FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION

Transcription

1 FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION FOUNDED IN 1945 BY MERVIN FIELD 601 California Street San Francisco, California Tabulations From a Survey of California Likely Voters about the 2016 Presidential Elections - prepared for the - Capitol Alert and the Sacramento Bee July 7,

2 Introduction This volume presents the statistical data developed from a Field Poll survey of likely voters in California about the 2016 presidential elections. The survey was conducted by The Field Poll among a representative sample of 1,635 California adults by telephone June 8-July 2, 2016, of whom 956 were considered likely voters in the November general election. To capture the diversity of the California population, the survey was administered in six languages and dialects English, Spanish, Cantonese, Mandarin, Vietnamese and Korean. Interviewing and Sampling Interviews were administered by telephone by live, professionally-trained interviewers calling from Interviewing Service of America s central location call center in Van Nuys. The overall sample was developed using dual frame random digit dial landline and cell phone methodology to generate telephone listings covering the state of California. Interviewers completed their work using a computer-assisted telephone interviewing (TI) system. TI controls the telephone scripts read to individual respondents by displaying the appropriate questionnaire items and their valid response code alternatives in their proper sequence on computer screens at each interviewer's booth. The interviewer then reads each question aloud to the respondent from the screen and enters each respondent's pre-coded answer category through the keyboard directly to a computer disk. All answers are automatically stored in computer memory. In order to bring hard-to-reach respondents into the survey, up to six attempts were made to each telephone number selected for inclusion into the sample. Callbacks were made at different times and on different days to increase the probability of finding voters available for the interview. Where possible, appointments are made at specified dates and times to maximize convenience and cooperation rates. In this survey, 715 likely voters were interviewed on their cell phone and 241 were interviewed on a landline or other type of telephone. 2

3 Data Processing The data file resulting from TI interviewing is itself virtually error-free. Even so, a final series of data checks were performed by means of a specially designed cleaning program that scrutinizes each respondent record for internally inconsistent information. Once the data were determined to be clean and error-free, the combined landline and cell phone sample was weighted to match demographic, geographic and voter registration estimates of the adult and registered voter populations in California. The weighting process also takes into account the higher probability of reaching respondents who regularly receive calls on both a landline and cell phone. Guide to Reading the Tables The question or questions upon which the data are based is shown at the top of each table. Tables are percentaged vertically with the raw percentage base appearing at the top of each column. The data have been weighted to known parameters of the statewide adult and registered voter populations. All percentages and frequencies reported in each table are therefore weighted tabulations. In instances where percentages are calculated on small bases (e.g., when the base is fewer than 100 respondents) the reader is urged to interpret the data with caution, since results are subject to larger levels of sampling error. Throughout the tables an asterisk is used to denote a value of less than 1/2 of 1%. A hyphen indicates zero value. On some tables the percentages may add to more than 100% due to multiple mentions. s of subgroups used in the tabulations may add to less than the total number of respondents due to some respondents not reporting that characteristic. 3

4 Regional Subgroup Definitions Section Southern : Northern : San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Riverside, San Bernardino, Imperial and Kern counties all other 48 California counties Area Coastal Counties: San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Mateo, San Francisco, Contra Costa, Alameda, Marin, Napa, Solano, Sonoma, Santa Clara, Mendocino, Humboldt, Del Norte Inland counties: Region Los Angeles: Inland Empire: South Coast: Central Valley: SF Bay Area: all other 38 California counties Los Angeles county San Bernardino and Riverside counties San Diego County and Orange counties Butte, Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba San Francisco, Marin, Napa, Sonoma, Solano, Contra Costa, Alameda, Santa Clara, San Mateo California: includes the combined total of the other Southern and Northern California counties listed below: So. : Ventura, Santa Barbara, Imperial and San Luis Obispo No. : Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, Del Norte, El Dorado, Humboldt, Inyo, Lake, Lassen, Mariposa, Mendocino, Monterey, Modoc, Mono, Nevada, Plumas, San Benito, Santa Cruz, Sierra, Siskiyou, Trinity, Tuolumne 4

5 Estimates of Sampling Error In any survey based on a sampling, there is some sampling error introduced into the data by the process of sampling itself. When the sample has been drawn using random processes, it is possible to apply probability principles to determine the potential range of such error. While survey samples of human populations rarely, if ever, meet all of the criteria theoretically required for the application of these principles, it is customary to use them as an approximation of error that is introduced as a result of sampling. The table below shows the range of error associated with samples of various sizes at the 95% confidence level, which is customary for most public opinion surveys. For example, if 50% of the overall sample of 956 likely voters answered yes to a specific question, this statistic would have a sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. This means that there is a 95% chance that had the overall population of likely voters statewide been interviewed using the same questionnaire and methods, the results of such a census would yield a result between 46.8% and 53.2%. The same procedure can be used to estimate the sample error ranges of any other statistic contained in this report. Approximate percentage distribution of replies to question Sample size 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 100 +/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /- 1.9 There are many other possible sources of error other than sampling variability in this and any other public opinion survey. The overall design and execution of the survey minimized the potential for these other sources of error. 5

