Practical Technology Forecasting The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Outside Plant Assets

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1 Look inside for brief descriptions of our research reports, guides, and white papers. Your Bridge to the Future Publications Each year, TFI conducts a number of special research projects and publishes the results of these projects in reports that are available to the public. In addition, we sell reference books and monographs on technology forecasting and communication technologies. Telecom & Technology Market Reports Forecasts of Access Line Compe-tition in the Local Exchange New! Depreciation Lives for Fiber Optic Cables in the Local Exchange Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Review & Update Comunications Reference Book Communication Technology Update: 8th Edition Forecasting Guides Introduction to Technology Market Forecasting The Local Exchange Network in 2015 Technology Forecasting: An Aid to Effective Technology Management Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Circuit Equipment Practical Technology Forecasting The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Outside Plant Assets White Papers The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Switching Assets Fuel Cells, A Technology Forecast New! New! Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment Better Forecasts, Better Plans, Better Results Signiture TFI paper! A description of Five Views of the Future Salvage & Cost of Removal for LEC Investments Nanotechnology: A Technology Forecast New! Telecommunications Access Technologies Testing the Tea Leaves Formal Methods for Evaluating the Validity of Forecasts Signiture TFI paper! Comparison of Economic Life Techniques Programs for Emerging Technologies Wireless vs. Wireline for Voice Services Residential Broadband Forecast Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Second Edition A Structured Approach to Technology Assessment Advanced Video Services: Analysis and Forecasts for Terrestrial Service Providers Identifying and Evaluating New Product Opportunities Computer Technology Trends: Analysis and Forecasts Opening New Markets for Existing Product Lines Depreciation Lives for Telecommunications Equipment: Review and Update Winning by Coming in Second Wireless and Cable Voice Services: Forecasts and Competitive Impacts Identifying and Evaluating New Manufacturing Processes Call toll free (800) TEK-FUTR [ ] Visit our Website at com Research Blvd., Bldg. C, Austin, Texas (800) TEK-FUTR [ ] or (512) Fax: (512) info@tfi.com

2 Telecom & Technology Market Reports Forecasts of Access Line Compe-tition in the Local Exchange 1 Depreciation Lives for Fiber Optic Cables in the Local Exchange 1 Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Review & Update 1 Forecasting Guides Introduction to Technology Market Forecasting 2 Technology Forecasting: An Aid to Effective Technology Management 2 Practical Technology Forecasting 2 Futures Features Information on TFI s free e-letter 2 Technology Futures Incorporated Description of TFI and the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group 2 Comunications Reference Book Communication Technology Update: 8th Edition 2 More Telecom & Technology Market Reports The Local Exchange Network in Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Circuit Equipment 3 The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Outside Plant Assets 3 The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Switching Assets 3 White Papers List of TFI White Papers 3 More Telecom & Technology Market Reports and Archive Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment 4 Salvage & Cost of Removal for LEC Investments 4 Telecommunications Access Technologies 4 Comparison of Economic Life Techniques 4 Wireless vs. Wireline for Voice Services 4 Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Second Edition 4 Advanced Video Services: Analysis and Forecasts for Terrestrial Service Providers 4 Computer Technology Trends: Analysis and Forecasts 5 Depreciation Lives for Telecommunications Equipment: Review and Update 5 Wireless and Cable Voice Services: Forecasts and Competitive Impacts 5 Pre-1995 reports 5 Order Form Research Blvd., Bldg. C, Austin, Texas (800) TEK-FUTR [ ] or (512) Fax: (512) info@tfi.com

3 TELECOM & TECHNOLOGY MARKET REPORTS TFI publishes in-depth research reports providing analyses and forecasts of emerging communications and telecom technologies and markets. Many of these publications were sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG).