Clinton Leads Trump in Michigan by 10% (Clinton 49% - Trump 39%)
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1 P R E S S R E L E A S E FOR RELEASE: August 16, 2016 Contact: Steve Mitchell Clinton Leads Trump in Michigan by 10% (Clinton 49% - Trump 39%) EAST LANSING, Michigan --- The latest Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll of Michigan shows former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (49%) leading businessman Donald Trump (39%) by a 10 percent margin in a two-way race, and by the same ten percent margin in a four-way race that includes Libertarian Party candidate former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein. In the four-way race it is Clinton 44%, Trump 33%, Johnson 9%, and Stein 5% The IVR (automated) poll N=1,314 likely voters in the November 2016 General Election was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications on August 9-10, 2016 and has a Margin of Error of + or 2.7% at the 95% level of confidence. Trump s support is fueled by angry voters. We asked voters if they agreed or disagreed with the statement I m mad as hell and I won t take it anymore. Of the 54% who said they agreed, Trump leads by a 2:1 margin (58%-28%). However, among the 26% who disagreed, Clinton leads by a huge margin (87%-9%). Among the 20% who were not sure if they agreed or not, Clinton led by a more than 2:1 margin (58%-25%), Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said. At this time, third party candidates don t seem to benefit either Clinton or Trump. When you add in the Libertarian and Green Party candidates, Clinton s leads by the same margin, although both she and Trump lose voters to Johnson and Stein. In the two-way contest, Clinton has expanded her lead with key demographics. Clinton s lead has widened and the percentage of undecided voters has dropped since our July survey that showed Clinton leading Trump 40%-34%. She has a very strong eighteen percent lead with women (54%-35%) and leads with men as well (45%-41%). Clinton is also doing better with Democrats (88% support) than Trump is doing with Republicans (77%). Trump had been winning with independents but now trails with those voters in a two-way race by seven percent (42%-35%). Since the end of the two conventions, Clinton has solidified her lead in Michigan, Mitchell concluded. Crosstabs follow:
2 N=1315 1) Total 18) Two-Way Trial Pres Ballot Undecid- Total Clinton Trump ed 4) Age % 74.1% 15.6% 10.2% 11.2% 16.8% 4.5% 9.4% % 55.6% 33.2% 11.2% 14.9% 16.8% 12.8% 13.8% % 44.4% 38.7% 16.8% 21.2% 19.1% 21.3% 29.6% % 40.9% 47.6% 11.5% 15.8% 13.1% 19.6% 15.1% % 45.4% 46.0% 8.6% 24.6% 22.6% 29.4% 17.6% % 47.2% 38.5% 14.3% 12.2% 11.7% 12.3% 14.5% 5) Gender Male % 44.9% 41.4% 13.7% 47.6% 43.2% 51.2% 54.1% Female % 53.6% 35.8% 10.6% 52.4% 56.8% 48.8% 45.9%