6 Questions Asked (ASKED OF REGISTERED DEMOCRATS) Which of the following best describes how you feel about Hillary Clinton becoming the Democratic Party's nominee for President enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not upset, or upset? Do you favor Bernie Sanders continuing his campaign for the presidential nomination all the way to the Democratic National Convention in July, or should he step aside before the convention and throw his support to Hillary Clinton? (ASKED OF REGISTERED REPUBLINS) Which of the following best describes how you feel about Donald Trump becoming the Re-publican Party's nominee for President enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not upset, or upset? (ASKED OF ALL LIKELY VOTERS) If the November general election for President were being held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, for whom would you vote Trump or Clinton? (ASKED OF RANDOM SUBSAMPLE OF 495 LIKELY VOTERS) What if the choices in the November general election for President were Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton or Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson? If the election were being held today, for whom would you vote Trump, Clinton or Johnson? (ASKED OF RANDOM SUBSAMPLE OF 461 LIKELY VOTERS) Generally speaking, is your opinion of (Hillary Clinton) (Donald Trump) favorable or unfavorable? 6

7 Q5 (Banner 1) : Registered as Democrat Southern Section Area Region Northern Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County Inland Empire South Coast Central Valley SF Bay Area (total) So. Citizenship Status No. Citizen Non- Citizen Registered Democrat Voter registration/party Registered to vote Registered Registered Republican NPP/other 5. Which of the following best describes how you feel about Hillary Clinton becoming the Democratic Party's nominee for President enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not upset, or upset? Weighted 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % 100.0% % ENTHUSIASTIC 35.2% 35.7% 34.3% 36.2% 31.6% 33.5% 43.2% 39.0% 23.6% 42.7% 26.9% 33.2% 21.5% 35.2% % 35.2% % SATISFIED BUT NOT ENTHUSIASTIC 37.3% 38.4% 35.8% 35.7% 43.0% 38.0% 41.6% 35.3% 42.7% 29.2% 45.4% 41.7% 48.6% 37.3% % 37.3% % DISSATISFIED BUT NOT UPSET 14.3% 15.2% 13.1% 14.7% 13.2% 16.0% 10.8% 18.9% 15.6% 9.0% 17.8% 10.4% 24.2% 14.3% % 14.3% % UPSET % 8.6% 12.9% 10.5% 10.0% 10.0% 4.3% 6.8% 15.0% 14.4% 5.9% 8.9% 3.3% 10.4% % 10.4% % * % 2.1% 3.9% 3.0% 2.2% 2.5% 0.1% - 3.1% 4.6% 4.0% 5.8% 2.4% 2.8% - 2.8% 2.8% % Likely voter in Nov election Field Research Corporation Table 9 7

8 Q5 (Banner 2) : Registered as Democrat Male Female Gender Race/Ethnicity Age Marital Status White non- Hispanic Latino Spanish speaking English speaking Asian/ Pac Isle African- American Married Not married living together Never married Widow/ separated/ divorced Child under 18 in HH 5. Which of the following best describes how you feel about Hillary Clinton becoming the Democratic Party's nominee for President enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not upset, or upset? Weighted 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% ENTHUSIASTIC 35.2% 26.7% 41.4% 36.9% 33.4% 33.8% 33.2% 36.3% 34.7% 17.6% 26.4% 27.6% 45.4% 44.0% 35.5% 27.4% 31.1% 40.8% 29.8% 37.1% SATISFIED BUT NOT ENTHUSIASTIC 37.3% 44.2% 32.2% 33.7% 40.3% 57.9% 31.3% 37.3% 49.5% 35.3% 31.8% 48.1% 35.6% 38.2% 42.4% 43.0% 30.3% 36.3% 34.9% 38.3% DISSATISFIED BUT NOT UPSET 14.3% 16.2% 13.0% 14.6% 18.4% 5.2% 25.1% 14.6% 2.8% 25.8% 23.2% 15.2% 9.4% 6.5% 12.1% 19.4% 21.3% 9.7% 20.5% 12.0% UPSET % 11.6% 9.5% 12.2% 5.7% 3.1% 7.0% 9.4% 10.1% 18.3% 14.0% 7.5% 8.1% 6.8% 8.0% 10.1% 13.2% 9.8% 10.2% 10.6% % 1.2% 4.0% 2.7% 2.2% - 3.3% 2.3% 2.9% 3.0% 4.7% 1.5% 1.5% 4.5% 2.0% - 4.0% 3.3% 4.6% 2.0% Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 10 8