* These reports are written for decision-makers looking for the competitive edge in specific technology and market areas. Topics include many of the non-traditional telephony products and services from the broadcast, cable, computer, satellite, and wireless industries. Extended tables of contents and lists of figures are available on our website at or by contacting TFI. Forecasts of Access Line Compe- Depreciation Lives for Fiber Optic Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Review & Update tition in the Local Exchange Cables in the Local Exchange NE W! Ray L. Hodges & Competition is having a major impact on incumbent local exchange carriers. For example, after years of high growth, the number of ILEC retail narrowband switched access lines peaked at million lines in 1999 and has continuously declined since then, falling to million lines by December This report documents TFI's latest forecasts of the future of competition in the local exchange and its impact on the ILECs. Key Findings Key Findings Wireless, cable telephony, and broadband substitution is forecast to cause total ILEC narrowband switched access lines (including UNE and resale) to fall from 181 million at year-end 2002 to 100 million by year-end 2008 and to 50 million by Today s embedded standard single mode fiber cables are already obsolete for high-density, long-haul applications and may also become so in the local exchange. Broadband will make up for some, but not all, of this shortfall. Assuming that ILECs retain reasonable broadband market share, total ILEC lines (including broadband) are forecast to fall from 189 million at year-end 2002 to 135 million by year-end 2008, stabilizing at about 100 million by In the long run, maintaining a reasonable share of the broadband market will require ILECs to offer very-high-speed broadband services (nominally, 24 Mb/s and above) in the 2006 timeframe. The transition to very-high-speed broadband will require very significant investment in loop fiber, packet switches, and advanced circuit equipment between now and The combined impact of technology substitution and competition on the depreciation lives (and value) of existing ILEC narrowband switching, copper cable, and conventional circuit equipment assets will be substantial. Table of Introduction and Summary Depreciation Lives for Local Exchange Network Equipment Residential Narrowband Competition Residential Broadband Competition Non-Residential Narrowband Competition Non-Residential Broadband Competition Introduction to Technology Market Forecasting Forecast Details Derivation of Historical Data. This report addresses the economic life of single-mode fiber optic cable installed by incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) in the local exchange network. The depreciation lives of these cables are derived from analysis of demand, technology substitution, physical mortality, and competitive factors. The technology and competitive issues driving network changes are explained in detail. There are three types of advanced fibers available today that have significant advantages when CWDM or DWDM are utilized. TFI forecasts that approximately 95% of U.S. households will be online by 2020, and almost all of these will be broadband users. Presently, there is very little fiber in the distribution plant. The timing of placing distribution is late enough that, in all likelihood, it will be advanced fiber. With long-haul fiber and newly placed distribution fiber using advanced fiber, a bottleneck will be created in the middle of the network that contains the most outdated single-mode fiber. TFI forecasts that, by 2010, ILECs will provision one-third fewer access lines than today, and that, by 2015, less than half as many. Competition will strand large quantities of network equipment including fiber cables, reducing the economic life. TFI continues to recommend a projection life of 15 to 20 years for non-metallic cable. Table of Introduction & Executive Summary Mortality Analysis Competitive Factors Technology Obsolescence Demand-Driven Substitution Technology-Driven Substitution Conclusions Forecasting Methods. & Ray L. Hodges This report reviews recent TFI forecasts for the North American local exchange network, covering switching, circuit equipment, and outside plant. The TFI forecasts provide a reasoned, realistic view of the technological and competitive changes occurring in the communications industry. The report includes TFI s latest recommendations on depreciation lives for local exchange telephone plant, accounting for technology displacement and loss of access lines due to competition. Key Findings Technology change, competition, and the growth of the Internet are having major impacts on the local exchange network. The local exchange telecommunications industry has begun the transition from a narrowband network of circuit switches and copper cables to a broadband network of packet switches and fiber optics. This transition will largely be complete between 2015 and Competition has arrived in the local exchange. Competitive LECs (CLECs) have captured over 10% of the access line market. Residential and small businesses are abandoning second lines for cable modems and DSL (digital subscriber line), while wireless and cable telephony are displacing wireline usage and access lines. Depreciation lives that fully take into account technology change and competition are generally consistent with those used by ILECs for financial reporting and somewhat less than lives often prescribed by regulators. This difference is primarily explained by the overreliance of traditional depreciation methods on accounting retirements. Table of Introduction Technological Change Competition Forecasting Methods Switching Equipment Circuit Equipment Metallic Cable Non-Metallic Cable Introduction to Technology Market Forecasting. $495, December 2003, 180 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG (see page 3) $495, February 2003, 72 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG (see page 3) $495, January 2003, 130 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG (see page 3) ISBN ISBN ISBN

