The Future of 3G Networks

Transcription

1 The Future of 3G Networks UMTS: Status of Development, Opportunities and Threats Francesco Vatalaro Professor of Radiocommunications University of Rome Tor Vergata Rome, Italy 1

2 Contents UMTS Development Status 2G/3G Evolution Threats or Opportunities? Concluding Remarks 2

3 The Future of 3G Networks UMTS Development Status 3

4 Technical and non Technical Facts Affecting UMTS Development the Bad The Financial front: More than 116 billion spent overall on 3G licenses in Europe European Governments inhomogeneous policies for licenses 8.4 billion in Germany 7.7 billion in the UK 2.9 billion in Italy (average) only small administration fees in other Countries (Sweden, Finland, etc.) Some operators credit ratings downgraded due to high debt exposures Large estimated cost for building nationwide UMTS networks from 0.7 billion (Switzerland) to 5 billion (Germany) Difficult for operators to raise funds to cover UMTS rollout costs 4

5 The Bad...Continues The Political/Regulatory/Social front: Some European Administrations set demanding coverage requirements e.g. Italy: cover 10% main cities within May 02, full coverage within May 04 New sites required for UMTS BTSs due to coverage smaller than GSM Sites difficult to acquire due to opposition of some local Authorities and spontaneous groups of citizens against e.m. pollution The Technical/Operational front: Dual-mode GSM/UMTS handsets shortage expected to last until 3Q 2002 Simultaneous roll-out of 3 to 6 networks per Country is placing a severe demand on skilled (and scarce) human resources Some network operators are delaying rollout 5

6 Status of UMTS Introduction The Good In Japan NTT DoCoMo started WCDMA experimental service in May 2001 Commercial services started on October 4, 2001, initially covering the Tokyo urban area with 30 km radium WCDMA terminals in Japan NTT DoCoMo started commercialising the FOMA N002 terminal, first 3G cellphone i-motion-compatible (cost: 40,000-yen, i.e. about 360) 6

7 The Good...Continues NTT DoCoMo video-clip distribution service (November 2002): "i-motion" service to download files at 384 kbps directly from the official i-mode-compatible portals (FOMA 3rd Generation) Initially 28 Content Providers will offer 37 different i-motion sites with music, news, and highlight Then the offer will increase and will include interactive channels The UMTS already exists! 7

8 The Future of 3G Networks 2G/3G Evolution 8

9 GPRS: the Forerunner The major step forward in mobile communications is packet transmission with the always-on feature With the GPRS, the customer pays for the amount of data transmitted or received, rather than the connection time GPRS copes with the essence of 3G services, and is anticipating some main UMTS services 9

10 Market Conditions Are Changing The value shifts towards contents and service provisioning New players (Content Providers, Internet Service Providers, Application Service Providers, etc.) will emerge But the Network Operators own the Customer through... Access Network SIM/USIM Authentication Customer Profiling Billing Micropayments, transactions... 10

11 Monthly ARPU in Europe 100 ( ) 50 Roaming Complex data Simple data Voice and voice traffic still gets the largest part of the pie! Source: HSBC

12 Market Growth While the piecontinues expanding... VOICE VOICE search for the killer app is fuzzy! 12

13 VAS Revenues/Traffic Revenues [ financial data] (%) 7% Value added services revenue share is still less than 10% however notice the change in derivative 13

14 Moore s Law for Air Interface Capacity 1.0e+06 Transmission rate (kbit/s) Number of transistors 1.0e e e e e e e e+01 Modem rate 1.0e e+00 Air interface capacity 1.0e e Source: EURESCOM,

15 Air Interface Capacity Air interface capacity is a scarce resource Even the UMTS networks will not have sufficient bandwidth to support services typical 700 kbit/s/cell Need for easier access to faster information services at any place Interworking: WLAN/Bluetooth and UMTS/GSM Interworking: Broadcast (DAB/DVB) and UMTS/GSM 15