3 N=1315 1) Total 18) Two-Way Trial Pres Ballot Undecid- Total Clinton Trump ed 6) Race White % 43.8% 44.3% 11.9% 80.1% 70.9% 92.3% 78.6% African-American % 88.0% 8.0% 4.0% 13.3% 23.7% 2.8% 4.4% Hispanic % 41.2% 5.9% 52.9% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 5.7% Asian Other % 40.0% 34.3% 25.7% 5.3% 4.3% 4.7% 11.3% 7) Party Democrat or Lean Democrat % 87.5% 7.2% 5.3% 40.3% 71.4% 7.5% 17.6% Republican or Lean Republican 100.0% 11.4% 76.9% 11.7% 35.2% 8.2% 70.4% 34.0% Another Party % 41.8% 34.5% 23.6% 4.2% 3.5% 3.8% 8.2% Independent % 41.2% 34.8% 24.0% 20.3% 16.9% 18.4% 40.3%
4 N=1315 1) Total 18) Two-Way Trial Pres Ballot Undecid- Total Clinton Trump ed 8) Union Membership Respondent % 61.9% 30.2% 7.9% 24.0% 30.0% 18.8% 15.7% Someone Else % 48.2% 44.1% 7.6% 12.9% 12.6% 14.8% 8.2% Non-Union % 43.6% 41.8% 14.6% 59.5% 52.5% 64.6% 71.7% Not Sure % 66.7% 18.8% 14.6% 3.7% 4.9% 1.8% 4.4%
5 N=1315 1) Total 18) Two-Way Trial Pres Ballot Undecid- Total Clinton Trump ed 9) Area City Of Detroit % 86.5% 10.6% 2.9% 7.9% 13.8% 2.2% 1.9% Wayne County Outside Of Detroit 100.0% 45.7% 44.4% 9.9% 11.5% 10.6% 13.2% 9.4% Oakland County % 50.0% 40.7% 9.3% 18.7% 18.9% 19.8% 14.5% Macomb County % 40.3% 44.4% 15.3% 5.5% 4.5% 6.3% 6.9% Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Thumb 100.0% 43.1% 48.5% 8.5% 9.9% 8.6% 12.5% 6.9% Monroe, Washtenaw, Lansing, Mid-Michigan 100.0% 50.9% 31.9% 17.3% 17.2% 17.7% 14.2% 24.5% West Michigan % 45.5% 40.1% 14.3% 21.2% 19.5% 22.1% 25.2% Northern Michigan/U.P % 38.3% 45.8% 15.9% 8.1% 6.3% 9.7% 10.7%
6 N=1315 1) Total 18) Two-Way Trial Pres Ballot Undecid- Total Clinton Trump ed 3) "Mad As Hell" Strongly Agree % 24.1% 66.1% 9.8% 36.6% 17.8% 62.8% 29.6% Agree % 36.2% 40.6% 23.1% 17.4% 12.8% 18.4% 33.3% Disagree % 79.9% 13.2% 6.9% 12.1% 19.5% 4.2% 6.9% Strongly Disagree % 93.2% 5.3% 1.6% 14.4% 27.2% 2.0% 1.9% Not Sure % 57.4% 25.0% 17.6% 19.5% 22.6% 12.6% 28.3% 18) Two-Way Trial Pres Ballot Clinton % 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% Trump % 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 38.5% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Undecided % 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
7 N=1303 1) Total 19) Four-Way Trial Pres Ballot Total Clinton Johnson Stein Trump Undecided 100.0% 100.0% 4) Age % 60.4% 16.0% 9.7% 4.9% 9.0% 11.1% 15.3% 19.7% 22.2% 1.6% 11.3% % 44.8% 10.4% 8.0% 28.9% 8.0% 15.4% 15.8% 17.9% 25.4% 13.2% 13.9% % 38.5% 8.1% 8.1% 35.9% 9.5% 21.0% 18.5% 18.8% 34.9% 22.3% 22.6% % 37.9% 11.8% 1.4% 42.2% 6.6% 16.2% 14.1% 21.4% 4.8% 20.2% 12.2% % 42.2% 6.7% 1.6% 40.6% 8.9% 24.2% 23.4% 17.9% 7.9% 29.1% 24.3% % 45.9% 3.1% 1.9% 37.7% 11.3% 12.2% 12.9% 4.3% 4.8% 13.6% 15.7% 100.0% 100.0% 5) Gender Male % 36.4% 12.4% 6.0% 35.7% 9.5% 47.7% 39.8% 65.8% 58.7% 50.5% 51.3% Female % 50.1% 5.9% 3.8% 32.0% 8.2% 52.3% 60.2% 34.2% 41.3% 49.5% 48.7%