4 TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING GUIDES TFI offers educational publications and monographs on forecasting techniques and methodologies can be used to address practical business problems in technology management, finance, marketing, and strategic planning. Introduction to Technology Market Forecasting & John H. Vanston This monograph, written by leading technology forecasters, updates Ralph C. Lenz s monograph, Rates of Adoption/Substitution in Technological Change. This revision includes discussion and examples of several substitution models including the Fisher-Pry and Gompertz models. Introduction to Technology Market Forecasting Processes and Patterns of Technology Adoption The Process of Technological Substitution The Process of Diffusion The Process of Mortality Mathematical Models for the Adoption of New Technology Using Technology Market Models for Forecasting Experience with Forecasting with Substitution Models $25, 1996, 27 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG ISBN (See below right for information and a list of TTFG member companies.) Technology Forecasting: An Aid to Effective Technology Management John H. Vanston This guide details technology forecasting techniques that will contribute to better decision making, and will provide assistance for organizations to improve planning, operations, and marketing. $45, 1994, 1988, 59 pages, Softcover ISBN COMMUNICATIONS REFERENCE Celebrating its 10 year anniversary, this publication is an excellent source of information on the latest developments, trends, and issues in communications technology. It has become an indispensable resource for business, government, and academia. Communication Technology Update 8th Edition August E. Grant & Jennifer H. Meadows, Editors You re already an expert in your own field; what you need is a resource to help you keep up with what everyone else is doing. There is no other source (book, periodical, or website) that provides a better comprehensive overview of the history, latest developments, and current status of virtually every major communication technology. Revenues, user statistics, and other relevant data are included in most chapters to help you evaluate and compare technologies. Introduction: The Umbrella Perspective on Communication Technology Communication Technology Timeline Electronic Mass Media: Cable Television Pay Television Services Interactive Television Direct Broadcast Satellites Digital Television Streaming Media Radio Broadcasting Computers & Consumer Electronics: Multimedia Computers Video Games The Internet & the World Wide Web Internet Commerce Office Technologies Virtual & Augmented Reality Home Video Digital Audio Telephony & Satellite Technologies: Local & Long Distance Telephony Broadband Networks Home Networks Satellite Communications Distance Learning Wireless Telephony Teleconferencing Conclusions: Retrospective: 10 Years of Communications Technology $50, August 2002, 364 pages, Softcover ISBN Published by Butterworth-Heinemann Practical Technology Forecasting James R. Bright Technology forecasting describes a group of techniques that predict, in quantifiable terms, the direction, character, rate, implication, and impact of technical advance. People interested in the methodologies of technology forecasting will find this text indispensable. It provides an excellent introduction and overview of most of the methods currently in use. $25, 1978, 110 pages, Softcover ISBN FUTURES FEATURES Futures Features is TFI s free e-letter providing clients and contacts with current TFI technology forecasts, technology management insights, announcements of new publications, interesting articles, and services. If you are interested in receiving our e-letter, please send us an at info@tfi.com, call us at (800) or (512) , or fill out the contact sheet on our website: TFI helps organizations plan for the future. Since 1978, we have been conducting technology and market forecasts. As a result, we have developed an extensive toolkit of proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, we work with leading technology and industrial companies to provide a forward-looking vantage point for making sustainable business decisions. *TTFG: TFI has been the primary contractor for the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG) since its inception in TTFG was established to promote the understanding and use of forecasting to predict and support the continuing evolution of the public telecommunications network. Some of the research reports listed in this catalog were commissioned by this industry consortium to quantify the demand for new telecom services and the impact on the public telecommunications network. TTFG member companies are: Bell Canada BellSouth Telecommunications Qwest SBC Communications Sprint Verizon To qualify for TTFG prices, you must work on the regulated side of one of the member companies listed above or one of the telecommunications regulatory agencies. Call for TTFG prices. 2