16 The Future of 3G Networks Threats or Opportunities? 16

17 Individual Space Hierarchy: the MultiSphere 3rd Generation (3G): BAN 1m PAN 10m LAN 100m 3G access and routing with full mobility and QoS Local area network (LAN): nomadic access to fixed, mobile networks & to the Internet Personal area network (PAN): Sensors & interfaces I/O devices & peripherals Access ports Communications & routing download information on peripherals Body area network (BAN): sensors & interfaces friendly management around the body 17

18 WLAN Business Opportunities Enterprise Integration and delivery of corporate WLAN Intranet solutions As a simple cable-replacement solution To enable new services such as the transparent indoor mobility and roaming among parent companies Remote secure access to Internet/Intranet 18

19 Opportunities for Mobile Operators Corporate A branch R BS GPRS network Indoor Hotspots Corporate A HQ R Corporate B BS R Integration of WLAN/GPRS and WLAN/UMTS offerings Data services anywhere with maximum QoS level Through the WLAN the user can get highrate access to Internet/Intranet Where the WLAN coverage is not available the user can get service through GPRS or UMTS (e.g. in public areas) More efficient location-based services In WLAN hotspot areas services otherwise non easily available with GPRS or UMTS can be offered Information on nearest stores Access to local resources (e.g. printers) 19

20 Integrated GPRS/WLAN Access Alternatives (1) CORPORATE A Web Dashboard AAA CORPORATE B AAA User ID Password HOT SPOT WLAN Web Browser GGSN SSG TT IP Network Corporate Intranet GSM/GPRS SCENARIO: User of Corporate B accessing his/her Intranet through Corporate A WLAN Authentication: performed through credentials (USER ID, PW) already present in the Corporate AAA (Authentication, Authorization & Accounting) system Intermediate RADIUS servers acting as Proxys Traffic: Client s traffic transported through VPN-IP with crypto tunnels as GPRS traffic Service access and Accounting: Through SSG (Service Selection Gateway) client is addressed to appropriate Dashboards 20

21 Integrated GPRS/WLAN Access Alternatives (2) Web Dashboard CORPORATE A SSG AAA CORPORATE B AAA User ID Password Web Browser Wireless LAN HOT SPOT IP network TT Corporate Intranet GGSN VPN-IP tunnel IPsec GSM/GPRS SMS -C Server Crypto Key WLAN crypto keys distribution can happen via SMS (time key client s indicated, automatic generation and distribution, etc.) Client s Traffic: transported through VPN-IP with crypto tunnels as GPRS traffic (as before) Service access and Accounting: Through SSG (Service Selection Gateway) client is addressed to appropriate Dashboards (as before) 21

22 Integrated GPRS/WLAN Access Alternatives (3) CORPORATE A CORPORATE B AAA IP network Corporate Intranet Wireless LAN HOT SPOT Authentication Server GSM/GPRS Authentication HLR MSC Use of WLAN cards with integrated SIM (or USB readers) AuC in the network able to interact (through a MAP Gateway) with GSM elements Authentication and encryption of client s data with same GSM methods 22

23 The Future of 3G Networks Concluding Remarks 23

24 Concluding Remarks Transition from 2G to 3G More evolutionary than revolutionary GPRS is a forerunner (although slow start) Within 3G there will be many (r)evolutions Customers and Services GSM/UMTS operators will continue to dominate the marketplace as they own the customer Voice services will get the largest part of the pie for long time Bandwidth shortage and the Moore law for wireless capacity Easier access to faster information services at any place Threats and opportunities from emerging wireless technologies More opportunities than threats Interworking between WLAN/Bluetooth and UMTS/GSM (today s issue) Interworking between Broadcast (DAB/DVB) and UMTS/GSM (tomorrow s issue) 24

25 The Future of 3G Networks Thank you! Francesco Vatalaro Università di Roma Tor Vergata Dipartimento di Ingegneria Elettronica Viale del Politecnico 1, Roma, ITALY Mobile: Fixed: Fax: