HDD Head and Media Markets Show Variable Growth and Decline, (Executive Summary) Executive Summary

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1 HDD Head and Media Markets Show Variable Growth and Decline, (Executive Summary) Executive Summary Publication Date: 12 March 2003

2 Author John Monroe This document has been published to the following Marketplace codes: HARD-WW-EX-0357 For More Information... In North America and Latin America: In Europe, the Middle East and Africa: In Asia/Pacific: In Japan: Worldwide via gartner.com: Entire contents 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice

3 HDD Head and Media Markets Show Variable Growth and Decline, (Executive Summary) Market Summary Market Segmentation Gartner Dataquest has expanded its annual market statistics research and now includes tracking and analysis of media and head consumption in all classes of hard disk drives (HDDs) as an independent report. In this document, Gartner Dataquest provides: An in-depth depiction of maximum shippable per-disk capacities, detailing areal density dynamics and growth rates for all classes of mobile, desktop and enterprise HDDs Comprehensive five-year (1998 through 2002) summaries of head and media consumption for all HDD market segments, including complete capacity breakdowns for all classes of mobile, desktop and enterprise HDDs. Note: A new five-year (2003 through 2007) forecast of head and media consumption in HDDs will be published as a separate document. Hard disk drives consume various classes and grades of giant magnetoresistive (GMR) and tunneling GMR (TGMR) heads integrated with various sizes of aluminum-substrate or ceramic/glass-substrate media. In general, two read-write heads will be used with one piece of media. In general, the vast majority of desktop and enterprise designs use aluminum-substrate media and the vast majority of mobile designs use ceramic/glass-substrate media. It should be noted that an increasing number of dedicated single-disk, single-head designs are being introduced, and, in many cases, an odd number of heads may be used to reach a desired capacity. For example: Using 80GBper-platter technology, 60GB capacity is reached by incorporating two disks and three heads. It should also be noted that most new designs will increasingly use aluminum-based substrates or exotic new compounds. The industry seems to be shifting away from ceramic/glass-substrate media. Gartner Dataquest has analyzed head and media consumption in the HDD industry by dividing mobile, desktop and enterprise designs according to their use of various media sizes as follows: 1.0-inch, 1.8-inch and 2.5-inch mobile HDDs (PCMCIA, CompactFlash or embedded ATA interfaces) 1.0-inch HDDs use 27.5-mm diameter media. IBM's Microdrive designs are the only drives being manufactured in this category. 1.8-inch HDDs use 48-mm diameter media. Only Toshiba is manufacturing 1.8-inch drive designs. 2.5-inch HDDs use 65-mm diameter media. Fujitsu, Hitachi/IBM and Toshiba are the only manufacturers of 2.5-inch mobile drives, but Seagate is expected to re-enter this market in the near future. Emerging uses for 1.0-inch and 1.8-inch HDDs include portable jukeboxes, digital cameras and ultraportable notebook PCs. The 2.5-inch HDDs are generally used in notebook, subnotebook and high-end handheld computing devices. Note: A few 3.0-inch mobile-class HDDs were delivered during 1996 and 1997, but this transient form factor is now extinct Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 1

4 2 HDD Head and Media Markets Show Variable Growth and Decline, (Executive Summary) 3.5-inch and 5.25-inch desktop HDDs (ATA interfaces) All classes and speeds of 3.5-inch desktop HDDs use 95-mm diameter media. Hitachi/IBM, Maxtor, Samsung, Seagate and Western Digital are the only manufacturers of 3.5-inch desktop HDDs. Fujitsu ceased production of 3.5-inch desktop-class HDDs in Removable cartridge 3.5-inch drives manufactured by SyQuest, Iomega and Castlewood and 95-mm cartridge media are included in Gartner Dataquest's desktop head and media calculations inch desktop HDDs, which used 130-mm diameter media, were mainstream in the 1980s, and some designs persisted until 1999, but this form factor is now extinct. Desktop-class HDDs are generally configured in single-user desktop/ deskside PCs. They are also used in low-end servers and storage systems as well as in new consumer products (such as personal video recorders and game stations). 3.5-inch and 5.25-inch enterprise HDDs (SCSI, SSA, SAS or FC-AL interfaces) 7,200-rpm enterprise HDDs use 95-mm diameter media in a 3.5-inch external form factor. 7,200-rpm, 3.5-inch enterprise-class drives will soon cease to exist. 10,000-rpm enterprise HDDs use 84-mm diameter media in a 3.5-inch external form factor. 15,000-rpm enterprise HDDs use 65-mm or 70-mm diameter media in a 3.5-inch external form factor. Fujitsu, Hitachi/IBM, Maxtor and Seagate are the only manufacturers of enterprise-class HDDs. 8-inch, 10-inch and 5.25-inch enterprise-class HDDs were mainstream in the 1980s and early 1990s. The last 8-inch and 10-inch enterprise drives were shipped in Some 5.25-inch enterprise designs, which used 130-mm diameter media, persisted until 1999, but this form factor is now extinct. Enterprise HDDs are generally configured in multiuser server and storagesystemapplications.someenterprise-classdrivesareusedin high-performance desktop/deskside computers. Major Findings Because of enormous advances in areal density and per-platter capacities, the average number of disks and heads used in diverse HDDs has declined. Annual consumption of media in HDDs dropped from 352 million in 1998 to 290 million in 2001, and head consumption decreased from 694 million to 529 million during the same period. However, in 2002, because of a richer mix of high-capacity products and overall unit-volume shipment increases, the number of consumed media disks actually increased, and the sequential annual decline in head consumption was minimal. Mobile HDD shipments increased by 5 million units (16 percent) in Mobile HDD consumption of media increased by 11.6 million units (27.1 percent), and mobile HDD consumption of heads increased by 22.3 million units (26.5 percent) in Desktop HDD shipments increased by 19 million units (13 percent) in Desktop HDD consumption of media increased by 14.9 million units (7.8 percent) in However, desktop HDD consumption of heads decreased by 1.5 million units (0.5 percent) in Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 12 March 2003

5 HDD Head and Media Markets Show Variable Growth and Decline, (Executive Summary) 3 Enterprise HDD shipments increased by 425,000 units (2 percent) in However, enterprise HDD consumption of media decreased by 17.1 million units (29.3 percent), and enterprise HDD consumption of heads decreased by 30.1 million units (26.7 percent) in Strong growth in the mobile and desktop segments was offset by tepid growth in enterprise unit-volume demand, but total HDD industry shipments increased by 12.3 percent (24 million units) in Total demand for HDD media increased by 3.3 percent (9.5 million units). Total demand for HDD heads decreased by 1.7 percent (9.2 million units). AveragenumberofdisksperHDDforallclassesofproductshasfallenfrom 2.4 in 1998 to 1.4 in Average number of heads per HDD for all classes of products has fallen from 4.8 in 1998 to 2.4 in For the full report, see the Gartner Dataquest Market Statistics document "HDD Head and Media Markets Show Variable Growth and Decline, " (HWST-WW-MS-0134) Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 12 March 2003