5 TELECOM & TECHNOLOGY MARKET REPORTS The Local Exchange Network in 2015 This is a forecast of the North American local exchange network at the end of 2015, viewed from the perspective of It is based on published and unpublished forecasts by Technology Futures, Inc. Key Findings The typical household subscribes to broadband service at 24 Mb/s to 100 Mb/s. Medium and large businesses access the network directly with fiber at data rates from 2.4 Gb/s to 40 Gb/s. Fiber dominates the outside plant, comprising 100% of the interoffice network, 97% of the feeder network, and 95% of the distribution network. Switching is 100% packet-based on ATM and IP switches. Almost 70% of North American households no longer have a standard wireline connection and use wireless or computer telephony instead. The interoffice network is entirely fiber, with dense wave division multiplexing used on most routes. Of the $355 billion of network investment in place in 2001, well under 10% is still in use in Residential Customers Business Customers The Local Exchange Network: General Architecture, The Outside Plant, Baseband Copper, Circuit Equipment, Switching Equipment Summary Free PDF version available on the TFI website. Printed copy $25, December 2001, 28 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG* ISBN The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Outside Plant Assets This study presents our forecasts of the impact of new technology and competition on local exchange outside plant assets. Specifically, we forecast the substitution of fiber for copper in the local loop, the adoption of broadband Internet access as a driver for fiber adoption, and the impact of competition from wireless, cable, and other services on ILEC revenues. The study provides reasoned, quantitative information about the likely pace of change. Although these forecasts have implications for many types of decisions, the primary focus is on the management of capital, especially as it relates to depreciation and valuation. The result is a projection of the economic obsolescence of the ILECs metallic outside plant. Forecasts for Fiber in the Feeder Network Forecasts for Distribution Fiber Depreciation of Metallic Cable Forecasts for Internet Access Forecasts for Local Competition $495, June 2001, 145 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG* ISBN *See page 3 for information about TTFG and a list of member companies. Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Circuit Equipment Ray L. Hodges This report provides an update and comparison to earlier forecasts conducted by Technology Futures, and describes and quantifies the impact of new technologies such as xdsl and dense wave division multiplexing. Circuit equipment investment is growing over 10% per year, while telephone plant in service is growing less than 5% since more functionality is being booked to the circuit category. This report forecasts the transitions and quantifies the rate of obsolescence of the significant and growing embedded investment in circuit equipment. Circuit Overview Analog to Digital SONET for Pre-SONET VDSL & FITL for DSL Advanced Optical Networks Investment Mapping & Life Calculations Survey Description & Results $495, October 2001, 67 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG* ISBN The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Switching Assets This study estimates the impact of competition on narrowband local exchange switches, especially as it relates to obsolescence and depreciation lives. The study addresses access line competition from wireless, resellers, cable companies, and other full-service providers. It also addresses the displacement of voice usage by wireless and e-communications. The impact of these forces on ILEC switches is forecast for both voice and data. Finally, the forecasts are combined with previous forecasts of switching technologies, including the adoption of ATM/IP switching, to provide estimated depreciation lives. Forecasts for Voice Access Forecasts for Data Access Forecasts of Usage per Access Line Combined Usage and Access Line Forecasts Impacts on ILEC Narrowband Switching Assets $495, October 2000, 70 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG* ISBN TFI WHITE PAPERS Written by members of our distinguished staff of experts, these papers provide interesting perspectives on technology and telecom issues, as well as examples of actual forecasting projects. These are available at no charge online at or by calling TFI. White Papers Fuel Cells, A Technology Forecast New! New! Nanotechnology: A Technology Forecast New! Better Forecasts, Better Plans, Better Results (A description of Five Views of the Future ) Signiture TFI paper! Testing the Tea Leaves Formal Methods for Evaluating the Validity of Forecasts Signiture TFI paper! Programs for Emerging Technologies Residential Broadband Forecast A Structured Approach to Technology Assessment Identifying and Evaluating New Product Opportunities Identifying and Evaluating New Manufacturing Processes Opening New Markets for Existing Product Lines Winning by Coming in Second 3

