Colorado Results. For 10/3/ /4/2012. Contact: Doug Kaplan,

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Colorado Results For 10/3/2012 10/4/2012 Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870 Executive Summary Following the debates, Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm conducted a survey of 1,438 likely

1 Colorado Results For 10/3/ /4/2012 Contact: Doug Kaplan, Executive Summary Following the debates, Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm conducted a survey of 1,438 likely voters in Colorado on October 3 rd October 4 th regarding their likely vote for a given presidential candidate. Of the 1,438 that began the survey, 1,285 gave a response regarding their preference for president. The poll carries a margin of error of 2.8%. Romney s lead is a reversal from the September 25 th poll, where Obama was ahead 50.2% to Presidential Race, Sep 25 Presidential Race, Oct % 40% 45.6% 43.4% 45% 40% 41.2% 43.2% 35% 35% 30% 30% % of Total 25% 20% % of Total 25% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 0% 5% 0% 3.7% Very likely Obama Likely Obama Somewhat likely Obama Undecided Somewhat likely Romney Likely Romney Very likely Romney 1.0% 4.8% 2.0% 4.1% Very likely Obama Likely Obama Somewhat likely Obama Undecided Somewhat likely Romney Likely Romney Very likely Romney 2.5% 2.1% 4.3% 0.7% 1.4% 1 Thomas Young, Ph.D.

2 45.5%. What happened? In terms of the numbers, Obama saw a decrease of 4.4% among Very likely Obama voters, an increase of 1.2% among Likely Obama voters, and a 1.1% decrease in Somewhat likely voters. On the other side, Romney saw a 0.2% decline in Very likely Romney voters, a 1.3% increase among Somewhat likely Romney voters and a 2.7% increase among Likely Romney voters. Overall, it looks as if the debate shifted voters more away from the very likely category towards center. Interestingly, the percentage of Undecided went from 4.3% to 4.8%. A full reporting of the results and cross tabulations follows. Results Summary Presidential race Percent of total Very likely Romney 43.2% Very likely Obama 41.2% Undecided 4.8% Likely Romney 4.1% Likely Obama 3.7% Somewhat likely Romney 2.0% Somewhat likely Obama 1.0% Presidential race overall Romney 49.4% Obama 45.9% Other 4.8% Political affiliation Other 39.8% Republican 31.9% Democrat 28.3% Race White 80.1% Hispanic 8.6% Black 5.9% Other 5.4% Religious affiliation Other Christian 44.3% Other 30.1% Catholic 20.3% Jewish 3.0% Muslim 2.3% Age group % % % % 2 Thomas Young, Ph.D.

3 Gender Men 49.2% Women 50.8% Approve of Obama's job performance? Disapprove 50.9% Approve 40.5% Other 8.6% Who's better at managing $1 million? Romney 53.5% Obama 34.6% Unsure 11.9% U.S. on right track? Wrong 53.5% Right 36.8% Unsure 9.8% Survey Questions 1. Are you registered to vote? (Yes, No) No crosstabs available for this question because if an individual answered no, the questionnaire stopped. 2. How likely are you to vote in this year s presidential elections? (Very unlikely, Unlikely, Somewhat unlikely, Somewhat likely, Likely, Very likely) Reported results only include somewhat likely, likely, and very likely voters. 3. In which party are you either registered to vote or do you consider yourself a member of? (Democrat, Republican, independent or minority party) Presidential race overall Romney 49.4% Obama 45.9% Other 4.8% 4. What race do you identify yourself as? (White/Caucasian, African-American, Hispanic, Asian, Other) Race White 80.1% Hispanic 8.6% Black 5.9% Other 5.4% 3 Thomas Young, Ph.D.

4 5. Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation? (Roman Catholic, Protestant/other non-denominational Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Other/no affiliation) Religious affiliation Other Christian 44.3% Other 30.1% Catholic 20.3% Jewish 3.0% Muslim 2.3% 6. How old are you? (18-29, 30-49, 50-64, Over 65) Age group % % % % 7. What is your Gender? (Male, Female) Gender Men 49.2% Women 50.8% 8. If the presidential election were held today, whom would you vote for? (Very likely Obama, Likely Obama, Somewhat likely Obama, Undecided, Somewhat likely Romney, Likely Romney, Very likely Romney) Presidential race Percent of total Very likely Romney 43.2% Very likely Obama 41.2% Undecided 4.8% Likely Romney 4.1% Likely Obama 3.7% Somewhat likely Romney 2.0% Somewhat likely Obama 1.0% 4 Thomas Young, Ph.D.

