Mobile Satellite Services, 8 th Edition

Transcription

1 Report Briefing

2 Report Description Amidst an uncertain environment where funding is leveling off due to government budget reductions, mobility via satellite has reached a new level of recognition across the board and is expanding its reach across the globe. With more than a halfmillion subscribers on the Iridium platform, Inmarsat having completed designs for three highpower Ka-band satellites, and Globalstar successfully launching the first 18 of its nextgeneration satellite constellation, the MSS market is poised for the next phase of growth. NSR has researched and followed growth in the Mobile Satellite Services (MSS) market since its inception, and this coverage enables a complete assessment of MSS opportunities worldwide. NSR's Mobile Satellite Services, 8th Edition report is a key element of this industry-leading research effort and is a must-have for anyone tracking future demand for satellite-based mobility solutions. Sounding out the ebb and flows of the MSS market as it navigates to new shores with more handsets, greater bandwidth solutions and new products that are blurring the lines between MSS and FSS providers, this report is the definitive tool to help you track the evolution of this everchanging marketplace. It will help answer fundamental questions about the MSS market such as: What trends and drivers are affecting the MSS market? What are the main markets in terms of in-service units and revenues by platform and for each frequency? What will be the impact of increased competition by VSAT providers on L-Band services, and vice-versa? What is the market share of operators in the handheld segment? Will there be more consolidation in the operator and the service provider markets? Which mobility platform or service will experience the biggest growth in the short-, medium and long-term? Are there still greenfield opportunities and if so, which ones will be the most important in the coming decade? What level of demand for satellite bandwidth and capacity will emerge in each frequency band, platform and region? Bottom Line: How does NSR see the MSS market developing over the next 10 years in each region and for each segment of the market?

3 The NSR Difference Previous editions of NSR's MSS report indicated that satellites with unprecedented amounts of capacity would lead to a strong battle between MSS and FSS operators, which we are seeing now particularly in maritime markets. However, NSR's reports also noted that even if subscriber base growth would be concentrated mostly in data services, these would not generate enough revenues to ensure future growth prospects. Thus the 'coalition' efforts noted by NSR between MSS and FSS operators to move clients to Ku- and Ka-band, while keeping L- band as a back-up and critical communications solutions, has been validated for a growing number of maritime, aeronautical and land-mobile customers. The solid track record and proven methodology to assess this market is what underpins NSR's Mobile Satellite Services, 8th Edition report. The report analyzes the speed at which these changes take place and where the MSS market will grow in the decade ahead. This longest-running report on the MSS market provides a completely updated assessment to give readers highly valuable information and data points to examine where the market is headed globally and by region. NSR's Mobile Satellite Services, 8th Edition offers an objective view of the trends underlying the growth and the major impact of drivers and restraints to growth in both commercial and government segments. By evaluating and forecasting in-service units, equipment and services revenues, average revenues per user, and capacity demand for mobility services, NSR provides the most complete and thorough analysis of expectations in the MSS market for the next ten years.

4 Unparalleled Market Forecasts This report provides readers with forecasts on key industry parameters to assess the success of various markets: In-Service Unit Forecasts for satellite handhelds, voice and data terminals for maritime, aeronautical and land-mobile platforms as well as new HTS services. Retail and Wholesale Revenues Forecasts to provide not only total services but also equipment retail revenues, showing how revenues scale along the value chain for each platform and by frequency. Furthermore, the relevant Average Revenues per User (ARPU) figures are segmented along both retail and wholesale revenues to help assess the revenue-generation capabilities of users and a variety of categories of services and types of equipment. Transponder Demand Forecasts segmented along the main commercial FSS frequencies (C-, Ku- and Ka-band) and the new HTS satellites Commercial/enterprise and Government/military Forecasts to assess the precise customer demand trends by segment Who Should Purchase this Report: Mobile Satellite Services (MSS) and Fixed Satellite Services (FSS) Operators Distributors, Service Providers, and Resellers Network Service Providers Satellite Manufacturers Financial Institutions Evaluating Investment and Returns in the MSS Market Terminal, Antenna, Smartphone and Handset Manufacturers Oil & Gas, Shipping, Cruise Lines, and Maritime Players looking to understand the MSS Market Airlines as well as Fleet Owners Expanding their Mobile Services Regulators Evaluating MSS Market Offerings and Spectrum Utilizations Agencies Funding Pre-Competitive Telecom Research and Development Space Agencies and First Responder Organizations MSS Users in both Commercial and Government/Military Organizations A Complete Analytical Perspective Elements of this study include: Complete report document segmented by analysis on all regions, players, market opportunity and demand trends An Excel file containing all data and graphs so the client can easily use this work as a basis for their own internal market projections A summary PowerPoint file containing a summary of all report findings and data. Have Questions on the Content or Scope of this Report? Please Click Here to E mail Your Questions to the Report Author