6 MORE TELECOM & TECHNOLOGY MARKET REPORTS Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment Ray L. Hodges & This report addresses issues related to ATM/IP packet switching and its impact on the embedded digital circuit switches of incumbent LECs. It includes a technology description and assessment of optical switching and provides comparisons to earlier TFI forecasts conducted in 1986, 1989, 1992, 1994, and 1997, which were remarkably accurate in identifying the technology substitutions and predicting the pace of change. By 2010, the LECs will have converted 90% of switch capacity to ATM. ILECs must move toward a packet network in order to accommodate the explosive growth in data traffic. Switching Technology LEC Transition Strategies Forecasts for Digital Switching and ATM/IP The Adoption of Packet Switching $495, March 2000, 84 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG* ISBN X Salvage and Cost of Removal for LEC Investments Ray L. Hodges This review of salvage and cost of removal factors for local exchange carriers analyzes salvage trends and issues for computers, circuit switching, and outside plant investments, including non-metallic cable, poles, and conduit. It provides an identification and assessment of potential changes in salvage and cost of removal factors due to current and future technology trends. Although the future net salvage (FNS) may be near 0% for most telephone companies, it is still important to determine the correct FNS by account since many of today s prices are cost-based for unbundled elements. The report is designed to support LEC regulatory filings, financial decisions, and auditor reviews. Description Salvage Overview Account Analysis Conclusions $495, March 2000, 98 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG* ISBN TFI ARCHIVE: Older and superseded telecom & technology market reports that may be of interest to our readers. Telecommunications Access Technologies: Overview and Competitive Assessment Ray L. Hodges This report provides an overview of the competitive access technologies that will impact the local exchange network. Each chapter outlines the state of each technology, the key application areas and special strengths, weaknesses and limitations, key providers and users, market size, and forecasts of the technology adoption. Includes forecasts for analog, cellular, digital cellular/pcs, 2.5 and 3rd generation wireless, cable modems, cable voice, fiber-based CLECs, MMDS, LMDS, VSATs, and two generations of LEOs. The Telecom Landscape Traditional Wireline Telephone Network Terrestrial Wireless Cable Networks Fiber-Based Competitors Satellites $45, March 1999, 115 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG* ISBN Comparison of Economic Life Techniques Stephen L. Barreca The purpose of this study is to assess and document the effectiveness of commonly-used life analysis techniques traditional mortality, substitution, and combined obsolescence. To evaluate the accuracy of these models, three case studies of telecom network equipment are presented. The studies use mortality experience compiled from over 74 state jurisdictions, involving hundreds of thousands of units of property. Additionally, actual technological performance data, collected from the entire U.S. telecom industry are used to document the pace of technological change. Introduction and Study Methodology Case Study Electromechanical Switching (EM) Case Study IOF Underground Metallic Cable Case Study Analog Stored Program Control Switching Equipment $45, May 1999, 85 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG* ISBN *See page 3 for information about TTFG and a list of member companies. Wireless vs. Wireline for Voice Services: Forecasts and Impacts Ray L. Hodges & The authors analyze the competitive threat to the LECs from the emerging wireless alternative for voice communications. The competitive impacts are reported in terms of a variety of variables, for example, access lines lost and message and non-message revenue lost. The average remaining life (ARL) of the LEC copper distribution infrastructure is also measured. The ARLs include not only the effects due to competition, but also the effect of the LEC transition to fiber. Introduction and Summary Cellular/PCS Forecasts Competitive Impacts on the Wireline Network Impacts of Wireline Cash Flows on Depreciation Lives $45, April 1998, 50 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG* ISBN Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Analyses and Forecasts of Technology Change,, Ray L. Hodges & Adrian J. Poitras This second edition of Transforming the Local Exchange Network provides TFI s forecasts of the adoption of key infrastructure technologies by local exchange carriers in North America. Quantitative data and forecasts, and methodological details are included. $45, August 1997, 270 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG* ISBN Advanced Video Services: Analysis and Forecasts for Terrestrial Service Providers, Curt Rogers, & Ray L. Hodges This report forecasts likely technology adoption strategies of the local telephone companies and assesses of the impact on their existing networks. $45, 1996, 132 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG* ISBN