9 Q5 (Banner 3) : Registered as Democrat $22,000 Under - $22,000 $39,999 Household Income FPL Education Political Ideology Tenure Less More Less Some $40,000 $50,000 Post Strongly Moderately Middle than than than H.S. college/ College Moderately Strongly - - $100,000+ graduate conservative ative road conserv- of the Own 138% 138% high graduate trade graduate liberal liberal $49,999 $99,999 work FPL FPL school school 5. Which of the following best describes how you feel about Hillary Clinton becoming the Democratic Party's nominee for President enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not upset, or upset? Weighted 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% ENTHUSIASTIC 35.2% 39.4% 32.2% 36.0% 30.5% 36.0% 36.0% 34.9% 44.5% 25.3% 35.9% 34.1% 41.1% 58.1% 30.4% 31.9% 29.5% 43.9% 37.6% 33.4% SATISFIED BUT NOT ENTHUSIASTIC 37.3% 35.3% 33.7% 40.9% 34.1% 43.2% 39.1% 36.8% 41.8% 36.1% 36.2% 39.7% 34.6% 18.3% 37.3% 45.3% 44.6% 22.8% 38.0% 36.1% DISSATISFIED BUT NOT UPSET 14.3% 13.1% 17.8% 8.5% 14.7% 13.5% 14.3% 14.4% 8.0% 18.4% 13.1% 16.9% 12.3% 13.8% 12.7% 13.2% 13.9% 16.9% 10.8% 18.6% UPSET % 7.0% 12.7% 14.6% 17.5% 6.2% 5.8% 11.6% 3.4% 13.9% 10.7% 7.5% 12.0% 9.8% 18.9% 7.6% 10.2% 12.6% 10.4% 9.6% * % 5.2% 3.5% - 3.3% 1.0% 4.8% 2.3% 2.3% 6.3% 4.2% 1.7% % 2.0% 1.8% 3.8% 3.2% 2.3% Rent/ Field Research Corporation Table 11 9

10 Q6 (Banner 1) : Registered as Democrat (English/Spanish) Southern Section Area Region Northern Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County Inland Empire South Coast Central Valley SF Bay Area (total) So. Citizenship Status No. Citizen Non- Citizen Registered Democrat Voter registration/party Registered to vote Registered Registered Republican NPP/other 6. Do you favor Bernie Sanders continuing his campaign for the presidential nomination all the way to the Democratic National Convention in July, or should he step aside before the convention and throw his support to Hillary Clinton? Weighted % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % 100.0% % CONTINUE TO THE CONVENTION 38.4% 39.8% 36.5% 37.9% 40.0% 38.9% 41.1% 42.1% 41.2% 34.8% 36.1% 38.8% 33.8% 38.4% % 38.4% % STEP ASIDE AND SUPPORT CLINTON 52.6% 49.6% 56.8% 52.7% 52.0% 50.4% 53.0% 52.2% 50.4% 59.1% 48.5% 34.9% 60.3% 52.6% % 52.6% % % 10.6% 6.7% 9.3% 8.0% 10.7% 5.9% 5.7% 8.4% 6.1% 15.4% 26.4% 5.9% 9.0% - 9.0% 9.0% % Likely voter in Nov election Field Research Corporation Table 12 10

11 Q6 (Banner 2) : Registered as Democrat (English/Spanish) Male Female Gender Race/Ethnicity Age Marital Status White non- Hispanic Latino Spanish speaking English speaking Asian/ Pac Isle African- American Married Not married living together Never married Widow/ separated/ divorced Child under 18 in HH 6. Do you favor Bernie Sanders continuing his campaign for the presidential nomination all the way to the Democratic National Convention in July, or should he step aside before the convention and throw his support to Hillary Clinton? Weighted % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% CONTINUE TO THE CONVENTION 38.4% 42.1% 35.7% 37.5% 45.8% 31.2% 53.3% 31.7% 25.8% 62.0% 52.7% 34.3% 28.6% 26.2% 32.3% 31.8% 53.3% 32.6% 45.9% 35.6% STEP ASIDE AND SUPPORT CLINTON 52.6% 52.5% 52.6% 52.8% 46.4% 60.2% 39.4% 60.4% 66.0% 29.0% 44.8% 56.7% 59.4% 65.7% 57.6% 60.4% 39.0% 59.0% 47.2% 54.9% % 5.4% 11.6% 9.7% 7.7% 8.6% 7.3% 7.9% 8.2% 9.0% 2.4% 9.0% 12.0% 8.1% 10.1% 7.8% 7.7% 8.4% 6.9% 9.4% Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 13 11

