Optical Components. A Customers Perspective. Finisar Analyst and Investor Meeting October 7, Adam Carter Director Transceiver Module Group Cisco

Transcription

1 Optical Components A Customers Perspective Adam Carter Director Transceiver Module Group Cisco Finisar Analyst and Investor Meeting October 7,

2 Agenda Network Trends Network Traffic Forecast Growth Drivers Key Growth Areas Data Center Broadband Access Optical Components Trends Attributes Form Factor Evolution 2

3 IP Traffic Burden Shifting to Edge EB/mo 1.8 EB/mo 1.8 EB/mo Core Metro Access EB/mo 17.8 EB/mo 18.5 EB/mo Core Metro Access Metro IP traffic is more than 2X core in 2001 Source: Cisco,

4 Household Bandwidth to Reach 1.1 TB/mo Household Bandwidth Needs in 2010 (U.S.) 1x HDTV + 1x SDTV + 2x PVRs + 1x VoIP w/ 2 Dual Mode Handsets + 1x HSD w/ 2 PCs 1.1 TB per Month 2010 VoIP HSD HSD HDTV Twenty such homes would generate more traffic than traveled the entire Internet backbone in

5 Global Consumer Internet Traffic Growth 20 EB 44% CAGR 2 EB 1 Exabyte = 1,000,000,000 Gbytes Internet traffic in 2012 = 75x traffic in Exabytes per month = 5 billion DVDs Data: Cis co-approaching the Zettabyte Era 5

6 Growth Drivers 44% CAGR over the next 5 years Global Traffic Network Increase Emerging Countries Increased availability of video content Users connected more time to the network 11% CAGR Global Number of Broadband Subscribers Increase 25-30% per year Bandwidth Consumption per Subscriber Increase Traffic crossing the AT&T network Network capacity growth should follow the network traffic growth Data: Dell Oro Group, AT&T 6

7 Agenda Network Trends Network Traffic Forecast Growth Drivers Key Growth Areas Data Center Broadband Access Optical Components Trends Attributes Form Factor Evolution 7

8 Focus areas Data Center and Servers New market dynamics Broadband access Triple Play 8

9 Data Centers - Server Farm Environments Type and Size (IDC classification) Small Data Center Servers Supports a small group of users Servers are remote from primary data center Location: small branch offices 1 2 Interfaces per Server 350-1,000 GE Ports Tier 3 76% of Data Centers Medium Enterprise Medium Data Center ,700 Servers Supports medium to large groups of users Servers are remote from primary data center Location: Regional offices 1-2 Interfaces per Server 1,500-3,400 GE Ports Large Enterprise Large Data Center 2,000 to 2,500 Servers Supports the bulk of enterprise users Servers are consolidated Location: Headquarters (primary), major hub (remote), failover site (backup) 1-4 Interfaces per Server 2,000 10,000 GE Ports Tier 2 17% of Data Centers Server Farm Density Web/Service Provider Very Large ~25,000 Servers Supports Internet users Servers are consolidated across multiple data centers Location: geographically distributed (multiple active-active) 1-4 Interfaces per Server 25, ,000 GE Ports Tier 1 7% of Data Centers 9

10 Historical Adoption of High Speed Ethernet /100 Gb/s IEEE 802.3ba IEEE Standard Approval Timeframe 10 Gb/s IEEE 802.3ae 6 to 7 years IEEE Standard Approved 1M Host Ports 1M Switch Ports 1 Gb/s IEEE 802.3z 1 year IEEE Standard Approved 1M Host Ports 1M Switch Ports 100 Mb/s IEEE 802.3au 0.5 years IEEE Standard Approved 1M Host Ports 1M Switch Ports

11 Servers 40G and 100G adoption forecast Millions 100Gb Capable Switching 40Gb Capable Switching Source: X86 Server Forecast by Ethernet Connection Type IEEE HSSG April 2007 Interim Meeting 11

12 Data Center Market Dynamics Consolidation Virtualization Green Existing Fiber Infrastructure 12

13 Consolidation and Virtualization Consolidation Reduces Operating Expenses Increase level of service Virtualization Better Utilization on existing Capital Assets Reduces power & cooling requirements Virtualization is an enabler of consolidation Automation Simplify Virtualized Environments Enabler of Service Velocity Reduces Risk of Operator Error Results - Consistent, Repeatable Results 13

14 Where does the Power Go? Losses in power generate heat Netw ork Equip, 12% Server, 25% Cooling, 50% Pw r Loss, 10% Lighting, 3% Each watt consumed by IT infrastructure carries a burden factor of 1.8 to 2.5 for power consumption associated with cooling, conversion/distribution and lighting* Sources: EYP Mission Critical Facilities, Cisco IT, Network World, Customer Interviews, APC 14

15 Green A 400,000-server DC = half output of small nuclear power plant U.S. DCs = $4.5 billion for 61 billion kilowatt-hours annually Source: 15

16 Campus: Existing Fiber Infrastructure Fiber core metres (millions) 30,000 27,500 25,000 22,500 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 62MMF 160/500 62MMF 200/500 OM1 50MMF 400/400 50MMF 500/500 OM2 50MMF OM3 SMF 7,500 5,000 2, Data Source : In premises Optical Fiber Installed Base Analysis to 2010; Alan Flatman, April

17 Existing Fiber Infrastructure Source: Alan Flatman-Data Centre Link Survey 17

18 Future Data Center Bandwidth Requirements 1GbE Server Access Three-tier architecture 10GbE Server Access 40/100 GbE Modular Chassis 40/100 GbE 40 GbE 40/100 GbE 10 GbE blade switches (16 servers) or 10/40 GbE ToR (~30-40 servers) 1 GbE Distribution Modular Chassis Top of Rack (1U 48ports) Blade Switch (24-32 ports) 40 GbE blade switches 40/100 GbE ToR 10 GbE 18 Data VLAN

19 Broadband Access technologies Bandwidth in kbps 1G Actual DSL Limit Extrapolation Subscriber migration from ADSL to PON and VDSL Source: Heavy Reading report FTTH Worldwide Market & Technology Forecast,

20 Broadband Access SPs focus: Introduction of new services (TV over broadband) Video = future main driver of bandwidth requirements By 2012 all forms of video = 90% of consumer traffic Source: FTTH Council-The advantages of fiber, Cisco -Approaching the Zettabyte Era 20

21 Agenda Network Trends Network Traffic Forecast Growth Drivers Key Growth Areas Data Center Broadband Access Optical Components Trends Attributes Form Factor Evolution 21

22 Optical components attributes trend Density Gb/cm 2 Capex reduction Capex reduction Opex reduction Cost $/Gb Power Consumption mw/gb 22

23 10G Form factor evolution /8 Xenpak X2 XFP SFP+ 8 Max Ports/Card 16 Max Ports/Card 16 Max Ports/Card 48 Max Ports/Card Higher density 8W 4W W 1W Less power consumption Source: ethernet alliance 23

24 Port shipments forecast 1G Port shipments 10G Port shipments 308 M 15 M 26% CAGR 92% CAGR 77 M 0.3 M Source: Dell Oro Group 24

25 Cisco View: Data Rate Transition Forecast 10G will account for more than 70% of optical components spend in FY10 Source: Cisco-Internal 25

26 Summary Network traffic growth driven by 2 significant factors: Broadband subscribers base expanding at 2 digits growth rate Bandwidth consumption per subscriber growing at 25-30% per year Key growth areas: broadband access and data centers Reduction in capex and opex driving customers buying habits 40GbE and 100GbE will start to deploy in

27 Fasten Your Seat Belts! Source: Y2U.co.uk, Ciena 27

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