TFI Broadband Forecast Update
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1 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 1 TFI Broadband Forecast Update Lawrence Vanston, Ph.D. President, Technology Futures, Inc. lvanston@tfi.com Research Blvd., Bldg. C-1 Austin, Texas (512) TFI Communications Technology Asset Valuation Conference January 24-25, 2013 Marriott Courtyard Downtown Austin, Texas Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 2
2 2011 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 3 Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate ds Percentage of Househol All Broadband Households 6 Mb/s 1.5 Mb/s 24 Mb/s 100 Mb/s & Above 50 Mb/s Data Source: FCC. Speeds are based on DSL & FTTL data. Data excludes mobile wireless broadband 2011b Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 4
3 Trend in Residential Access Data Rates Nominal Data Rate (Mb/s) Broadband Analog Modems Performance Increases 4 times every 4 years (42% annually) Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 5 vs Subscribers Pct of Household ds Very- High-Speed Broadband Subscribers Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 6
4 VHS Broadband Deployment Percentage of Household ds 10 All ILECS Early Late Middle Fiber 2011 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 7 VHS Broadband and Deployment Pe ercentage of Households All Middle Scenario VHS Broadband Fibe er 2011 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 8
5 VHS Broadband Deployment by Type lds Percentage of Househol All Middle Scenario Industry FTTP FTTN Fiber 2011 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 9 VHS Broadband Deployment by Type (Late 2012 View) Pe ercentage of Households All Middle Scenario Industry FTTP FTTN Fiber Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 10
6 r VHS Broadband Deployment, AT&T s Recently-Announced Velocity IP Plan rcentage of Housing Units Per All AT&T U-Verse Middle Scenario + IPDSLAM AT&T U-Verse FTTN Fiber Note: Percentages are slightly different than quoted by AT&T because this chart uses 55M housing units instead of 57M customer locations used by AT&T. Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 11 Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate (excluding Cable Modems) ds Percentage of Househol All Broadband Households 6 Mb/s 1.5 Mb/s 24 Mb/s 100 Mb/s & Above 50 Mb/s Data Source: FCC. Speeds are based on DSL & FTTL data. Data excludes mobile wireless broadband 2012 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 12
7 Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate (including Cable Modems) Percentage of Household ds All Broadband Households 1.5 Mb/s 6 Mb/s 100 Mb/s & Above 24 Mb/s 50 Mb/s Data Source: FCC. Data excludes mobile wireless broadband Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 13 vs Subscribers (including Cable Modems) 10 Percentage of Household ds Standard Broadband VHS Broadband Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 14
8 Very Highspeed Broadband Subscribers (Telco vs All) Pct of Households All Telco Very- High-Speed Broadband Subscribers 2025 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 15 Very Highspeed Broadband Minimal (based on Telco vs All) Pct of Households 10 7 Based on All Subs Based on Telco Subs 3 Very High-Speed Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 16
9 r 100 Mb/s Minimal (based on Telco vs All) Pct of Households 10 Based on All Subs 7 Based on Telco Subs 100 Mb/s and 3 Above Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 17 ILEC VHS Broadband Deployment vs Min (based on all providers) Pe ercentage of Households VHS Broadband FTTP FTTN 100 Mb/s & Above All Middle Scenario Fibe Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 18
10 (512) Your Bridge to the Future Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 19
Copyright 2015, Technology Futures, Inc. 1
Copyright 2015, Technology Futures, Inc. 1 Broadband Access in America: Status, Forecasts, and Politics Lawrence Vanston, Ph.D. President, Technology Futures, Inc. lvanston@tfi.com International Institute
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