12 Q6 (Banner 3) : Registered as Democrat (English/Spanish) $22,000 Under - $22,000 $39,999 Household Income FPL Education Political Ideology Tenure Less More Less Some $40,000 $50,000 Post Strongly Moderately Middle than than than H.S. college/ College Moderately Strongly - - $100,000+ graduate conservative ative road conserv- of the Own 138% 138% high graduate trade graduate liberal liberal $49,999 $99,999 work FPL FPL school school 6. Do you favor Bernie Sanders continuing his campaign for the presidential nomination all the way to the Democratic National Convention in July, or should he step aside before the convention and throw his support to Hillary Clinton? Weighted % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% CONTINUE TO THE CONVENTION 38.4% 45.8% 46.3% 38.7% 42.7% 26.1% 43.3% 37.1% 28.9% 49.6% 46.1% 34.5% 28.7% 17.5% 47.6% 38.1% 35.5% 43.4% 31.2% 45.9% STEP ASIDE AND SUPPORT CLINTON 52.6% 46.9% 42.5% 51.8% 49.3% 67.3% 49.0% 53.5% 56.3% 45.8% 44.8% 57.8% 61.0% 73.1% 49.5% 53.0% 52.0% 50.5% 60.7% 44.5% % 7.2% 11.2% 9.6% 8.0% 6.6% 7.8% 9.3% 14.8% 4.6% 9.1% 7.7% 10.4% 9.5% 3.0% 8.9% 12.5% 6.0% 8.1% 9.6% Rent/ Field Research Corporation Table 14 12

13 Q7 (Banner 1) : Registered as Republican Southern Section Area Region Northern Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County Inland Empire South Coast Central Valley SF Bay Area (total) So. Citizenship Status No. Citizen Non- Citizen Registered Democrat Voter registration/party Registered to vote Registered Registered Republican NPP/other 7. Which of the following best describes how you feel about Donald Trump becoming the Republican Party's nominee for President enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not upset, or upset? Weighted 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % % % ENTHUSIASTIC 32.5% 27.5% 40.3% 32.3% 33.0% 24.9% 16.0% 37.5% 43.5% 43.3% 24.3% 29.3% 15.1% 32.5% % % % SATISFIED BUT NOT ENTHUSIASTIC 27.2% 27.0% 27.5% 21.7% 36.6% 19.0% 49.8% 19.8% 27.1% 20.9% 37.8% 32.0% 48.7% 27.2% % % % DISSATISFIED BUT NOT UPSET 17.7% 19.8% 14.3% 21.9% 10.4% 23.0% 11.7% 21.1% 10.7% 15.9% 23.0% 20.0% 28.5% 17.7% % % % UPSET % 22.0% 15.8% 22.0% 15.4% 30.4% 15.0% 19.6% 15.1% 19.9% 11.7% 13.8% 7.7% 19.6% % % % % 3.8% 2.1% 2.2% 4.7% 2.7% 7.5% 2.0% 3.6% - 3.2% 4.9% - 3.1% - 3.1% - 3.1% - 2.2% Likely voter in Nov election Field Research Corporation Table 15 13

14 Q7 (Banner 2) : Registered as Republican Male Female Gender Race/Ethnicity Age Marital Status White non- Hispanic Latino Spanish speaking English speaking Asian/ Pac Isle African- American Married Not married living together Never married Widow/ separated/ divorced Child under 18 in HH 7. Which of the following best describes how you feel about Donald Trump becoming the Republican Party's nominee for President enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not upset, or upset? Weighted 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% ENTHUSIASTIC 32.5% 26.2% 39.0% 33.2% 23.8% % 35.3% % 41.8% 24.0% 28.8% 37.0% 34.4% 23.2% 6.4% 35.7% 26.1% 34.7% SATISFIED BUT NOT ENTHUSIASTIC 27.2% 35.0% 19.2% 26.7% 26.4% 30.0% 25.8% 26.0% 29.8% 8.9% 13.3% 30.2% 31.1% 32.5% 27.2% 42.6% 26.8% 27.7% 17.6% 30.3% DISSATISFIED * * BUT NOT UPSET 17.7% 15.8% 19.6% 17.3% 22.2% 59.0% 16.2% 16.7% 1.3% 22.7% 6.8% 30.2% 19.8% 14.8% 18.6% 5.3% 20.8% 15.9% 23.0% 15.9% UPSET % 17.8% 21.4% 21.0% 20.8% % 13.3% 68.9% 38.6% 36.5% 10.6% 17.8% 13.0% 17.0% 28.9% 43.0% 15.9% 28.8% 16.5% % 5.3% 0.8% 1.8% 6.7% 11.0% 6.0% 8.8% - 6.6% 1.6% 5.1% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% - 3.0% 4.7% 4.5% 2.6% Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 16 14