7 MORE TFI ARCHIVE: Older and superseded telecom & technology market reports that may be of interest to our readers. Computer Technology Trends: Analysis & Forecasts Adrian J. Poitras & Ray L. Hodges This insightful report focuses on the effects of technical progress in computers, along with continually expanding requirements and utiltity. Also covered is the rapid obsolescence and replacement of both existing and new computer assets and related equipment. $45, 1996, 63 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG* ISBN Depreciation Lives for Telecommunications Equipment: Review and Update & Ray L. Hodges This report updates the calculations for depreciation lives and summarizes the results of TFI s 1994 research report, Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Analyses and Forecasts of Technology Change. $45, 1995, 51 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG* Wireless and Cable Voice Services & Curt Rogers This report addresses the magnitude and timing of the impact of wireless and cable competition on the LEC s wireline voice services. The authors analyze the impacts and forecast subscribers and prices for wireless and cable voice services. $45, 1995, 75 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG* Archive Pre-1995 reports*: Transforming the Local Exchange Network (1994 Edition) $45 Personal Communications $45, 1993 Telecom for Television/Advanced Television $45, 1992 Video Communications $45, 1992 Local Area Network Interconnection $45, 1992 Interactive Multimedia & Telecommunications $45, 1992 A Facsimile of the Future $45, 1991 *Sponsored by the TTFG. See page 3 for information about TTFG and a list of member companies. For more information or to order publications contact:: TECHNOLOGY FUTURES, INC Research Boulevard, Building C Austin, TX U.S.A. (800) TEK-FUTR [ ] or (512) Fax: (512) info@tfi.com Brochure Copyrighted 2004, Technology Futures, Inc. TFI is MOBIS certified Contract #GS-10F TFI PUBLICATION ORDER FORM I would like to order the following publication(s): TITLE OF PUBLICATION Price Qty. Total* Technology and Telecom Market Reports Forecasts of Access Line Competition in the Local Exchange (December 2003) $495 Depreciation Lives for Fiber Optic Cables in the Local Exchange (February 2003) $495 Transforming the LEN (January 2003) $495 The Local Exchange Network in 2015 (December 2001) $25 (Free download is available on the TFI website) Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Circuit Equipment (October 2001) $495 The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Outside Plant Assets (May 2001) $495 The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Switching Assets (2000) $495 Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment (2000) $495 Salvage & Cost of Removal for LEC Investments (2000) $495 Archive Technology and Telecom Market Reports Telecommunications Access Technologies (1999) $45 Comparison of Economic Life Techniques (1999) $45 Wireless vs. Wireline for Voice Services (1998) $45 Transforming the LEN: Second Edition (1997) $45 Advanced Video Services: Analysis and Forecasts for Terrestrial Service Providers (1996) $45 Computer Technology Trends: Analysis & Forecasts (1996) $45 Depreciation Lives for Telecommunications Equipment: Review and Update (1995) $45 Wireless and Cable Voice Services: Forecasts and Competitive Impacts (1995) $45 Pre-1995 Archive Please write title(s) and price below Communications Reference Book Communication Technology Update: 8th Edition (2002) $50 Technology Forecasting Guides Introduction to Technology Market Forecasting (1996) $25 Technology Forecasting: An Aid to Effective Technology Management (1995) $45 Practical Technology Forecasting (1978) $25 TFI White Papers Please write title of white paper(s) below (or visit our website) Shipping and Handling for Outside North America: (S&H included in publication price for North America shipments) Communications Technology Update (per book) $25 Transforming the Local Exchange Network, 2nd Edition (per book) $25 All other publications (per book) $15 Tax: Texas Residents, Add 7.25% (Austin, TX 8.25%) Sales Tax TOTAL Name Company Address City Zip/P.C. Telephone Fax Check Enclosed (Make payable in U.S. Dollars to Technology Futures, Inc.) VISA MC AMEX Invoice Me P.O.# Credit Card Number - Exp. Date (Month/Year) Cardholder Signature *Prices are subject to change without notice. Contact TFI about volume discounts. Sponsored by the TTFG. See page 2 for information on the TTFG. Call for TTFG prices. Title State/Prov. Country 5

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