A Quarterly Market and Technology Analysis of RF Wireless Systems, Modules and Components from 100MHz to 100GHz

Transcription

1 THE WIRELESS TECHNOLOGY REPORT A Quarterly Market and Technology Analysis of RF Wireless Systems, Modules and Components from 100MHz to 100GHz FEBRUARY 2017 WEARABLES - Market has not grown as well as hoped - Optimal product definition and application not yet known - Samsung smartwatch is getting close to sweet spot LOW-COST SMARTPHONES - Chinese vendors taking low- to mid-level market - Success from BOM and business model - Discussion with case study GOOGLE SOLI - Unique radar-based gesture sensor - All solutions were available - Outside-the-box thinking was needed A valuable source of competitive intelligence and trend analysis for technology and business development executives. Targeted at wireless systems designers, RF semiconductor houses, board and package assemblers, as well as their component suppliers.

2 CONSULTANTS TO THE ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY FROM TECHNOLOGY AND MARKET CHANGES PARTNERS LLC This material is Prismark Partners LLC 130 Main Street, Cold Spring Harbor, NY USA Telephone: Fax: Prismark Asia, 8F., No.96, Guangfu N. Rd., Songshan Dist., Taipei City 105, Taiwan (R.O.C.) Telephone: Fax: Visit our website at

3 THE WIRELESS TECHNOLOGY REPORT FEBRUARY 2017 The electronics industry is now large enough that as a whole it grows only slowly, and at the mercy of the overall macro-economic climate. Yet within this mature behemoth are market segments and technology fields that continue to offer exciting opportunities because they provide fresh applications or capabilities. This is true for the electronics industry as a whole, as well as the wireless industry and mobile phone industry WEARABLES GETTING CLOSER The wearable electronics market has generated a mix of utopian, dystopian, and sometimes just outlandish visions of a future with connected things worn on and sometimes implanted in our bodies. There is no doubt that wearable electronics have a unique personal up close relationship with the user, and this suggests that there is considerable market potential. So far, this potential has not been fully realized. Prismark has updated its wearable electronics forecast, and tears down an impressive new smartwatch LOW-COST CHINESE SMARTPHONES Around 75% of all smartphones sold worldwide are assembled in China, and increasingly the brand holder is a Chinese company as well. Originally helped by its own huge domestic market, Chinese smartphones are also increasingly successful in foreign markets. The low-end and now the mid-level of the smartphone market is being heavily targeted by Chinese smartphone vendors. There are several reasons for the success of these companies, as will be discussed using an interesting case study SOLI THINKING OUTSIDE-THE-BOX Creativity requires an inquisitive, open mind, and it helps to be exposed to different technologies used by businesses not competing in the same market. Google s Project Soli, a radar-based gesture sensor, is a great example of several companies thinking outside-the-box to envision creative solutions to vexing problems. Happy reading, hopefully making you stumble out-of-the-box too! PARTNERS LLC WTR FEBRUARY 2017

4 THE WIRELESS TECHNOLOGY REPORT DECEMBER 2016 The macro-economic environment remains weak and political changes bring unexpected uncertainties around the world. Having said that, there are some signs that we can be merry, and hopefully the next year will turn out better than expected. The mobile phone market is flat in 2016, but 2017 is likely to see some welcome recovery PCB MARKET AND SUPPLY OVERVIEW The PCB industry forecast remains weak at 3.1% decline in This forecast integrates weak demand for PCs, tablets, and slowing expansion of smartphone demand. HDI microvia demand is stabilizing, but FPC (flexible circuits) and IC substrate revenues are declining. Telecom infrastructure demand growth is slowly improving and automotive electronics demand remains attractive. However, industrial/medical multilayer PCB demand is hampered by conservative budget constraints. Cloud-driven server and storage systems volumes are increasing; however, new designs have fewer PCBs in smaller form factors APPLE: MORE INSIDE THAN OUTSIDE For many commentators, the 2016 editions of the Apple iphone and the Apple Watch were disappointing since few upgrades were readily apparent. Even worse, Apple s only new product, the AirPods, was first ridiculed then delayed. But all of these products did bring interesting changes with respect to electronics packaging and assembly. Apple continues to lead in that respect, and 2017 promises to be even more interesting PARTNERS LLC WTR DECEMBER 2016

5 THE WIRELESS TECHNOLOGY REPORT SEPTEMBER 2016 The economic environment remains quite stagnant and not conducive for substantial global expansion. Political and financial uncertainties wear on consumer confidence and corporate investment plans worldwide. The smartphone market has clearly entered the long-expected saturation phase. The wireless market will continue to grow going forward, but at a much-subdued rate. The desire for low-cost but versatile smartphones is allowing relative newcomers to gain market share FASTEST WIFI ROUTER IN THE WORLD The first WiFi protocol was released in 1997, although commercial success came only once Intel started promoting its Pentium CPU paired with WiFi as Centrino. Since then, WiFi has become indispensible, and repeated improvements and new standards have increased the possible data rate. The latest flavor of WiFi, WiGig, operates at 60GHz. Design and fabrication is challenging at such a high frequency, but experience is growing and costs are declining. The first WiGig router is analyzed IOT SYSTEM-ON-MODULE By 2019, Prismark expects that over one-half of the entire electronics industry by value will consist of Internet-connected devices. The problem is that the majority of companies have absolutely no experience with RF. Given this mindset, there is much interest in supplying an IoT System-On-Module (SOM). In the simplest form, they only provide connectivity typically Bluetooth, WiFi, or cellular. Increasingly, processing capability and even sensors are included in the SOM. Such plug-in modules are readily available off-the-shelf PARTNERS LLC WTR SEPTEMBER 2016

6 THE WIRELESS TECHNOLOGY REPORT JULY 2016 The economic environment remains quite stagnant and not conducive for substantial global expansion. Political and financial uncertainties wear on consumer confidence and corporate investment plans worldwide. The smartphone market has clearly entered the long-expected saturation phase. These first-half numbers mean that it will be virtually impossible for the industry to meet Prismark s initial forecast of handset shipments in 2016, and we have reduced the forecast HIGHLY INTEGRATED POWER MODULES Power management is increasingly a critical, even enabling, function in a wide variety of electronics systems. The power management system must be designed to provide a reliable and clean source of power at the necessary voltage and current to each component in the system. Point-of-load power modules combine the power functions into a fully integrated pre-tested module, but must deal with large passives and thermal challenges IC PACKAGING MARKET OVERVIEW Active devices are the heart of all electronic systems, but they must be properly packaged to meet the performance, size, and reliability needs of the system. This section provides an overview of the IC packaging market, with a focus on substratebased IC packages and the impact of Fan-Out Wafer Level Packaging LOW COST WEARABLE RF SYSTEMS The wireless industry is usually focused on high-value RF systems, especially smartphones. Another universe of hundreds of millions of low-cost RF systems exists, and this segment will grow. This section looks at two interesting examples: a singleuse temperature monitoring patch and a heart rate monitor PARTNERS LLC WTR JULY 2016