15 Q7 (Banner 3) : Registered as Republican $22,000 Under - $22,000 $39,999 Household Income FPL Education Political Ideology Tenure Less More Less Some $40,000 $50,000 Post Strongly Moderately Middle than than than H.S. college/ College Moderately Strongly - - $100,000+ graduate conservative ative road conserv- of the Own 138% 138% high graduate trade graduate liberal liberal $49,999 $99,999 work FPL FPL school school 7. Which of the following best describes how you feel about Donald Trump becoming the Republican Party's nominee for President enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not upset, or upset? Weighted 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% ENTHUSIASTIC 32.5% 40.3% 36.0% 31.7% 18.2% 33.1% 31.4% 32.8% 52.1% 27.9% 33.2% 42.8% 17.3% 40.2% 29.0% 25.3% 30.5% 47.1% 37.1% 21.4% SATISFIED * BUT NOT ENTHUSIASTIC 27.2% 28.7% 31.4% 21.5% 32.4% 24.7% 33.2% 26.5% 38.7% 27.3% 29.5% 20.6% 32.0% 35.5% 28.4% 20.5% 3.9% % 17.9% DISSATISFIED BUT NOT UPSET 17.7% 7.3% 14.2% 24.3% 21.1% 17.8% 9.8% 18.8% 9.2% 29.1% 10.5% 18.8% 20.5% 12.5% 22.3% 20.4% 20.4% % 24.7% UPSET % 20.7% 18.5% 22.5% 26.1% 19.0% 20.9% 19.1% % 24.6% 13.7% 26.6% 10.4% 14.0% 31.1% 45.2% 30.3% 12.6% 33.8% % 3.0% % 5.4% 4.7% 2.9% - 3.1% 2.1% 4.1% 3.6% 1.3% 6.3% 2.7% % 3.6% 2.3% Rent/ Field Research Corporation Table 17 15

16 Q9a (Banner 1) : Likely voters Southern Section Area Region Northern Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County Inland Empire South Coast Central Valley SF Bay Area (total) So. Citizenship Status No. Citizen Non- Citizen Registered Democrat Voter registration/party Registered to vote Registered Registered Republican NPP/other 9a. If the November general election for President were being held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, for whom would you vote Trump or Clinton? Weighted 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% TRUMP % 25.3% 31.9% 23.5% 39.8% 15.5% 31.9% 39.3% 46.3% 22.5% 27.9% 28.4% 27.3% 28.1% % 4.9% 71.7% 20.2% 28.1% CLINTON % 60.6% 53.1% 61.7% 46.5% 71.3% 51.1% 44.6% 41.3% 63.0% 56.1% 62.7% 48.7% 57.5% % 87.3% 16.4% 48.4% 57.5% DO NOT READ NEITHER 7.6% 7.3% 8.1% 7.1% 9.2% 4.9% 12.0% 9.9% 7.9% 6.9% 8.8% 5.3% 12.7% 7.6% - 7.6% 5.0% 6.1% 15.0% 7.6% UNDECIDED % 6.7% 6.9% 7.7% 4.6% 8.3% 5.0% 6.1% 4.5% 7.6% 7.3% 3.6% 11.3% 6.8% - 6.8% 2.8% 5.8% 16.4% 6.8% Likely voter in Nov election Field Research Corporation Table 21 16

17 Q9a (Banner 2) : Likely voters Male Female Gender Race/Ethnicity Age Marital Status White non- Hispanic Latino Spanish speaking English speaking Asian/ Pac Isle African- American Married Not married living together Never married Widow/ separated/ divorced Child under 18 in HH 9a. If the November general election for President were being held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, for whom would you vote Trump or Clinton? Weighted 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% TRUMP % 32.4% 24.4% 37.0% 11.9% % 26.6% 3.1% 12.7% 26.3% 27.9% 26.8% 40.0% 37.6% 8.8% 13.3% 26.8% 23.2% 30.3% CLINTON % 52.7% 61.5% 48.9% 74.8% 91.3% 68.6% 55.0% 87.2% 69.3% 55.4% 52.1% 60.9% 49.9% 49.0% 71.7% 69.3% 63.0% 59.0% 56.8% DO NOT READ NEITHER 7.6% 9.1% 6.4% 9.3% 6.5% 3.6% 7.7% 3.7% 6.1% 11.1% 9.4% 10.5% 7.5% 3.3% 7.1% 18.2% 9.2% 5.1% 12.0% 6.0% UNDECIDED % 5.9% 7.6% 4.8% 6.8% 5.1% 7.4% 14.7% 3.6% 7.0% 8.9% 9.5% 4.8% 6.8% 6.4% 1.3% 8.2% 5.2% 5.8% 6.9% Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 22 17