8 N=1303 1) Total 19) Four-Way Trial Pres Ballot Total Clinton Johnson Stein Trump Undecided 100.0% 100.0% 6) Race White % 37.8% 10.7% 4.6% 39.0% 7.9% 79.7% 69.2% 94.9% 76.2% 92.0% 71.3% African-American % 80.1% 3.4% 5.1% 6.8% 4.5% 13.5% 24.8% 5.1% 14.3% 2.7% 7.0% Hispanic % 35.3% 0.0% 11.8% 5.9% 47.1% 1.3% 1.1% 0.0% 3.2% 0.2% 7.0% Asian Other % 39.4% 0.0% 5.6% 31.0% 23.9% 5.4% 4.9% 0.0% 6.3% 5.0% 14.8% 100.0% 100.0% 7) Party Democrat or Lean Democrat % 79.2% 3.8% 5.3% 4.2% 7.4% 40.3% 73.2% 17.1% 44.4% 5.0% 33.9% Republican or Lean Republican 100.0% 11.2% 7.9% 0.9% 71.5% 8.6% 35.0% 9.0% 30.8% 6.3% 74.1% 33.9% Another Party % 41.8% 7.3% 3.6% 32.7% 14.5% 4.2% 4.0% 3.4% 3.2% 4.1% 7.0% Independent % 29.2% 21.3% 10.9% 27.7% 10.9% 20.5% 13.7% 48.7% 46.0% 16.8% 25.2%
9 N=1303 1) Total 19) Four-Way Trial Pres Ballot Total Clinton Johnson Stein Trump Undecided 100.0% 100.0% 8) Union Membership Respondent % 58.1% 6.1% 1.6% 27.2% 7.0% 24.0% 32.0% 16.2% 7.9% 19.3% 19.1% Someone Else % 49.1% 9.5% 3.6% 35.5% 2.4% 13.0% 14.6% 13.7% 9.5% 13.6% 3.5% Non-Union % 37.6% 9.4% 6.0% 37.1% 9.8% 59.3% 51.2% 62.4% 73.0% 65.2% 66.1% Not Sure % 25.0% 18.8% 12.5% 16.7% 27.1% 3.7% 2.1% 7.7% 9.5% 1.8% 11.3%
10 N=1303 1) Total 19) Four-Way Trial Pres Ballot Total Clinton Johnson Stein Trump Undecided 100.0% 100.0% 9) Area City Of Detroit % 79.0% 1.9% 12.4% 3.8% 2.9% 8.1% 14.6% 1.7% 20.6% 0.9% 2.6% Wayne County Outside Of Detroit 100.0% 43.8% 5.9% 1.3% 43.1% 5.9% 11.7% 11.8% 7.7% 3.2% 15.0% 7.8% Oakland County % 46.3% 9.8% 2.4% 35.0% 6.5% 18.9% 20.1% 20.5% 9.5% 19.5% 13.9% Macomb County % 31.0% 1.4% 4.2% 39.4% 23.9% 5.4% 3.9% 0.9% 4.8% 6.4% 14.8% Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Thumb 100.0% 38.6% 5.5% 14.2% 32.3% 9.4% 9.7% 8.6% 6.0% 28.6% 9.3% 10.4% Monroe, Washtenaw, Lansing, Mid-Michigan 100.0% 40.4% 21.1% 4.5% 30.0% 4.0% 17.1% 15.8% 40.2% 15.9% 15.2% 7.8% West Michigan % 40.5% 5.1% 3.3% 37.2% 13.9% 21.0% 19.5% 12.0% 14.3% 23.2% 33.0% Northern Michigan/U.P % 30.8% 12.5% 1.9% 44.2% 10.6% 8.0% 5.6% 11.1% 3.2% 10.5% 9.6%
11 N=1303 1) Total 19) Four-Way Trial Pres Ballot Total Clinton Johnson Stein Trump Undecided 100.0% 100.0% 3) "Mad As Hell" Strongly Agree % 20.3% 9.2% 7.9% 57.5% 5.0% 36.7% 17.1% 37.6% 60.3% 62.5% 20.9% Agree % 29.5% 17.2% 6.2% 34.4% 12.8% 17.4% 11.8% 33.3% 22.2% 17.7% 25.2% Disagree % 74.2% 4.3% 3.7% 13.5% 4.3% 12.5% 21.3% 6.0% 9.5% 5.0% 6.1% Strongly Disagree % 86.5% 5.9% 0.5% 4.9% 2.2% 14.2% 28.2% 9.4% 1.6% 2.0% 3.5% Not Sure % 49.2% 6.4% 1.6% 22.4% 20.4% 19.2% 21.7% 13.7% 6.3% 12.7% 44.3% 100.0% 100.0%
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