (Log Scale) History Case 1: Catch up Case 3: New slope Case 2: Shift right Future

19 The Economics of NAND 8/10/17

20 Looking at NAND from the long run THE EB SHIPPED CAGR IS SLOWING, BUT STEADY GROWTH 1 71% CAGR 42% CAGR 33% CAGR EB 188% CAGR Petabytes shipped on an exponential scale A straight line = Same CAGR Seagate Market Research 1 Over the last 13 years

21 Looking at NAND from the long run THE EB SHIPPED CAGR IS SLOWING, BUT STEADY GROWTH 1 71% CAGR 42% CAGR 33% CAGR EB 188% CAGR Petabytes shipped on an exponential scale A straight line = Same CAGR Seagate Market Research 1 Over the last 13 years

22 Looking at NAND from the long run NOW DRILL INTO REVENUE VS BYTE GROWTH 42% CAGR 33% CAGR 71% CAGR 188% CAGR Seagate Market Research 1 Over the last 13 years

23 Looking at NAND from the long run NOW DRILL INTO REVENUE VS BYTE GROWTH 16 WW Average: 22.1 cent per GB 17 WW Average: 21.3 cent per GB (Estimate) Exabytes 13 WW Average: 64.2 cent per GB 42% CAGR Revenue 1xnm 3D

24 A lot of expertise is being put into the NAND fabs WE SHOULD CONSIDER THAT WE MAY NEED TO PAY FOR IT CapEx $M 27% 41% CapEx $M 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 3D WFE Capex 2D WFE Capex 70% of CapEx driven by 3D technology 2,000 0 $30B Industry With $8B Capex $??B Industry With $20B Capex Seagate Market Research

25 So what happened over the last year? WHAT IS FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGING YOU ARE HERE Acceptance = Flexibility Is King Graphic source:

26 What does acceptance look like? 8/10/17

27 Seagate Mission In a Flash WHERE WE ARE HEADED Leverage our knowledge & technology with a special focus on datacenters and in particular, cloud service providers... + Support our customers to create an efficient storage eco-system that combines SSDs and hard drives at a system level unleashed with software.. + Engage with NAND Suppliers through decades of customer engagement, customizable support and delightful interaction with customers.. We unlock bits. We unlock customers.

28 Seagate empowers the customer to unlock the bits Customer / Consumer Solutions Integration/Services NAND Components Products, Components, and Standards NAND Fabs Supplier to Fabs More NAND, cheaper! Silicon Crystal

29 Fastest & highest capacity SSD 64TB NVMe SSD Over 13,000 MB/s of throughput New technologies Seagate Nytro Q-Boost features IO Determinism Nytro Q-Boost Demo 7x reduced average read latency 16x reduced max read latency Multi-Stream Nytro Q-Boost Demo 4x Improved WAF & NAND endurance 3x Faster performance

30 New products 3rd gen Nytro 3000 SAS 5th gen Nytro 5000 NVMe RealStor 5005 AFA High-Capacity SAS SSD for Every Workload Ultra-High Density NVMe SSD with Best IOPS/W Industry-Leading Cost for Performance AFA Consumer innovations Seagate FireCuda Gaming SSHD Fastest, Thinnest, Lightest, Biggest LaCie Bolt 3 2TB SSD Unmatched speeds for unlimited user creativity

31 Thank you QUESTIONS? Visit Seagate Booth #505 Learn about Seagate s portfolio of SSDs, flash solutions and system level products for every segment.