18 Q9a (Banner 3) : Likely voters $22,000 Under - $22,000 $39,999 Household Income FPL Education Political Ideology Tenure Less More Less Some $40,000 $50,000 Post Strongly Moderately Middle than than than H.S. college/ College Moderately Strongly - - $100,000+ graduate conservative ative road conserv- of the Own 138% 138% high graduate trade graduate liberal liberal $49,999 $99,999 work FPL FPL school school 9a. If the November general election for President were being held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, for whom would you vote Trump or Clinton? Weighted 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% TRUMP % 18.8% 30.9% 22.9% 27.8% 33.1% 14.6% 30.7% 14.7% 22.7% 29.3% 34.1% 24.0% 70.0% 43.2% 24.5% 5.5% 2.1% 36.4% 16.7% CLINTON % 67.0% 56.7% 56.7% 56.5% 56.7% 73.2% 54.4% 76.9% 60.9% 55.8% 51.5% 62.8% 17.4% 41.8% 61.2% 76.9% 87.9% 50.2% 67.8% DO NOT READ NEITHER 7.6% 7.0% 6.1% 11.3% 10.9% 4.7% 4.1% 8.3% 3.8% 9.4% 7.9% 6.9% 7.9% 9.3% 9.7% 6.2% 9.0% 6.8% 6.5% 9.2% UNDECIDED % 7.1% 6.3% 9.1% 4.7% 5.4% 8.1% 6.6% 4.7% 7.0% 7.0% 7.4% 5.4% 3.4% 5.3% 8.0% 8.6% 3.1% 6.9% 6.3% Rent/ Field Research Corporation Table 23 18

19 19

20 Q10 (Banner 1) : Likely voters (Form A) Southern Section Area Region Northern Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County Inland Empire South Coast Central Valley SF Bay Area (total) So. Citizenship Status No. Citizen Non- Citizen Registered Democrat Voter registration/party Registered to vote Registered Registered Republican NPP/other 10. What if the choices in the November general election for President were Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton or Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson? If the election were being held today, for whom would you vote Trump, Clinton Weighted % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% TRUMP % 22.9% 29.2% 21.6% 37.0% 11.3% 29.5% 34.5% 42.9% 20.6% 33.4% 40.0% 27.5% 25.6% % 6.1% 64.3% 18.4% 25.6% CLINTON % 49.7% 50.6% 55.1% 36.2% 63.7% 36.9% 36.9% 31.4% 60.4% 48.5% 34.0% 61.5% 50.1% % 81.1% 10.2% 37.7% 50.1% JOHNSON % 8.9% 10.5% 7.9% 14.3% 6.1% 13.4% 11.9% 17.7% 8.6% 4.1% 8.6% - 9.6% - 9.6% 5.5% 11.8% 14.6% 9.6% UNDECIDED 14.7% 18.4% 9.7% 15.4% 12.5% 18.9% 20.2% 16.8% 8.0% 10.5% 14.1% 17.4% 11.1% 14.7% % 7.2% 13.7% 29.3% 14.7% Likely voter in Nov election Field Research Corporation Table 27 20

21 Q10 (Banner 2) : Likely voters (Form A) Male Female Gender Race/Ethnicity Age Marital Status White non- Hispanic Latino Spanish speaking English speaking Asian/ Pac Isle African- American Married Not married living together Never married Widow/ separated/ divorced Child under 18 in HH 10. What if the choices in the November general election for President were Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton or Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson? If the election were being held today, for whom would you vote Trump, Clinton Weighted % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% TRUMP * % 30.1% 21.3% 33.4% 9.2% % 24.1% 4.5% 11.2% 26.4% 17.1% 26.4% 37.2% 36.4% 2.5% 9.8% 20.6% 25.1% 26.1% CLINTON % 45.0% 55.1% 40.4% 71.1% 85.5% 64.9% 51.7% 79.8% 58.6% 46.2% 45.1% 52.9% 46.1% 42.3% 46.9% 56.5% 63.9% 54.4% 48.6% JOHNSON * % 12.6% 6.7% 13.6% 5.2% 1.6% 6.8% 1.0% 3.9% 18.5% 13.3% 14.4% 8.3% 1.1% 9.6% 8.1% 17.2% 3.8% 10.8% 9.3% UNDECIDED 14.7% 12.3% 17.0% 12.6% 14.4% 12.9% 15.1% 23.2% 11.8% 11.7% 14.0% 23.3% 12.3% 15.5% 11.7% 42.5% 16.5% 11.6% 9.7% 15.9% Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 28 21

