Public Infrastructure: What s in Store for 2003?
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1 Forecast Analysis Public Infrastructure: What s in Store for 2003? Abstract: The markets for public infrastructure equipment will remain weak until 2004 because of scaled-back carrier capital spending, sporadic overcapacity and uncertain regulatory/competitive initiatives. By Tim Smith, Jason Chapman, John Mazur, Peter Kjeldsen, Frank Fabricius, Bettina Tratz- Ryan, Verne Anton Strategic Forecast Statements 2003 will be a year of stabilization in public network infrastructure markets; the market will be flat when compared with Selected product markets will show growth again this year; these include service provider routers, metro wave division multiplexing (WDM) equipment and optical exchange equipment (OXE). Asia/Pacific will show small growth this year, while North America and Europe will be slightly down. Publication Date: 18 February 2003
2 2 Public Infrastructure: What's in Store for 2003? Overall Behavior 2003 will be a year of stabilization for public network infrastructure markets. The steep declines of the past two years are over, and selected markets will begin to show modest growth trends again. This year will be essentially flat when compared with 2002 (see Table 1). Regionally, this market flatness is a product of slow growth in Asia/Pacific and a slight continued decline in North America and Europe. Table 1 Worldwide Infrastructure Market Growth by Region, (Billions of Dollars) Region Asia/Pacific Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East and Africa North America Western Europe Total Source: Gartner Dataquest (February 2003) Alternative Scenarios Although our expectation is that the market will be flat, the extreme volatility that has existed during the past two years has not yet disappeared. As a result, the potential exists for variance. Negative Variance The first alternative is that this year becomes a year of continued steep declines. This scenario would result in a market decline of about 10 percent. The following factors could cause this behavior: A protracted war in the Middle East or elsewhere Major acts of terrorism (including cyberterrorism) Stalled economic recovery in some major countries Significant cases of corporate scandal, failure in major enterprises or both Continued slow adoption of end-user data services Positive Variance The other alternative is that this year becomes a year of accelerated growth. This scenario would result in market growth of 5 percent. The following factors could cause this behavior: Service degradation leading to emergency infrastructure enhancement Aggressive (revenue-generating) service initiatives by service providers leading to a capital expenditure rebound Major public initiatives for communications systems
3 Accelerated traffic growth from traditional services Regulatory reform leading to accelerated broadband access deployment and traffic growth It should be noted that regulatory reform having a material impact during this year is unlikely. It should be considered as a longer-term growth factor. 3 Assessment of the Infrastructure Technology Markets Table 2 shows expected market performance broken down by major infrastructure technology markets. The key factors shaping the forecast for each area are discussed. Table 2 Worldwide Infrastructure Market Growth by Technology, (Billions of Dollars) Region Signaling Access Transport Switching Mobile Support Total Source: Gartner Dataquest (February 2003) Switching We look at switching from two perspectives: current-generation (or time division multiplexing) and next-generation (or packet) technology. The dynamics of the switching market are clear. Current-generation technology is in the decline phase, and next-generation technology is in the growth phase. The key indicator to watch is how and when the increase in spending on next-generation technology overcomes the decline in spending in current-generation technology to create year-over-year growth in switching system revenue. We expect this to happen in However, cost efficiencies of packet equipment, compared with circuit equipment, result in a market that is considerably smaller than when circuit technology ruled. This year, we expect a continued rapid decline in current-generation technology markets in every region except Asia/Pacific, where some growth is still expected. This growth is driven by basic infrastructure deployment in India and China. This year, we expect modest growth (3 percent) to return to the nextgeneration switching market. Continuing growth in traffic demand for Internet and packet services creates the potential for positive variance (greater than anticipated growth) in the market.
