Production Surge Boosts Automotive Semiconductor Market

Transcription

1 Market Analysis Production Surge Boosts Automotive Semiconductor Market Abstract: Demand for automotive semiconductors revived in 2002, as car makers stepped up production. Consumer fears may stifle growth in 2003, but products like application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) offer new potential. By Mike Williams and Christian Heidarson Market Statements Of the top 10 worldwide vendors, two were based in the Americas, accounting for 14.7 percent of the worldwide market. Four were Japanese (18.8 percent) and four were European (22.9 percent). Texas Instruments was the only company among the top 10 vendors to lose revenue. The other nine companies increased revenue. The combined total revenue of the top 10 companies grew by 7.3 percent during 2002, from $6.9 billion to $7.4 billion. Gartner Dataquest s estimates for the automotive semiconductor market in 2002 show a growth of 4.3 percent to $13.1 billion. Publication Date: 17 July 2003

2 2 Production Surge Boosts Automotive Semiconductor Market Worldwide Automotive Semiconductor Application Market, 2002 The automotive semiconductor market displayed relative strength for a second year. It declined by 3.2 percent in 2001, while the semiconductor industry declined 32.0 percent. The automotive market recovered from a glut in 2001 and helped the automotive semiconductor market to grow by 4.3 percent during This was above the semiconductor industry average growth of 1.9 percent. Much of the growth came from semiconductor applications including enhanced powertrain electronics like direct injection engine control units, antilock braking systems with electronic stability program (ESP) or brake booster. Emerging applications that enjoyed healthy demand included airbag accelerometer sensors, rain sensors, ultrasonic parking sensors, telematics and yaw rate sensor integrated circuits. Top 30 Worldwide Vendor Rankings Table 1 shows Gartner Dataquest's top 30 ranking of worldwide automotive semiconductor application vendors for Revenue for 2001 is shown for comparison. The top 30 vendors held 79.0 percent of worldwide market share. Of the top 30 vendors, 13 were based in the Americas, accounting for 26.4 percent of the worldwide market, 11 were Japanese with 28.4 percent and only six were European, with 24.2 percent. Japan was only semiconductor vendor from the Asia/Pacific region in the top 30 rankings. The only six companies in the top 30 that experienced a fall in revenue were Texas Instruments, ON Semiconductor, Denso, Rohm, Sharp and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). The other 22 companies saw revenue growth. The combined total revenue of the top 30 companies grew by 6.8 percent during 2002, from $9.7 billion to $10.4 billion. Texas Instruments was the only top 10 vendor that lost revenue. The other nine companies increased revenue. The combined total revenue of the top 10 companies grew by 7.3 percent during 2002, from $6.9 billion to $7.4 billion.

3 3 Table 1 Top 30 Automotive Semiconductor Vendor Rankings by Revenue Worldwide, Motorola 1, , % 11.6% 11.6% 2 Infineon Technologies % 7.2% 18.7% 3 NEC Electronics % 6.6% 25.3% 4 STMicroelectronics % 6.2% 31.5% 5 Philips Semiconductors % 5.1% 36.6% 6 Toshiba % 4.7% 41.4% 7 Robert Bosch % 4.5% 45.8% 8 Fujitsu % 4.0% 49.8% 9 Hitachi % 3.5% 53.3% 10 Texas Instruments % 3.2% 56.5% 11 Intel % 2.5% 59.0% 12 Mitsubishi % 2.4% 61.4% 13 ON Semiconductor % 1.7% 63.1% 14 Matsushita % 1.7% 64.8% 15 Denso % 1.6% 66.4% 16 Rohm % 1.5% 67.9% 17 Vishay % 1.4% 69.3% 18 Oki % 1.0% 70.3% 19 National Semiconductor % 1.0% 71.3% 20 Microchip Technology % 1.0% 72.3% 21 International Rectifier % 0.9% 73.1% 22 Atmel % 0.8% 74.0% 23 Sharp % 0.8% 74.8% 24 Elmos Semiconductors % 0.7% 75.5% 25 American Microsystems % 0.6% 76.1% 26 Advanced Micro Devices % 0.6% 76.7% 27 Analog Devices % 0.6% 77.3% 28 Sanyo % 0.6% 77.9% 29 Melexis % 0.6% 78.5% 30 Allegro MicroSystems % 0.6% 79.0% Others 2, , % 21.0% 100.0% Total 12, , % 100.0% This market is very heavily concentrated. The top 10 vendors account for more than 55 percent of the total market. This is because automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) believe in vendors that show their commitment to the automotive industry and largely retain the established automotive semiconductor vendors as their preferred suppliers. Automotive electronics products have relatively long production cycles (compared with other electronics markets) of five to 10 years to support a typical automotive life cycle of 10 years. Suppliers tend to enjoy a relatively predictable and stable business plan for semiconductor and component supply. This makes the automotive market attractive to semiconductor vendors. However, car manufacturers are using electronics as a product differentiator. The introduction of new electronics systems in cars is often accompanied by a new set of component suppliers. This regularly offers other semiconductor vendors an opportunity to enter the device supply market.

4 4 Production Surge Boosts Automotive Semiconductor Market The largest families of semiconductor products are microcontroller units (MCUs) and application-specific standard products (ASSPs), which account for 53 percent of the total device market for automotive applications. Figure 1 shows market share by device family for the automotive semiconductor market in Figure 1 Automotive Semiconductor Market by Device Family, 2002 Smart Power (7%) Discrete (14%) ASIC (7%) Memory (7%) Standard Analog (5%) Sensors (4%) Optical (2%) Microprocessor (2%) Standard Logic (1%) ASSP (18%) Microcontroller (34%) Automotive Semiconductor Market, 2002 $13 Billion Top 10 Regional Vendor Rankings Tables 2 to 5 present our preliminary top 10 regional automotive semiconductor vendor rankings for North America, Europe, Japan, Asia/Pacific and rest of the world regions. Automotive manufacturers work very closely with their suppliers, and the location of their supplier affects the success of new product development. This is reflected in the regional market share rankings, where local semiconductor vendors have a strong presence.