5 Executive Summary The MSS market will offer solid growth over the coming ten years, even if in the last year the results were less than stellar and some parts of the market dipped. It remained on a positive trend over the last five years with increased interest in mobility in both commercial and in government markets despite budget cuts. From 2011 to 2021, the global mobile satellite services market will grow from 2.2 million to 4.8 million in-service units at a compound annual growth rate of 7.9%. It is expected to generate $10.3 billion in total retail revenues in 2021 from $4.9 billion in With an estimated 140 satellites to be launched in the coming years, the mobile satellite services market should see a ten-year addition of 2.5 million new subscribers and another $5.3 billion in annual retail revenues. And that is in a market where MSS operators face increased competition from their FSS counterparts as well as upcoming high-throughput satellites (HTS). 2,500,000 Total MSS Addressable Markets by Platform Addressable Market 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Maritime Aeronautical Land Mobile Source : NSR Speaking of which, some facts and some fiction (as well as some unknowns) surround this new type of satellite (HTS) that can literally change the face of the market. Susceptible to rain? Yes. Fades quicker than Ku-band? No. Users need a radome? Yes. No impact to adjusting power levels to mitigate rain? Not so sure Good quality of service? Probably. The value proposition of mobility is also changing with a more diverse portfolio, but there remain two main avenues for mobility users to take: narrowband or broadband services. These are now in a tug of war where one dishes out high volumes of smaller, cheaper units, while the other churns out bulky expensive hardware offering data rates in the megabits per second. This plays out differently depending on what platform is used, but the certainty is this: both will grow and do very well, but at different paces and for different subscribers.

6 What portion of the market will be for narrowband and broadband services? We need to look at the addressable markets to get a general idea of the direction to take. Global Mobile Satellite In Service Units by Platform In Service Units (000s) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Land Mobile Aeronautical Maritime Satellite Handheld Source : NSR The first historical market is maritime, where continued solid growth is expected over the next ten years. But the story is again twofold: growth in this number tells only the side of story of narrowband units that bring in only about $180 in ARPU per month and are going down, due to constant losses of voice customers. The other side is with broadband units, which only add 10% of the new units but will bring at least $1,200 in ARPU every month and over $2.5 billion in total revenues in Then the handheld market must be considered, which is touted as the core of the MSS operator business where competition was supposed to make things better. Well, it did not. Subscriber numbers overall are flat, but should pick-up and drive equipment sales. But revenues are down and will only slowly crawl out of the slump with low single-digit growth rates for the foreseeable future what is wrong then with this market? For one thing, it belongs to one operator (Iridium) that is not leaving much space to others who fail for various reasons to provide a competitive solution and gain market share. Their dismal ARPU levels only mean that it is a tough nut to crack, and it is for keepers. The aeronautical MSS market is, well a breath of fresh air on which these airplanes glide. It is a surprisingly uplifting market to carefully assess given the ups and down (pardon the pun) of its relationship with satellite connectivity, in particular for Internet access onboard. There are not that many platforms to outfit, so it is a special case. Aeronautical service providers that are also equipment manufacturers and operators of satellites stand to win the most in this space over the next decade. Currently, there is only one company that does all of the above: Viasat. It is a market that will grow the most from today s $870 million of revenues but remains for the most part a narrowband market, which will still bring in $2.3 billion at the end of the ten-year period.