5 9. Do you approve of President Obama s job performance? Approve of Obama's job performance? Disapprove 50.9% Approve 40.5% Other 8.6% 10. If you had $1 million that needed to be managed, whom would you trust to manage your money? Who's better at managing $1 million? Romney 53.5% Obama 34.6% Unsure 11.9% 11. Do you think the United States is headed in the right direction? U.S. on right track? Wrong 53.5% Right 36.8% Unsure 9.8% Note: the statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions for the 2012 General Election. 5 Thomas Young, Ph.D.

6 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page 1 log type: smcl opened on: 5 Oct 2012, 16:15:06. tab2 party race religiousaffiliation age sex presidentialraceoverall approveofobamajobperformance w > hosbetteratmanaging1million usrightdirection, cell chi2 column lrchi2 nofreq row wrap -> tabulation of party by race Race Party Black Hispanic Other White Total Democrat Other Republican Total Pearson chi2( 6) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 6) = Pr = > tabulation of party by religiousaffiliation Religious affiliation Party Catholic Jewish Muslim Other Other Chr Total Democrat Other Republican Total Thomas Young, Ph.D.

7 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page Pearson chi2( 8) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 8) = Pr = > tabulation of party by age Age Party Total Democrat Other Republican Total Pearson chi2( 6) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 6) = Pr = > tabulation of party by sex Sex Party Men Women Total Democrat Other Republican Total Thomas Young, Ph.D.

8 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page 3 Pearson chi2( 2) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 2) = Pr = > tabulation of party by presidentialraceoverall Presidential race, overall Party Obama Other Romney Total Democrat Other Republican Total Pearson chi2( 4) = 2.7e+03 Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) = 2.9e+03 Pr = > tabulation of party by approveofobamajobperformance Approve of Obama job performance? Party Approve Disapprov Other Total Democrat Other Republican Total Thomas Young, Ph.D.

9 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page 4 Pearson chi2( 4) = 3.3e+03 Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) = 3.7e+03 Pr = > tabulation of party by whosbetteratmanaging1million Who's better at managing $1 million? Party Obama Romney Unsure Total Democrat Other Republican Total Pearson chi2( 4) = 3.1e+03 Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) = 3.4e+03 Pr = > tabulation of party by usrightdirection U.S. right direction? Party Right Unsure Wrong Total Democrat Other Republican Total Thomas Young, Ph.D.

10 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page 5 Pearson chi2( 4) = 2.8e+03 Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) = 3.1e+03 Pr = > tabulation of race by religiousaffiliation Religious affiliation Race Catholic Jewish Muslim Other Other Chr Total Black Hispanic Other White Total Pearson chi2( 12) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 12) = Pr = > tabulation of race by age Age Race Total Black Hispanic Other White Thomas Young, Ph.D.

11 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page 6 Total Pearson chi2( 9) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 9) = Pr = > tabulation of race by sex Sex Race Men Women Total Black Hispanic Other White Total Pearson chi2( 3) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 3) = Pr = > tabulation of race by presidentialraceoverall Presidential race, overall Race Obama Other Romney Total Black Hispanic Other Thomas Young, Ph.D.

12 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page White Total Pearson chi2( 6) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 6) = Pr = > tabulation of race by approveofobamajobperformance Approve of Obama job performance? Race Approve Disapprov Other Total Black Hispanic Other White Total Pearson chi2( 6) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 6) = Pr = > tabulation of race by whosbetteratmanaging1million 12 Thomas Young, Ph.D.

13 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page 8 Who's better at managing $1 million? Race Obama Romney Unsure Total Black Hispanic Other White Total Pearson chi2( 6) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 6) = Pr = > tabulation of race by usrightdirection U.S. right direction? Race Right Unsure Wrong Total Black Hispanic Other White Total Pearson chi2( 6) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 6) = Pr = > tabulation of religiousaffiliation by age 13 Thomas Young, Ph.D.

14 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page 9 Religious Age affiliation Total Catholic Jewish Muslim Other Other Christian Total Pearson chi2( 12) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 12) = Pr = > tabulation of religiousaffiliation by sex Religious Sex affiliation Men Women Total Catholic Jewish Muslim Other Thomas Young, Ph.D.

15 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page 10 Other Christian Total Pearson chi2( 4) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) = Pr = > tabulation of religiousaffiliation by presidentialraceoverall Religious Presidential race, overall affiliation Obama Other Romney Total Catholic Jewish Muslim Other Other Christian Total Pearson chi2( 8) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 8) =. -> tabulation of religiousaffiliation by approveofobamajobperformance 15 Thomas Young, Ph.D.