5 5 Table 2 Top 10 Automotive Semiconductor Vendor Rankings by Revenue North America, Motorola % 22.3% 22.3% 2 Philips Semiconductors % 6.9% 29.3% 3 Infineon Technologies % 6.2% 35.4% 4 STMicroelectronics % 6.0% 41.5% 5 Texas Instruments % 6.0% 47.5% 6 ON Semiconductor % 5.1% 52.6% 7 NEC Electronics % 2.9% 55.5% 8 Intel % 2.5% 58.0% 9 Analog Devices % 1.8% 59.8% 10 Robert Bosch % 1.8% 61.6% Others 1, , % 38.4% 100.0% Total 3, , % 100.0% Table 3 Top 10 Automotive Semiconductor Vendor Rankings by Revenue Europe, Infineon Technologies % 12.9% 12.9% 2 Motorola % 10.5% 23.4% 3 Robert Bosch % 9.7% 33.1% 4 STMicroelectronics % 8.6% 41.7% 5 Philips Semiconductors % 6.5% 48.3% 6 Intel % 4.7% 53.0% 7 NEC Electronics % 2.9% 55.9% 8 Texas Instruments % 2.3% 58.1% 9 Vishay % 1.8% 59.9% 10 Fujitsu % 1.6% 61.5% Others 1, , % 38.5% 100.0% Total 4, , % 100.0% Table 4 Top 10 Automotive Semiconductor Vendor Rankings by Revenue Japan, NEC Electronics % 17.3% 17.3% 2 Toshiba % 13.7% 31.0% 3 Fujitsu % 9.3% 40.3% 4 Hitachi % 8.6% 48.9% 5 Mitsubishi % 8.2% 57.1% 6 Matsushita % 4.6% 61.6% 7 Rohm % 4.5% 66.1% 8 Denso % 3.4% 69.4% 9 Sharp % 2.6% 72.1% 10 Motorola % 2.6% 74.7% Others % 25.3% 100.0% Total 3, , % 100.0%

6 6 Production Surge Boosts Automotive Semiconductor Market Table 5 Top 10 Automotive Semiconductor Vendor Rankings by Revenue Asia/Pacific and Rest of World, Motorola % 11.0% 11.0% 2 STMicroelectronics % 8.6% 19.6% 3 Toshiba % 5.1% 24.7% 4 Texas Instruments % 5.0% 29.7% 5 Hitachi % 5.0% 34.6% 6 Philips Semiconductors % 4.9% 39.6% 7 Fujitsu % 4.8% 44.3% 8 Matsushita % 2.6% 46.9% 9 Infineon Technologies % 2.6% 49.5% 10 Microchip Technology % 2.0% 51.5% Others % 48.5% 100.0% Total 1, , % 100.0% Gartner Dataquest Perspective Many vendors saw outstanding performance in automotive semiconductor revenue growth, following a surprise recovery in automobile production in the second half of But we remain cautious for the rest of With prevailing economic conditions, we expect consumer confidence to be lower for the remainder of Most consumers are therefore likely to postpone new car purchases for at least another year, or until the economic outlook improves. On the upside, statistics for light vehicles on the road show an increasingly ageing stock, which indicates that numerous models of cars are due for replacement. However, with a depressed used-car market, residual values remain weak, which does not augur well for new car purchases involving part exchanges. This makes the new car market even more competitive and automotive manufacturers will continue to depend on electronics systems as a differentiator. Electronics is being used as a competitive tool in the automotive market in areas like door modules (power window lifters, sunroof, mirrors) auto stereos (CD and DVD players) airbag installations, antilock braking systems (ABS), Electronic stability control, auto GPS navigation and telematics. Tire pressure monitors are expected to begin gaining market share in the U.S. sport utility vehicle market from the third quarter of Recommendations Semiconductor vendors need to maintain their competitive edge in the automotive markets in these uncertain market conditions. Vendors must exploit opportunities that help achieve higher average selling prices for devices shipping to the automotive segment. For example, through the development of ASSPs for some of the volume product or high-growth emerging markets in the automotive industry. There is an increasing number of new electronics systems in the automotive market, such as Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation, telematics modules, dashboard electronics and climate control electronics. Vendors in the application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) and the automotive system-on-chip (SOC) markets should

7 7 exploit opportunities of integrating system function on chip to reduce overall semiconductor costs in these new applications. Definitions and Methodology Gartner Dataquest includes semiconductor products that are found in in-car entertainment electronics, driver information electronics, powertrain electronics, body control electronics, and automotive safety and convenience electronics in its definition of the automotive semiconductor market. We track more than 40 companies worldwide for the annual semiconductor automotive market share study. Primary and secondary research is used to produce market statistics data. Primary research involves surveying companies directly, whereas secondary research uses companies' public financial reports, trade association information, such as World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) and other sources. This allows us to verify market size, shipment totals and pricing information. The estimates presented are for the calendar year and Gartner Dataquest believes they are the most accurate and meaningful statistics available. This is the first time that Gartner Dataquest has included revenue from shipments of sensors in the automotive semiconductor rankings. In the case of acquisitions or sales of semiconductor businesses, partial or complete ownership determines market share on the final day of the calendar year. Consequently, companies that sold semiconductor businesses during 2001 are listed with decreased revenue, while those that made acquisitions are listed with increased revenue. Key Issue Who are the major semiconductor chip providers in key application markets? What is their market share?

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