22 Q10 (Banner 3) : Likely voters (Form A) $22,000 Under - $22,000 $39,999 Household Income FPL Education Political Ideology Tenure Less More Less Some $40,000 $50,000 Post Strongly Moderately Middle than than than H.S. college/ College Moderately Strongly - - $100,000+ graduate conservative ative road conserv- of the Own 138% 138% high graduate trade graduate liberal liberal $49,999 $99,999 work FPL FPL school school 10. What if the choices in the November general election for President were Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton or Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson? If the election were being held today, for whom would you vote Trump, Clinton Weighted % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% TRUMP % 13.4% 22.5% 23.4% 22.2% 32.2% 14.0% 27.9% 6.5% 28.1% 20.4% 33.4% 26.0% 65.7% 35.7% 17.9% 7.8% 3.9% 32.1% 16.3% CLINTON % 65.8% 51.8% 49.0% 47.2% 49.5% 69.7% 46.2% 65.3% 54.5% 50.9% 41.6% 55.0% 18.2% 40.8% 53.1% 61.2% 79.6% 46.7% 54.4% JOHNSON % 2.4% 4.6% 19.1% 13.1% 9.5% 2.5% 11.0% 3.5% 2.7% 7.8% 14.5% 10.2% 7.4% 10.3% 12.2% 16.7% 4.5% 8.9% 11.1% UNDECIDED 14.7% 18.5% 21.2% 8.5% 17.6% 8.9% 13.7% 14.9% 24.7% 14.7% 20.9% 10.6% 8.8% 8.7% 13.2% 16.9% 14.3% 12.0% 12.2% 18.2% Rent/ Field Research Corporation Table 29 22

23 Q11a (Banner 1) : Likely voters (Form B) Southern Section Area Region Northern Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County Inland Empire South Coast Central Valley SF Bay Area (total) So. No. Citizen Citizenship Status Non- Citizen Registered Democrat Voter registration/party Registered to vote Registered Registered Republican NPP/other 11a. Generally speaking, is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable? Weighted 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% FAVORABLE 52.8% 57.9% 45.2% 57.4% 41.7% 65.9% 52.0% 43.8% 36.3% 58.5% 44.8% 61.3% 21.8% 52.8% % 77.2% 18.5% 46.6% 52.8% UNFAVORABLE 42.6% 36.7% 51.2% 38.5% 52.2% 29.4% 41.3% 52.0% 57.6% 40.2% 48.3% 30.6% 72.9% 42.6% % 19.9% 81.0% 38.7% 42.6% % 5.4% 3.7% 4.1% 6.1% 4.7% 6.7% 4.2% 6.0% 1.3% 6.9% 8.1% 5.3% 4.7% - 4.7% 2.9% 0.5% 14.7% 4.7% Likely voter in Nov election Field Research Corporation Table 33 23

24 Q11a (Banner 2) : Likely voters (Form B) Male Female Gender Race/Ethnicity Age Marital Status White non- Hispanic Latino Spanish speaking English speaking Asian/ Pac Isle African- American Married Not married living together Never married Widow/ separated/ divorced Child under 18 in HH 11a. Generally speaking, is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable? Weighted 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% FAVORABLE 52.8% 48.3% 56.1% 46.9% 62.6% 91.5% 53.0% 44.0% 83.8% 50.9% 48.6% 53.6% 60.8% 45.8% 46.8% 60.0% 63.8% 52.3% 49.4% 53.5% UNFAVORABLE 42.6% 47.6% 38.8% 49.5% 34.0% 3.5% 44.1% 45.2% 11.8% 43.0% 48.3% 38.6% 37.3% 47.8% 47.5% 37.8% 32.9% 44.5% 46.7% 41.7% % 4.1% 5.1% 3.5% 3.4% 5.0% 2.9% 10.9% 4.4% 6.1% 3.1% 7.8% 1.9% 6.4% 5.8% 2.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.9% 4.9% Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 34 24