7 Finally, on the ground, when will all the 2.3 million-strong potential addressable land-mobile clients be outfitted with satellite gear? Never is the answer. Approximately 50% of that number has satellite units, but these will grow in step with a growing number of truck, reefers, containers, trailers, tanks, Humvees, and so on that shows a 5% annual increase every year. One thing however is certain: L-band service rule in the land-mobile market. Period. There is the final story to close the chapter on this forecast about the demand for capacity. Once there were subscribers complaining of lack of satellite bandwidth when they were sailing to a remote island in the Pacific. With an expected 300 transponders of demand in the market, and new satellite constellations with an order of magnitude in capacity growth, will there be enough to satisfy the demanding customers? Will it be available, at the right price, the right coverage, the right amount? That open ticket is supposed to be closed by HTS, an acronym for a breed of satellites that is set to take huge capacity and deliver ten times the speed of traditional satellites for a fraction of the cost. The jury is still out as to the possibility of making it happen, but HTS is forecast to grab $685 million in 2021, compared to FSS capacity worth $900 million, a smaller but important portion of revenues that otherwise would go to FSS and L-band. Will there be a final chapter in the race to gain subscribers and revenues at the same time? Probably not, as the market is mostly a two-horse race between those that offer simplicity, low cost and low data rates and the other side, which has more complexity, higher prices but tons of capacity. Global Mobile Satellite Revenues by Platform $millions 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Land Mobile Aeronautical Maritime Satellite Handheld 4,000 2, Source : NSR

8 Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary 2. Definition, Context and Trends 2.1 Definition 2.2 Addressable Markets Maritime Aeronautical Land-Mobile By Segment 2.3 MSS Satellites to be Built and Launched HTS or Bust? 2.4 Business Concerns Mountains of Debts Consolidation: A Means to an End? Competition and Cornering the Market 2.5 Regulatory Environment Spectrum: No Change is Good Change Licensing Trumps 2.6 Technical Hurdles Ka-band Rain Fade: Fact or Fiction? 2.7 Main Trends Digging for Data Airborne and Connected Moving at Megabits per Second 3. MSS Ecosystem 3.1 MSS Operators Financial Indicators Market Value and Capitalization Subscribers and Revenues 3.2 Market Share Trends by Segment 3.3 MSS Operators Handheld Market Share Global By Segment By Region 3.4 FSS Operators Market Share Trends Revenues Subscribers 3.5 FSS vs. MSS Market Share 3.6 Services Providers and Resellers

9 3.6.1 Maritime Aeronautical Land-Mobile 4. Global Forecast 4.1 In-Service Units and Revenues 4.2 By Frequency Band 4.3 By Service Type and Platform 4.4 Commercial and Government/Military Demand 4.5 Transponder and Bandwidth Demand 4.6 Comparison with Previous NSR MSS Report Editions 5. Satellite Handheld Forecast 5.1 Global Satellite Handheld Market 5.2 Handheld Segments Commercial/Enterprise Government/Military 5.3 Comparison with Previous NSR MSS Report Editions 6. Maritime Forecast 6.1 Maritime Narrowband Forecast L-Band Voice L-Band Data 6.2 Maritime Broadband Forecast C-Band Ku-Band L-Band HTS 6.4 Maritime Segments 6.5 Comparison with Previous NSR MSS Report Editions 7. Aeronautical Forecast 7.1 Aeronautical Narrowband Forecast 7.2 Aeronautical Broadband Forecast Ku-Band L-Band HTS 7.3 Aeronautical Segments 7.4 Comparison with Previous NSR MSS Report Editions 8. Land-Mobile Forecast 8.1 Land-Mobile Narrowband Forecast L-Band Voice L-Band Data

10 8.2 Land-Mobile Broadband Forecast Ku-Band L-Band HTS 8.3 Land-Mobile Segments 8.4 Comparison with Previous NSR MSS Report Editions 9. Capacity Demand Forecast 9.1 Maritime Capacity Demand C-Band Ku-Band HTS 9.2 Aeronautical Capacity Demand Ku-Band HTS 9.3 Land-Mobile Capacity Demand Ku-Band HTS Appendix A. Forecast Methodology A.1 Regional Definition A.2 General Approach A.3 Forecast Steps A.4 MSS Handheld Market Forecast Model