4 4 Public Infrastructure: What's in Store for 2003? Access After steep declines in 2001 and 2002, we expect that this year will be a transition year in which revenue declines moderate and markets stabilize and position for further growth. Broadband adoption/deployment, driven by demand for packet-oriented services, is the engine that will fuel growth in access technology. The adoption/deployment of broadband is tightly linked to regulatory policy. This is the major cause of variance among the regional scenarios for access technology. For example, the difficult regulatory scenario in the United States leads to a continuing decline in the access forecast in North America for this year. A positive change in regulatory policy could lead to a more positive market performance in the future. The scenarios in Europe and Asia/Pacific are more positive. Signaling The signaling market is a small but critical part of the infrastructure scenario. The key trends that will be evident this year are the ongoing evolution of the Signaling System 7 network to IP transport and the growing importance of Session Initiation Protocol as the preferred protocol for signaling in next-generation converged IP networks. This year, the result of these trends is a slightly growing market driven mainly by the movement to IP transport. Optical Transport During the five-year forecast period, investments will gradually shift from traditional equipment such as classic synchronous digital hierarchy/synchronous optical network (SDH/SONET) and digital crossconnects to equipment such as next-generation SDH/SONET, metro WDM and OXE. The long-haul dense WDM segment has been severely impacted by overcapacity in core networks but will remain an important segment in the longer term. For operators in industrialized nations, investment will make a relative shift from the core to the metro network as broadband penetration increases. Key forecast assumptions for this year include an improved, stable global economy in the second half of the year, sustained optical technology improvement and cost reductions as this market continues its correction from the past few years. The net result is that this year will produce a much more stable market and show slight growth. However, this growth is driven primarily from Asia/Pacific, with North America and Europe again experiencing declines. However, these declines will be much more moderate than in 2001 and Many factors contributed to regional differences in the optical equipment market. Relative to 2000 revenue, North America was the most severely hit by the changes to the economic climate. However, hype for optical technology was the most extreme in North America, so 2000 revenue was more inflated than in other regions. Latin America and Western Europe have been severely hit by the economy, whereas the other regions have been more resilient to changes in the market.
5 5 OSS The operations support system (OSS) market is fundamentally different from the other markets that make up the public network infrastructure scenario. While the other markets consist of hardware and resident software components, the OSS market consists of independent software components as well as internal and external professional services used to implement the support environment. As such, the OSS market often behaves differently than the other hardware-oriented markets. However, in the environment of severely curtailed service provider spending, even the OSS market is showing sluggish performance. Because of the everchanging environment of the industry, OSSs are becoming obsolete more quickly than in the past and require replacements or upgrades more frequently. This will be the driver for renewed moderate growth late this year. Investments in OSS generally lead to operational efficiencies, and cost savings. These potential benefits create the opportunity for positive variance as service providers look to streamline operations and enhance free cash flow. Mobile Infrastructure Mobile infrastructure is the most stable of the infrastructure technology markets, although significant operator reductions with capital spending have impacted revenue. Mobile subscriber growth is flattening in the mature markets, with more emphasis placed on generational migration such as from global system for mobile communications (GSM) to general packet relay service (GPRS) and universal mobile telecommunications system (UMTS). These migrations are still heavily dependent on end-user adoption of mobile data services such as multimedia messaging. While 2002 was the year of packet data service platform deployments, Gartner Dataquest anticipates that this year will see the start of end-user adoption. The market will see the first launches of third-generation (3G) UMTS networks, which are positioned as evolutionary rather than revolutionary moves for the operators. In addition to investments in network migration, mobile operators will have to compensate for the underinvestment made in 2002 in voice networks. Voice capacity and quality of service have suffered to enable operators to begin to address the harsh financial ramifications of 3G license investments and slower growth rates. Operators will start to address these issues as well as look to invest in next-generation networks. In emerging markets such as Latin America and Eastern Europe, subscriber penetration rates are still continuing to grow and represent the good potential for infrastructure vendors. In these emerging markets, the potential is for the major mobile standards, GSM and code division multiple access (CDMA), to do well. Regional technology variations remain, with CDMA being strong in regions such as Latin America and GSM being well-positioned in Eastern Europe. Although price erosion and competition is fierce, these markets are set for continued expansion from voice networks in the short term to next-generation networks as the markets seek to follow the mature data-oriented regions such as Asia/Pacific.
6 6 Public Infrastructure: What's in Store for 2003? After another year of declining revenue for mobile infrastructure vendors in 2002, this year will be flat, with revenue beginning to increase in 2004 as large-scale next-generation network deployment results in market growth. Contract announcements and sales should start to increase, helping to support the longer-term growth potential for the mobile infrastructure market as revenue recognition lags these announcements. Gartner Dataquest Perspective The most likely scenario is that this year becomes one of stabilization, with little change in market size when compared with The second most likely alternative is that this year becomes one of continued decline, resulting in a 10 percent drop in market size. The least likely alternative is that this year becomes the beginning of a stronger growth pattern, resulting in a 5 percent increase in market size. In any case, several of the positive variance factors will become reality, and starting in 2004, the positive forces will outweigh the negative. Key Issue When, and how, will growth return to telecom infrastructure markets? This document has been published to the following Marketplace codes: TELC-WW-DP-0313 For More Information... In North America and Latin America: In Europe, the Middle East and Africa: In Asia/Pacific: In Japan: Worldwide via gartner.com: Entire contents 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice
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