25 Q11a (Banner 3) : Likely voters (Form B) $22,000 Under - $22,000 $39,999 Household Income FPL Education Political Ideology Tenure Less More Less Some $40,000 $50,000 Post Strongly Moderately Middle than than than H.S. college/ College Moderately Strongly - - $100,000+ graduate conservative ative road conserv- of the Own 138% 138% high graduate trade graduate liberal liberal $49,999 $99,999 work FPL FPL school school 11a. Generally speaking, is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable? Weighted 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% FAVORABLE 52.8% 61.7% 50.0% 52.3% 48.4% 52.2% 69.8% 49.5% 56.7% 54.1% 44.2% 51.5% 62.4% 19.1% 43.5% 52.8% 73.3% 71.5% 43.4% 65.0% UNFAVORABLE 42.6% 35.9% 45.4% 35.9% 50.4% 43.4% 26.1% 45.7% 34.5% 42.1% 50.2% 47.0% 30.0% 77.7% 47.4% 41.9% 19.5% 28.5% 51.1% 31.6% % 2.4% 4.6% 11.8% 1.2% 4.4% 4.1% 4.8% 8.8% 3.9% 5.5% 1.5% 7.6% 3.2% 9.1% 5.3% 7.3% - 5.5% 3.4% Rent/ Field Research Corporation Table 35 25

26 Q11b (Banner 1) : Likely voters (Form B) Southern Section Area Region Northern Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County Inland Empire South Coast Central Valley SF Bay Area (total) So. No. Citizen Citizenship Status Non- Citizen Registered Democrat Voter registration/party Registered to vote Registered Registered Republican NPP/other 11b. Generally speaking, is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable? Weighted 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% FAVORABLE 23.5% 19.9% 28.7% 19.7% 32.6% 10.0% 25.1% 38.2% 40.1% 23.1% 16.7% 18.4% 14.3% 23.5% % 3.4% 59.5% 17.4% 23.5% UNFAVORABLE 72.5% 76.0% 67.5% 75.9% 64.7% 85.2% 74.9% 56.6% 57.6% 74.3% 75.1% 76.8% 72.9% 72.5% % 94.9% 36.4% 73.6% 72.5% % 4.1% 3.8% 4.5% 2.8% 4.8% - 5.3% 2.3% 2.6% 8.2% 4.8% 12.8% 4.0% - 4.0% 1.7% 4.1% 9.0% 4.0% Likely voter in Nov election Field Research Corporation Table 36 26

27 Q11b (Banner 2) : Likely voters (Form B) Male Female Gender Race/Ethnicity Age Marital Status White non- Hispanic Latino Spanish speaking English speaking Asian/ Pac Isle African- American Married Not married living together Never married Widow/ separated/ divorced Child under 18 in HH 11b. Generally speaking, is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable? Weighted 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% FAVORABLE 23.5% 26.2% 21.5% 30.0% 12.7% 4.7% 15.4% 25.6% 4.9% 9.9% 21.4% 14.2% 22.7% 38.4% 28.7% 13.0% 9.3% 31.5% 16.9% 26.2% UNFAVORABLE 72.5% 69.7% 74.6% 67.1% 83.9% 90.9% 81.5% 65.8% 92.4% 88.8% 77.9% 79.4% 72.6% 56.6% 66.3% 87.0% 89.2% 64.2% 81.0% 69.2% * % 4.0% 3.9% 2.8% 3.4% 4.4% 3.0% 8.6% 2.8% 1.4% 0.7% 6.4% 4.7% 5.0% 5.0% - 1.5% 4.3% 2.1% 4.5% Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 37 27

28 Q11b (Banner 3) : Likely voters (Form B) $22,000 Under - $22,000 $39,999 Household Income FPL Education Political Ideology Tenure Less More Less Some $40,000 $50,000 Post Strongly Moderately Middle than than than H.S. college/ College Moderately Strongly - - $100,000+ graduate conservative ative road conserv- of the Own 138% 138% high graduate trade graduate liberal liberal $49,999 $99,999 work FPL FPL school school 11b. Generally speaking, is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable? Weighted 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% FAVORABLE 23.5% 25.9% 37.9% 15.1% 22.2% 20.0% 19.3% 24.3% 30.1% 14.9% 32.6% 26.7% 12.3% 55.3% 44.9% 20.6% 2.5% 0.7% 31.2% 13.4% UNFAVORABLE 72.5% 70.3% 60.4% 72.2% 74.7% 76.9% 76.4% 71.8% 69.9% 79.2% 60.7% 71.1% 85.7% 38.8% 49.4% 75.5% 94.8% 98.4% 64.1% 84.0% % 3.8% 1.7% 12.7% 3.2% 3.2% 4.3% 3.9% - 5.9% 6.7% 2.3% 2.0% 5.8% 5.7% 3.9% 2.8% 0.9% 4.8% 2.6% Rent/ Field Research Corporation Table 38 28