11 List of Exhibits Ex. 2.1 Platform Definitions for Mobile Satellite Services Ex. 2.2 Segment Definitions for Mobile Satellite Services Ex. 2.3 Maritime Addressable Market Definition Ex. 2.4 Total Maritime Addressable Market Ex. 2.5 Aeronautical Addressable Market Definition Ex. 2.6 Total Aeronautical Addressable Market Ex. 2.7 Land-Mobile Addressable Market Definition Ex. 2.8 Total Land-Mobile Addressable Market Ex. 2.9 MSS Addressable Markets by Segment Ex Total Commercial/Enterprise Addressable Market by Platform Ex Total Government/Military Addressable Market by Platform Ex Planned MSS Satellites by Operators Ex Planned MSS Satellites by Operators by Planned Year of Launch, Ex Global MSS Satellite Launches, Ex Comparison of Future MSS Satellite Launches, Ex. 3.1 MSS Operators Ownership and Shareholders, 2011 Ex. 3.2 MSS Operators Revenues and Market Capitalization, Ex. 3.3 MSS Operators Market Capitalization, Ex. 3.4 MSS Operators Revenues and Subscribers by Satellite Orbit, Ex. 3.5 Global MSS Operators Market Share by Subscribers, 2011 Ex. 3.6 Global MSS Operators Revenues, Ex. 3.7 Global MSS Operators Market Share by Revenues, 2011 Ex. 3.8 Global MSS Operators Commercial Segment Market Share by Subscribers, 2011 Ex. 3.9 Global MSS Operators Government Segment Market Share by Subscribers, 2011 Ex Global MSS Handheld Market Share by Subscribers, Ex Global MSS Operators Handheld Market Share by Subscribers, 2011 Ex Global MSS Operators Handheld Market Share by Service Revenues, 2011 Ex Global MSS Handheld In-Service Units by Segment, 2011 Ex Global MSS Handheld In-Service Units by Region, 2011 Ex Global FSS Operators Mobility Market Share by Revenues, 2011 Ex MSS and FSS Operators Mobility Market Share by Revenues, 2011 Ex VSAT Maritime Service Providers C-Band Market Share by In-Service Units, 2011 Ex VSAT Maritime Service Providers Ku-Band Market Share by In-Service Units, 2011 Ex VSAT Maritime Service Providers Market Share by In-Service Units, 2011 Ex VSAT Maritime Service Providers Market Share by Revenues, 2011 Ex Service Providers Signed Commercial Passenger Airlines Contracts, Q Ex Sample List of Land-Mobile VSAT Antenna Manufacturers

12 Ex. 4.1 Global Mobile Satellite Services Market Ex. 4.2 Main Assumption for Global Mobile Satellite In-Services Units Scenarios Ex. 4.3 Global Mobile Satellite In-Service Units by Scenario Ex. 4.4 Global Mobile Satellite In-Service Units by Region Ex. 4.5 Global Mobile Satellite Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex. 4.6 Global Mobile Satellite Retail and Wholesale ARPU Ex. 4.7 Global Mobile Satellite Retail Equipment Revenues Ex. 4.8 Global Mobile Satellite Retail Services Revenues Ex. 4.9 Global Mobile Satellite Wholesale Services Revenues Ex Global Mobile Satellite Total Retail Revenues Ex Global Mobile Satellite Units by Frequency Band Ex Global Mobile Satellite Revenues by Frequency Band Ex Global Mobile Satellite In-Service Units by Platform Ex Global Mobile Satellite Revenues by Platform Ex Global Mobile Satellite Commercial Market Ex Global Mobile Satellite Commercial In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Global Mobile Satellite Commercial In-Service Units by Region Ex Global Mobile Satellite Commercial Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global Mobile Satellite Government Market Ex Global Mobile Satellite Government In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Global Mobile Satellite Government In-Service Units by Region Ex Global Mobile Satellite Government Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Capacity Demand by Type Ex Global MSS Capacity Revenues by Type Ex Comparison of Global MSS In-Service Units Forecasts Ex Comparison of Global MSS Retail Revenues Forecasts Ex. 5.1 Global Mobile Satellite Handheld Market Ex. 5.2 Global Mobile Satellite Handheld Market Scenarios Main Assumptions Ex. 5.3 Mobile Satellite Handheld In-Service Units by Scenario Ex. 5.5 Mobile Satellite Handheld Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex. 5.6 Mobile Satellite Handheld Retail Equipment Revenues by Region Ex. 5.7 Mobile Satellite Handheld Retail Services Revenues by Region Ex. 5.8 Mobile Satellite Handheld Wholesale Revenues by Region Ex. 5.9 Mobile Satellite Handheld Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Mobile Satellite Handheld In-Service Units by Segment Ex Mobile Satellite Handheld Revenues by Segment Ex Global Commercial Handheld Market Ex Mobile Commercial Satellite Handheld In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Mobile Commercial Satellite Handheld Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global Government Handheld Market Ex Mobile Government Satellite Handheld In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Mobile Government Satellite Handheld Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Comparison of MSS Reports Handheld In-Service Units Forecasts