16 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page 11 Approve of Obama job Religious performance? affiliation Approve Disapprov Other Total Catholic Jewish Muslim Other Other Christian Total Pearson chi2( 8) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 8) = Pr = > tabulation of religiousaffiliation by whosbetteratmanaging1million Who's better at managing $1 Religious million? affiliation Obama Romney Unsure Total Catholic Jewish Muslim Other Other Christian Total Thomas Young, Ph.D.

17 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page Pearson chi2( 8) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 8) = Pr = > tabulation of religiousaffiliation by usrightdirection Religious U.S. right direction? affiliation Right Unsure Wrong Total Catholic Jewish Muslim Other Other Christian Total Pearson chi2( 8) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 8) =. -> tabulation of age by sex Sex Age Men Women Total Thomas Young, Ph.D.

18 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page Total Pearson chi2( 3) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 3) = Pr = > tabulation of age by presidentialraceoverall Presidential race, overall Age Obama Other Romney Total Total Pearson chi2( 6) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 6) = Pr = > tabulation of age by approveofobamajobperformance 18 Thomas Young, Ph.D.

19 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page 14 Approve of Obama job performance? Age Approve Disapprov Other Total Total Pearson chi2( 6) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 6) = Pr = > tabulation of age by whosbetteratmanaging1million Who's better at managing $1 million? Age Obama Romney Unsure Total Total Pearson chi2( 6) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 6) = Pr = > tabulation of age by usrightdirection 19 Thomas Young, Ph.D.

20 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page 15 U.S. right direction? Age Right Unsure Wrong Total Total Pearson chi2( 6) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 6) = Pr = > tabulation of sex by presidentialraceoverall Presidential race, overall Sex Obama Other Romney Total Men Women Total Pearson chi2( 2) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 2) = Pr = > tabulation of sex by approveofobamajobperformance 20 Thomas Young, Ph.D.

21 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page 16 Approve of Obama job performance? Sex Approve Disapprov Other Total Men Women Total Pearson chi2( 2) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 2) = Pr = > tabulation of sex by whosbetteratmanaging1million Who's better at managing $1 million? Sex Obama Romney Unsure Total Men Women Total Pearson chi2( 2) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 2) = Pr = > tabulation of sex by usrightdirection 21 Thomas Young, Ph.D.

22 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page 17 U.S. right direction? Sex Right Unsure Wrong Total Men Women Total Pearson chi2( 2) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 2) = Pr = > tabulation of presidentialraceoverall by approveofobamajobperformance Presidenti Approve of Obama job al race, performance? overall Approve Disapprov Other Total Obama Other Romney Total Pearson chi2( 4) = 5.8e+03 Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) = 6.5e+03 Pr = > tabulation of presidentialraceoverall by whosbetteratmanaging1million 22 Thomas Young, Ph.D.

23 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page 18 Presidenti Who's better at managing $1 al race, million? overall Obama Romney Unsure Total Obama Other Romney Total Pearson chi2( 4) = 4.9e+03 Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) = 5.2e+03 Pr = > tabulation of presidentialraceoverall by usrightdirection Presidenti al race, U.S. right direction? overall Right Unsure Wrong Total Obama Other Romney Total Pearson chi2( 4) = 4.7e+03 Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) = 5.2e+03 Pr = > tabulation of approveofobamajobperformance by whosbetteratmanaging1million 23 Thomas Young, Ph.D.

24 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page 19 Approve of Obama job Who's better at managing $1 performanc million? e? Obama Romney Unsure Total Approve Disapprove Other Total Pearson chi2( 4) = 6.2e+03 Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) = 7.2e+03 Pr = > tabulation of approveofobamajobperformance by usrightdirection Approve of Obama job performanc U.S. right direction? e? Right Unsure Wrong Total Approve Disapprove Other Total Pearson chi2( 4) = 5.8e+03 Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) = 7.1e+03 Pr = > tabulation of whosbetteratmanaging1million by usrightdirection 24 Thomas Young, Ph.D.

25 Colorado Crosstabs, October 3-4, 2012 Friday October 5 16:16: Page 20. Who's better at managing $1 U.S. right direction? million? Right Unsure Wrong Total Obama Romney Unsure Total Pearson chi2( 4) = 4.9e+03 Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) = 5.5e+03 Pr = log type: smcl closed on: 5 Oct 2012, 16:15:54 25 Thomas Young, Ph.D.

The Growing Gap between Landline and Dual Frame Election Polls

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