State Of The Satellite Industry Report

Transcription

1 State Of The Satellite Industry Report June 2005 Sponsored by the Prepared by Futron Corporation 1

2 Satellite Industry Overview Satellite Manufacturing Satellite Manufacturing Component and Subsystem Manufacturing Satellite Services DBS/DARS Fixed Satellite Services Voice, Video, Data VSATs Remote Sensing Transponder Leasing Mobile Satellite Services Mobile Telephony Data/Messaging Ground Equipment Mobile Terminals Gateways Control Stations VSATs & USATs DBS Dishes Handheld Phones DARS Equipment Launch Industry Launch Services Vehicle Manufacturing Component and Subsystem Manufacturing 2

3 World Satellite Industry Revenues $73.1 $78.6 $86.1 $91.1 $97.2 $38.0 $49.1 $55.0 $60.4 Rate of change 29.3% 12.1% 9.7% 21.1% 7.5% 9.6% 5.8% 6.7% 3

4 World Satellite Services Revenue $38.6 $46.5 $49.1 $56.0 $60.9 $15.8 $21.1 $ 24.4 $29.7 FSS $ 6.1 $ 6.8 $ 7.3 $ 8.6 $ 9.2 $ 8.9 $ 8.7 $ 9.7 $ 9.4 MSS $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.4 $ 1.3 $ 1.7 $ 2.0 DBS $ 9.0 $ 13.5 $ 16.1 $ 19.8 $ 27.9 $ 36.2 $ 39.1 $ 44.7 $ 49.5 FSS=VSAT services, remote sensing, and transponder leasing MSS=Mobile telephone and mobile data DBS/DARS=DTH TV, DARS, and Broadband 4

5 Satellite Manufacturing Revenues N.B. Satellite Manufacturing revenues are recorded in the year the satellite is delivered/launched, not when contract is awarded 5

6 Launch Industry Revenues N.B. - Launch Industry revenues are recorded in the year the launch occurs, not when contract is awarded. 6

7 Number of Satellites/Launches Global Supply vs. Demand GEO Communications Satellites and Launches Launches Satellite Capacity Satellites Ordered Launch Capacity 7

8 World Ground Equipment Revenues $9.7 $12.5 $13.9 $16.0 $17.7 $19.6 $21.2 $22.1 $23.3 Includes: Gateways, NOCs, Satellite News Gathering equipment, flyaways, VSATs, DBS Dishes, DARS equipment, satellite phone booths, satellite phones 8

9 Industry Analysis In 2004, the global satellite industry continued to grow, due to the strength of the Satellite Services sector. Government communications spending and strong consumer demand for video services were the key drivers of this growth, with deployment of new user applications and equipment in both markets. Despite falling prices and profit margins in most sectors, several trends indicate growth for the satellite industry over the next few years: HDTV and the opening of new and competitive consumer video markets around the world Continued strength in Government/Military spending Revival of satellite manufacturing orders 9

10 Satellite Technology Trends Satellites are becoming more sophisticated, more efficient, higher power -- creating highly capable super- computers-in-the-sky Today satellite systems are more efficient than ever before: Smaller dishes allow for more users; Higher power allows for more applications; Higher order modulation schemes allow for more data throughput (i.e. reduced costs); Spot beams allow for frequency reuse; 10

11 Emerging Services/Applications Broadband Connectivity to Homes/Offices Hughes Network Systems Direcway / Spaceway Americom-to-Home WildBlue Mobile Broadband Services Comms on the Move In-motion: Transmit and Receive on-the-go Multi-Mb inbound to vehicle, up to 500kbs+ out Valuable for Network Centric Operations Consumer Focused Satellite Services Ancillary Terrestrial Component (ATC) Satellite Radio Broadband Connectivity to Aircraft Forward link: 10 Mbps Return link: Kbps /Internet access 11

12 Satellites Are Critical Infrastructure Early 2003 GAO Report re: Commercial Satellite Infrastructure Commercial Satellite Security Should Be More Fully Addressed January 2003 Homeland Security Act Satellite Communications Infrastructure Is Critical National Infrastructure May 2004 NSTAC Satellite Task Force Report to President Commercial Satellite Industry Is Critical To Our National, Economic, and Homeland Security December 2004 Satcom Policy Memo and Action Plan from OSD/NII DoD Must Build Commercial SATCOM Into The Wideband Milsatcom Architecture Early 2005 National Security Space Policy TBD 12

13 DoD Use Of Satcom Since 9/11/01 the DoD has become our single largest customer FY 2004 FSS Airtime ~ $350M FY 2004 MSS Airtime ~ $175M FY 2004 Commercial SATCOM Equipment ~ $200M Forecasts predict that by 2010 Demand could exceed Supply by ~ 12 Gbps Commercial satellite industry has gone from augmentation resources to strategic partners for USG Agencies and the DoD 13

14 Current DoD Commercial Satcom Procurement Global DoD Satellite Communications Requirements DSTS-G Contractors Global Satellite Operators D I S A Requirements Turn Key Requirements Space Segment 14

15 Multi-Year Support From Hill Language in HASC Reported H.R National Defense Authorization Act of 2006 Commercial communications bandwidth The committee recognizes the important contribution commercial satellite communications systems provide to military operations. The need for commercial bandwidth to supplement military systems will remain a requirement into the future. As a result, the committee believes a long-term commitment to the appropriate use of commercial satellite communications capacity is in the U.S. government's best interest. The committee believes a multi-year procurement strategy with the use of annual contract options would provide sufficient commitment to industry and provide the government ample flexibility to terminate work as necessary. The committee recommends use of this alternative to procure commercial bandwidth to support military operations for those cases where it is the most efficient and effective procurement method. 15

16 Problems With U.S. Export Controls Lack of Transparency and Predictability Increase costs and delays Widely Available Technologies Deny high-tech industries in the U.S. a level playing field Lack of Tiered System Allies are examined under the same scrutiny as rogue states Extra-Territorial Reach On Components Foreign manufacturers wary of U.S. components Lack of Understanding Commercial Communications Satellites Differ from Military/ Scientific/ Civil Satellites and Launch Vehicles 16

17 Satellite Business Factors Satellite Services Lower Transponder Rates Higher Insurance Costs Industry Consolidation Export Controls DBS/DARS Access To Adequate Spectrum Competition With Terrestrial Giants Satellite Manufacturing/Launch Overcapacity Export Controls Ground Equipment Interference with Terrestrial/Unlicensed Devices Foreign Licensing/Market Access 17