13 Ex Comparison of MSS Reports Handheld Retail Revenues Forecasts Ex Comparison of MSS Reports Handheld Wholesale Revenues Ex. 6.1 Global Mobile Satellite Maritime Market Ex. 6.2 Global Maritime Mobile Satellite Market Scenarios Main Assumptions Ex. 6.3 MSS Maritime In-Service Units by Scenario Ex. 6.4 MSS Maritime In-Service Units by Region Ex. 6.5 MSS Maritime Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex. 6.6 MSS Maritime Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex. 6.7 MSS Maritime Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex. 6.8 MSS Maritime Units by Frequency Band Ex. 6.9 MSS Maritime Revenues by Frequency Band Ex MSS Maritime In-Service Units by Service Type Ex MSS Maritime Revenues by Service Type Ex Global MSS Maritime Narrowband Market Ex MSS Maritime Narrowband In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Maritime Narrowband In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Maritime Narrowband Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Maritime Narrowband Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Maritime Narrowband Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Maritime Narrowband L-Band Voice Market Ex MSS Maritime Narrowband L-Band Voice In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Maritime Narrowband L-Band Voice In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Maritime Narrowband L-Band Voice Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Maritime Narrowband L-Band Voice Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Maritime Narrowband L-Band Voice Total Retail Revenues Ex MSS Maritime Narrowband L-Band Data In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Maritime Narrowband L-Band Data In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Maritime Narrowband L-Band Data Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Maritime Narrowband L-Band Data Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Maritime Narrowband L-Band Data Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Maritime Broadband Market Ex MSS Maritime Broadband In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Maritime Broadband In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Maritime Broadband Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Maritime Broadband Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Maritime Broadband Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Maritime Broadband C-Band Market Ex MSS Maritime Broadband C-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Maritime Broadband C-Band In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Maritime Broadband C-Band Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Maritime Broadband C-Band Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Maritime Broadband C-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Maritime Broadband Ku-Band Market

14 Ex MSS Maritime Broadband Ku -Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Maritime Broadband Ku -Band In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Maritime Broadband Ku-Band Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Maritime Broadband Ku-Band Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Maritime Broadband Ku-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Maritime Broadband L-Band Market Ex MSS Maritime Broadband L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Maritime Broadband L-Band In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Maritime Broadband L-Band Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Maritime Broadband L-Band Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Maritime Broadband L-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Maritime Broadband HTS Market Ex MSS Maritime Broadband HTS In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Maritime Broadband HTS In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Maritime Broadband HTS Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Maritime Broadband HTS Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Maritime Broadband HTS Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Maritime Commercial Market Ex MSS Commercial Maritime Units by Scenario Ex MSS Commercial Maritime Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Government Maritime Market Ex MSS Government Maritime Units by Scenario Ex MSS Government Maritime Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Comparison of Global MSS Maritime In-Service Units Forecasts Ex Comparison of Global MSS Maritime Retail Revenues Forecasts Ex Comparison of Global MSS Maritime Wholesale Revenues Forecasts Ex Comparison of Global MSS Maritime Transponder Demand Forecasts Ex. 7.1 Global Mobile Satellite Aeronautical Market Ex. 7.2 Global Aeronautical Mobile Satellite Market Scenarios Main Assumptions Ex. 7.3 MSS Aeronautical In-Service Units by Scenario Ex. 7.4 MSS Aeronautical In-Service Units by Region Ex. 7.5 MSS Aeronautical Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex. 7.6 MSS Aeronautical Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex. 7.7 MSS Aeronautical Total Retail Revenues Ex. 7.8 MSS Aeronautical In-Service Units by Frequency Band Ex. 7.9 MSS Aeronautical Revenues by Frequency Band Ex MSS Aeronautical In-Service Units by Service Type Ex MSS Aeronautical Revenues by Service Type Ex Global MSS Aeronautical Narrowband Market Ex MSS Aeronautical Narrowband In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Aeronautical Narrowband In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Aeronautical Narrowband Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Aeronautical Narrowband Retail & Wholesale ARPU

15 Ex MSS Aeronautical Narrowband Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Aeronautical Broadband Market Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Aeronautical Broadband Ku-Band Market Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband Ku -Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband Ku -Band In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband Ku-Band Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband Ku-Band Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband Ku-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Aeronautical Broadband L-Band Market Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband L-Band In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband L-Band Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband L-Band Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband L-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Aeronautical Broadband HTS Market Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband HTS In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband HTS In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband HTS Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband HTS Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband HTS Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Aeronautical Commercial Market Ex MSS Commercial Aeronautical Units by Scenario Ex MSS Commercial Aeronautical Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Government Aeronautical Markets Ex MSS Government Aeronautical Units by Scenario Ex MSS Government Aeronautical Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Comparison of Global MSS Aeronautical In-Service Units Forecasts Ex Comparison of Global MSS Aeronautical Retail Revenues Forecasts Ex Comparison of Global MSS Aeronautical Wholesale Revenues Forecasts Ex Comparison of Global MSS Aeronautical Transponder Demand Forecasts Ex. 8.1 Global Mobile Satellite Land-Mobile Market Ex. 8.2 Global Land-Mobile Mobile Satellite Market Scenarios Main Assumptions Ex. 8.3 MSS Land-Mobile In-Service Units by Scenario Ex. 8.4 MSS Land-Mobile In-Service Units by Region Ex. 8.5 MSS Land-Mobile Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex. 8.6 MSS Land-Mobile Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex. 8.7 MSS Land-Mobile Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex. 8.8 MSS Land-Mobile In-Service Units by Frequency Band

16 Ex. 8.9 MSS Land-Mobile Revenues by Frequency Band Ex MSS Land-Mobile In-Service Units by Service Type Ex MSS Land-Mobile Total Retail Revenues by Service Type Ex Global MSS Land-Mobile L-Band Narrowband Market Ex MSS Land-Mobile Narrowband L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Land-Mobile Narrowband L-Band In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Land-Mobile Narrowband L=band Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Land-Mobile Narrowband L-Band Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Land-Mobile Narrowband L-Band Total Retail Revenues Ex Global MSS Land-Mobile Narrowband L-Band Voice Market Ex MSS Land-Mobile Narrowband L-Band Voice In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Land-Mobile Narrowband L-Band Voice In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Land-Mobile Narrowband L-Band Voice Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Land-Mobile Narrowband L-Band Voice Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Land-Mobile Narrowband L-Band Voice Total Retail Revenues Ex MSS Land-Mobile Narrowband Data In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Land-Mobile Narrowband Data In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Land-Mobile Narrowband Data Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Land-Mobile Narrowband Data Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Maritime Narrowband Data Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Land-Mobile Broadband Market Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Land-Mobile Broadband Ku-Band Market Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband Ku -Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband Ku -Band In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband Ku-Band Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband Ku-Band Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband Ku-Band Total Retail Revenues Ex Global MSS Land-Mobile Broadband L-Band Market Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband L-Band In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband L-Band Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband L-Band Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband L-Band Total Retail Revenues Ex Global MSS Land-Mobile Broadband HTS Market Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband HTS In-Service Units by Scenario Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband HTS In-Service Units by Region Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband HTS Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband HTS Retail & Wholesale ARPU Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband HTS Total Retail Revenues

17 Ex Global MSS Land-Mobile Commercial Market Ex MSS Commercial Land-Mobile Units by Scenario Ex MSS Commercial Land-Mobile Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Global MSS Government Land-Mobile Markets Ex MSS Government Land-Mobile Units by Scenario Ex MSS Government Land-Mobile Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Comparison of Global MSS Land-Mobile In-Service Units Forecasts Ex Comparison of Global MSS Land-Mobile Retail Revenues Forecasts Ex Comparison of Global MSS Land-Mobile Wholesale Revenues Forecasts Ex Comparison of Global MSS Land-Mobile Transponder Demand Forecasts Ex. 9.1 MSS Maritime Capacity Demand by Type Ex. 9.2 MSS Maritime Capacity Revenues by Type Ex. 9.3 MSS Maritime Broadband C-Band Transponder Demand Ex. 9.4 MSS Maritime Broadband C-Band Transponder Revenues Ex. 9.5 MSS Maritime Broadband Ku-Band Transponder Demand Ex. 9.6 MSS Maritime Broadband Ku-Band Transponder Revenues Ex. 9.7 MSS Maritime Broadband HTS Bandwidth Demand Ex. 9.8 MSS Maritime Broadband HTS Transponder Revenues Ex. 9.9 MSS Aeronautical Capacity Demand by Type Ex MSS Aeronautical Capacity Revenues by Type Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband Ku-Band Transponder Demand Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband Ku-Band Transponder Revenues Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband HTS Bandwidth Demand Ex MSS Aeronautical Broadband HTS Bandwidth Revenues Ex MSS Land-Mobile Capacity Demand by Type Ex MSS Land-Mobile Capacity Revenues by Type Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband Ku-Band Transponder Demand Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband Ku-Band Transponder Revenues Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband HTS Capacity Demand Ex MSS Land-Mobile Broadband HTS Capacity Revenues Ex. A.1 MSS Regional Definitions Ex. A.2 Calculation of NSR s Forecast Growth Factors